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One lunatic's "Keys To The [rest of the] ALCS!"

     I worked this out coming home from work last night, turned on the game (on the radio -- despite Joe Morgan's color "analysis," I'll take Jon Miller's descriptions over a FOX TV broadcast any day of the week) and almost immediately heard Pods getting caught stealing.  So now that it's too late for me to look like a game 1 prophet, probably the rest of the series will go exactly against my expectations.  Even so....

Star-divide

     1. For the White Sox to win, Pods must stay out of outs (this also applies to the other "basestealers" on the team, to say nothing of Pierzinsky, but first batters first).  This isn't the same as the common wisdom that he must get on base (to disrupt the opponent and/or advance around the basepaths with his Mad Basestealing Skillz) -- yes, he needs to get on base, but it's much more important for him to stay on base (until he scores or someone else ends the inning) than for him to steal bases, "make things happen," or otherwise play "smart ball."  Pods has stolen about a million bases this year, but he's also been thrown out about half a million times, and the White Sox can't afford for their leadoff hitter to turn into an out any more often than he already does at the plate.  Pods can be a legitimate threat on the basepaths when Michael Barrett is trying to throw him out, but when Bengie Molina's the backstop, Pods and his teammates need to be content with the bases they have.  There may be times in the series when a steal would be very valuable and Pods can get a great jump; I'm not saying that the steal should be completely removed from the White Sox's game ... but it's not the real reason they won so many games this season, and they need to realize that actually good opportunities to steal a base will be rare.
     2. The 'pens:  Anaheim's bullpen is far more vulnerable than it looks, especially after the grind of the Yankees series.  If the Sox can be patient enough at the plate against starters and bullpen alike, they'll have a much better chance of winning the series.  It's possible the same can be said of the White Sox 'pen -- I suspect its overall numbers are strongly improved by the starters' excellent work, which allowed the relievers to a) stay rested, and b) chalk up a bullpen ERA consisting primarily of work by their best relievers (you don't use a long man when your starter goes 7 strong).  The Chicago starters are still excellent though, and the Angels are not a terribly patient team, so this shouldn't work against the White Sox in this series.  On the other hand, if the Sox aren't patient themselves (or if they save the Angels a bunch of pitches by making "smartball" outs on the basepaths) Anaheim's vaunted bullpen really will give them fits.
     3. Game 2:  The White Sox should win tonight, and I'm going to go ahead and predict they will.  If they can also force Scioscia to over-extend his bullpen, they'll have a very good chance of taking the series in the end.  If they get the win but Washburn(?) throws a complete game loss or the Sox take a big early lead but don't manage to chase Gregg and Yan before the 8th, the Angels will be in pretty good shape going into Anaheim.  On the other side, if the White Sox manage to lose game 2, I'm going to go ahead and declare their season over.
     4. Game 5:  I'd say "if necessary," but I'm predicting the Sox take at least game 2, and I think there's a good chance they'll be 2-2 after four.  Regardless of where the series stands at that point, the White Sox need to win Game 5, if only because it should be their best single-game matchup after tonight.  The Angels will start either Byrd again -- in which case the Sox had better solve him, since he's the worst starter on the Anaheim staff -- or tonight's starter on short rest; if he goes long tonight, he shouldn't be able to on Sunday, and if he's pulled early tonight and the Sox have done what they need to do in games 3&4, the Angels' bullpen will be running on fumes.
     So what do you think?  What have I missed?  Do you even care?  Is it apparent that I'm a Chicago fan in this series even though the team is not the Cubs?  Should I therefore be forbidden to post a diary ever again?

Poll
What's the /real/ key to the ALCS?
Which team's fans remember to use their lucky pencils
6 votes
Pods and company (not) running into outs
2 votes
Angels' starters (not) going long enough to restore their bullpen
1 votes
Sox (not) taking advantage of Angels' tired players and depleted (i.e. no Colon) pitching staff
0 votes
Who cares?! It's not the Cubs!!!
3 votes
Smart Ball(TM)
0 votes
Playoff Experience(TM) and Veteran Savvy(TM)
0 votes
Drawing walks and hitting homeruns
0 votes
Keeping Pods or Figgins off the bases
0 votes
High socks or low socks
0 votes

12 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

0 recs | Comment 9 comments

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If...
Sox lose tonight, they don't play again at US Comiskey until April.

They win tonight, they better also burn at least three Angel arms in the pen.  The day off tomorrow is huge.

Best bet would be to win AND have the Angels burn K-Rod.

I can't see it.  Sox win tonight, but lose in 5.

by Ivychat on Oct 12, 2005 4:28 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Chuck and I...
... agree AGAIN!!

The Sox MUST win tonight or risk getting swept. Even if they do win, they could lose in 5 without ever returning home.

And they'd better use those lucky pencils too.

by Al on Oct 12, 2005 4:32 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Perhaps...
...but I don't think there's any way the Sox lose three straight in Anaheim.  If they win tonight, they'll probably play at home again, but I agree with the rest of Chuck's assessment -- they need to burn multiple Angel bullpen arms if they're going to have a real chance of winning the series ... and I don't see them pulling that off.  All of that said, if they win tonight, they're looking at a best-of-five series, and anything can happen in a five game set.

by Loon from Left on Oct 12, 2005 5:00 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think..
they can lose three straight either, but they can lose two for sure.  First of all, the White Sox have never played well in the west.  Jon Garland I believe lost his first game this year to the Angels in Anaheim, even though everyone says he will pitch well because he is from SoCal.  Freddy Garcia didn't look too good at Fenway and he still seems to have traces of his  slump.  
Cubbie blue always sPaRkLeS in my eyes.

by sparkles721 on Oct 12, 2005 5:20 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I just read this ...
"(Sox) lose in 5" - Ivychat

"The Sox MUST win (game 2) or risk getting swept. Even if they do win, they could lose in 5 without ever returning home." - Al

Every Sox starter has done exceptionally in the first 4 games.  IF Contreras continues the trend, the Sox return home after 5 games.

by DrCrawdad on Oct 16, 2005 12:56 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well...
... I was more right, anyway.

Had the Sox lost that game two, the entire fabric of the series would have been different.

I think the disputed play that eventually led to the White Sox game 2 victory, took all the starch out of the Angels. They have looked like a team that didn't even want to be there the last two nights.

by Al on Oct 16, 2005 4:40 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Chicken or egg?
Have the Angels not played well, or is it that the Sox starters have dominated them thus far?

Seeing as how the starters did virtually the same to Boston's offense, I'd say the Angels look uninspired because of the Sox pitching.  Not to be overlooked is the fact that the Sox offense had taken the Angels crowds out of the games by scoring early.

I want the Sox to wrap it up today.  However, I won't count the Angels out until they're completely done.

by DrCrawdad on Oct 16, 2005 7:51 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If they do...
they lose Game 1 of the World Series.
Cubbie blue always sPaRkLeS in my eyes.

by sparkles721 on Oct 16, 2005 10:54 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sox have played exceptionally well
     They actually (more or less) hit all my "keys to the series" -- even Pods worked the count and took some important walks!  You have to give some of the credit to injuries:  No Colon to shut down the White Sox offense, B. Molina suddenly making poor throws after aggravating his elbow on check swings, and Vlad ... well, he looks like he's playing hurt.  But the Sox's four aces have been making their opponents (apart from the ultra-patient A's) look bad all year -- free-swinging Vlad the Impaler can be beaten and the Sox found a way -- even Colon couldn't have outdueled the likes of Buehrle, and when runners get the kinds of jumps the Sox did later in the series, it would take a miracle for Molina or anyone else to throw him out.  I loved the quadruple complete game; I thought changing the "blown call" in game 2 would just have meant a 10-11 inning complete game for Buehrle and a Sox win, destroying Anaheim's bullpen entirely; and I loved the back-end sweep.  I don't know if I can pull for the White Sox in the World Series, but they've got another pennant, they deserved it, and (after the latest crop of Cardinals injuries) they may be the best team still playing.  It should be a hard-fought World Series, which is to say lots of fun.  And once again, congrats on the pennant!  May the Cubs win a championship next.

by Loon from Left on Oct 17, 2005 3:04 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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