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Go Figure

Weren't we just talking about this the other day?

I'll say it again:

Any time anyone tells you they've got this game figured out, laugh in their faces.

The Vegas sports books must have taken a bath today on this one -- perhaps the best pitcher in the AL, trying to become the first ten-game winner, against a guy with no wins and an ERA near seven.

The Cubs shut out the Blue Jays 2-0 this afternoon, but that's not the real story... the real story, of course, is the guy with the painted-on goatee, Sergio Mitre. He dropped his ERA by two full runs, from 6.88 to 4.88, and picked up his first win of the year.

Just how dominant was he?

  • he retired the first thirteen batters he faced;
  • he had fifteen outs on ground balls, and, further...
  • except for Reed Johnson's line-drive single to right-center in the sixth, no one hit the ball out of the infield. The other hit was a grounder to third that Aaron Hill just barely beat out; there was one walk and the other six outs, of the twenty-one that Mitre retired, were strikeouts.
Not even Carlos Zambrano's two one-hit performances this year were quite as dominant.

Oh, and for good measure Mitre doubled in the only run he'd need, after another double by Todd Hollandsworth. Then Corey Patterson singled in Mitre for the second and last run.

Talk about the downtrodden rising up.

Jeff, Howard and I spent the day with Kurt Evans of Cub Fan Nation and Goat Riders Of The Apocalypse and his girlfriend Carolyn, who made the trip in from, of all places, Toronto, where they now live.

Kurt's a perfect example of the first generation that grew up watching the Cubs on cable on WGN, back in the day when you could watch 140 or more games a year. He grew up in western New York state. He's never lived in Chicago. And yet, he's just as devoted a Cub fan as those of us who live within shouting distance of the ballpark. His blog name (wish I had thought of it first!) is a perfect example of what we are -- yes, we are a nation. We're everywhere.

As he mentioned over at Goat Riders, he brought the Zambran-O-Meter sign with him -- this was invented when Z, in a silly moment, said the Cubs would win 120 games this year.

Better get on the stick on that, right, Z? Anyway, the sign shows Z with his laser heat-ray eyes heating up a thermometer-like object which now registers 31 wins. It looks very much like this, in fact:


(It now also says: co-sponsored by www.bleedcubbieblue.com.)

Kurt left it with me and I'll do my best to update it and display it in the bleachers on appropriate occasions. Kurt and Carolyn also brought a sign reading "M-V-Lee", which they'll be showing off in section 237 on Friday. If you see them there, take one of the BCB cards I gave to them to distribute.

I knew it'd be a good day today when I managed to squeeze my car into a parking space that was almost exactly the same length as the car itself. Even better, after the game when I returned, the car behind me had left, making it easy to get out.

You're probably wondering why I'm not saying that much more about the game -- well, there's really not that much more to tell. It was hot and sticky, and we watched towering thunderstorm clouds build up all afternoon and then miss the ballpark to the north and east, and if Ryan Dempster hadn't issued a walk and given up a single in the ninth, the game would have been even faster than the speedy two hours and fifteen minutes it took.

In twelve relief appearances covering thirteen innings, including today, Dempster has allowed 11 hits, three walks, four runs (only two in the last 11 of those appearances), has struck out ten, blown one save (got the win that day in extra innings), and saved seven.

Ladies and gentlemen, I believe we have found ourselves a closer. The biggest worry about Dempster was his propensity to give up too many walks, but this hasn't been an issue at all. Today's base on balls was the first one he's given up in his last eight appearances.

Thus, the somewhat curious Phillies-Tigers trade today, in which the Tigers received Placido Polanco (good! this means the Cubs won't get him!) and gave up to Philly Ugueth Urbina, means the Cubs won't necessarily run out and grab Billy Wagner, if the Phillies are even considering putting him on the market. Incidentally, ex-Cub Ramon Martinez also went to the Phillies in this deal.

Which leads me to a trade I might consider pursuing, if I'm Jim Hendry. Even after Corey Patterson's RBI single today (the rest of his at-bats were the usual -- two swinging strikeouts and a weak groundout), I'd still consider trading him, and getting a stopgap till Felix Pie is ready (ETA, in my opinion, no earlier than 2007).

Think outside the box for a moment. The Reds are probably about to have a fire sale. You'd have to give up too much to get Adam Dunn. How about Ken Griffey Jr.?

No, I'm serious. He's healthy -- has played in 52 of the Reds' 57 games -- is hitting well (9 HR, 38 RBI, pretty good considering the rest of the Reds' offense), and can still play a good center field. The Cubs could probably get him without having to give up anybody of any import -- well, I suppose they'd have to send Patterson in return, but isn't that the point? -- as long as they assumed the contract.

Yes, I know Griffey's brittle. Yes, I know the contract calls for payments till the year 2176 or something like that.

But this would be a bold statement, a bold move, something that says, YES, we want to win now -- and right there you've got a guy who could step in to the #3 slot in the batting order. He could play CF this year and next, then slide over to LF for the year or two after that when Pie is ready.

Opinions welcome.

Finally, there were two guys at the game last night who I forgot to mention -- sitting in the front row waving a Canadian flag. I think they were confused -- one of them was wearing an Expos cap.

Anyway, Jeff said they spotted the two of them driving by the park before the gates opened in an RV, waving brooms out the window. Tim from LF yelled at them, "Good luck parking that thing!"

They weren't seen in the bleachers today, so maybe they've been driving around the city looking for parking. Say, in case you guys are reading this: your team lost and they wouldn't have let you bring the brooms in.

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No to Griffey. We already have one horribly brittle guy in the lineup (or not) in Nomar. Plus, he can't hit leadoff.

I really like the idea of Juan Pierre. He is a bit of a problem child for the Marlins right now and a change of space might do him good. However, he does hack at absolutely everything and his OBP is horrible, but still better than Corey's. Still, the Marlins have a leadoff guy in Castillo and might not be afraid to make this deal for a power guy. To me, this is a perfect trade.

However, there is the "Lou Brock Factor," that is the fear that the moment Patterson is traded he will figure things out and become a superstar. That is just a chance you have to take.

Hey Corey, go be potentially good somewhere else.

by Ross on Jun 8, 2005 5:50 PM CDT reply actions  

Pierre...
I dunno. He's had good OBAs in the past. He would be a decent leadoff man.

I wouldn't worry about the "Lou Brock Factor". Brock was miscast by the Cubs. Patterson's propensities are well known. I can't imagine him becoming any better anywhere else.

You say, Hey Corey, go be potentially good somewhere else.

I say, yup.

by Al Yellon on Jun 8, 2005 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

Pierre would be a great fit...
but isn't he aleady a great fit in Florida? I don't see how this is the perfect trade, if perfect means both teams fill needs. The Marlins don't need Corey. we need a guy like Pierre. Perhaps if we send them something else, like one of our slugging first basemen and a replacement lead-off hitter (Hairston perhaps?), they would do this... but not for Corey straight up. Doparik and Hairston for Pierre and something else (don't know the Marlins system well enough here), with either Corey or Pierre moving to LF sounds more likely to me.
The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jun 8, 2005 5:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

No, not Dopirak
No, not Dopirak. He's got a huge upside. He could even be our very own Derrek Lee.
Michael Wuertz cheerleader.

by Carlos on Jun 8, 2005 8:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

So...
You don't want to trade Dopriak because he could be Derrek Lee in 3 years?  What are you planning to do with Derrek himself in three years?

Trade Dop for the right deal.

by Ivychat on Jun 9, 2005 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

I saw Dopirak play in spring training...
... he appears to be the real deal as a hitter.

But, he is clearly a one-dimensional player, and he hasn't progressed that well this year so far.

If he could bring a good major league player in return, I say, yes, deal him.

by Al Yellon on Jun 9, 2005 9:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

Well, I...
Well, I could never see the Cubs signing Lee to a contract extension similar to what's been the trend in the last few years (5 to 8 years @ 8-9 million p/y.) but, what if Dopirak turns out to be Thome? What if he starts working on his fielding and becomes a better player? His speed will never be there, unfortunately -- my point is that I'd rather take Lee for a couple more years (his current contract ends in 2006; pick him up for 2007 @ 12 million, of course move around that amount based on performance and games played, with an option for 2008.) until Dopirak is ready to play everyday than to trade a young rookie who definitely has star material and could be the next big player in the league. We don't want to become the Giants and bench our up and coming players. Lee will still be in his prime by the time his new contract were to be over, so he could find a good deal elsewhere and Dopirak will be just entering his dreamtime.

But if the Cubs want seriously to trade Brian-D, then let's send him to a contender in the AL, where he can play DH if his defense never improves.

Michael Wuertz cheerleader.

by Carlos on Jun 9, 2005 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

About Juan Pierre...
... check out his numbers.

He's sucked this year. Although, his .306 OBA is still better than Corey's.

by Al Yellon on Jun 8, 2005 9:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

Trade with Marlins??
 I think it's safe to say, the Beinfest has hendry's phone # blocked.

by strohdkill on Jun 9, 2005 12:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

Pierre Blows
Why would we want a guy who is clearly on the decline?  

He gets thrown out about 33% of the time when running, his average is not very impressive, the only thing he has over corey right now is his obp and that isnt very impressive.

We can do better than Pierre, and Ken Griffey Jr. should be out of the question.  I have faith in Corey coming around eventually, but if he doesnt I don't want to unload for Pierre or Griffey, Hendry can do better than that.  

In Dusty I trust, All he does is win, I can deal with that.

by Will71081 @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jun 9, 2005 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions  

talk about a guy that needs a change of scenery...
Griffey would be a great addition to the Cubs. I think we should go after him. However, i'd prefer we keep Corey, at least for the rest of the year so Pie can get some at bats during his cup of coffee in September. I would rather go for Griffey and put him in LF. One requirement would be that the Reds either chip in a big portion of his salary.

I do agree with Ross above that i'd rather see us go after a lead-off hitter. However, having Griffey and Patterson together in the OF would mean great defense from here on out...

The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jun 8, 2005 5:55 PM CDT reply actions  

Only trade for Griffey if
we can renegotiate his contract.  Possibly an injury clause so that we don't get stuck paying two big money players to sit.
In Dusty I trust, All he does is win, I can deal with that.

by Will71081 @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jun 9, 2005 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

That's a very good idea...
... something Griffey might even be willing to do. Of course, you'd have to get Player's Association approval first. Like that'd ever happen.

by Al Yellon on Jun 9, 2005 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

Dempster
I agree that Dempster's been a phenomenal closer thus far in the season.  I'm still not sure if he'll be that Rivera/Gagne kind of guy that can come into the 8th inning with the bases loaded and one/two outs and strike out the next one/two batters in order, but he's sure fit the bill as the closer for the Cubs so far.

And it seemed like such a wacky and bad idea to take a base-on-balls-master tommy-johns project and turned him into a lights-out ninth inning guy.  I didn't think it would work, but I've been pleasantly surprised up to this point.

by andyrut on Jun 8, 2005 6:10 PM CDT reply actions  

he's crazy...
Dempster is a nut - in a good way. I think that's a big reason why it works so well. His blown save came in his first save opp. after being name the closer... a lot of guys would have let that get to him, but not our little walnut!
The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jun 8, 2005 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

Who would want Corey? And why?
It is one thing to say, "Let's trade Patterson for (put name here)".  But right now I wonder which team in their collective wisdom would want him, given his well-known peccadillos. I just don't see it happening with any of the aforementioned players - Griffey, Juan Pierre, Kotsay, etc.  Why would they trade those guys? I can't see how Patterson can help their clubs anymore than they can.  Hendry has to find a malcontent like Garciaparra and then work his mojo accordingly.

I think we're stuck with Corey for a while.

by JFCubFan on Jun 8, 2005 6:29 PM CDT reply actions  

I like it
I like the idea of Griffey, but I would be surprised in the Cubs would be willing to spend the money.  That is a lot of cash.  

And he would have to hit in the four or five hole, not the three hole.  You keep Lee hitting three, then hit A-Ram and Griffey 4 and five (or the other way around).  

And I think that a lot of people would take the chance on Corey - I would!  There is no doubt that the guy has potential, and he comes cheaply.  

I have always wondered about the Cubs acquiring Griffey...I think it could work.  I think that the bigger question would be if the Cubs are willing to unload Corey.

by big_lowitzki on Jun 8, 2005 6:51 PM CDT reply actions  

I think they would...
... I think comments made by both Hendry and Baker recently show how short a string Corey is on to produce NOW.

You're right about Griffey's spot in the batting order. Best would probably be fourth, between Lee and Ramirez, to split up the two right-handed hitters.

More on "Lou Brock Syndrome": Remember Brock was totally miscast as a Cub. The Cubs wanted him to be an Ernie Banks-type power hitter from the left side. He wasn't this sort of hitter and in fact, had Corey-like strikeout/walk numbers his first two years with the Cubs. He stole some bases, this at the very beginning of the 60s-70s stolen base era, but Cub thinking in those days was totally away from the SB (example: Brock stole 24 bases in 1963. No one else on the team had more than eight).

Brock inadvertently fueled the Cubs' desire to make a home run hitter out of him when he hit a home run into the CF bleachers at the Polo Grounds, something only three other men (Luke Easter in a Negro League game, Joe Adcock, and Hank Aaron) had done. You see the problem here.

When the Cardinals got him, they immediately knew what they had, installed him at leadoff, and his skills blossomed right away. Oddly, with the focus being OFF power for Brock, he wound up hitting 12-15 a year in his prime, with his career high being 21.

With Patterson we already know what he is not -- a leadoff hitter. He's a six- or seven- hole hitter. But he wants to be a three-hitter and he doesn't have what is necessary to be one. He's resistant to coaching, and his approach to at-bats is horrendous.

I cannot think of a coach or manager anywhere in baseball who can change habits made in over 2,000 major league at-bats. For comparison's sake, Brock had about 1100 at-bats when he was traded.

It was, of course, the worst deal in recent (and maybe all of) Cub history. Trading Corey Patterson, presuming value is received in return, would not be.

by Al Yellon on Jun 8, 2005 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sosa vs. Patterson
I am not so sure that you cannot correct a hitter's plate discipline.  Sosa learned plate discipline, and that was definitely after his first 2000+ at bats.  

I still think that Corey has a ton of potential, and could still turn out to be a very good player.  But right now he is hurting the Cubs.  At this point I would be willing to trade him, but I would also be content with waiting him out for a little while longer.  

by big_lowitzki on Jun 8, 2005 8:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sosa learned...
... because he had a great hitting coach, Jeff Pentland.

Pentland's available. He could be about the only one who could reach Corey.

Even then, I wouldn't expect miracles.

by Al Yellon on Jun 8, 2005 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

actually
there was just an article discussing this on espn...let me go look for it...here it is:
 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=2076327

talks about learning to be a leadoff hitter...

by billywan on Jun 8, 2005 9:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'd take Griffey
assuming that Cincy eats some of his contract.  Some of the injuries he's had have just been flukes, although the hamstrings are clearly a problem area.  The guy is hitting again and he's been healthy and he could certainly use a change of scenery.

I doubt that Cincinnati would take Corey for him though, unless a third team were involved.  One big reason the Reds want to trade Griffey is that they've got an outfield glut.  I doubt they want an outfielder in return.

I think the Reds might also be hesitant to trade Griffey within the division--or at least to us or St. Louis.  But I don't think it would hurt to pursue, and he really could break loose in Chicago.

Get in touch with your inner Neifi

by Josh Timmers on Jun 8, 2005 7:08 PM CDT reply actions  

I think they'd trade him here...
... if the Cubs would assume a lot of the contract. That's the only reason TO deal him -- to get out from under the contract.

It would, of course, be quite a bit of money to take the entire contract, including the deferred cash.

But as I mentioned, the Cubs do wipe out $17 million of payroll with Sammy Sosa off the books next year. There may be other large contracts (Nomar?) erased from the payroll budget. It's doable.

by Al Yellon on Jun 8, 2005 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

Here's the take of a Reds blogger...
The Red Reporter says:
Junior for Patterson is an interesting idea though, especially if the Cubs were shelling out for Junior's salary.

Let the rumormongering continue!

by Al Yellon on Jun 8, 2005 7:17 PM CDT reply actions  

Hmm
Hmm, I'll give it ten minutes until this pops up in one of ESPN.com's columns.
Michael Wuertz cheerleader.

by Carlos on Jun 8, 2005 8:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

DONT STOP BELIEVIN'!!!!!!!!
I BELIEVE that this should be the song that replaces JUMP at Wrigley Field.... What a great song... It's going to be a long JOURNEY this year, but as long as we DONT STOP BELIEVIN' everything will be alright!!

by BillHoldenFan on Jun 8, 2005 7:30 PM CDT reply actions  

Griffey
Are you serious, Al?

Griffey's production isn't much better if at all (actually, it's worse by measure of Wins Above Replacement that balances Griffey's superior bat with Corey's far better baserunning and defence), and Corey's the only one that stands a shot at getting better in a hurry because of his youth (I'd say Corey's underperforming right now). Corey's also ten times cheaper (literally!) and far less injury-prone.

Absolutely no way would I make that trade then. Not even if the Reds paid every cent on Griffey's contract, Mr Red Reporter.

Honestly, I know Corey bashing is the cool thing to do these days, but a sense of perspective really wouldn't go amiss. Yes, Corey strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough. But there are other facets to his game that are big positive - baserunning, defence, power.

by John Hill on Jun 8, 2005 7:57 PM CDT reply actions  

But is he really underperforming?
How many players have had 2000 at-bats and then suddenly established a new level of performance?

Not only has Corey not progressed, he has regressed.

You mention three "positives". Let's look at them.

Baserunning: irrelevant if he's never on base. Among "regular" players at this moment, Corey ranks seventy-ninth in on-base percentage -- just below Yadier Molina. Horrid.

Defense? Well, that's what started this thread yesterday -- his moon-shot throw that nearly hit Ron Santo in the pressbox. And no, his throw to third later in the game didn't make up for this.

Power? I can't think of ten less meaningful homers than the ten Corey has hit this year. All ten of them are solo jobs, and only five of them have been hit in games the Cubs won. He's only driven in eleven runs (including one today) other than the ten solo homers.

Unless he takes tomorrow's off day and has a brain transplant, I'd trade him.

by Al Yellon on Jun 8, 2005 8:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

you're wrong about no one changing after 2000 ABs
Just look no further than the free swinging, power hitting, base stealing strikeout machine that manned the Cubs outfield in the 90's - Mr. Sammy Sosa. I posted this in the "Corey thread" earlier today, but its relavent to this point, so i'll repost it here:

Sosa, age 24: .309 OPB, .486 SLG, 36 SB, 11 CS, 135 SO
Corey, age 24: .320 OPB, .452 SLG, 32 SB, 9 CS, 168 SO

Those two hitters are pretty close to each other. But look at the OBPs Sosa posted in the years following 1993, the year above:

  1. .339
  2. .340
  3. .323
  4. .300 (yowsers!)
Insert Jeff Pentland here
  1. .377
  2. .367
  3. .406
  4. .437 (yowsers the other way!)
  5. .399
Insert helmet-busting fastball here
  1. .358
  2. .332
Its clear someone can change. At the end of 1993, Sosa had over 3 full years experience in the bigs, and a total of 2,074 ABs. His change to a monster in '98 has been atrributed by many to stem from his listening to Pentland's preaching of plate discipline and patience. Furthermore, Sosa is much more arrogant and standoffish than Corey has ever been, so if someone can change Sosa someone can change Corey.
The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jun 8, 2005 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

Again, I'll say...
... that on the current Cub staff there's no one who can reach Corey.

Pentland might be able to. There's another "think outside the box" move. He was just fired by the Royals. Hire him as a "consultant" -- that gets around the MLB rules on how many coaches you can have, and won't offend Dusty and the current staff. Have him work with Corey only.

Do this and you MIGHT have a chance for a miracle with him.

by Al Yellon on Jun 8, 2005 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

Corey hasn't changed very much since last year
Here are some numbers I ran on Corey, comparing his performance last year after 221 ABs to this year, including today's game.

                  ABs  Hits  SO  BB   BA
6/11/2004   221   56    50  20   .253
6/08/2005   222   59    50  11   .266

I don't think Corey has changed much at all, other than becoming a more impatient batter and drawing less walks than he did a year ago.

So, who is going to change Corey now?

by JFCubFan on Jun 8, 2005 11:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

That is true...
...but I don't think anyone is arguing that Corey hasn't been a big disappointment so far this year.

That doesn't mean he needs to be traded though.

by John Hill on Jun 9, 2005 8:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

Close
"nsert Jeff Pentland here"

More like, "Insert syringe here."

by Ivychat on Jun 9, 2005 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions  

lol
good point. In that case, you could also replace "insert helmet-busting fastball here" with "remove syringe here"
The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jun 9, 2005 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes, he's underperforming
Corey isn't your usual case. The poor kid was rushed to the majors a long, long time before he was ready. He was given a double promotion from Lansing to West Tenn despite some pretty poor peripheral performance indicators (walks, strikeouts, average on balls in play etc). Then, when he understandably struggled at West Tenn, he was given a cup of coffee and promoted to Iowa the next year. He struggled even more. No matter, he was in Chicago permanently by the end of his third year out of high school. As a result, he's still learning now the lessons he should have been learning fix, six years ago in the minors. The fundamentals to his hitting really aren't good, bad habits have stuck and haven't been corrected. I don't believe though that they can't be corrected. Indeed, in 2003 and the majority of 2004 (he had a terrible September, probably attributable to the wear and tear of a full year coming off knee surgery), he was making big strides foward. There was still a long way to go, but I'm not willing to write off this season (and his career with it) yet just because he hasn't yet made them.

Baserunning isn't "irrelevant if he's never on base". It's just less often relevant. But it's still relevant. There will be times when Corey is on base. And then Corey's one of the better runners in the game. I refuse to believe he won't end the year with a higher OBP than he has now.

His defence taken as a whole is well above average. Yes, there are some difficult plays he doesn't make (the dropped dive, and the one at the wall in LA), and he should make them if he wants to win a GG, but many other fielders don't have the range to get to those balls in the first place, and Corey's range gets him to a lot of balls on which he does successfully make the plays. His throwing is normally fine.

And his power. There's no such thing as a meaningless home run. Yes, so far this year they've all been solo shots, but I'm sure you remember him coming up big for us last year in a few extra inning situations. That's just the way it goes, sometimes the bad pitches come with the bases clean, sometimes with them juiced. I don't believe that Corey isn't clutch or anything like that. As for RBI, he's spent half the season hitting after the pitcher.

I'm not opposed to trading him, but only if it doesn't represent us giving up on him. Trading him for Griffey would represent exactly that. Right now though I'm not sure there are other teams out there willing to pay based on Corey's definite potential rather than his production so far. And if that's the case, I'm basically opposed to trading him.

Corey's a good player, a 30/30 guy who plays very good defence at a key defensive position. The reaction to him from fans is disproportionate, and it's based only on the fact that Corey by now should be even better than this. If you want someone to blame for that though, it's the Cubs and their rushing him to the majors, not Corey himself.

by John Hill on Jun 8, 2005 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

If you're right...
... and they keep Corey and he turns into the player you think he can become, we'll all be very, very happy.

I hope I'm wrong about him. I fear I'm right.

by Al Yellon on Jun 8, 2005 9:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

So...
"many other fielders don't have the range to get to those balls in the first place"

Let's re-word this.

Korey drops balls that other players couldn't even dream of dropping.

by Ivychat on Jun 9, 2005 9:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

realization
i'm starting to think you're actually a white sox fan in disguise.

by billywan on Jun 9, 2005 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

Perhaps
But I've come to realize that the ones defending Korey are Cardinal fans in disguise.

Why else would they campaign to keep a guy who hasn't shown anything since 1999?

by Ivychat on Jun 9, 2005 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

I agree
that Corey was rushed to the majors way too early. However, I remember Dusty saying last year (or the year before), that Corey's problem was that he was brought up too quickly and that he didn't learn a lot of the things he should have learned down in the minors (which I thought was a huge slap at Andy McPhail, but whatever). So if that was the case last year or the year before, why hasn't he NOW learned all those things? How many years can they keep using the excuse that Corey "just doesn't know" things that every other major league player knows unconsciously?
Hey-Dawson backwards is Noswad!---Harry Caray

by cubbiejulie on Jun 9, 2005 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

Exactly.
If Corey didn't know this stuff because he was "rushed to the majors", then it is incumbent upon him to learn these things at this level, to work even harder, to catch up, etc.

He hasn't done any of these things, and I think there are two primary reasons:

  • #1 Draft Pick Syndrome -- i.e. he's a top draft pick and so feels "entitled" to be where he is without working hard;
  • Son Of Professional Athlete Syndrome -- Corey's father was a defensive back for the Atlanta Falcons for a number of years in the '70s. I think there are some guys like this, whose fathers were pro athletes, who don't make the adjustments that others do. This isn't true for everyone, of course. Plus, I think Corey has somewhat of a football mentality in his approach to the game.

by Al Yellon on Jun 9, 2005 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

Griffey
The only way to make this trade is for the Red to pay every bit of his salery over the ML minimum. Much as I like "The Kid" he made a mistake leaving Seattle and he has been paying for it ever since. He is brittle and overpaid, not for what he was but for who he is.

Tis a shame, really, he had so much talent and skill.

by bubbamike the one and only on Jun 8, 2005 8:06 PM CDT reply actions  

Griffey and
The Wall. Ivy isn't the best padding. He'd last about 8 games in Wrigley. Bad Idea. I'd rather have Pierre.

by cephyn on Jun 8, 2005 8:16 PM CDT reply actions  

Yeah, I thought of that...
... but a lot of Griffey's injuries have had nothing to do with colliding with walls.

He's had hamstring problems which were mostly caused running the bases.

When he separated his shoulder in 2003, he did it diving for a ball hit by, of all people, Paul Bako. He hit his shoulder on the warning track in Cincinnati. Could have happened anywhere.

I don't think this is a reason not to do it.

by Al Yellon on Jun 8, 2005 8:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

consider
  1. the man is injury prone
  2. padded walls may have spared him
  3. he may be allergic to Ivy

by cephyn on Jun 8, 2005 8:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Three quick points.
1)To answer jfcubfan's question. Many teams would love to have Patterson.  The team off the top of my head are the New York Yankees. I mean they have been playing Matsui in center.  Other teams that could possibly want him include San Diego, Washington, Philidelphia, Houston, and Detroit.
2)Trading for Griffey would be a horrible move.  Griffey is a centerfielder in name only and can not be counted on to play an entire season.  Now that we have some finantial wiggle room I don't want to waste any of it on an aging, brittle, centerfielder that cant play center well.
3)Lastly I want to echo John Hills last comments. If Corey were a 25 year old rookie we would all be very happy about what he is showing so far. Dubois is 26 and has many of the same problems without the benefits of defense or baserunning.

by Boilerfan on Jun 8, 2005 8:22 PM CDT reply actions  

But
But the reality is that Korey is a three year veteran. He could have changed after that amount of at bats and games played -- Dubois is twenty six, yes, but he's just learning. Remember that he's been in the Majors for around six months now. If he listens to his hitting coach, the manager and the media, he can reduce that ghastly K/BB rate.
Michael Wuertz cheerleader.

by Carlos on Jun 8, 2005 8:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Corey is learning too.
I won't hold it against him that he was brought up to the major league club before he was ready. 25 is still quite young. He is the same age as David Dejesus, Nick Swisher, and Chris Burke all of whom were considered top prospects coming into the season.  

by Boilerfan on Jun 8, 2005 8:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

Who Corey Wants to Be
We see how corey plays. I think he wants to be Torii Hunter, who does hit 3-4 in the lineup in a contending team. Their stats are remarkably similar, take a look. Corey just needs to learn plate discipline. If he did that, he's a shorter, average defense Torii Hunter.

by cephyn on Jun 8, 2005 8:28 PM CDT reply actions  

Look at the data, this doesn't make sense
I'll give you another set of stats, for this year:
Player A: .312 OBP, .444 SLG, 3 SB, 36 yrs. old
Player B: .341 OBP, .483 SLG, 0 SB, 35 yrs. old
Player C: .301 OBP, .438 SLG, 7 SB, 25 yrs. old

A is Burnitz, B is Griffey, and C is Patterson. Clearly, Griffey is having the best offensive year of the 3. However, the difference between Patterson and Burnitz is almost meaningless, and Patterson plays better defense and runs the bases better. Yet, Corey is the guy everyone is bashing and saying we should trade straight up for a hitter having a marginally better year that is 10 years older and comes at a much higher price! Now that i look at it, there's no way i do this. Furthermore, if we DO trade for Griffey, i'd start Patterson over Burnitz any day of the week.

The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jun 8, 2005 8:35 PM CDT reply actions  

Of the past 7 years
how many seasons has Griffey made it through without getting injured? In fact, in those seven years, how many times has he made it halfway through the season without getting hurt? I'm asking because I don't know--and frankly, I'm trying to get two kids to bed, so I don't have time to look it up. He just ALWAYS seems to get some season-ending injury before the all-star break. Just throwing it out there.

I'm not trying to be snarky, but I don't see how adding another injury-plagued player to this lineup helps. Within 2 two weeks, Junior would go banging into the wall, break something, and be out for the season. Corey, meanwhile, will turn into Lou Brock.

But that's just me---I've always thought Junior was highly overrated. Sure, he was great when he was young and healthy, but since then, I haven't been all that high on him.

Hey-Dawson backwards is Noswad!---Harry Caray

by cubbiejulie on Jun 8, 2005 10:13 PM CDT reply actions  

I'll take Patterson
I'd have to nix the Patterson for Griffey trade.  I've always been a Griffey fan.  I'll remember him as one of the rarest talents I've seen in my 20 years of watching baseball.  Having said that, I'll remember him for the player he was, certainly not the player he is now.

If you break each player down, I'd still take Corey.  The obvious risk with Griffey is salary and injury, but even with those two issues aside Griffey just isn't the same player.  He hasn't hit 25+ homers in a season since 2000.  His BA is nearly the same as Corey's with only 3 fewer strikeouts and a comparable number of AB's.  Power numbers are a wash, with Griffey certainly having a better track record but having the advantage of playing in the Great American Shoebox.  Some will disagree with me, but I take Corey in a landslide in centerfield.  Despite his recent transgressions, he played Gold Glove caliber defense last year and has far more range than Junior.  He has a decent arm, but remember Griffey is no sniper by any stretch.  Corey still makes things happen when he's on the basepaths(even though he can't seem to fit getting on base into his busy schedule) while the same can't be said for Griffey.  

If I measure risk vs. reward, I think the Cubs take a tremendous risk with the annual injury to Griffey, plus being unable to unload his contract if need be. Also, I just wouldn't want to miss out if Corey ever honed his skills.  There's no denying he has upside, it's just at matter of if and when he will realize it.

by JD McCubbie on Jun 8, 2005 10:44 PM CDT reply actions  

Pitching prospects
I have to commend the Cubs on having the foresight to have pithers like Sergio Mitre in the system for times like this.  While Mitre and Koronka are not All-Star talents they both are able to come up and keep the Cubs in games.  Look at the junk pitchers the Yankees keep throwing out there.  Not only will Mitre keep us in games but if he continues throwing games like this he could net us some good player when the trading deadline rolls around.

by Boilerfan on Jun 8, 2005 11:03 PM CDT reply actions  

Mitre Impressive
This had to be his best game so far in the majors, and what impressed me the most about him was his 15 GB to ZERO FB stat.  

If Sergio continues to pitch like this, we may NOT want to trade him!

One other thing, the cumulative ERA for the Cubs pitching staff has come down almost ONE run - from 4.60 (peaked during the 7 game losing streak in early May) to 3.73 today.

Again, impressive given the injuries and flakey relief pitching.  

by JFCubFan on Jun 8, 2005 11:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

Don't trade Mitre?
I'm not sure about that.

Next year the Cubs will have...

Mark Prior (not going anywhere period)
Carlos Zambrano (not going anywhere period)
Kerry Wood (almost certainly not going anywhere)

Greg Maddux (assuming his option vests, which it probably will)
Glendon Rusch (assuming he picks up his player option, which I'd say rate right now as more likely than not)

Jerome Williams (out of options, must stick on 25)
Angel Guzman (out of options, must stick on 25)
Sergio Mitre (out of options, must stick on 25)

All of those, assuming health (which in the case of Guzman is a bit of a stretch, but I'm not giving up on a kid that young, good and effective when healthy yet), have justified claims to be starting on a major-league ballclub. The first three (Prior, Z, Wood) are guaranteed their spots, obviously. That means we have five pitchers for two spots. You do the math, that doesn't quite go! We project to have a real surplus.

Mitre is the most fungible of the above eight. After all, Ricky Nolasco (currently at Double-A) is a similar sinkerballer (although not as good). So, if the opportunity arises, I think we have to trade Mitre. If Mitre performs great between now and then and raises his trade value, great. We should then be able to get more impact talent (OF?) in return.

by John Hill on Jun 9, 2005 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

Mitre...
... could be tradeable as early as later this season if Wood and Prior return from injuries.

I think we're going to find out more about Jerome Williams later this year -- no doubt, he'll replace John Koronka as soon as he puts together a couple more decent Triple-A starts, or loses some weight, or both.

by Al Yellon on Jun 9, 2005 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions  

Don't Forget
Don't Forget to add in Bobbie Brownlie if he fixes what is wrong in AAA, Rich Hill, Raul Valdez, and almost all of the AA staff that are pitching lights out baseball. The Cubs might have to trade two of those guys. I suggest Wood and Mitre.

by Boilerfan on Jun 9, 2005 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions  

I do not think...
... Bobby Brownlie will ever make the major leagues. And if he does, he projects as a middle reliever.

If you can convince other teams otherwise, by all means, trade him NOW.

by Al Yellon on Jun 9, 2005 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

Close
Right now Browline projects as a tendon donor for Chad Fox.

by Ivychat on Jun 10, 2005 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

Prospects
Brownlie is a bust. It'll take a miracle for him to ever become a major leaguer worth having.

Rich Hill I think might project better as a BJ Ryan-type reliever (using a curve instead of BJ's slider). He also has a few problems with home runs right now. Pinto probably also projects better in relief, and he was control problems.

Valdez is a junkballer. His fastball tops out in the mid-eighties. Nolasco is an inferior version of Mitre.

by John Hill on Jun 9, 2005 7:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Why no Polanco?
"Thus, the somewhat curious Phillies-Tigers trade today, in which the Tigers received Placido Polanco (good! this means the Cubs won't get him!)"
 I have to ask why is it a good thing that we don't get Polanco. He is more valuabe than any player we currently on the bench while providing insurance in case Neifi v2002 returns.  Also, Polanco is a free agent at the end of the year so when Detoit realizes they are not going to win anything this year Polonco will probably be traded.

by Boilerfan on Jun 9, 2005 12:24 AM CDT reply actions  

Consider...
... what the Tigers gave up for Polanco.

I don't think the Cubs had what the Phillies wanted.

by Al Yellon on Jun 9, 2005 8:53 AM CDT up reply actions  

Probably Not.
But I bet we have enough prospects to get him from the Tigers.

by Boilerfan on Jun 9, 2005 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

Oh, for another OFer
Cubs desperately need an impact OF bat.  None of the guys have really stepped up out there ... which at least gives Hendry some flexibility as to who to deal and which hole to plug.
I resent the inference that I'm not prepared. I live my life every minute every day to prepare for combat.

by Serena on Jun 9, 2005 12:28 AM CDT reply actions  

From the wire
From Foxsports
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/3666036

The Rangers' Kevin Mench, among others. Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi jokes that Bowden calls him once a week about Vernon Wells.
(One for one for Patterson as mentioned on another Cub website??)
. . .
The Mets remain desperate for a quality lefthanded reliever, (Remlinger?? for a prospect or two?)

by chroniccub on Jun 9, 2005 8:36 AM CDT reply actions  

Do the
Do the Mets have any prospects left? Valuable prospects, that is. I thought their minor league system was depleted.
Michael Wuertz cheerleader.

by Carlos on Jun 9, 2005 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions  

Damon
If we are going to drop 10 million and a long term contract,btw like griffeys, id take damon instead. and red sox always liked cpat.

by MOE on Jun 9, 2005 8:44 AM CDT reply actions  

i'd rather have Damon than Griffey...
Not only is he less of a risk injury-wise, but he's also a better fielder at this point in their careers, and he can bat lead-off.

However, i don't think the Saux would do this one...

The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jun 9, 2005 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions  

Ho, MOE
So, the Saawx, home of OBP guru Theo Epstein, have always wanted a low OBP guy like Korey?

Remember your SATs?

Korey is to Youkilis as McDonalds is to:

A) Denny's
B) Burger King
C) Charlie Trotter's

The answer is C.

by Ivychat on Jun 9, 2005 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

Hmm...
They did trade for Orlando Cabrera last year, who was sporting an impressive .295 OBP at the time.
Michael Wuertz cheerleader.

by Carlos on Jun 9, 2005 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

The Saux are not all about OBP anymore...
they're focusing more on speed and defense now. Besides, Theo's interest in Corey comes from rumors he was trying to get Corey as a part of last year's deal for Nomar.
The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jun 9, 2005 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Heck if I know
what they see or saw in Corey, but they wanted him at one point. So far trading with Theo has not worked in the Cubs favor. Theo may be thinking he can unload damon and replace for less, ala Pierre.

by MOE on Jun 9, 2005 9:36 AM CDT reply actions  

That said --
That said -- the Sox are having troubles signing Damon for the next season, let alone a multi year contract. I think sending him away would be their best option. That way, they can get Matt Murton back and more prospects along with Korey which is heaps better than losing him to free agency next year.
Michael Wuertz cheerleader.

by Carlos on Jun 9, 2005 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

All things being equal
Id rather have pierre, he is younger, will cost less and he gets us the high obp speed we need to lead off.

by MOE on Jun 9, 2005 9:40 AM CDT reply actions  

Except for the fact that
he can't steal efficiently anymore, if he ever could.

Pierre is one of the most overrated players, mainly because of the Marlins championship that year.  Pierre was not the reason they won the series though.

In Dusty I trust, All he does is win, I can deal with that.

by Will71081 @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jun 9, 2005 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

Losing streak ended
Daughters boyfriend who was at the game yesterday wanted it mentioned that his 10+ year losing streak finally ended.22 years old and finally gets to see a Cub win.

by jimhickman on Jun 9, 2005 1:21 PM CDT reply actions  

Excellent news!
Now he can come back again!

by Al Yellon on Jun 9, 2005 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

CPat
It's interesting that in 2003, I mentioned to a friend that the Cub most likely to be a primadonna is Patterson.  I don't have enough info on that to know if it came true.  He plays a damn good centerfield because of his speed and he has a pretty good arm.  Everyone will make defensive mistakes; that's something that is easy for someone like him to improve on because you have more time to think about it.  Hitting is so much more difficult because of the instant assessment the batter must make.  Does anyone remember Andre Dawson in the '89 playoffs?  He was pressing so hard that he was literally swinging at ANYTHING.  If you notice Patterson's pattern,  he is a much better hitter with no one on base because he is more relaxed.  With RISP, he is guaranteed to swing at anything.  Leaving aside any comments about his personality, he has all of the ability to be a tremendous player.  I get very frustrated watching him K with runners on third and less than two outs, but it's not time to trade him yet.  

by CyberCyclist on Jun 9, 2005 1:37 PM CDT reply actions  

Wrong
"he is a much better hitter with no one on base"

Runners on: .263/.307/.316
None on: .268/.295/.520 (SLG is high as all 10 of his homers have been hit with the bases empty.

He's bad.

by Ivychat on Jun 9, 2005 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

um...
so you say the last person is wrong, then you post the statistics that prove that person right! HA! Corey hasn't been any better at getting on base with nobody on, but he's certainly been a better hitter this season with no one on. Your stats bear this out!
The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jun 9, 2005 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

tx
I got my reply in before I saw yours posted.

by CyberCyclist on Jun 9, 2005 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not just OBA
I said he is a much better hitter with no one on base.  The stats you provided show that all 10 of his homers have been hit with the bases empty.  This is quite a difference, no?

by CyberCyclist on Jun 9, 2005 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oh
OK.  You want to say that his slugging is "much better" with the bases empty, fine.

But 5 points in BA and 12 in OBP isn't much better.  It's statistically the same.

But, hey.  I'm a dumbass because I don't think that this is "much better."  Fine.

Sheesh!

by Ivychat on Jun 9, 2005 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Take it easy
There's no need to take it so personally.  I think it illustrates the point that his approach to hitting is different with runners on.  Some hitters are able to focus better with runners on (similar to a hitter focusing a little better with a hit and run) and Patterson is more likely to swing at bad pitches.  It's not just a stastitical thing.  His body language is different, his swing is different, etc.  Watch him very closely for a few games and see if you can tell the difference.

by CyberCyclist on Jun 9, 2005 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

Bah.
I see the reason he has more homers, but the same OBP with runners off the bases is the pitcher's concentration, not Korey's.

Easier to forgive a mistake with no one on than with runners on.

by Ivychat on Jun 9, 2005 4:21 PM CDT reply actions  

Trading Patterson
What about Preston Wilson with Colorado?  Aren't the Rockies trying to dump him for salary reasons?  I'd swap Patterson for Wilson, depending on whether Wilson is still a big RBI guy.  I'm also not aware of his defense.  But he can swing the bat!
KJ

by kdjohn34 on Jun 10, 2005 11:40 AM CDT reply actions  

No way...
Patterson is Corey, except older, slower, and more injury prone. Oh, and more expensive. His career strikeout totals are awful, and will be much worse away from Coors where breaking balls don't break. I'm not totally against trading Corey, but its gotta be something good. When we gave up Hill and Choi we got GREAT value in return - ARam and DLee. Giving up Corey would have to yield a player of that caliber, otherwise its a no go. And Wilson certainly isn't it.
The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jun 10, 2005 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Note to Jim Hendery:
Do not aquire Preston Wilson.  He is hitting 269/328/513 while playing half his games at Coors field.  Add in the differance in defence and baserunning and he would not be any differant than Corey Patterson.

by Boilerfan on Jun 10, 2005 2:54 PM CDT reply actions  

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