It Can Be Done

by SuperContext on Jul 11, 2005 9:34 AM CDT

It seems to me that Cubs fan nation is, at the moment, divided into two camps. The first camp, to which I belong, is the optimists (or, to be less charitable, the Kool-Aid drinkers). The second camp is the pessimists, the sellers, the folks who are readying their forks and see the oven timer ticking down to zero, who believe the Cubs season is cooked, well-done, possibly even burnt to a crisp.

To the second camp I say, "You may be right." (If I was Billy Joel, I might say, "you may be right, I may be crazy....") The Cubs may fail spectacularly in the second half. But there is also a chance they may succeed. It can be done.

To know it can be done, we need look no further than last season. Not last season's collapsing Cubs, of course, but last season's Houston Astros. They were a team performing far under everyone's expectations at the break, and had been written off by sportswriters, fans, and serious gamblers alike. Really, don't you wish you could go back in time to the All-Star break last year and put some money on Houston to take the Cardinals to seven in the NLCS?

But that's what they did. At the All-Star break last year, the 'Stros were 44-44. This year, the Cubs are 43-44. Not a monumental difference. The 'Stros picked up a big bat in Carlos Beltran - the Cubs need to make a similar move to have a shot. Houston also had a big managerial shake-up, but I'm not going to get into that for the moment, except to say that I sincerely doubt we will be replicating that particular move.

So all you naysayers take heart. All is not yet lost. The Cubs may indeed crash and burn, but they might also do something magical and spectacular, but not entirely unprecedented.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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There is a third camp...

...those of us who would like to see the team that showed up in Miami prevail over the team that floundered in Atlanta. The latter team is the team that most often took the field in the first half. We know its possible for the Cubs to make the playoffs, but we'd like some evidence beyond three games before we start flipping out and overlooking some major holes that have yet to be fixed.

by chmcneel on Jul 11, 2005 9:45 AM CDT reply actions

not just beltran

they changed managers too. hint hint.

by cephyn on Jul 11, 2005 11:01 AM CDT reply actions

hint eh?

That hint is a subtle as a swift kick to the gonads.

by Slaky311 on Jul 11, 2005 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions

true

but thats how i feel every time Dusty pulls a Dusty Special.

by cephyn on Jul 11, 2005 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions

The major move would be...

acquiring Adam Dunn. According to theDayton Daily News (registration required) the Cubs are interested in Dunn and/or Kearns. Here's the nugget from the article people around here will care about:

"If the Reds want to move an outfielder, either Austin Kearns or Adam Dunn, the line is long and teams are scuffling to get to the front. The Chicago Cubs have rabid interest in either/or, as do the Cleveland Indians, Washington Nationals and the suddenly surging Houston Astros."

If we get Dunn, we're not just making the playoffs, we're gonna win the whole thing. How's that for kool-aid?

The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jul 11, 2005 11:12 AM CDT reply actions

Wow, I sure wish...

... getting Adam Dunn would guarantee a World Championship. What it would do is guarantee more baserunners, and more power from a position that desperately needs some. It doesn't put Matt Murton out of the picture, either. Could Murton play CF? Or maybe Jeromy Burnitz could be shipped out (for bullpen help?)and Murton could play RF. As I've said before, anyone but Prior, Z, Lee and Ramirez off the ML roster, and just about anyone except Pie and Sean Gallagher from the system, for Dunn. Kearns wouldn't cost as much, but doesn't have as much upside either.

by Al Yellon on Jul 11, 2005 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions

I disagree

I would totally trade Felix Pie for Adam Dunn. Dunn is just that good.

by Boilerfan on Jul 11, 2005 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions

Further about Dunn...

... I can guarantee you nothing will happen till at least Thursday.

Bud Selig, and rightly so, strongly discourages teams from making major moves during the All-Star break.

by Al Yellon on Jul 11, 2005 1:06 PM CDT reply actions

Also

teams don't want to put up the white flag until the last moment. The Reds will wait until the last moment to trade a loved player like Dunn.

by Boilerfan on Jul 11, 2005 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions

Cubs @ Reds 7/18 - 7/21

OK, Cubs acquire Dunn this coming weekend before this series. Wouldn't that be sweet!

by JFCubFan on Jul 11, 2005 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions

Does Dunn help?

I'm not so sure. Trust me, I like Dunn, and think it'd be a major upgrade over our current disastrous platoon out in LF (limiting that to the Todd Hollandsworth/Dubois experiment, while properly urging caution on Mr. Murton). But do the Cubs need another strikeout guy (99 Ks so far?)

On the other hand, having Dunn (who's a left handed hitter) maybe improves the Cubs order because of who you could then move up to the order to be driven in by D. Lee. Check this hypothetical lineup that would seem to make sense (and thus would probably rarely be used by Dusty):

CF Hairston (he's been raking the ball lately)
2B Walker
1B Lee
LF Dunn
3B Ramirez
RF Burnitz
C Barrett
SS Perez
P

You'd have right-left down to the 6 spot....plus, with this lineup, you could easily put Nomar when he comes back down in the order, where he's sure to see some better pitches, and gradually get his confidence and game up in time for the (maybe) playoffs. And it'd only probably cost you some expiring contracts and prospects.

by Chadnudj on Jul 11, 2005 2:04 PM CDT reply actions

Forget the strikeouts for a moment...

... simply put, the Cubs have no one -- save D. Lee -- who can get on base as often as Dunn.

Frankly, I think I'd hit Dunn third, ahead of Lee and Ramirez -- more baserunners for them to drive in!

by Al Yellon on Jul 11, 2005 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions

I dunno about that

It's an interesting thought. At first glance I prefer it to be Lee-Dunn-ARam, but I'll need to think about it more. That's my kneejerk "good idea" lineup though. Seriously I'd be afraid that putting Dunn at 3 would too often run the danger of clearing the bases before Lee gets up, defeating the purpose. 8) I'd rather have Dunn #4 as the guy that is the backup in case Lee doesn't come through with a HR, who can still put pressure on the pitcher and could drive in more runs, and if the bases are clear (thanks to Lee) well, then we have a guy who can still set the table for ARam and the rest of the order.

by cephyn on Jul 11, 2005 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions

Maybe...

we should stop thinking about it until we actually get Dunn because if we don't get it you might fall too hard. I like Dunn's power, but I'm a little scared of the K's.

Cubbie blue always sPaRkLeS in my eyes.

by sparkles721 on Jul 11, 2005 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions

I meant

the lineup being the "it" we wont get. Whether it's because Dusty doesn't make the lineup like that or we never get Dunn.

Cubbie blue always sPaRkLeS in my eyes.

by sparkles721 on Jul 11, 2005 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions

Strikeouts...

...are just outs. Period. But since there isn't a category for Ground Ball or Fly Outs listed on most stat sheets, people get up in arms about them. This just means that Dunn, if properly used, is not your primary RBI man, since he's less likely to move runners over through sacrifices. Dunn could potentially thrive in the two-hole, as Jim Edmonds usually does in St. Louis batting in front of Pujols. Edmonds also strikes out plenty, but he also walks and crushes fastballs. This is what Adam Dunn will do for years to come.

by chmcneel on Jul 11, 2005 2:16 PM CDT reply actions

Agreed

I've said that I'd hit Dunn in the two-hole ever since I heard that he might be available. Besides, IF we were to get him, we'd be getting him at about the same time Nomar came back, and we'd have to placate Nomie a bit, probably hitting him fifth.

1-CF-J.Hairston (I really don't see a problem with him, and he'll get better with more experience in center. If anything, bring Patterson up to be his defensive replacement in the late innings. -Kind of like a Doug Glanville.)
2-LF-A.Dunn (Tremendous power, but he also walks a ton. He also runs pretty good for a big man. He can also be used to spell Lee at first.)
3-1B-DLEE! (If you watch wrestling, I'm fond of saying DLEE! in the same way the crowd yells THREEDEE! for the Dudley Boyz when its time for their finisher.)
4-3B-A. Ramirez.
5-SS-N. Garcicaparra
6-2B-T.Walker
7-RF-J.Burnitz (A lot of people around here don't like him, seemingly because of two miscues on the basepaths, but he's hitting 40-50 points higher than I expected him to, and his power numbers are pretty much in line with what I'd expect. He's also got the fifth highest OBP of all the "regulars" (Hairston and Walker included, even though playing time has been spotty/injuries.).
8-C-M. Barrett-(Dusty doesn't like clumping together lefties, but, Barrett does pretty good out of the eight hole, and Burnitz would see nothing but breaking stuff here, and I don't think that would be the best for him.

Even if we don't get Dunn, swap Murton in for him, and that's the lineup I'd like to see for the first half. Make Hollandsworth a bench player or trade him to a team looking for bench OF help and try to get Dustan Mohr from the Rockies or Bobby Kielty from the A's if Beane would part with him. If we're going to carry Murton on the ML roster, he needs to be playing every day, and not getting pulled as soon as a righty reliever comes into the game.

Embrace the Neifi!

by Whitebacon on Jul 11, 2005 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions

Kielty...

is an interesting trade target for the Cubs, since:

a.) Kotsay looks to be in Oakland long-term
b.) Oakland still has a logjam in the OF, that is getting worse after the break with the addition of Jay Payton
c.) Hendry and Beane looked ready to make a deal sending Kotsay to the Cubs before the exentsion was signed, which could be a starting point for a new deal
d.) Kielty is they type of player Hendry is looking to acquire - one that won't be a one-year, "rent-a-player"
e.) The A's have needs where the Cubs have something to give, namely at 2B (Hairston or Walker could be moved), and young pitching (which the Cubs in some ways have too much of at this point).

The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jul 11, 2005 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm talking

as strictly as a bench guy that Dusty won't play.

Embrace the Neifi!

by Whitebacon on Jul 11, 2005 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions

I wish there was an edit feature

That is...that would force him to play Murton full time in left. I'm not too keen on trading Hairston unless we get a leadoff hitting centerfielder in return, because he's the only one we have.

Embrace the Neifi!

by Whitebacon on Jul 11, 2005 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions

yes, if hairston is traded...

we need to get a leadoff hitter from somewhere. It wouldn't have to be part of the deal that sends him away, though. I wouldn't mind getting rid of Hairston as long as we can get someone like Matt Lawton in another deal to lead off for us. Of course, that begs the question of who will play CF...

The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jul 11, 2005 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions

i agree

I would hit Dunn 2nd in any Cub lineup that didn't include Nomar! However, once Nomar! returns in August Dunn i would likely drop to 4th in the lineup, both to protect D.Lee and to be a high OBP man to get on base after Lee clears them. Remember, his OBP is so high that he even hit leadoff for a while with the Reds, making him the tallest leadoff hitter in the history of the game.

The Cubs will thrive in twenty-oh-five!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jul 11, 2005 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions