Upcoming HOF votes

by JDay on Jan 11, 2006 3:16 AM CST Comment 8 comments

Hall of Fame voting looks to get real interesting over the next few years (you can look at Jayson Stark's espn.com article on Sutter to see a list of the next four classes). After Sutter broke some new ground by getting in, I thought it might be fun for people to make some predictions on what we'll see in the next few years.

Next year's class is huge. There are some really great players in there, a lot of former all stars, and a few questions marks. Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken, Jr, are both eligible next year, and are mortal locks to get in. The only interesting thing there will be seeing who won't vote for them. Mark McGwire's also eligible, and it will be really interesting to see how things pan out in his first year. I expect to hear "I'm not here to talk about the past" mentioned a few hundred times next year.

Beyond those guys, the most interesting person to watch will be Harold Baines. Since most of his time was spent as a DH, it'll be interesting to see what voters think of him.

After that, the next three years will be relatively weak. So guys like Goose Gossage and Andre Dawson, et al, should get renewed interest again. The big question will be seeing how guys from the "steroid era" will affect those votes now that some of them are eligible for induction themselves.

I think Tim Raines has the best shot of newcomers in '08, though I don't expect him to make it. Rickey Henderson is on the ballot of 2009, but I'm not sure how that will work. If he's officially retired, it's just been in the past year or so, so I'm not sure how that will weigh in. I'm also not sure that he's a first ballot-guy anymore after hanging around so long. I think the vote totals of Matt Williams and Mark Grace might surprise us. They won't get close, but they might be more well thought of than we'd think.

The big question in 2010 will be Edgar Martinez. It goes back to the DH thing. I think a lot of that will depend on Harold Baines.

Thoughts?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Ricky Henderson

is eligible five years after his last major league game. His stints in the independent leagues have no bearing on his HoF eligibility.

And there is no question that Ricky is a first-ballot HoFer. It won't even be close. If it is, the HoF should take the vote away from the BWAA because they'd have gone insane. Ricky is one of the twenty-five greatest players to ever play the game.

My initial impulse is Baines has no shot, but in ten years 2866 hits and 384 HRs may look hall-worthy. Edgar Martinez will have to go in first, so Harold may have a long, long wait. He may go in with the Veterans Committee in 2035 or something. (And don't tell me that he won't be eligile in 2035--the Veterans Committee is always changing the rules.) But I'd bet he never makes it. 134 more hits and 16 more HRs and he'd be a lock. Too bad for him--he's one mediocre season away from the Hall.

Raines should easily be a HoFer, but he'll probably have to wait a few years because he played most of his career in Montreal. But then Gary Carter can stop bragging/complaining about being the only HoFer with an Expos cap.

If you think Grace will get a lot of votes, just look at the vote totals that Keith Hernandez got. They're almost identical players, and Keith got almost no support.

Without the strike, Matt Williams might have broken Maris' record in 1994 and have gotten some Hall support. But with injuries and a career that might as well have ended at age 33, he's got no shot and will be lucky to get more than a couple dozen votes.

Baseball can be summed up in one word--you never know--Joaquin Andujar

by Josh77 on Jan 11, 2006 4:34 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Harold Baines....

... despite decent career numbers, never had a great individual season. He never scored 100 runs in a season, nor hit 30 HR. He drove in 100 runs only three times, and led his league in an offensive category ONCE -- in SLG in 1984.

I wouldn't vote for him. It's the same thing that Fred McGriff will find when his Hall chance comes up in a few years. If Baines had had 3000 hits, he'd be in. If McGriff had gotten to 500 HR, he'd be in. It's odd, but those little milestones seem to mean a lot.

Same thing for Jim Kaat, Tommy John and Bert Blyleven, all of whom finished just a bit short of 300 wins.

It is the recognition that players get for such milestones, that help put them over the top with a lot of HoF voters.

You can argue whether that's right or wrong, but you cannot deny that that happens.

About Rickey Henderson, I cannot find a cite, but ISTR hearing that his play in the independent leagues was going to push back his induction date. If anyone can find a link for this, please post it.

by Al on Jan 11, 2006 4:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i don't think

Baines is a HoFer either. I'm just saying that he's got some stats to base an argument on and you never know how the vote will go in the future. No one in 1940 thought Lloyd Waner was a Hall of Famer. (Of course, no one today thinks Lloyd Waner is a HoFer either.) Maybe one day someone will write "The Glory of Their Times--2030" and interview Harold and he'll get in. I doubt it, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Here is a list from the Baseball Hall of Fame listing Ricky's eligibility in 2009. I think that's as official as one can get. In fact, I remember Jayson Stark joking that Ricky would be the first player to miss his induction ceremony because he had a Golden League game that day.

Baseball can be summed up in one word--you never know--Joaquin Andujar

by Josh77 on Jan 11, 2006 1:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The page you link to also says...

*Please note that this is not necessarily a complete listing, players are not necessarily guaranteed to be on the final BBWAA ballot, and players may return to active duty after they have retired.

It doesn't define what "active duty" is, either.

by Al on Jan 11, 2006 1:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Better

Here are the the rules from the official website on who is eligible.

C. Player shall have ceased to be an active player in the Major Leagues at least five (5) calendar years preceding the election but may be otherwise connected with baseball.

So that's official. As long as Ricky doesn't appear in a Major League game, he's fine. If you read otherwise (and I have found an article that said otherwise) that was just another "Mariotti" not knowing what he's talking about.

Baseball can be summed up in one word--you never know--Joaquin Andujar

by Josh77 on Jan 11, 2006 2:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Josh...

I think you misunderstood what I said, or maybe I just didn't make it clear.

I don't think Grace or Williams will get close. But I think they might get a little more support than what we expect them to. Players like them (esp. Grace) seem to be thought of a little more highly now with everything that's gone on in the game the last couple of years. I don't expect either to survive past their first year on the ballot, but I think we may be surprised with their votes.

If Walt Weiss and Gregg Jefferies are going to get votes, Grace and Williams might even survive the first year. It'll be interesting to see.

"If it takes forever."

by JDay on Jan 11, 2006 4:53 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Well

You didn't say what you expect them to get. I expect Mark Grace's HoF totals to be about what Keith Hernandez got--around 40-50 votes a year until he finally falls off the ballot after about four or five votes. Do you think he'll do better than that? Or do you think that I think that he'd only get Walt Weiss-like totals?

I never claimed that you thought Grace and Williams would come close to getting elected. But you made a claim that they'd do "better than we expect" without saying what you think we expect them to get. If my point is false, then I have no idea what your original post was about. For Grace to do "better than I expect" he'd have to pull in around 80-100 votes on the first ballot.

I also think that your (apparent) assumption that future voters will penalize players of this era for "steroids" is wrong. First, Williams and Grace would be a part of that "steroids era" so they wouldn't benefit. Secondly, the writers won't penalize someone on rumors and insinuation. Unless someone (Palmeiro) comes up with a positive test or admits it, not enough voters will make the adjustment to make a difference. Voters are already penalizing hitters from the 80's because their hit totals look unimpressive next to the hit totals of the 90's. I don't see any evidence that they plan on reversing course.

Baseball can be summed up in one word--you never know--Joaquin Andujar

by Josh77 on Jan 11, 2006 1:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Also little noted...

... was the fact that Pete Rose got ten write-in votes, which were ignored as they have been each time, since he is ineligible, and this would have been his final time on the writers' ballot anyway.

He's done, unless he gets reinstated, which I think won't happen.

Know what he's doing now? Hustling autographs at the Forum Shops at Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas.

Sad.

by Al on Jan 11, 2006 2:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs