Our New Stolen Base Threat

by Imtrejo on Jan 20, 2006 8:32 AM CST Comment 4 comments

With our new center fielder being a base stealing threat, finished second in the NL last season with 57, I thought he may be able to challenge the long standing record of 67, by Frank Chance(a first baseman) in 1903. Although it may be a long shot at least it's a shot for a 103 year old record.
I did a little research on the Cubs woes in the stolen base department and was pleasantly suprised. I was expecting the worst and only got kinda bad, let me also say I do not believe SB's are any particular indication of a winning or losing team, as pointed out in the data I collected. 1998 and 2003 we are in the bottom third, 1989 in the middle, 1984 the top five. I just thought this may be interesting to research(instead of working).
The data only went back only to 1980(I do have a job, kinda)and up to 2004. The Cubs as a team ranked 18th with 2550. Now keep in mind that the Marlins, Rockies, Devil Rays, and Diamondbacks have only been around for ten years plus for some reason the Angles were split into the California and Anaheim Angels(adding the two would make the Cubs 19th) so we will dismiss them. Leaving the Cubs at 18th out of 25 teams. Compare that to:
HR-12th
RUNS-18TH
RBI-17TH
BB-21ST
If any conclusion can be made of this, I guess it would be that 12th in HR + 21st in BB + 18th in SB = 17th in Runs and 18th in RBI. So, being in a "hitters" ballpark the Cubs offense has finished 17th or 18th out of 25 in the past 25 years, the reason 21st in BB. Not a great analysis I know but interesting.
Anyway, the Cubs did have one sparkling year, 1985, in which they finished second in stolen bases with 182. They finished second to the Cardinals with 314. 314!! But alas, there was also 1999 when they finished last with 60.

My data below...

YEAR--SB--SB%--RANK---
1980 93 59 17
1981 72 64 16
1982 132 65 13
1983 84 68 21
1984 154 70 5
1985 182 79 2
1986 132 68 13
1987 109 69 22
1988 120 72 14
1989 136 70 11
1990 151 75 6
1991 123 66 12
1992 77 60 23
1993 100 70 18
1994 69 56 18
1995 105 73 14
1996 108 68 14
1997 115 66 15
1998 65 59 29
1999 60 57 30
2000 93 71 16
2001 67 65 21
2002 63 75 27
2003 73 70 21
2004 66 70 23

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SBs

seem to correlate inversely with runs scored most of the time.

by Ienpw on Jan 20, 2006 8:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

the steal

The steal can be a big weapon if used correctly. If a team is waiting for the 3 run HR you're probably not going to risk it. The Cubs have been a team waiting too long. Pierre and just the THREAT of the steal can be just as big of a weapon. Pitchers will throw to first with the concern of a steal and hopefully lose concentration on the batter and we can parlay that into a walk with someone like Lee up with 2 men on. The steal can open up the infield with fielders moving and a routine ground ball can sometimes find a hole. I hope this pans out for us this year, it can be a real weapon.
Question Ienpw, how many times has Pierre stole third??? Maybe, just maybe, a guy on third with no outs could mean we figure out how to drive in a runner from third! Novel idea!

by mrcubsfan on Jan 20, 2006 8:56 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Runners in scoring position

Has been my problem with the Cubs offense for years. Never have I seen a team who consistantly strikes out or hits into the double play or the greatest pop up on the infield more than the Cubs do with runners on third and or second with less than two outs. Until the Cubs get a hitting coach that preaches patience and sittuational hitting, I'm not sure we are going to see an improvement. Baseball can be a very hard game or a somewhat simple game depending on your approach, the Cubs seems to love to make it difficult on themselves to much to be consistantly winning ball games.

First Boston, then the White Sox, its now the Cubs turn.

by indytaz on Jan 20, 2006 10:04 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Could the SB be making a comeback?

While the Moneyballers think it to risky, Whitey Herzog made the Cardinals the class of the NL in the 80's with the steal. With the drug testing policy now in place in MLB, I wonder if we will start to see a dropoff in power and if we will start to see teams go back to the SB. The stolen base brings an excitement to the game that I have mised over the last decade and a half.

by ccd on Jan 21, 2006 11:23 AM CST reply actions 0 recs