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Cedeno and the winter leagues

There's an article today on cubs.com that talks about the performances of various Cubs players in the winter leagues. Ronny Cedeno grabs the headline as he absolutely tore up the Venezuelan winter league. Which brings me to my point.

Many people seem to think that we currently have a gaping hole at shortstop. They dismiss Cedeno's winter ball numbers because the Venezuelan league is hitter-friendly.

We need to ease up on the panic button here and give Cedeno a chance. During his starting stint at the end of last summer, he played well and put up good numbers at the plate. Regardless of the hitters' advantage in Venezuela, he put up great numbers. All he's done since his call up is hit wherever he's gone. Maybe he won't pan out at shortstop, but the guy has certainly earned his shot. He's hitting .355 in Venezuela, so that should be encouraging. If he was hitting .270, then we should freak out.

As far as hitting in the winter leagues goes, if you think that averages in these are entirely overblown and hitters will fare worse in the regular season, then you better start lobbying to trade Pie RIGHT NOW for ANYTHING (even taking consideration that he played in a different league).

We may not be able to put a lot of stock in Cedeno's numbers in Venezuela, but here's an interesting note: Henry Blanco hit .263 there, 21 points higher than he hit last season. Cedeno hit .300 last year. So if you could assume a spike of about 25-30 point in batting average in Venezuela, then you still project Cedeno as a .300+ hitter (note: obviously, the number of at bats would have to figure into making a real, solid projection, but you can still spot a trend in a simple exercise such as this one).

The other thing people tend to cite to write off Cedeno is that most of his minor league number are lackluster. But if you stop and think about it, there have been a lot of very successful major leaguers who didn't post great numbers in the minors, and likewise, stud minor leaguers don't always become superstars in the bigs (<ahem>Corey!<ahem>). Cedeno could be one of the guys in the former category.

The moral of the story here is that we shouldn't look at SS as a gaping hole, because it's simply not true at this point. Cedeno's played very well and has earned his shot at the position, and it should be his unless he plays his way out of it. But instead of being pessimists about this, we should be excited by how well he's played and be optimistic that he'll really help this team.

As long as we try to build winners by bringing in hired guns, we're going to miss out on the big prize. We're going to have to suplement our lineup with home grown guys, or we're never going to be successful. That's all the more reason to support Cedeno and Murton.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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very true
but with the miggy decision we are going to no doubt give cedeno the nod at short.  if he could bat .270 with an obs around .330, hit maybe 10-15 homeruns and not k a lot while playing super defense, then we basically get furcal without the stolen bases.  however, it is a gamble.  but like you said, we gotta at least try it, and right now we dont have any other choice but to.  i am ok with this

by geetarnwhiskey on Jan 8, 2006 1:37 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

sorry
i meant obp around .330

by geetarnwhiskey on Jan 8, 2006 1:38 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I'm more okay.............
.........with Cedeno at 2B while Tejada handles the SS duties.

I don't think people are "anti-Cedeno" per se, but the thought of just him and Todd Walker in the middle is simply not enough, .

by tville on Jan 8, 2006 7:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

At this point...
... I think you can forget Tejada, as he has withdrawn his request to be traded.

I still think the Cubs are going to make a pitch for Barry Zito.

by Al on Jan 8, 2006 7:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Zito
I dont see how the Cubs can trade for Zito they would deal for Zito and not give up what other teams gave up for Hudson/Mulder which would be:

Rich Hill Angel Guzman Matt Murton

personally i dont want to give that up... Murton is basically all we got in LF...without Murton in left im not sure the Cubs average more than 2.5 runs a game... which no team can be a winning ball club doing that.sorry but the difference is too much.

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 8, 2006 7:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

al
"going to make a pitch for Barry Zito."

pun intended?

by tomas21 on Jan 9, 2006 8:45 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, no...
... but it makes a good one, doesn't it?

by Al on Jan 9, 2006 9:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think...
that's the general consensus of the management as well, JDay.

That's exactly why Hendry was unwilling to add Pie into the mix to acquire Tejada.  That's also exactly why the majority of people here agree with Hendry at this point.

And if all we're going to get for Patterson is a minor leaguer, I say we hold onto him for a while.  The Red Sox and a few other teams have glaring holes in CF.  They will eventually get desperate enough to give us something of reasonable value for Patterson.  We should just wait and be patient for now.

The only trade I'd remotely like at this point would be one that lands Zito, but only if he is almost certain to sign an extension on his coming here.

by nickler on Jan 8, 2006 1:39 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Murton and Zito
If what Murton showed us at the end of last year is for real and only the beginning, I absolutely want him in left field.

Guys who rack up the homeruns and strikeouts haven't helped us a whole lot. I'd love to see more high average/OBP guys and fewer all-or-nothing guys.

We'd be better off with more guys like Murton. As for Zito, I can only hope we pull this off. Even if it doesn't make us that much better, he would make things a lot more fun.

"If it takes forever."

by JDay on Jan 8, 2006 8:07 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Still don't understand
why Beane won't trade Zito now.

His value is highest right now having just finished the 2nd half of last season strong.  He's leaving at the end of next year anyhow.  

Last year, he started really poorly and didn't do all that well the year before, either.  Everyone thought he might be done.  We should have traded for him right then, right there.  

Anyhow, if he starts off that way again, his value will decrease.  

In addition, any team that gets him will basically want to sign him to an extension right away so that he's not a 1-year rent a player.  Zito won't do it if he's kicking butt and having a great year.

The best chance to sign him to a long term contract is now, when Zito himself doesn't know how well he'll do.  He may want to get the guaranteed contract rather than roll the dice on this season given that over the past 2 years his strongest showing was in the past half season.

In addition, teams like the Cubs, Rangers, Sox, etc. are still in contention.  If these teams fall out of contention by the trade deadline then they certainly won't give up top prospects for a guy who may only be around for a few months.

The point being:  Beane can get the best value for Zito now.  I just don't understand why he won't trade him while the getting is good.

by nickler on Jan 8, 2006 11:06 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Beane
also did this with Octavio Dotel.  Instead of trading while his value was high, he waited until Dotel got hurt.  And he got nothing in return.

If he doesn't trade Zito to us, then I hope Zito has a crappy 1st half, just like he did last year, so that the hated A's get little in return.

by nickler on Jan 8, 2006 11:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

"Hated A's"
I wouldn't say I hate them as they are the anti-Yankees.  Do you really hate them?  I would love to see Billy come to Chicago.
"You know what God told the cubs. Don't do anything until I get back!" Pete Rose

by Will71081 on Jan 9, 2006 10:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Beane
He may be assessing the teams chance for a World Series run.  Zito may be an integral part of that.  

by greggie44 on Jan 8, 2006 11:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually...
...it's more complicated than that.  Zito had a strong 2nd half last year, but he was just plain LOUSY in September and he was a big part of the reason the A's failed to keep pace with the Angels in the pennant race.

Did he run out of gas?  Perhaps, but he is only 27 and should be coming into the prime of his career.

I think Beane is pretty jazzed about how his rotation shapes up in 2005 and his ever day lineup looks pretty strong.  I think he feels he can compete with the Angels and Rangers as things now stand.

The off-season isn't over yet, and the Angels may yet make some moves, which may force Beane to counter.  But, as far as Zito is concerned, barring something unforeseen, Beane has indicated that Zito will start the season at the top of the rotation and , depending on how things go, that he would more likely look to trade him at the trade deadline than before the season starts.

by jazzman56 on Jan 9, 2006 1:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Because
he has a real good chance to win the AL West.

This isn't the KC Royals who've got no chance.  The Athletics are actually trying to win the World Series and they've got a better chance with Zito than without him.

Now if you blow him away with a trade, then he's willing to make a deal.  But he doesn't just see players as trading chits.  He held on to Dotel because Dotel was his closer and he needed one to win ballgames.  At that time, he didn't know that Huston Street was ready.

Baseball can be summed up in one word--you never know--Joaquin Andujar

by Josh77 on Jan 9, 2006 5:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The question, then, is...
... why did he trade Hudson & Mulder last winter? The A's were considered a contender then, too.

The answer is that he was trying to get something in return because he knew he'd lose them to free agency. The same is true with Zito.

The question then becomes, can the Cubs offer the A's anything that would keep them in contending status?

Or, work some sort of three-way deal to do so?

by Al on Jan 9, 2006 6:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

beane has made it pretty clear, imo
that he'd need a quality starting pitcher and at least one top-flight prospect.

put in cub perspective, that probably means a package on the order of maddux, pie and marshall.

by gaius marius on Jan 10, 2006 10:13 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And of course...
... that won't happen, as I don't see the A's interested in Maddux.

This is why I suggested a three-way deal, where some other team who might have a pitcher could give that pitcher to the A's, and then Cub prospects (Pie, Marshall, perhaps one or two others) could go to the A's and the third team.

If the Cubs could also get Jairo Garcia in such a deal, it'd be well worth it.

by Al on Jan 10, 2006 10:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

sure, but
you've just proposed a trade in which the cubs give up a few prospects for barry zito.

in my experience, that kind of trade is almost always far too imbalanced to actually happen. someone is getting shorted, and they won't go for it.

not to mention the fact that pie is -- whatever cub fans want to believe he is -- a prospect of questionable worth, thanks to his propensity to strike out every fourth at-bat.

by gaius marius on Jan 10, 2006 11:06 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Depends on who the prospects are, doesn't it?
I think the jury is still out on Pie, considering he is not quite 21 years old.

You may be right, but he is still young enough to develop some plate discipline.

by Al on Jan 10, 2006 12:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

and there's the whole question
of what it accomplishes. the cubs are, again, looking to start neifi, jacque and two rookies everyday this year -- while leaning on an ace that hasn't made more than 30 starts in any year, and a tail of the rotation that includes maddux, rusch and williams -- and a bullpen that isn't really improved from last year's, except to the extent that they may (or may not) be less injured this time around.

does zito propel that team to the playoffs by pushing rusch to the bench? in most any reasonable expectation, clearly no.

and then, after 2006 is over, you're faced with resigning him, aramis, pierre and lee?

as much as i wish the cubs would open the coffers to compete, that isn't in the business plan. so what is the point of getting zito?

by gaius marius on Jan 10, 2006 11:12 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You and I disagree...
... on whether Zito could lead the Cubs to the playoffs. You say no, I say yes.

It might be worth waiting till midseason. If the A's are not contending (unlikely, I know) and the Cubs are (also not probable), then Zito might become available.

by Al on Jan 10, 2006 12:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm kinda hoping...
that Zito has a really poor April- May like he did last year and that Beane gets scraps for Zito.  

At this point, I think he deserves it.  As a small market team, you have to find ways of cheaply getting better or maintaining a competitive standing with younger players.  Holding onto older players that will be leaving soon is not wise.

Hopefully, if Zito starts poorly, the A's will realize they should have traded him while the value was there and we can get him for a lot less than we otherwise would.

In the meantime, let's hope Rich Hill and Angel Guzman (at least one of them) turns out to be the real deal.

by nickler on Jan 11, 2006 2:26 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

mmm
Rich Hill and Angel Guzman (at least one of them) turns out to be the real deal.

Hopefully Hendry coveting Hill won't mess anything up. Don't know what to expect of Hill but kind of weary of him.

2006 -- AC036097 -- Eamus Catuli!

by priorpwnz on Jan 11, 2006 2:59 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I know...
but a couple of those games he pitched... WOW.  He looked GREAT.

As with anything, the more experience you get, the better you perform.  Even Jessica admits that when Maddux started he wasn't pretty.

Not everyone is a phenom at age 20.  Give the kid a chance.  If it weren't for our young, less expensive players that came up through our or another farm/minor league system (Zambrano, Prior, Murton, Cedeno) we wouldn't stand a chance this year, even with our high payroll.

by nickler on Jan 11, 2006 10:16 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

oh no
slight intended at all with Hill, my only source of hesitation comes from the fact that yes he's got a wicked curve, but he needs to sharpen up that fastball.

If you go back and look at the summer I was all for Hill, still am. Just a little hesitant now.

2006 -- AC036097 -- Eamus Catuli!

by priorpwnz on Jan 11, 2006 5:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i think hill
really could be the real thing. he is very hard to hit; his control improved in 2005 -- remains to be seen if that's ephemeral or not.

don't get me wrong -- he could be shipped in the right deal. but it would have to be for more than a four-month zito rental, imo, for a team probably going nowhere.

by gaius marius on Jan 11, 2006 12:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

how come
if we get zito, we're still going nowhere, but we should go after weaver?
am i missing something?

also, what do you want to bet that neifi is not the starting second baseman on opening day. you keep supporting your pessimistic outlook by saying that no team starting jacque, neifi (who won't be starting, and two rookies (neither of whom are rookies).

neifi was never going to start. the only reason trading walker would make sense is if they had another ss or second baseman acquired. if they got furcal/tejada, cedeno would play short, walker would be traded and neifi would back-up. i think the only reason they still aren't outright denying walker rumors is because they are still looking at lugo.

by tomas21 on Jan 13, 2006 11:54 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

isn't Lugo
some sort of wife-beater?

by nickler on Jan 13, 2006 8:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

my baseball america
prospect report says that Cedeno went 2 for 4 yesterday and is hitting .294. It may just be the playoffs, I dunno

by Ienpw on Jan 9, 2006 9:11 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

as long as
We need to ease up on the panic button here and give Cedeno a chance

you're ready to ease up on the panic button when the cubs are in fourth later this year, by all means -- don't panic.

there's more to the winter league atory with cedeno -- most importantly, that the kid is having problems drawing walks even in that notoriously obp-friendly league. major league pitching is simply going to eat him alive if that persists.

by gaius marius on Jan 9, 2006 5:08 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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