Daisuke Matsuzaka Posted
The first of many tests for the Cubs off-season has arrived. Will the Cubs submit a bid?
Or is Hendry too busy wining and dining his 52 managerial candidates?
STAY TUNED!!!
Highly regarded pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka was given permission by the Seibu Lions on Tuesday to pursue a career in the major leagues, according to local media reports.Matsuzaka is still one year away from becoming a free agent but Seibu is expected to use the posting system in which major league teams present bids for Japanese players with the highest bidder winning negotiating rights, Kyodo News agency reported Tuesday.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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78 comments
Comments
Matsuzaka......
With the Yankees losing in the first round, George will go after him hard....
by timeforachange on Oct 10, 2006 11:31 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
do we
also, do we get to find out what the winning bid is?
by tomas21 on Oct 10, 2006 11:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Open the Wallet, Jimmy
by 08Cubs on Oct 10, 2006 11:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You mean
Maybe you're refering to Hideki Irabu is my guess. I think that's far enough in the past the it won't stop King George from opening his wallet here. The Yankees need good pitching more than they need anything else. Jarrett Wright starting an elimination game for the Yankees? They need pitching.
by pageian on Oct 10, 2006 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You act as though it's Hendry's wallet...
Hendry hardly has carte blanche to just spend whenever he feels like it.
It always goes back to the Trib.
by theprognosticator on Oct 10, 2006 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
So yeah, I would guess the Cubs will bid so that's not really a test of management, unless they don't bid then it becomes a test of competence. The real test will be how much they offer, did they do their homework, is the offer in line with his talent, is it competitive, did they bid too much, too little in a serious bid etc etc.....
Basically, we'll find out a little bit about whether they know what they're doing or no. That is if we get to see who bid what, which I don't think happens. So we'll probably never know.
by pageian on Oct 10, 2006 11:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i wonder
an american team wouldn't do that, but the culture there is obviously different, and i don't know enough about it to say.
by tomas21 on Oct 10, 2006 11:51 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The posting system.......
by PriorandAramisfan23 on Oct 10, 2006 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreement
After the poor pitching performance of the Yankees in the ALDS, I would expect Brian Cashman to put in a huge posting bid, so don't get excited about Daisuke-san playing in Chicago unless he's on a road trip. I expect a posting bid of $25-30M to be the winner, with a 3 year contract for Daisuke-san of about $10-12M a year. Remember that even if a club is awarded the negotiating rights, Daisuke-san can still refuse to sign a contract here in the US and stay in Japan next season. He could then wait until the 2008 season and leverage a higher contract out of a club as a regular free agent. I don't expect this to happen either, because he desperately wants to come over here and kick the crap out of American hitters. Nobody realizes how competitive and fired-up Daisuke-san is - the stuff you saw in the WBC is his early-season form; watch videos of Game 1 of the playoffs vs. Softbank and you'll soon realize that this is no Hideki Irabu or Hideo Nomo. God, I wish the Cubs could get him.
by TMOX on Oct 10, 2006 7:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As a matter of fact
by bloopsingle on Oct 10, 2006 8:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
148 KPH
If you watch the ESPN footage of the WBC, he's hitting 92-94 consistently on their gun.
by Josh77 on Oct 10, 2006 8:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you
by bloopsingle on Oct 10, 2006 8:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kmh to Mph
by TMOX on Oct 10, 2006 8:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Hendry will take a shot...
by BlueBooHoo on Oct 10, 2006 11:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hednry will bid
by Scott G F on Oct 10, 2006 12:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Correct.
Not to mention one of the top pitchers in the world.
by Al on Oct 10, 2006 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stop yourself
Enough.
by BlueBooHoo on Oct 10, 2006 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only if you'll stop
by Perkins on Oct 10, 2006 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's an anonymous chat board Francis
No soup for you. Next !
by BlueBooHoo on Oct 10, 2006 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No soup for me?
by Perkins on Oct 10, 2006 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh god,
by LilLPLancer23 on Oct 10, 2006 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
P.S.
by BlueBooHoo on Oct 10, 2006 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's not allowed
by tharr on Oct 10, 2006 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
By Asian market I mean
What's the loss here? New market, new money. The Trib doesn't like to give money away.
This is a no brainer to me. Make the bold move now, see the reward next spring and summer.
by Scott G F on Oct 10, 2006 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you knew much about asians,,,
by CubFaninCA on Oct 10, 2006 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps tho,,,
I know a lot of Koreans here in SoCal (I dated one for 5 years) and they could give a damn about Ichiro or Matsui or any of the Japanese the Dodgers have had. Their papers focuses on their own, Choi, Kim, Seo, Park, etc.
That was just an ignorant post.
by CubFaninCA on Oct 10, 2006 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Other Asians
PS Claiming to be an expert on Asia because you used to date a Korean is sort of like saying that you stayed in a Holiday Inn Express last night.
PPS Anybody calls me Frances, and I'll kill you!
by TMOX on Oct 10, 2006 7:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's the Japanese market
by CubFaninCA on Oct 10, 2006 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
4.35% Asian according to the US Census
by colossus on Oct 10, 2006 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm
by CubFaninCA on Oct 10, 2006 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
by BlueBooHoo on Oct 10, 2006 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
by CubFaninCA on Oct 10, 2006 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, wait a minute...
by BlueBooHoo on Oct 10, 2006 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Al
Or I'm just a bigger dumbass than I thought.
by colossus on Oct 10, 2006 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd love for the Cubs to get him.
by Al on Oct 10, 2006 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just got the vibe
by colossus on Oct 10, 2006 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seibu
It made no sense for Seibu not to post him. They could either post him this year and get $20-25 million for him, or watch him leave for America after next season and get nothing.
If it were up to me, I'd pretty much put our entire off-season budget into the posting fee. (Not counting re-signing Aramis) No one else on the market is going to help us long term like Matsuzaka would.
by Josh77 on Oct 10, 2006 12:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
After re-signing Ramirez,
by Maddog on Oct 10, 2006 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you sure?
We also don't know if the Cubs are going to up payroll, lower payroll or keep it the same. We just don't know how much they are going to have available. In any case $10 million after signing ARam seems a little low.
Plus, would they count the posting fee towards this years payroll or would the Trib Co. write it off as a one time expense? If they won the bidding how much would they have tabbed in salary for Matsuzaka? Too many questions we don't have answers too yet.
by pageian on Oct 10, 2006 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's not likely
the cubs payroll for next year, assuming we keep z and ramirez, is about 75 million.
you are estimating zambrano will make 12 million. this is unlikely. oswalt makes for a useful comparison. after a 2005 season in which oswalt went 20-12 an ERA under 3, a k:bb ratio over 3:1, a whip of 1.2 and led his team to the world series, he went from a salary of 5.9 to 11 million, a 5.1 mil raise (an 86% raise).
zambrano had a very good season, but not comparable to oswalt's 2005 season. a 16-7 record, 2 missed starts, an ERA of 3.41, k:bb ratio of under 2:1, a whip of 1.29. you aer suggesting that after this season, he will get a comparable raise to what osalt got after his spectacular 2005 season--not likely in my estimation.
also, i think its unlikely hendry signs ramirez to a 15 for 4 or 5 contract. i think its more likely he'd get 11 this year, 13 next, 15 in 09 and 16 in 2010.
but even if we use your numbers, which i feel are inflated, the cubs would be at 78 mil. you are suggesting the cubs would go into next year with an 88 mil salary? that doesn't seem likely. i think the cubs salary stands at 72-74 after signing ramirez and z, and a budget of 95-100. that leaves something in the neighborhood of 24-28, a big difference from 10.
that being said, i think there is virtually no chance of the cubs signing matusaka. if it takes 20-30 mil to post him plus another 5-10 for salary, that would eat up the entire budget for the year and then some. and when mcdonough has already publically intimated that a payroll of 100 mil is likely, and the tribune is having public financial distress, we can pretty much dismiss the notion of matusaka wearing cubbie blue.
by tomas21 on Oct 10, 2006 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup,,,,
The naysayers are spinning out of control.
by CubFaninCA on Oct 10, 2006 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly...
by Maddog on Oct 10, 2006 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just trying to pain the picture as accurately
If the Cubs sign him to a longterm contract, they could backload it, but I don't imagine Z signing for less than 5/75. He'll get much more than that if he waits a year to hit the free agent market.
Ramirez is the 2nd best player available on the free agent market. He's the best 3rd baseman available on the market. It's possible, though doubtful, that the Cubs get him for cheaper than he'd get on the open market, but this is a guy who stands to make 5/75 at least on the open market. Again, maybe this deal is backloaded. I don't know, but I'm taking the average of what he's going to be offered by at least one other team on the open market. If Ramirez is making less than $13 million next season I'll be very surprised.
The payroll as it stands right now without the inclusion of ANY auto-renewal contracts, arbitration eligible player (Prior, Ohman, and Zambrano), or the non-active players on the 40-man roster is at $55 million. Add, let's just say, $22 million onto that for Ramirez and Zambrano--a number that is far lower than they are worth--the payroll is then at $77 million. Prior will get $3.5 million and Ohman $1 million. We're up to $81.5 million.
That $81.5 million DOES NOT include the salaries of the auto-renewal players (all players not eligible for free agency or arbitration on the 25-man roster) and it doesn't include the 15 players that are on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster (these guys make no less than $50,000).
We're basically looking at somewhere between $1 and 5 million depending on how many auto-renewal players are on the active roster. Let's split the difference and add $2.5 million to the $81.5 million.
That's $84 million. The payroll this season was a tad over $94 million. McDonough has said the payroll will be in the "vicinity" of what it was this season (means it could go up a little bit or even go down a little bit).
So, for the interest of being as accurate as possible, let's say the payroll could increase as much as $5 million and decrease that same amount as well. We're looking at $10 million left to spend +/- $5 million.
This is an accurate picture, tomas. I don't need to make stuff up to make the Cubs look bad. They do that all by themselves.
This team would have $10 million, plus or minus $5 million left to spend if they re-signed Ramirez AND Zambrano to a combined 2007 total salary of $22 million--$11 million apiece, which, is what you said they'd make.
I don't like that you said I was trying to paint any kind of picture. I wouldn't do that. If I'm going to take to the time to post anything, no matter how little in content, it's going to be as accurate as possible because that's just how I am.
Now, if the Cubs are to get insurance for Rusch, or trade Dempster for minor leaguers, then you can add $3 or $8 million onto that number above. Their future player moves WILL most certainly have an affect on the money Hendry has to work with. But as of RIGHT NOW, assuming the payroll is between $90 and $100 million, they have between $5 and $15 million to spend, respectively.
by Maddog on Oct 10, 2006 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your assumption...
However, it does NOT take into account the fact that management there knows how bad the Cubs sucked in 2006, and that they cannot continue in this way to just open the doors and see people stream in. The empty seats in September told them that.
Further, they will also lose TV ad revenue (which mostly goes back to them because they own WGN and a share of CSN), and perhaps corporate sponsorship revenue. That's where the big bux are, as you know.
Only by making BOLD, BIG and yes, EXPENSIVE moves, can they possibly make this team good enough to create enough buzz so that they can market it over the winter.
There's a marketing guy in charge now. He knows this. I know it hasn't happened yet, but McDonough has not been a failure at his job. I expect him to succeed in his new position.
by Al on Oct 10, 2006 6:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Accounting for Posting Bid
by TMOX on Oct 10, 2006 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
95-100
maybe the trib will decide to open up the checkbook for some of these moves you describe, but that would represent a pretty big change from their usual behavior. and with the trib situation kinda rocky right now, i don't know how likely that is.
by tomas21 on Oct 10, 2006 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's possible, Al,
To be honest, and consistent myself, I pay almost no attention to people who runs sports franchises or those who play for them because their statements usually have no value whatsoever. But, I think the Tribune has shown itself to be a team that isn't going to overspend so what McDonough says is merely "evidence" to provide in discussion.
I don't believe for a second that the Tribune would announce if they were raising payroll or that they'll give us any indication at all what it's going to be. So until I see that "vicinity" broken, I'm going to believe that's where the payroll will be.
I might ultimately be wrong.
by Maddog on Oct 10, 2006 11:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
maddog
if that's the case, that would leave something closer to what i suggested. if i am missing something, i apologize for coming across as insulting. when you said the cubs would have 10 mil in budget to spend, based on my understanding of the numbers, that is painting things as bleak as possible. sounds as though that was not your intention, so its either a numbers mistake by you or by me.
i hope that i'm not surprised to see dempster in another uniform being paid a slary by another team next year. that would help things as well.
by tomas21 on Oct 10, 2006 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're absolutely RIGHT!
I still think both Z and Ramirez get more than you think they're going to get. Change that $84 million figure down to $79-80 million...that's what I think it will be after arbitration AND re-signing Ramirez.
You were right the first time, though.
by Maddog on Oct 10, 2006 11:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think
it'll be really interesting to see what happens to the roster and hendry's job if ramirez walks. imo, hendry should be fired immediately if he walks, and the retooling should begin. i think it will be next to impossible to build a contender next year without significantly increasing the budget, and impossible to build a contender if ramirez walks regardless of budget.
they could have semi-retooled if hendry would have traded pierre and ramirez ant mid-season and possibly competed this year, depending on who they received in return and what free agent moves they made. too bad.
by tomas21 on Oct 11, 2006 12:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aramis Ramirez
by BlueBooHoo on Oct 10, 2006 2:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Only an ass
Obviously you know nothing about business in spite of your assertions. You've already proven that the discussion of baseball is beyond your means. And your lack of interpersonal skills are well documented.
Since you seem to have an abundance of time to try and elevate your lack of self esteem, I can only assume that makes your life as pathetic as you claim everyone else's is.
Conclusion: You are irrelevant as are your biased opinions.
by tharr on Oct 10, 2006 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I'm an ass
by BlueBooHoo on Oct 10, 2006 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now that you've taken the guesswork out of it
by tharr on Oct 10, 2006 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
what an idiot
That said, I do agree the Cubs should dump him, but not for your reasoning, as you speak out of your ass like a blithering idiot at a constant rate, but only because I think the Cubs can't contend in the near future, and they need to dump salary by letting expensive free agents like Ramirez go and trading their expensive veterans from Barrett to Eyre/Howry, and concentrate on rebuilding (assuming they will never spend like they are capable). Ramirez has no place on a team that is going no where, but if the Cubs actually had any hope to contend, it would be nothing short of moronic to let him go if he wanted more than 10 million dollars per year. If we were competing, he is worth 15 mil a year if not more.
by Thelonious on Oct 10, 2006 8:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Follow the money
The other is the number that MacPhail used and is presumably the same one that McDonough talks about. That number includes payroll burden and includes things like employee's contribution to social security and medicare and additional add on costs.
The number used by ESPN is about $94M and the number the Cubs use is about $8M more.
So when we discuss how much we can expect to have available, it's important to factor in the $8M in making things balance.
That being said, I'd estimate that it might take a $30M bid to get Matsuzaka. However, if we amortize the bid over 5 years that's only $6M per year. Add in the annual salary and that's what he'd cost us. Remember that he's not a free agent and is virtually assured to get a lower salary than he could negotiate as a free agent. So, the Cubs might be able to get him for $6M per year for 5 years based adjusted for inflation.
Also recall that the past two years the Cubs have not spent money at All Star break as they promised if in the hunt. Additionally, add in the increased revenue that has been flowing into the coffers.
In summary, the Cubs CAN make a strong case IF they wish. The question is....Will they?
by tharr on Oct 10, 2006 2:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
not sure
by tomas21 on Oct 10, 2006 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What they'll do
by tharr on Oct 10, 2006 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You watch a lot of CNBC in between
by BlueBooHoo on Oct 10, 2006 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only manure I see
by tharr on Oct 10, 2006 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
can I have
You have to realize that you are the quintessential running joke of BCB.
by Faith plus 1 on Oct 10, 2006 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So...
by Perkins on Oct 10, 2006 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
however
by Faith plus 1 on Oct 10, 2006 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
According to Rotowire
Now we may only have a 1 in 7 chance of getting the guy, but we are now at least being mentioned as a contender.
Additionally, Matsuzaka is being represented by Scott Boras. This is probably good news for us, as the Cubs have always had a good relationship with Boras whereas at least two teams on that list, the Rangers and the Dodgers, have not.
Of course, it also means that Matsuzaka won't come cheap.
by Josh77 on Oct 10, 2006 3:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'll be shocked
I imagine one will get Zito if the other gets Matsuzaka.
by colossus on Oct 10, 2006 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Since it's a blind bid
by tharr on Oct 10, 2006 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think
by tomas21 on Oct 10, 2006 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
by Josh77 on Oct 10, 2006 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Leverage
by TMOX on Oct 10, 2006 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is good
by Bleacherbum369 on Oct 10, 2006 8:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If either the Yankees or Red Sox get Matsuzaka
by colossus on Oct 10, 2006 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually...
by KChiCubs on Oct 10, 2006 11:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Zito and Karma
This will also depend on whom the Cubs hire as manager.
Prior is the wild card in all of this. The question is, does Prior want to stick around for the Cubs or be cut loose and try to rebuild his career somewhere else. Or does he want to reward Chicago for sticking with him and try to get Zito to help the Cubs to the WS? Zambrano, Zito, Prior (healthy), Hill, Marmol(Mateo, Marshall) might result in some wins in my estimation.(sarcasm)
Zito has got to see what happened to other pitchers that went to the New York meat grinder. Pitchers that took the money ended up flat on their face. Zito is very big into what feels right and not what looks right on a paycheck. He's a soulful dude from laid back California. So was Dusty, which is not what Chicago needed in the manager role with the personnel in place. But as a pitcher, it just might work better. He'll be good for Prior and the entire staff.
Then sign Soranano for the big bat. Then the cubs will contend.
by Scott G F on Oct 11, 2006 7:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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