2007 Cubs ZiPS Projections
Now, before you gloss over it, please read their disclaimer.
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Now, some thoughts:
That last little bit completely floored me, to the extent that I was trying to find an excuse to post a Player Spotlight that didn't make me look like I was on crack. Simply put, ZiPS likes Hill better than practically every other pitcher in baseball with minimal MLB experience. The strides he's made in in the last year have turned his career around, as we saw after the All-Star break in the majors. The turnaround from 2005 to 2006 in the minors was just as pronounced, as Hill went from allowing a home run every 6 innings to allowing a home run every 33 innings.
It's not full proof by any means, but it's pretty interesting to look at just the same.
Just for giggles, some of their 06 projections and what actually happened (I only included guys who stayed healthy)
Ramirez
ZiPS - .302/.359/.541
Actual - .291/.352/.561
Barrett
ZiPs - .276/.342/.468
Actual - .307/.368/.517
Murton
ZiPs - .289/.350/.430
Actual - .297/.365/.444
Zambrano
ZiPs - 3.40 ERA, 209 INN, 198 Ks
Actual - 3.41 ERA, 214 INN, 210 Ks
Maddux
ZiPs - 4.14 ERA, 215 INN, 129 Ks
Actual - 4.20 ERA, 210 INN, 117 KS
Pierre
ZiPS - .293/.346/.364, 198 H
Actual - .292/.330/.388, 204 H
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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38 comments
Comments
Zips?
by Blood Brother on Oct 18, 2006 8:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I thought
by cubbiejulie on Oct 19, 2006 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Manic Mailman
by Blood Brother on Oct 19, 2006 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does no one get this reference?
by cubbiejulie on Oct 20, 2006 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some of those
by Tekboy on Oct 18, 2006 8:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
by cubbiejulie on Oct 18, 2006 8:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Murton
I really hope the cubs decide to not trade him this offseason.
by deanosaur on Oct 18, 2006 10:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think they'll keep Murton.
Interesting to see this confirm the conventional wisdom on our starting rotation - we really do only have 2 starters going into next year.
by jamie on Oct 19, 2006 7:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Murton
by BlueMike on Oct 19, 2006 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
rumor
pierre is unlikely to be back. i know its difficult for you to accept since you posted 11,000 times that he was 99% to return, but its true. its not impossible that he'll be back, just unlikely.
by tomas21 on Oct 19, 2006 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You might want to acquaint
by BlueMike on Oct 19, 2006 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You might want to acquaint yourself
Throwing a big contract at Pierre is the absolute wrong move for a player in decline. Hendry can't change what's happened in the past and he can't undo the trade that brought him here, but hopefully he understands what a sunk cost is and lets Pierre walk away.
by Scott on Oct 19, 2006 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meet the Cubs
All kidding aside, Sign Soriano to play center, sign a cheap platoon partner for Jones (I've said it before and I'll say it again, Jones is a good player if you platoon him), and you're left with an outfield of Murton, Soriano, and Jones/platoon partner. I would love that outfield.
by tal1286 on Oct 19, 2006 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Soriano in Center
And I am terrified that it will happen becuase it is a good PR move which the sheep on BCB and Gaius's followers will think is a good move. Its not. Its better than signing C Lee, but over all its a stupid stupid move. Soriano is a great signing for a team which needs a DH who can play on occasion in LF. Its an adequate move for a team that really needs offense and does not have a good option in LF or 2B. Those don't describe the Cubs. It would be like the Arizona Cardinals in football going out and trading for Tom Brady and Michael Vick in the offseason.
by Frustrated Fan on Oct 19, 2006 10:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
I never said I want Juan Pierre back. But read my lips...Jim Hendry and Sweet Lou want Pierre back, and because of that I think he will be back to be paired up with a new left fielder. Unless of course Hendry can determine fairly rapidly if either Andruw Jones or Vernon Wells can be pried away from their current ballclubs.
by BlueMike on Oct 20, 2006 8:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My 2 cents.....
by cubboy89 on Oct 20, 2006 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
please
by kylejo on Oct 20, 2006 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly.......
by PriorandAramisfan23 on Oct 20, 2006 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't count on Dempster
by DudeVf1 on Oct 18, 2006 9:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Could you enlighten us
by tharr on Oct 19, 2006 3:44 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Projections for Blanco and Soto...
AVG/OBP/SLG
Blanco 225/276/398
Soto 234/303/331
Higher OBP for Soto, higher SLG for Blanco. Using Aaron Gleeman's GPA as a measure of overall value, we get the following comparison:
GPA
Blanco .224
Soto .219
So, ZiPS expects Blanco to be slightly more productive with the bat than Soto. I think we'd all agree that Blanco has an edge defensively as well, so maybe it wouldn't be such a bad idea to sign Blanco to a one-year deal, assuming the money used ($1.5M?) wouldn't prohibit the Cubs from signing other players. I personally believe that Soto has more offensive upside than Blanco, and while not as good defensively as Blanco, has an above-average glove, and would make a fine backup catcher for the league minimum. Resigning Blanco to a cheap one-year deal would be ok, but it could take away resources that could otherwise be used to add an actual hitter to the bench.
by mportsch on Oct 19, 2006 9:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Here is a case...
I doubt that spending $1 or $2 million on Henry Blanco would prevent another decent backup player from being added to the bench.
Sign Blanco. For that money, he's worth it.
Now, if someone else offers him MORE than that -- well then, you can't compete with that, can you.
by Al on Oct 19, 2006 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i bet
dusty said the same thing about neifi last off-season. sure there are intangibles, but defensive catchers are a dime a dozen. paying 2 million dollars for one is the same kind of foolishness that made us pay 10 million dollars for neifi and rusch because they filled a role. but i really think it is a mistake to sign players who fill an easily and cheaply replaced role to multi-million dollar contracts.
i bet you're right, that he will be resigned, but i really feel like these type of contracts are what kill teams.
by tomas21 on Oct 19, 2006 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't you think...
I agree, the Neifi and Rusch deals were ridiculous. But if the payroll is indeed going to be increased to $115-$120 million, then spending (say) $1.5-$2 million on Henry Blanco isn't going to kill anything.
by Al on Oct 19, 2006 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, fine...
by shawndgoldman on Oct 19, 2006 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he
and regardless of what the payroll is, it will be 2 million dollars per player smaller if people like blanco, rusch and neifi are signed to retail deals.
by tomas21 on Oct 19, 2006 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Splitting hairs...
I disagree that the backup catcher and utility infielder have an equal importance to the team. Your backup catcher likely starts 30-40 games a year, has to handle the pitching staff as well as be a good defender throwing out runners. A FAR more important position.
Rusch & Perez weren't worth it. IMO, Blanco is.
by Al on Oct 19, 2006 7:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
by danimal15 on Oct 19, 2006 3:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
im a big fan of
by kylejo on Oct 19, 2006 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't Wuertz...
by Perkins on Oct 19, 2006 11:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he becomes the Cubs closer
by VS on Oct 19, 2006 11:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha ha!
by danimal15 on Oct 20, 2006 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd agree with that too.
OK, there. I've said one good thing about Piniella being the manager!
by Al on Oct 20, 2006 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i thought it was
by kylejo on Oct 20, 2006 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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