2007 Cubs ZiPS Projections

by VS on Oct 18, 2006 7:32 PM CDT

Now, before you gloss over it, please read their disclaimer.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Now, some thoughts:

Lee (.299/.383/.567) and Ramirez (.296/.355/.559) seem extremely reasonable. ZiPS is actually more optimistic when it comes to Lee than I am.

They give Murton a 15% chance at putting up a .315/.388/.515 line. Freaking awsome.

One of Howry or Wuertz has to be our new closer next season. ZiPS is really down on Aardsma and high on Dempster, which I found surprising.

Hill. Ah, Rich Hill. 15% chance of doing this - 2.69 ERA/192 Innings/218 Ks

That last little bit completely floored me, to the extent that I was trying to find an excuse to post a Player Spotlight that didn't make me look like I was on crack. Simply put, ZiPS likes Hill better than practically every other pitcher in baseball with minimal MLB experience. The strides he's made in in the last year have turned his career around, as we saw after the All-Star break in the majors. The turnaround from 2005 to 2006 in the minors was just as pronounced, as Hill went from allowing a home run every 6 innings to allowing a home run every 33 innings.

It's not full proof by any means, but it's pretty interesting to look at just the same.

Just for giggles, some of their 06 projections and what actually happened (I only included guys who stayed healthy)

Ramirez
ZiPS - .302/.359/.541
Actual - .291/.352/.561

Barrett
ZiPs - .276/.342/.468
Actual - .307/.368/.517

Murton
ZiPs - .289/.350/.430
Actual - .297/.365/.444

Zambrano
ZiPs - 3.40 ERA, 209 INN, 198 Ks
Actual - 3.41 ERA, 214 INN, 210 Ks

Maddux
ZiPs - 4.14 ERA, 215 INN, 129 Ks
Actual - 4.20 ERA, 210 INN, 117 KS

Pierre
ZiPS - .293/.346/.364, 198 H
Actual - .292/.330/.388, 204 H

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Comments

Zips?

As in the US Postal Service mascot????

... but ya DOESN'T have to call me "Johnson." - Raymond J. Johnson, Jr.

by Blood Brother on Oct 18, 2006 8:15 PM CDT reply actions

Wow!

I didn't think anyone else remembered him. His name is actually Mr. Zip:

by Al Yellon on Oct 19, 2006 3:18 AM CDT up reply actions

I thought

their mascot was Manic Mailman?

"It's hard to put your finger on it. You have to have a dullness of mind and spirit to play here." --Jim Brosnan

by cubbiejulie on Oct 19, 2006 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions

Manic Mailman

replaced Mr. Zip. Mr. Zip was much cooler.

... but ya DOESN'T have to call me "Johnson." - Raymond J. Johnson, Jr.

by Blood Brother on Oct 19, 2006 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions

Does no one get this reference?

How disappointing.

"It's hard to put your finger on it. You have to have a dullness of mind and spirit to play here." --Jim Brosnan

by cubbiejulie on Oct 20, 2006 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions

Some of those

predictions are incredibly close!

"I lof to hit de home ron."

by Tekboy on Oct 18, 2006 8:38 PM CDT reply actions

Interesting

That's really interesting. I'm pulling for the optimistic 15% on Murton. Unless, of course, he winds up with another team. Then I hope he bottoms out.

"It's hard to put your finger on it. You have to have a dullness of mind and spirit to play here." --Jim Brosnan

by cubbiejulie on Oct 18, 2006 8:46 PM CDT reply actions

Murton

Even if he ends up with another team, it'd be pretty cool if he did really well. Except if those teams are in the NL central, are the Mets, Yankees, or White Sox.

I really hope the cubs decide to not trade him this offseason.

by deanosaur on Oct 18, 2006 10:57 PM CDT up reply actions

I think they'll keep Murton.

He's the real deal, and I don't think Hendry will trade him. If there is one statistic we know Hendry looks at, it's batting avg., and Murton did hit .297 this year. I think that "optimistic" line is right on track, and I hope somebody shows this to Hendry.

Interesting to see this confirm the conventional wisdom on our starting rotation - we really do only have 2 starters going into next year.

by jamie @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Oct 19, 2006 7:31 AM CDT up reply actions

Murton

Right or wrong, the odds of Matt Murton playing for the Cubs in 2007 are not good. Sweet Lou likes Juan Pierre and Jones is under contract. Either Alfonso Soriano is this team's new left fielder, or a major run producer.

by BlueMike on Oct 19, 2006 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions

rumor

was the cubs were talking to soriano about playing center field. if that's the case, they could keep murton in left and live with his relative lack of power as a left fielder.

pierre is unlikely to be back. i know its difficult for you to accept since you posted 11,000 times that he was 99% to return, but its true. its not impossible that he'll be back, just unlikely.

by tomas21 on Oct 19, 2006 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions

You might want to acquaint

yourself with the comments Sweet Lou made on Tuesday regarding Juan Pierre. Sounds to me as a player he really likes, and wants back. Hendry paid a king's ransom for Pierre, so hearing Sweet Lou sing his praises surely was sweet music. Pierre will be back.

by BlueMike on Oct 19, 2006 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions

You might want to acquaint yourself

with the concept of sunk costs.

Throwing a big contract at Pierre is the absolute wrong move for a player in decline. Hendry can't change what's happened in the past and he can't undo the trade that brought him here, but hopefully he understands what a sunk cost is and lets Pierre walk away.

by Scott @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Oct 19, 2006 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions

Meet the Cubs

We never took intro to microeconomics. Need Proof? Meet Mr. Jones. He's our right fielder.

All kidding aside, Sign Soriano to play center, sign a cheap platoon partner for Jones (I've said it before and I'll say it again, Jones is a good player if you platoon him), and you're left with an outfield of Murton, Soriano, and Jones/platoon partner. I would love that outfield.

by tal1286 on Oct 19, 2006 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions

Soriano in Center

Why in the world do otherwise rational people continue to suggest Soriano in CF. He's never played the position. He was a TERRIBLE left fielder this year. (He had a lot of misplays that were not errors because you have to touch the ball to get an error. Running the wrong way doesn't give you an error.) He was a terrible second baseman. The one thing he has is an "arm". BFD. Soriano in CF is a gamble beyond all reasonable gambles. And its an idiotic move.

And I am terrified that it will happen becuase it is a good PR move which the sheep on BCB and Gaius's followers will think is a good move. Its not. Its better than signing C Lee, but over all its a stupid stupid move. Soriano is a great signing for a team which needs a DH who can play on occasion in LF. Its an adequate move for a team that really needs offense and does not have a good option in LF or 2B. Those don't describe the Cubs. It would be like the Arizona Cardinals in football going out and trading for Tom Brady and Michael Vick in the offseason.

by Frustrated Fan on Oct 19, 2006 10:50 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes

Alfonso Soriano is a candidate for left field, and left field only. Be it with the Cubs, or any other major league franchise. His days of playing 2nd base are over. And the idea of putting him in center preposterous.

I never said I want Juan Pierre back. But read my lips...Jim Hendry and Sweet Lou want Pierre back, and because of that I think he will be back to be paired up with a new left fielder. Unless of course Hendry can determine fairly rapidly if either Andruw Jones or Vernon Wells can be pried away from their current ballclubs.

by BlueMike on Oct 20, 2006 8:51 AM CDT up reply actions

My 2 cents.....

....sign Soriano to play LF (no way he should even be considered as the starting CF), sign Pierre, although I think he wants to test the free agent market and, for some reason, doesn't want to return to the Cubs, imo. You can then platoon Murton and Jones in RF.

by cubboy89 on Oct 20, 2006 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions

please

dont sign pierre, felix pie has a better arm, infinitely more power, and has shown great development and adjusted to every level of play he has faced.

by kylejo on Oct 20, 2006 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions

exactly.......

n/t.

"Some advice: Stop worrying about being a good corporate citizen."-Phil Rodgers to Jim Hendry 10/6/06

by PriorandAramisfan23 on Oct 20, 2006 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions

I wouldn't count on Dempster

having a great season next year. I'd be in favor of using our younger pitchers in the pen if our manager has any confidence in them, but Lou is probably alot like Dusty in this regard...If I can improve the team by trading Eyre, Howry and Dempster absolutely I'd do it, I think there are enough failed starters with good stuff in our system to fill out that pen nicely.

by DudeVf1 on Oct 18, 2006 9:11 PM CDT reply actions

Could you enlighten us

what the formula for Zip includes. Particularly how is the EqA is projected? Thanks for the info.

Players win awards but teams win championships.

by tharr on Oct 19, 2006 3:44 AM CDT reply actions

Projections for Blanco and Soto...

I know this is a minor debate (after all, it's just the backup catcher), but here's the projections for Blanco and Soto:

AVG/OBP/SLG
Blanco 225/276/398
Soto 234/303/331

Higher OBP for Soto, higher SLG for Blanco. Using Aaron Gleeman's GPA as a measure of overall value, we get the following comparison:

GPA
Blanco .224
Soto .219

So, ZiPS expects Blanco to be slightly more productive with the bat than Soto. I think we'd all agree that Blanco has an edge defensively as well, so maybe it wouldn't be such a bad idea to sign Blanco to a one-year deal, assuming the money used ($1.5M?) wouldn't prohibit the Cubs from signing other players. I personally believe that Soto has more offensive upside than Blanco, and while not as good defensively as Blanco, has an above-average glove, and would make a fine backup catcher for the league minimum. Resigning Blanco to a cheap one-year deal would be ok, but it could take away resources that could otherwise be used to add an actual hitter to the bench.

by mportsch on Oct 19, 2006 9:20 AM CDT reply actions

Here is a case...

... where a statistical measure cannot gauge the value of Blanco's decade of experience behind the plate.

I doubt that spending $1 or $2 million on Henry Blanco would prevent another decent backup player from being added to the bench.

Sign Blanco. For that money, he's worth it.

Now, if someone else offers him MORE than that -- well then, you can't compete with that, can you.

by Al Yellon on Oct 19, 2006 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions

i bet

"where a statistical measure cannot gauge the value of Blanco's decade of experience "

dusty said the same thing about neifi last off-season. sure there are intangibles, but defensive catchers are a dime a dozen. paying 2 million dollars for one is the same kind of foolishness that made us pay 10 million dollars for neifi and rusch because they filled a role. but i really think it is a mistake to sign players who fill an easily and cheaply replaced role to multi-million dollar contracts.

i bet you're right, that he will be resigned, but i really feel like these type of contracts are what kill teams.

by tomas21 on Oct 19, 2006 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions

Don't you think...

... there's a big difference between a backup shortstop and a backup catcher?

I agree, the Neifi and Rusch deals were ridiculous. But if the payroll is indeed going to be increased to $115-$120 million, then spending (say) $1.5-$2 million on Henry Blanco isn't going to kill anything.

by Al Yellon on Oct 19, 2006 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions

OK, fine...

but if you're going to do this, wouldn't it be a low priority you can address after addressing the lineup and starting rotation (and perhaps closer)? In other words, IF you address all the other needs of the team and still have $1-2 million/year to blow on Blanco, go ahead. Otherwise, i think the money is best saved for the free agent market. You never know when that $1/year difference will make your offer the best one out there.

The Cubs better shine 'fore twenty-oh-nine!

by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Oct 19, 2006 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions

But...

... Blanco will be in VERY high demand this off-season, believe it or not.

I'd like to see him signed soon. Frankly, with Rothschild back on board (not that I like him being back), I suspect the Blanco re-signing will happen quickly.

by Al Yellon on Oct 19, 2006 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions

he

was the utility infielder, not the backup shortstop. i think there is a difference between the two, as the utility infielder would expect to see a lot more action than a backup shortstop. and no, i don't think there is much difference in importance between utility infielder and backup catcher, and i think both should be filled as well as possible for minimal salary.
and regardless of what the payroll is, it will be 2 million dollars per player smaller if people like blanco, rusch and neifi are signed to retail deals.

by tomas21 on Oct 19, 2006 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions

Splitting hairs...

... utility IF, backup SS.

I disagree that the backup catcher and utility infielder have an equal importance to the team. Your backup catcher likely starts 30-40 games a year, has to handle the pitching staff as well as be a good defender throwing out runners. A FAR more important position.

Rusch & Perez weren't worth it. IMO, Blanco is.

by Al Yellon on Oct 19, 2006 7:14 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree

Various Styles, that Howry should be looked at very closely for the closer spot. He strikes me as the kind of guy who could really succeed in that role, based not only on his fine pitching, but also his personality. And he has experience as a closer, saving 29 games for the Sox a few years back, I believe.

by danimal15 on Oct 19, 2006 3:56 PM CDT reply actions

im a big fan of

trying out wuertz and that slider of his in the closer role

by kylejo on Oct 19, 2006 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions

Doesn't Wuertz...

have trouble throwing on consecutive days, though?

by Perkins on Oct 19, 2006 11:28 PM CDT up reply actions

If he becomes the Cubs closer

He wont ever have to pitch two days in a row. :-)

by VS on Oct 19, 2006 11:40 PM CDT up reply actions

Ha ha!

Let's hope you're wrong on that one, but it was certainly true for Dempster this year. I guess that's why some people (like Al) believe Dempster should get another chance. I'm Ok with that, but if he shows signs of stumbling in April, I'd be an advocate of quickly switching to someone else. A bad closer can completely sink a team.

by danimal15 on Oct 20, 2006 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions