2007 Cubs ZiPS Projections


Now, before you gloss over it, please read their disclaimer.

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Now, some thoughts:

  • Lee (.299/.383/.567) and Ramirez (.296/.355/.559) seem extremely reasonable.  ZiPS is actually more optimistic when it comes to Lee than I am.
  • They give Murton a 15% chance at putting up a .315/.388/.515 line.  Freaking awsome.
  • One of Howry or Wuertz has to be our new closer next season.  ZiPS is really down on Aardsma and high on Dempster, which I found surprising.
  • Hill.  Ah, Rich Hill.  15% chance of doing this - 2.69 ERA/192 Innings/218 Ks

  • That last little bit completely floored me, to the extent that I was trying to find an excuse to post a Player Spotlight that didn't make me look like I was on crack.  Simply put, ZiPS likes Hill better than practically every other pitcher in baseball with minimal MLB experience.  The strides he's made in in the last year have turned his career around, as we saw after the All-Star break in the majors.  The turnaround from 2005 to 2006 in the minors was just as pronounced, as Hill went from allowing a home run every 6 innings to allowing a home run every 33 innings.

    It's not full proof by any means, but it's pretty interesting to look at just the same.

    Just for giggles, some of their 06 projections and what actually happened (I only included guys who stayed healthy)

    ZiPS - .302/.359/.541
    Actual - .291/.352/.561

    ZiPs -  .276/.342/.468
    Actual - .307/.368/.517

    ZiPs - .289/.350/.430
    Actual -  .297/.365/.444

    ZiPs - 3.40 ERA, 209 INN, 198 Ks
    Actual - 3.41 ERA, 214 INN, 210 Ks

    ZiPs - 4.14 ERA, 215 INN, 129 Ks
    Actual - 4.20 ERA, 210 INN, 117 KS

    ZiPS - .293/.346/.364, 198 H
    Actual - .292/.330/.388, 204 H  

    This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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