Ok, So now the Red Sox have won the Matsuzaka bidding?

by TheBeerBaron on Nov 10, 2006 12:26 PM CST

I just read this off of PT...Take it for what it's worth....NOT OFFICIAL!

ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney is reporting that according to Major League Baseball sources, the Boston Red Sox may have posted the top bid for the right to negotiate with Japanese right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka.

There has been no official announcement, and the Seibu Lions, Matsuzaka's team in Japan, have until Tuesday to accept or reject the high bid.

But Olney is reporting that according to Major League Baseball officials who are monitoring the bidding, the Red Sox may have posted the top bid, with a figure between $38 million and $45 million.

Matsuzaka, who pitched for Japan's World Baseball Classic champions, is considered among the top prospects available this offseason.

If the Lions accept the top bid -- and according to the rules of the process, the team making the high bid is not disclosed to the Japanese team -- the winning bidder has 30 days to reach an agreement with Matsuzaka. If a deal cannot be reached, he would return to the Lions for the 2007 season and become a free agent in the spring of 2008.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation, Bleed Cubbie Blue, or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief. FanPost opinions are, however, valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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$38 to 45 million??!?!?!?!?!?

That is NUTS. I hope we weren't stupid enough to bid upwards of $30 million.

HENDRY!

by cubbiejulie on Nov 10, 2006 12:27 PM CST 0 recs

Exactly my thought.

I can't think this is real. Unless they just really wanted to stick it to the Yankees, but seriously, who would bid that much just for the rights?

by HanOfTheBluegrass on Nov 10, 2006 12:28 PM CST up 0 recs

if it's true

it is only to block the Yankees. After 30 days, back to Japan and the money gets returned.

by cubswin on Nov 10, 2006 12:31 PM CST up 0 recs

I'd have to agree...

...that if this is true they did this to block the Yankees.

Otherwise they are taking an enormous risk.

Sure Matsuzaka could be the Japanese Drysdale, but he could also be the second coming of Chan Ho Park (unlikely), we just don't know.

However, it could be entirely possible that Seibu will see through this tactic with the Red Sox, realize the very real possibility that this move is simply to block another team and that they stand to get nothing and will watch Matsuzaka walk after one more year, and will take a lower bid instead.

Could be a reason why they are taking as long as they are to settle on a bid.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Nov 10, 2006 12:40 PM CST up 0 recs

Why would they do that......

when Schilling is retiring at the end of the season and they need SP? If they bid on him, they'll sign him. Remember they like to spend money.....this isn't the Tribune Co.

"Some advice: Stop worrying about being a good corporate citizen."-Phil Rodgers to Jim Hendry 10/6/06

by PriorandAramisfan23 on Nov 10, 2006 12:41 PM CST up 0 recs

Why?

That's easy.

Matsuzaka has not pitched at all in the bigs. No clue how he's going to turn out.

There are other pitching options to be had in free agency and via trade, proven major leaguers.

45MM just for the right to sign AND dealing with Boras as his agent, we're talking perhaps close to 12-15MM per season AFTER the post bid.

The Red Sox stand to spend close to 100MM for the services of Matsuzaka.

It is far too much of a risk, it's not just the money. For these kinds of prices, I'd rather give Schmidt 4/52. This is the kind of deal that could kill a team for years down the road if D-Mat doesn't pan out.

If this is true this smells like block to me. The Red Sox bid is upwards of 10-15MM more than the closest competitor.

Perhaps the Sox will keep him, but if they do, they're taking an enormous risk with the resources they have. Would Matsuzaka be all that much better than Zito or Schmidt next year? Probably not.

And if Matsuzaka is sent back to Japan, the Red Sox can always go after him in one more year, WITHOUT a posting fee.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Nov 10, 2006 12:49 PM CST up 0 recs

If it ends up being a block.....

(which I doubt because Boston typically has never been afraid to spend money) They'll be shooting themselves in the foot since Selig or whomever else in the FO said that if a team bids just to block that there is a strong possibility that he could go to the next highest bidder....well what if that's the Yankees? So by doing that they will have alienated the Japanese leagues and taken a huge risk because I'm sure the Yankees aren't too far behind. If they bid and won.....they're going to keep him.....they've probably already started planning how to export NESN to Japan.

"Some advice: Stop worrying about being a good corporate citizen."-Phil Rodgers to Jim Hendry 10/6/06

by PriorandAramisfan23 on Nov 10, 2006 12:59 PM CST up 0 recs

I'm sure the Red Sox would...

...conduct negotiations in order for it to appear as though it is not a block.

And there's no way Selig could prove that anyway. That is an empty threat that can't be enforced.

Otherwise Matsuzaka could hold the Red Sox for ransom and and demand 20MM per year on top of the posting fee otherwise he goes to the Yankees (assuming they'd be second).

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Nov 10, 2006 1:08 PM CST up 0 recs

to clarify...

...I'm not saying this move by the Red Sox is DEFINITELY a block, just that it seems an ungodly amount to bid for a player as of yet unproven at the American major league level (all Japanese exploits aside), and falls into the category of foolishness.

I'm trying to work this out in my head where the Red Sox post this bid and end up winners because of it.

Matsuzaka for 100MM, with his workload, and still in the injury nexus, seems like he has disaster written all over him. There are so many ways for this to go wrong. He could easily get hurt, when considering his workload in Japan, he could get to Boston and get rocked ("gyroball don't go 'round here..."), he could get to Boston and be merely decent.

For 100MM, I want someone that is basically a guarantee to dominate. I want Pedro at 26, I want Maddux at 26, not Matsuzaka.

If this is true then the Red Sox are making a mistake. Even the Red Sox have limits on spending, a move like this probably finishes their offseason, or pushes them to trade Manny, who I'd rather have anyday over Matsuzaka.

Perhaps Matsuzaka comes to the US and dominates, but the chances of that compared to the chances he underwhelms are far more likely and probable. And anything less than absolute domination, and Red Sox fans will hang him from an effing yardarm.

And I have a hard time believing the Red Sox brass don't realize that.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Nov 10, 2006 1:20 PM CST up 0 recs

Foolish....

perhaps. They do have a habit of winning. Money's not the main concern of how they run their organization, winning comes at a premium. Even if he ends up getting a 15 million deal per year its really not that much money.....because its heavily frontloaded. After 07 the posting fee goes away and with the marketing alone they'll end up making some of that loss back, probably all of it. They do have something like a $175 million dollar payroll....they can afford to throw big bucks around. They want talent and they're willing to pay for it.

"Some advice: Stop worrying about being a good corporate citizen."-Phil Rodgers to Jim Hendry 10/6/06

by PriorandAramisfan23 on Nov 10, 2006 1:29 PM CST up 0 recs

Their payroll is 120MM

And what I've read and what I've heard from friends of mine who are diehard Sox fans, the Red Sox weren't planning on raising that significantly, which is why I voice doubt (along with them, they've already called bullshit on this), that this is for real and they'll go the whole truckload for D-Mat.

If so, then it's foolish. And I don't congratulate teams who spend and make dipshit moves for the holy cause of winning.

I congratulate teams that make wise moves, whether they cost a lot of money or not. Spend spend spend does not make one wise. If there's any doubt about that, just talk to my wife for about fifteen minutes for irrefutable confirmation of that particular truth.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Nov 10, 2006 1:44 PM CST up 0 recs

Why would they do that???

Much for the same reason that Sheffield got his option exercised. Or that Damon got overly compensated for leaving Boston. They hate each other. Half the battle in the AL East these days is finding ways to keep the competition down.

by Damen Jackson on Nov 10, 2006 2:34 PM CST up 0 recs

I'd totally expect Boston to do that IF

they already had a great rotation, which isn't even close to reality.

He'll end up costing less than Zito and will help solve Boston's biggest problem. If Boston wins, they'll sign him to a 4-5 year deal.

"Incidentally, Colossus was right and I was wrong about Maddux being dealt." -Al Yellon

by colossus on Nov 10, 2006 2:53 PM CST up 0 recs

If this bid is accurate...

And let's take roughly the mean at 40MM, then with at least 10MM per season, AT LEAST, over 5 years he would be at roughly 90MM, which is at or beyond what Barry Zito will get at least per season.

Chances are, with Boras in his corner, Matsu gets closer to 15MM per, plus the bid, which puts him well over 100MM for the length of the contract.

I'm sorry. I'd take Zito over that.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Nov 10, 2006 2:58 PM CST up 0 recs

I'd expect it to be a lot closer to $35m.

Zito will get at least $85m bc there are only two top tier FA pitchers that don't require a bid.

"Incidentally, Colossus was right and I was wrong about Maddux being dealt." -Al Yellon

by colossus on Nov 10, 2006 3:08 PM CST up 0 recs

If I was forced to choose at gunpoint...

...I'd pick Zito over Matsuzaka right now. If we were picking teams on the playground I'd pick Zito.

You just don't know what you're going to get for sure with Matsuzaka, there are durability issues, workload issues, etc. Zito, while not spectacular, is durable and generally consistent.

Don't get me wrong, I like Matsuzaka, and would have been fine with him in Cubbie blue.

But not at this price. I didn't want him on the Cubs that badly.

I'd rather take Zito if we're throwing this kind of money around.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Nov 10, 2006 3:17 PM CST up 0 recs

except

they don't know what teams bid what (other than the rumors we've been hearing)

SINATRO!!!! Its music to my ears.

by flyball on Nov 10, 2006 12:47 PM CST up 0 recs

Matsuzaka bid

I would love to have this guy pitch for the Cubs. But, no player, not even Albert Pujols is worth $38-45 million just to negotiate on what figures to be around a five year contract. The Red Sox are so obsessed with beating the Yankees, they'll throw around money like it's from a monopoly board.

We have to remember, the bid and the contract are two separate items.

With Scott Boras, representing him and the lack of quality starters expect negotiations to start at around $10 Mil per year. That means you could be paying $95 million for five years ($19 million a year!!!)

Knowing these are blind bids, if Hendry would have bid somewhere in the $30 mil range, it tells me the Cubs are serious.

We have much better ways to spend $95 million dollars.

However, if the Red Sox didn't bid such an astronomical figure: never mind.

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. -- George Santayana (1863-1952)

by cubfred on Nov 10, 2006 12:46 PM CST up 0 recs

Doesn't surprise me......

the Rex Sox do whatever it takes to win.

"Some advice: Stop worrying about being a good corporate citizen."-Phil Rodgers to Jim Hendry 10/6/06

by PriorandAramisfan23 on Nov 10, 2006 12:28 PM CST 0 recs

More accurately...

The Red Sox do whatever they think it takes to put them ahead of the Yankees.

by HanOfTheBluegrass on Nov 10, 2006 12:28 PM CST up 0 recs

Absolutely...

Why, the Red Sox outbid the Yanks for Abreu last year, bolstered their pen and rotation, and made the playoffs.

Oh wait...

Say what you just said to a diehard Sox fan and he'll laugh you out of the room.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Nov 10, 2006 12:33 PM CST up 0 recs

And...

... from the Matsuzaka Watch blog:

Just another quick note to amuse you, and keep you occupied. The Japanese tabloids are periodically producing news this morning, just as the American media seems to be doing. We're scouring the wires in Japan for anything new, and they are quoting US papers and media.

Basically, both sides of the ocean are looking to the other for information, but all anyone can dig up is that no one knows anything. Brilliant!! The Watch continues......

I think we all just wait. Anything else is nothing more than a rumor.

by Al on Nov 10, 2006 12:29 PM CST 0 recs

Except...

this is a credible report. It may not ultimately be true, but it's the first such report.

by Maddog on Nov 10, 2006 12:38 PM CST up 0 recs

dude...

...the blogosphere is FAR more accurate than actual news sources, didn't you know?

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Nov 10, 2006 12:41 PM CST up 0 recs

Why...

... is this one credible and the one out of Dallas not?

Point being, I won't believe any of these until it happens. Every reporter wants to be the one to "break the story".

by Al on Nov 10, 2006 12:49 PM CST up 0 recs

I won't believe it either, Al.

But Buster Olney breaking this is at least more reputable than the Star Telegram, which happens to be one of my favorite papers. Either could be true...or untrue, but one certainly has more credibility than the other.

by Maddog on Nov 10, 2006 2:32 PM CST up 0 recs

You would have thought that

Tim Kurkjian breaking news that Alfonso Soriano was traded to the White Sox was credible too......

Just food for thought.

STEVE STONE!

by TheBeerBaron on Nov 10, 2006 10:57 PM CST up 0 recs

Maybe

But Buster Olney isn't exactly known for his contacts within the Red Sox organization. He's a Yankee guy, and one wonders if that's where he's getting this "Red Sox won" stuff.

Frankly, the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry has gotten to the point where it's like Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? They won't stop fighting and it's impossible to know what's real anymore.

by Josh77 on Nov 11, 2006 3:55 AM CST up 0 recs

This is all really insane

I'm not believing anything until there's official word. So far we've heard that the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers have won. And we've heard that the bid was as low as 18 to as high as 45.

For god's sake, Seibu Lions and MLB, put us out of our misery already.

by gravedigger on Nov 10, 2006 12:29 PM CST 0 recs

This just in

Chico's Bail Bonds just bid $52M to replace their pitcher who has gotten a bra and is now on Rescue Me.

by NO100 on Nov 10, 2006 12:38 PM CST 0 recs

Post of the day!!!!!

(n/t)

by Santos L Halper on Nov 10, 2006 12:44 PM CST up 0 recs

NO SANTOS...

Your post was post of the day!

Well done.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Nov 10, 2006 12:56 PM CST up 0 recs

This makes sense...

It could be a move by the Red Sox to block the Yankees from getting him and they have no intention on signing him. That is an awful lot of money to pay just for negotiating rights. But really, there are so many rumors floating around right now, everybody should just wait and see! But I really don't think it's going to be the Cubs no matter what.

"If you can accept losing, you can't win." - Vince Lombardi

by bergs55 on Nov 10, 2006 12:43 PM CST 0 recs

Much ado.....

about nothing.

Until the announcement comes from Seibu, its a guessing game.

FWIW, if it is true, the Red Sox have some big balls and deep pockets.... Must be nice....

he hath no fury like a cubs fan scorned

by timeforachange on Nov 10, 2006 12:44 PM CST 0 recs

or simply no brains.

A bid like that would be assinine, plain and simple. They would be paying him around 25mill/year by the time they work it out. I think they would just assume throw some of that HUGE money towards Clemens for his swan song. It would be silly to go that high, they would be bidding against themselves, and drastically overpaying just like Texas did with A-Rod.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Nov 10, 2006 12:58 PM CST up 0 recs

Unless their bid is a block...

...of the Yankees.

That makes sense.

If that is what their angle is, I suspect they'll lowball Matsuzaka with a price below 10MM per year, Boras won't let him agree to it, and Matsuzaka will return to Japan.

However, it is possible that Seibu will see through this ploy and might even take a slightly lower bid in order to make sure they get something for him.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Nov 10, 2006 1:02 PM CST up 0 recs

What you are forgetting...

... is that Seibu doesn't have a CHOICE of bids. The posting system requires MLB to forward only the HIGHEST bid to Seibu, and then they have one choice only -- take it or decline it.

by Al on Nov 10, 2006 1:22 PM CST up 0 recs

I did forget that...

...thanks for clearing that up Al.

Then if this bid is true from the Bosox, what's the holdup?

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Nov 10, 2006 1:26 PM CST up 0 recs

The holdup is...

... that Seibu doesn't HAVE to announce ANYTHING until Tuesday.

Anything you hear from a MSM media outlet before then is posturing by someone who wants to be "the one" who has "the scoop".

by Al on Nov 10, 2006 1:27 PM CST up 0 recs

I agree...

with the dollars, except that maybe the Red Sox (or any other team who is bidding) assume that they will benefit from marketing rights or broadcast rights if they were to sign him.

I wonder what that is worth?

No More Negativity! I am reborn!!!!!!

by timeforachange on Nov 10, 2006 1:04 PM CST up 0 recs

Red Sox winning wouldn't surprise me

They need pitching as much as anyone. I guess they'd rather go all out on Matsuzaka than Zito.

"Incidentally, Colossus was right and I was wrong about Maddux being dealt." -Al Yellon

by colossus on Nov 10, 2006 12:53 PM CST 0 recs

There's nothing asinine about winning.....

some teams sit around and horde dimes and other teams spend them.

"Some advice: Stop worrying about being a good corporate citizen."-Phil Rodgers to Jim Hendry 10/6/06

by PriorandAramisfan23 on Nov 10, 2006 1:02 PM CST 0 recs

At 2:00 on Friday afternoon in Chicago

. . . it's 4:00 AM Saturday morning in Tokyo.
I don't think we should expect an announcement for 8-12 hours at LEAST.
And THAT's assuming that they're working on Saturday.
I'm as eager as the next guy, but I don't think it's going to happen this afternoon (Chicago time), kids.

"Respect the game above all else." - Ryne Sandberg

by Tom on Nov 10, 2006 1:52 PM CST 0 recs

caveat

I've been thinking about this very issue. With the time difference, there really isn't a time that will make sense in both the US and Japanese news markents. So, it is possible that an announcement could come on a Friday afternoon US time, where Seibu has decided to allow the US team to be the one making the announcement/holding the press conference, etc.

We shall see. Though having the trans-pacific aspect certainly makes it harder on my internet addiction. Usually, I can just say, oh hell its midnight, nothing is happening now...

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Nov 10, 2006 2:03 PM CST up 0 recs

Except

That as soon as the decision is made, it will get out. How often is the press conference the first time anyone hears news? It's not like the Cubs press conference was the first anyone heard that Lou Piniella was the new manager.
I agree the American team will get to have a big news conference, but there will be no "news" made at it. (Frankly, I'd think if the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers or Cubs announced a press conference today, the announcement of the press conference itself would be the answer of who won the bidding . . . )

"Respect the game above all else." - Ryne Sandberg

by Tom on Nov 10, 2006 2:20 PM CST up 0 recs

I don't disagree

I would simply put that out as emphasizing that I don't know what to expect. It's interesting to me that we now have two different "non internet-blog based" reports coming out with two different teams predicted as winners...

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Nov 10, 2006 2:44 PM CST up 0 recs

There is

a good faith clause in the Posting agreement. They couldn't bid $40 million and then turn around and offer Matsuzaka a 4 year, 4.5 million contract.

If the winning bid was around $40 million (which I seriously doubt) then for the first time, I will say I hope the Cubs don't get Matsuzaka.

by Josh77 on Nov 10, 2006 2:01 PM CST 0 recs

Thanks!

Everytime The question of how big the bids will be comes up, folks seem to forget about the good faith clause.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Nov 10, 2006 2:04 PM CST up 0 recs

Thanks for clearing that up...

...then it isn't a block, and if true, the Red Sox are making a big mistake.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Nov 10, 2006 2:06 PM CST up 0 recs

Another reason I hope not...

I certainly hope the BoSox didn't spend this much for him.

First, I want the Cubs to win the bidding for as little as possible.
Second, I like the BoSox, and think this would be a stupid bid!

Third, if there is truth to this $ amount, I am afraid of what will happen to the rest of the FA market, including the posting prices, for other FA's this winter.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Nov 10, 2006 2:08 PM CST 0 recs