FA's: How Much Money We Got?

by southerncubbie on Nov 13, 2006 9:54 AM CST Comment 19 comments

PAYROLL - WHAT CAN WE SPEND?

Now that the Cubs have resigned Aram, it's time to figure out just what the team can and can't do, within the boundary conditions of their payroll. If the Cubs are, in fact committed to upping their payroll over 100 million (and some have said to 120 mil) then it would appear that we have a lot of flexibility and room to go out and get the free agents we need to compete.

Let's say that the entire payroll for the Cubs including coaches comes to 75 million as of now--committed. That still leaves approximately between 25 million and 40 million left to spend. With that kind of money, we should be able to sign 2 quality starting pitchers, and 1 big bat, preferably Soriano - or 2 bats (Drew and Wells) + 1 quality starter -- ? It all depends on just how much more $$ the Cubs will have to sign guys. I like the idea of Soriano, Wells, and then assuming we're not going to get Matsuzaka, Schmidt or Zito--fill in the # 3 and #4 starters appropriately - A big hitch: If we do get Matsuzaka, then he will sign for significantly less than Zito or Schmidt. Could be interesting.

Seems to me you get one superstar + parts, or you spread it around. I say we go for Schmidt, Wells (in a trade), Wilson and a serviceable 2B. That we could do for b/t 25 and 30 million.

With this kind of flexibility, and based on these numbers, what would you do?

POSITION PLAYERS

3B    Aramis Ramirez 14,000,000.00
1B     Derek Lee        13,000,000.00
SS    Cesar Izturis 4,150,000.00
OF    Jacques Jones 4,000,000.00
C    Michael Barrett    3,000,000.00
OF    Matt Murton    380,000.00
OF    Angel Pagan    380,000.00
IF    Robby Cedeno    380,000.00
IF    Ryan Theriot    380,000.00
IF     Freddie Bynum    380,000.00
C    Geovany Soto    380.000.00

POSITION PLAYER TOTAL 40,430,000.00

PITCHERS

SP    Carlos Zambrano 6,500,000.00 (arbitration?)
RP    Ryan Dempster    5,000,000.00
RP    Bob Howry    4,000,000.00
SP    Mark Prior        3,650,000.00
RP    Scott Eyre        3,500,000.00
RP    Glendon Rusch    3,250,000.00 (injured)
SP    Wade Miller    1,500,000.00
RP    Kerry Wood    1,000,000.00 (incentives)
RP    Will Ohman    610,000.00
RP    Michael Wuertz    380,000.00
RP    Roberto Novoa    380,000.00
RP    David Aardsma    380,000.00
SP    Sean Marshall    380,000.00
SP    Rich Hill        380,000.00

PITCHER TOTAL 30,910,000.00
TEAM PAYROLL TOTAL 71,340,000.00

NOTES:
-Zambrano will get more $$ assuming he goes to arbitration
-Rusch is obviously injured, and we have to eat his contract
-Wood's money could be more depending on contractual incentives

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Rusch

His contract is likely to be picked up by insurance, or he may retire.

by BadGuy on Nov 13, 2006 9:59 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Your numbers are probably about..

6 million off minimum, with a number of arbitration eligible players. But that aside, I would likely be looking for a plus second baseman and my second (lesser) SP, while watching the market develop for the top FAs.

by Damen Jackson on Nov 13, 2006 10:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

2007 payroll

http://www.thechicagonationalleagueballclub.com/article/archives/2006/11/12/855

by Maddog on Nov 13, 2006 10:09 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah,

That was about what I was thinking. Although I'm not certain how Glendon's 2007 salary will be treated.

by Damen Jackson on Nov 13, 2006 10:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Rusch...

... is likely to be on the 60-day DL all year, and due to the nature of his illness, which will prevent him from pitching, I would guess that most if not all of his $3 million will be covered by insurance.

by Al on Nov 13, 2006 11:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I swear

My posts must go up in invisible ink.

by BadGuy on Nov 13, 2006 2:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wait...Did you guys hear something?

n/t

[kidding]

"My uncle says you've got a screw loose." -- "Your uncle molests collies."

by jcub on Nov 13, 2006 3:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Rusch

How do you know the medical diagnosis of Glendon Rusch and whether he will pitch or not in 2007?

by BlueMike on Nov 13, 2006 4:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Rusch...

... has a serious blood disorder that is life-threatening.

Now if you'd go out there and pitch with that, you go ahead. But I suspect Rusch's baseball career is over.

by Al on Nov 13, 2006 7:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

silly al

using logic to come up with your comments.

TRAMMELL!

by Faith plus 1 on Nov 14, 2006 12:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Without Rusch

we'd be down to $75m and wouldn't Z getting $12m in arbitration set a new record?

Assuming the Tribco doesn't increase the payroll, which it really f-ing should if it wants to get more when selling it, we'll have $25m left since it looks like our budget will be $100m.

-Roberts $4m
-Schmidt $13m
-#4 guy ???

That's $17m with $8m left. Hopefully the Japanese guy that isn't Matsuzaka will be ours, we could easily afford him. We wouldn't have enough to address 2B though, so any hopes of getting a good vet is dashed without more money. We could play it risky and sign Nomar for 2B, $8m would be enough for first year salary with increases the remaining years.

Our rotation would be:

Z
Schmidt
Hill
Miller/Prior/Marshall/Gallagher/young guys

We'd really need to get a solid #4 guy since those other guys are big question marks. We could spend a large majority of the $8m left on a FA and then sign a cheap, old, past his prime vet for a few million to play 2B. I wouldn't be a big fan of that, so it looks like more money is the key.

"Incidentally, Colossus was right and I was wrong about Maddux being dealt." -Al Yellon

by colossus on Nov 13, 2006 1:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent analysis

However there still are a number of unknowns that make it impossible to determine what we end up spending the money on.

According to ESPN, last year's payroll was about $95M. If we take your number of $78.75 and take out Rusch we're at $76M. If we are to believe that next year's budget is $115M, we've got $39M left.

Going on the high side, we can afford $30M for studs and another $9M to improve the bench. The biggest problem is deciding how to distribute the $30M. We need 2 SP and a power hitter. Does Jim go for quantity or quality. Would he prefer Zito or Heilman and Durham? Interesting decisions are forthcoming.

One final thought. In the past, MacPhail kept referring to a different payroll figure than has been used by ESPN and others. His numbers included a payroll burden such as social security and benefits added to base salary. If the Cubs use that number, we can subtract almost $10M from the $40M remaining payroll.

Players win awards but teams win championships.

by tharr on Nov 13, 2006 4:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My point is....

.....people need to decide how they're going to spend what money we have left.

You're not going to get a #1 Starter AND a Soriano. Just isn't going to happen -- I'd rather have that #1 starter, if we can also get Wells in a trade than Soriano.

Schmidt / Zito
Wells (via trade)
Wilson
Durham / De Rosa
Padilla / Heilman / Bautista

That would probably fit within our payroll.

We got Ramirez! Now let's get Vernon Wells!!!

by southerncubbie on Nov 13, 2006 10:15 AM CST reply actions 0 recs