Alfonso Soriano: Worth $100 million?

by TheBeerBaron on Nov 13, 2006 5:42 PM CST Comment 35 comments

What are your thoughts regarding his impending price tag? My latest blog entry (http://mlb-threesixtyfive.blogspot.com/)discusses why and why not Soriano is worth Beltran type money.

Is $102M (6YR/$17M per) really worth it for a guy on the wrong side of 30--with a career .325 OBP.

I know your feelings Al, and I agree with you--for the most part. It's just $100M is A LOT of money!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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I am going to say

no, but this is a player's market by far. There is no one else of true impact out there. Hendry made the mistake the past few years in passing on this type of impact player signing (see Vlad, Tejada, Pudge, Beltran, & Furcal). This is it this year.

If Hendry and the Cubs are truly committed to winning now, they (and all of us for that matter) CANNOT be concerned with what financial burdens a player like this MIGHT be 6 years from now! Pay Soriano and Schmidt the money they want to come here and try to win. It is too late to start from scratch now that A-Ram is back and Uncle Lou is onboard as well.

As much as I do not like this approach either, what choice is there left for us, really?

by airweino on Nov 13, 2006 5:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of Tejada . . .

. . . isn't he supposed to be back on the trading block?
Of course, Peter Angelos has the greatest case of performance anxiety I've ever witnessed when it comes to pulling off a trade, so I shouldn't expect much.

"Respect the game above all else." - Ryne Sandberg

by Tom on Nov 13, 2006 6:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

soriano

i say no to soriamo.better ways to spend 100mill.lets get some pitching and carlos lee for left.switch jones to center and move murton to right.

by NOMAR on Nov 13, 2006 5:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I like the creative thinking....

but not the idea of Jones in CF. He is not the best fielder and has a terrible arm.....

STEVE STONE!

by TheBeerBaron on Nov 13, 2006 5:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

well

His arm couldn't be worse than Pierre's :P

by Patblue on Nov 13, 2006 6:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think that the idea is to "upgrade"

not remain "status quo"...as much as I don't want to pay Soriano, his arm strength is ideal for a CFer.

STEVE STONE!

by TheBeerBaron on Nov 13, 2006 6:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I might eat my words in a month

But I don't think $100M is any realistic number for him. I just don't see him getting $17M for 6 years. Maybe $17M for 4 or $14M for 6.

by NO100 on Nov 13, 2006 6:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I don't think...

$100 million is a realistic figure for him either. I just don't see anyone giving him a Beltran kind of deal. I think the Phillies offer today is a prime example. A-Ram's deal should bring Soriano's down some. You never know when a player is just blowing smoke when it comes to a contract, but Soriano claimed the other day a NTC included in a contract offer is something he really wants. If, and its just an if, he's telling the truth, maybe we could get him cheaper than we think if Hendry's willing to give him a NTC.

by Macy on Nov 13, 2006 11:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What are your thoughts on the writing of

my blog itself?

STEVE STONE!

by TheBeerBaron on Nov 13, 2006 6:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Shameless Plug after Shameless Plug.

I understand you have a blog.. what was the name of it again? No offense or anything, but I've noticed you have plugged your blog like 6 times in the last 2 days. As for the Q at hand is he worth 100 mil. No he isn't.

I would say 16 for 5 (80 mil ) is as far as I would go. If it comes down to a very serious race and I am in the hunt I might bump it to 5-85 (17 a year). If that doesn't win it . I don't want to be in it

There is no FA in baseball this year that is worth 100 M. Next.

by cubsfan2883 on Nov 13, 2006 6:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, I apologize if

you are offended by the constant promotion of my work, but I have little more than BCB, PT and people I know in real life to promote my writing to.

I have discussed this with Al before, and he is cool with me advertising my blog here.

And for the record, this is the first time I have "shamelessly plugged" my blog since Saturday.

STEVE STONE!

by TheBeerBaron on Nov 13, 2006 6:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

How about just a link in your sig then

It'd be a lot less annoying.

"Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!" -Homer J. Simpson

by Whitebacon on Nov 13, 2006 11:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

or in your profile

TRAMMELL!

by Faith plus 1 on Nov 13, 2006 11:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Can't we all just get along?

Well, all of us except cubbiejulie and her shameless promotion of her political ideals [kidding...totally kidding].

Seriously, it appears that BeerBaron works hard on his blog, and he or she is just looking for a little feedback. (Although, I must say that using a link in the signature and occasionally mentioning a related article on own that blog might be less "in your face" than the way he or she currently promotes the blog--I think another poster has a site and does this sort of thing).

As for direct feedback to BeerBaron: the article seems to flow pretty well, and I only noticed a couple of minor errors (for instance, "outfield" is one word). Admittedly, I did not scour the article for editorial purposes, but the I think you picked an current topic and approached it in an interesting manner. Personally, I would have probably mentioned Soriano's selfish pursuit of the 40/40 stats at the end of the season, in spite of his team's best interest--going for steals when it was not advantageous to the team. But then, I'm of the opinion he was playing all season to cash in now and will revert to his career averages next season.

"My uncle says you've got a screw loose." -- "Your uncle molests collies."

by jcub on Nov 13, 2006 6:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Very true

regarding the selfish pursuit of 40/40 (and well, 40....as in 2B's).......but at that point in time, his team was so far out of it that playing for a contract was his ultimate priority. Not that I agree with him--or blame him for that matter.

To his credit, he did step into his role in leftfield very well--keeping quite his personally disagreement with the situation.

STEVE STONE!

by TheBeerBaron on Nov 13, 2006 6:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey!

I have never promoted my political ideas (cough! liberals rule! cough!)

HENDRY!

by cubbiejulie on Nov 13, 2006 7:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh

Unlike your constant promotion of the idea that we should go after what's his name. . . . Marcus Giles' brother.

HENDRY!

by cubbiejulie on Nov 13, 2006 7:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

No.

No way in hell I'd pay Soriano anything close to 100 million. Another very low OBP high strikeout "toolsy" player is not what this team needs, regardless of the need for more power in the lineup. Of course, almost anything else in CF would be an upgrade from Pierre.

Luis

by Luis on Nov 13, 2006 6:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Do you realize...

that on your blog you've twice now said the Cubs should NOT pursue a player (Soriano and Ramirez)?

I suggest your next post should be in the positive: instead of saying who they shouldn't get, say someone they should.

It's obvious that every FA has his flaws this year; in this "seller's market" in which everyone might be overpaid, going through every player and saying why he shouldn't be signed for XX amount of dollars would be easy.

Say who the Cubs should overpay for (like that No. 4 starter you think might be a steal--like BlueMike says about Gil Meche).

I know you may have done that in your Hendry off-season focus, but get specific with a player like you did with Sori and A-Ram.

"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -- Albert Einstein

by tyger1147 on Nov 13, 2006 6:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I think that I wasn't 100% negative

on either candidate.....I mentioned that Aramis Ramirez is scary b/c of his inconsistancies early in the season.....but he's the best option for the CUBS.....

I mentioned that I believe Soriano would be a good fit--I just wish it was for less of a commitment.

STEVE STONE!

by TheBeerBaron on Nov 14, 2006 11:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What is Beltran Money?

I am somewhat unfcomfortable with teh idea of referring to the money in terms of a contract a player recieved two years ago. There is something in a question such as "Should ___ get Beltran Money?"

The fact is, if Beltran were a free agent now, he would get a much fatter contract than what the Met's are currently paying him. When you pay a free agent, part of what you do is roll the dice on the economics of baseball. If salaries continue to climb, then the contracts given to Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano this year will look like bargains.

We can debate whether or not Soriano is worth 100 million over 6 years, and yes, it may seem like a meaningless parsing of words, but, I don't think we should frame that question in terms of past free agent salaries.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Nov 13, 2006 7:36 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

But salaries do not continue to climb..

salaries can drop and climb based on the market.

The better question would be.. Is anyone as talented as Carlos Beltran this off-season .. that answer would be a resounding no.

by cubsfan2883 on Nov 13, 2006 7:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

A glass-half-empty kinda guy . . .

. . . would say "Beltran money" is just slightly more than Jim Hendry is willing to offer, so as to just barely miss out on the top-tier free agents.
It's also known as "Furcal money".
But, hey, maybe I'm just a pessimist. (I'm a Cubs fan, what do you expect?)

"Respect the game above all else." - Ryne Sandberg

by Tom on Nov 13, 2006 7:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Maddog

made a wonderful point the other day -- the added value of the ramirez deal is that it cripples some of the demands soriano ect can make this offseason

if ramirez gets 5 / 73 soriano will NOT get beltran money and JD Drew may have cost himself dearly

in one fell swoop hendry infuriated the players union and made this offseasons standard deal someting more realistic

"Its not like we need 10-12 players to contend"

by ksucubbie on Nov 13, 2006 8:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

According to MLB.com

the Phils have offered Soriano 5/73. Did someone already post this? I have to be honest, I'm kind of fried right now.

The Philadelphia Phillies appear to be the most aggressive organization pursuing Soriano. The Philadelphia Daily News reported on Monday that an offer, believed to be for five years and $73 million, has been made.

If this is true, it looks like ARam's signing drove his price WAY down.

HENDRY!

by cubbiejulie on Nov 13, 2006 8:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Forgot the Link

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061113&content_id=1740168&vkey=hotstove 2006&fext=.jsp

see? fried.

HENDRY!

by cubbiejulie on Nov 13, 2006 8:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a starting point

Soriano will end up getting more, but probably not Beltran money. The Phils want him so I doubt they gave him a take it or leave it offer this soon.

That said, he's not worth $100 million. Not even close. He's in a great position in this market and he'll get paid quite a bit but he isn't a truly great player. His lack of obp skills and defensive value hurt his ability to be a great player.

He's good at what he does, hit home runs and steal bases. But just like Juan Pierre, a player has to be able to get on base. Soriano doesn't do it often enough. He'll likely end up as the player he was the previous few season, good but not a real superstar. Why pay him like one?

I say we pass and spend the money elsewhere. Pitching, pitching, pitching...

by pageian on Nov 13, 2006 9:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, KSU.

That's exactly what happened with Ramirez's signing. Soriano may get slightly more than Ramirez. The market will determine it, but any dreams he had of the $100 million payday are gone.

Of course, while it takes one player signing under market value to change the market, it also only takes one player signing over market value to re-adjust it. That being said, 5/75 is the number GMs have in mind when they go to negotiate with Soriano. More than that they are going to feel they're getting screwed.

JD Drew is wishing he stayed in LA. No doubt about that. I thought it interesting that a day after Ramirez signed Boras comes out and says he's also a CF and one of the best around. Boras was counting on Ramirez getting market value and he didn't.

The one group of people very excited right now are the owners. The player's union is furious.

by Maddog on Nov 13, 2006 10:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I have been

on Soriano for awhile, and will not change the tune. I believe, my take, he is a player that will make a huge difference. Sure is OBP is low, and his defense is below average, however I do not believe he is on the wrong side of 30 as someone mentioned, his numbers show no sign of regression. His numbers are impressive considering he hit leadoff for the majority of the season.
We all want pitching, but besides Zito, Schimdt. ( "D Mat" we will find out about if the Cubs got the bid ) who is REALLY worth pursuing that you could say would impact our rotation like Soriano would on our everyday lineup.
Plus Schimdt has had problems staying healthy for a whole season, and we know that story.
If the rumor has the Phillies offering 5 for 73M, Cubs can up with a better deal, 6 for 90M.
I like him, hope he ends up in Chicago

Throw out your Gold Teeth and see how they Roll

by Johnny Callison was a Cub on Nov 13, 2006 9:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

If the Cubs will take it on and not short-change

the roster elsewhere, then go for it...But as with Aramis, I don't want to see this guy cost us Zambrano.

by DudeVf1 on Nov 13, 2006 10:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

if the phils are offering Aram $, then the cubs could easily out-bid them...

PERRY!!!

by KChiCubs on Nov 13, 2006 11:36 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Correction:

if the Phils are offering Soriano Aram money, we could easily outbid them...

PERRY!!!

by KChiCubs on Nov 13, 2006 11:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't...

say easily, but yes we could offer him that much. I'll take him for 5 years 14m. We'll see. I SERIOUSLY DOUBT he'll get 100m from anyone. JIMO.

by Macy on Nov 13, 2006 11:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What about...

offering Soriano and Furcal-type deal? More money for a shorter deal? Worked for the Dodgers, maybe Soriano would go for it as well. Any thoughts?

by airweino on Nov 14, 2006 1:04 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Its possible......

but unlikely. I think he's going to want the security of a long term deal seeing as how he's already in his 30's. I think if Hendry does sign him hopefully he puts a team option in the deal after the 3rd year.....that way if he starts to decline it'll be easier to get out of the contract. I don't know if Soriano would go for that but it would be a good move if possible.

"Al was right about Aramis staying! Good call, Al!"

by PriorandAramisfan23 on Nov 14, 2006 2:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs