1 good or 2 ok SPs?

by WGNstatic on Nov 25, 2006 12:03 PM CST Comment 38 comments

I am curious what folks think of this somewhat hypothetical question, Would your rather the Cubs...

...sign 1 frontline starter, (Schmidt or Zito) then cross your fingers on the rest of the rotation w/o another significant addition.

... sign 2 mid-level SPs that would cost ~ the same as Schmidt or Zito.

Poll

1 SP or 2 SP?

Give me Zito/Schmidt!

36 votes

I'll take the two-for one deal please.

50 votes

86 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

0 recs | Comment 38 comments

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2 top of the rotation starting pitchers!

That's what the Cubs NEED.

by Maddog on Nov 25, 2006 12:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

2 mid-level

SPs would probably do the trick if we can pick-up one more decent bat with reasonable defensive ability. There are too many intangibles to really tell, even with top-of-the-line starters. Look at the playoff teams this year. How many of them had truly stellar pitching staffs? The eventual winner of the world series had one star quality pitcher on its staff. They won because mid-level (and below) guys rose to the occassion. Top flight guys don't always perform to expectations when they're needed the most. I'd prefer pitchers with sound fundamentals who are coachable and who can get quality starts. Granted, in a short series pitching usually rules but you've got to get to the short series first, then hope your guys rise to the occassion.

by Luigi on Nov 25, 2006 12:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

right on

completely agree with you here. We need guys that can eat up innings and deliver quality starts of say 6 innings pitched 2-3 earned runs allowed. Last year the starters would be getting shelled constantly and wed be in the bullpen by the 4th inning. If we are going to compete this year we definetely need 2-3 more solid starters that can go out and pitch every 5th day and give a consistent effort.

by CubsBall2202 on Nov 25, 2006 12:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

So....

Are you saying that we should sign 2 mid-level starters and expect them to rise to the occasion, or not sign a star starter because they may not rise to the occasion? Doesn't make sense.

The reason why stars are stars is precisely because they rise to the occasion more often than mid-level guys do. If you sign Jeff Suppan and expect him to be a star come playoff time you'll be setting yourself up for disappointment.

We need GOOD pitchers. We already have plenty of guys who can pitch, now we need guys who can pitch well.

by pageian on Nov 25, 2006 12:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I should

have made my feelings clearer, I agree. I think the money spent on one of the two primo free agents available this year would be better spent on another bat, preferably a center fielder. Now that Roberts is out of the picture that becomes a bit more problematic however, I feel two mid-level starters who could do yeoman's work would be enough to put us over the top. I'd love to see both Schmidt and Zito in cubbie blue but I don't think there's much chance of that happening. Just going after one of them represents significant money that may need to be spent elsewhere.

Hendry could still pull off a good trade using Murton, Jones or even on of out bullpen lefties. Such a trade would leave another hole in the lineup though.

I don't have the time to dig into rosters and stats but I'm sure the folks in St. Louis are convinced they can't win without a staff full of stars. What did the Mets win their division with? How about San Diego? I don't see great pitching, only consistent, blue collar pitching.

We've got a stopper in Z and a potential star in Hill. If Maddux comes back (there's the inning eater we need) I stand by my assertion that even Suppan would be a decent pickup and along with another, be enough to put the team into the playoffs. In the meantime, we can hope Prior and Miller can somehow get their acts together.

I Hendry does have an unlimited budget (which I'm sure he doesn't) of course he should go after the best available. If he doesn't though, he's got to be canny and pursue players that can help, even if they aren't on the all-star roster.

by Luigi on Nov 25, 2006 2:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

that what you are describing is precisely what Jim Hendry is doing, and that's why he's kicking the tires on Meche and Padilla. I understand the thinking and both could possibly be good enough, I'd just feel more comfortable with a Zito or Schmidt or other front of the rotation starter.

Backend starters like Suppan certainly have value but most of them are going to be overpriced. I would just personally rather spend an extra $4-5 million and get Zito or Schmidt than wind up with Ted Lilly (although I've heard good things about Lilly that might make me change my mind).

Hendry has gone out of his way to fix the offense, dumping money on the problem like it's water on a fire. I just don't understand why he's doing that for the offense but not with the pitching. It's debatable but I think our rotation was just as much or more of a problem as the offense was. Going second-tier, especially a way overpriced second-tier doesn't quite address the problem as well as it needs to be addressed. Maybe he's got a trade in mind, which is fine with me, I just hope he's not expecting Jeff Suppan or Vincente Padilla to carry us to a World Series.

by pageian on Nov 25, 2006 8:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

This should be a poll question

I'd prefer one top-line starter, although I don't know if Zito/Schmidt themselves even count as a "top-line" starter.

Okay, I give in: GRACE!!

by Tom on Nov 25, 2006 12:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

now it is

n/t

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Nov 25, 2006 12:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I take the advice

of Joey Tribbiani,

"Man, I'm starving! What the hell was I thinking at dinner?!
"Do you want soup or salad?" Both! Always order both!"

WOODY!!!!

by Sarah Hope on Nov 25, 2006 12:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

About Zito/Schmidt...

... I don't think Zito wants to come here, regardless of dollars, and I'm leery of Schmidt due to his age.

Thus I think the Cubs might be better off with two "lesser" options, one of whom might come via trade (Westbrook/Jennings, for example).

by Al on Nov 25, 2006 12:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

We may refer to them as 'lesser'

since they don't get the press of Zito/Schmidt but I think they (either one) would be the better option.(Via trade) Zito is living off a few teriffic years, he's no longer 'great.' (See: Juan Pierre) Signing Zito to big dollars is money wasted. Hey, the Padres won their division with one good name pitcher (Peavy) but he wasn't really the ace, as he struggled a lot. Chris Young quietly became the ace. (Wells came along later, but he wasn't really 'the guy.') Young became the dependable arm on the Padres staff and that could happen with Jennings or Westerbrook.

by Smooth Jazz Man San Diego on Nov 25, 2006 1:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Trade concerns

I'll be very interested to see what develops in terms of the trade market. I fear that guys will be equally expensive to acquire via that route as through Free Agency, with the cost coming in talent instead of $.

I don't see any area that the Cubs have enough depth to pull off a big trade. Sure Jones is a bargain currently, but an average outfielder won't bring a particularly large return. Sure, he could be packaged, but unless you include a top prospect I doubt a bunch of mid level prospects would get it done.

Furthermore, I don't see the Cubs as really having relievers to trade. Perhaps a guy like Ohman, Cotts, or Novoa might be dealt, but again I don't see much in return coming for one of them (in terms of quality starting pitching).

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Nov 25, 2006 1:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Trade Concerns

There has been a lot of talk here, and elsewhere, of trades involving Murton, Jones, Barrett, Izturis, Ohman, Cotts, Novoa and others. The apparent surplus of lefty relievers currently on hand implies a trade of one of them. Additionally, Murton has been mentioned more than anyone and I am very uncomfortable with that. I think Murton is a star waiting to happen. OTOH, Novoa scares me. I have a bad feeling every time he comes into a game so I'd like to see him as part of a package.

by Luigi on Nov 25, 2006 4:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Zito is not

glavine or some other old lion looking to play one more seaons where he wants-- he is a FA who has waited to be on the open market and will sign with who gives him the dollars

If the Cubs come with a big contract he is going to sign, he obviously knows we are going for broke his agent has a good relationship with JH and i dont buy into this theory that he is only going to play on the west coast so he can surf or whatever the rumor is

Bottom line Zito is the better of the two best-- and IF we somehow sign him and trade for Westbrook you have a very serious playoff caliber team

"Its not like we need 10-12 players to contend"

by ksucubbie on Nov 25, 2006 1:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely

agree. For all his faults (every player has their own set of faults) Zito is just about the best available, and it only takes money to get him. Westbrook is a descent pitcher and I suspect he'd be a fine 3 or 4. Jennings is interesting also. Peter Gammons had a little blurb about Jason Schmidt on his blog about how he's not the same pitcher he used to be but he's changed his style and is still very good. I'm not scared about his health or age. In fact the length of Soriano's contract should be much more troubling than what Schmidt will likely end up with and most of us are happy enough that we got him.

by pageian on Nov 25, 2006 8:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Jake Westbrook and Josh Johnson.....get it done!

Jacque Jones and Roberto Novoa for Westbrook and Matt Murton and Will Ohman for Josh Johnson......

Check out my daily baseball blog at MLB-threeSIXTYfive and GET J.D. DREW!!!

by TheBeerBaron on Nov 25, 2006 1:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Not going to happen

Why on Earth would Cleveland or Colorado make such a stupid trade?!?

If Westbrook was a FA today, he would be looking at likely 3-4 years at $10M/ season. There is no way Cleveland will give him up for a mopup duty reliever and an average OF with a bum shoulder.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Nov 25, 2006 1:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Cleveland might be interested in Jones...

...however, if they are dealing Westbrook, they are going to want relief help first and foremost.

Jones, Eyre/Ohman/Cotts, Wuertz, and young pitcher like Marshall, Guzman, Mateo, etc, at minimum.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Nov 25, 2006 2:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yep....

I was just mentioning it as a starting point....

Check out my daily baseball blog at MLB-threeSIXTYfive and GET J.D. DREW!!!

by TheBeerBaron on Nov 25, 2006 2:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think a lot of what the Cubs (and everyone else)

...will do is determined by what happens with Kei Igawa.

Beyond that, to this point Hendry has certainly set the market for hitters, so I'm not sure he's going to sit back and let others set the market for pitching. But I guess we'll see.

by cwyers on Nov 25, 2006 2:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I like

Gil Meche. Seriously.

Sounds insane, but I really think Gil Meche is going to be a good pitcher for the next few years.

Both Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt were pretty bad after the all-star break. I don't think either one is on the verge of collapse, but I think both have started their slow decline into mediocrity. I don't think either is worth the huge contracts they are going to command, and I don't think either will be a lot better than Gil Meche.

Kei Igawa is interesting. Some days I really want him and some days I really want him far, far away. Watching him pitch on YouTube makes me think he really needs to get an American pitching coach and an American weight-training regimen and he'll be a quality #2 or #3 starter. But I'm not sure he has the personality to re-build himself as a pitcher from the ground up.

A little song, a little dance. A little seltzer down your pants

by Josh77 on Nov 25, 2006 2:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you

I'd take Meche at what he'll sign for over some of the other likely deals and especially Schmidt. Schmidt for 3 years really scares me.

by rlpete on Nov 25, 2006 2:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't Zito

and the whole Oakland A's for that matter known for being better AFTER the all star break?

Los Cachorros!

by Laven on Nov 25, 2006 6:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Murton

has to go in a deal -- if the report about Cliff Floyd is true f/WGN Radio (another diary) -- My bet is Murton's going to be shipped in a trade for pitching. One of the young starters would probably be included.

by Smooth Jazz Man San Diego on Nov 25, 2006 3:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I concur

Check out my daily baseball blog at MLB-threeSIXTYfive and GET J.D. DREW!!!

by TheBeerBaron on Nov 25, 2006 3:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Completely Disagree

I posted this in another diary. If indeed Floyd is heading in, that to me is a pretty strong statement that Murton is here to stay. I can't imagine that Hendry is planning on Floyd being the everyday guy in LF.
I see Floyd coming in to be a bench bat, designed to back up Lee and be in a semi-platoon with Murton.

Furthermore, that to me means that neither Soriano nor Jones will be in LF. Floyd backing up Soriano obviously doesn't make sense, same for backing up Jones.

At this point, I see the OF as being set with Murton/Floyd, Soriano, Jones, unless the Cubs can trade Jones and bring in a new CF option (Lugo? Lofton?) who could be a short termer in CF until Pie is ready.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Nov 25, 2006 3:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i just agree that Murton is likely to

be moved for pitching.

Check out my daily baseball blog at MLB-threeSIXTYfive and GET J.D. DREW!!!

by TheBeerBaron on Nov 25, 2006 4:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Murton will go

Just a feeling but I think he'll stay. Either Piniella or Hendry said something about him being a good player, yada yada yada..... Made me feel like they expect him to be a starter next year. Of course that could have been posturing, driving up his trade value etc. I don't think so though. Not with the amounts of money we are spending lately, guys like Murton are invaluable. Trading Jones is the better option even if we get less back in trade. Murton's low salary makes him that much more attractive to a team that is investing heavily in other players. Besides, I think and I hope others realize that Murton is more likely to be a better player the next few years than Jones is. Murton showed improvement last year just as you would expect a kid with talent to do. Jones had a season that wasn't really in line with his much larger body of work. I think it's a safe bet that Murton will continue to improve while Jones will regress to the mean. Add in that Murton is cheaper and it's a no-brainer.

by pageian on Nov 25, 2006 8:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I tend to agree with you

I really don't think Hendry is looking to sign Cliff Floyd to be the everyday LF. And Floyd is an OLD 33, with only FIVE of the last 12 seasons with 149+ games played, and all of the other seven with less than 125. And his BA over the last three yeara has dropped 25 points off of the previous three seasons.

Floyd is here to do three things:

play LF against righty starters who have awful L/R splits
be the two-out RISP pinch hitter for Izturis and the pitchers, and
be insurance in case Lee gets hurt again.

by Invalid User on Nov 25, 2006 8:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd rather have Meche...

Zito in Wrigley = mucho hom ron!

GREAT SUCCESS!!!

by Chitown Mojo on Nov 25, 2006 4:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

We need

a solid #2 and #4.

by The New Curse on Nov 25, 2006 5:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Nope

We need a GREAT 2 and a decent 3. Hill 4 and 5 can be Cotts or by committee or whatever.

HENDRY!

by cubbiejulie on Nov 26, 2006 12:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I've been reading

all of the exceellent posts and one thing no one brings up is the fact if we are trying to be a playof team we need a strong number 2. Z can beat anybody but are we going to trust Hill? Prior (no way unless he proves it)? Marshall? Miller? I feel we need 2 good pitchers but to be a playoff team we need the #1 and #2 starters. So, do we want to be good or a winner in the playoffs?

Spendry!!!

by mrcubsfan on Nov 26, 2006 5:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

Remember when everyone was worried that Pedro was old and injury prone and had lost five miles off his fastball?

Well all three turned out to be true, but I bet the Mets are much happier with Pedro than the Bluejays are with AJ Burnett... Think the Yankees regret signing Carl Pavano? How bout Jaret Wright? Bet the Braves are happy to have an aging John Smoltz though and a Mike Hampton returning from a lost season.

Thing is that I see this behavior in fantasy leagues all the time... everyone likes the younger pitchers with recent success. But it turns out the veteran pitchers.. those with a history of success are the best bets for future success.. even if they are old and injury prone and overrated and had a bad second half. Gil Meche? I hope you guys are right and he turns out to be a decent pitcher, but I think the chances are just as good he ends up out a rotation by next August. Don't have to worry about that with Barry Zito though... worse case scenario is he carries a 4.50 ERA and ends with only a dozen wins. (Wait - thats Meche's career best right that he accomplished last year right?)

The way I see it you are always better off with the top tier free agent than the second. Better off with SOriano than Pierre, better off with Carlos Beltran than whoever was the second tier outfielder two summers ago - who was it again?

Just my opinion of course. But one that I see play out every summer.

by broham on Nov 26, 2006 12:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Number 4?

Can anyone name an instance where a pitcher was signed as a free agent to be the number 4 pitcher in a rotation and were happy with the results? Would love an example.

by broham on Nov 26, 2006 12:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

that is very easy..

so easy, in fact, that I can give you examples just from Chicago. Greg Maddux was brought over as a number 4/5, and we were pleased with his results over the last couple years. Same thing can arguably be said with Jose Contreras (although that was in a trade). He gave the Sox a very impressive 2005 and first half of 2006.

The 4 and 5 starters aren't going to be aces, even in the best of pitching rotations.

Baby, you got a stew goin'

by Thelonious on Nov 26, 2006 1:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Not a 4, but a 5

The White Sox signed Esteban Loiaza as a NRI as one of two candidates for the #5 spot a couple of years ago. It was a very low-risk signing, little money and if it didn't work out he'd be eating innings in Charlotte. It turned out very well for one year, and when Loiaza regressed to the mean Kenny Williams flipped his cheap contract for Contreras, and milked a strong year out of him split between the 2nd half of 05 and the first half of 06.

by Invalid User on Nov 26, 2006 1:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs