Maddux not certain to sign with Dodgers

by JFCubFan on Nov 4, 2006 12:55 PM CST Comment 27 comments

As a Greg Maddux fan I read with interest this morning in the LA Times that there are questions surrounding what many thought was a done deal with the Dodgers for next season.

Clearly, he was a great deal for the Dodgers last season and was an important part in their August turnaround that propelled them into the playoffs.

But now he is asking for a multi-year contract at his usual $8Mil/year salary and the Dodgers may not want to pony up those bucks when they are eyeing guys like Zito in the free agent market.

Of course, this certainly leaves the possibility of a return to the Cubs if Hendry fails to sign a FA starter.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers4nov04,1,393586.story?coll=la-headli nes-sports&ctrack=1&cset=true

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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What it would take to sign Maddux

Ned Colletti is fired by the Dodgers who also decide to fire Little and hire Dusty. The Padres, Giants, Cardinals, Braves & D'Backs & Brewers are so angry at Boras and his contracts that as a matter of princible they refuse to make an offer to for Maddux. Kathy Maddux figures what the hell they have not sold the house in the burbs yet , the kids will get to spend more time with Uncle Mike and convinces Greg not to retire but to go back
to the Cubs because at least he can have some fun,make some money and not mope around the house.

Seriously HE IS NOT COMING BACK. Colletti is NEVER gonna
let him go and it is NOT gonna be about money. He DOES
want two years exactly because HE DOES NOT LIKE TO
MOVE AROUND ( and the Dodgers are a PERFECT fit). This
will get worked out most likely as 2 year contract with EITHER
mutual option with buyout or vesting at the Maddux standard
200 innings. With Glavine poised to sign a two year deal for
25 million and Moyer having signed one for 10.2, Boras
will get one in the middle.
I don't even want to get into why he would NEVER come back
to the Cubs as that would be too painful but I think my sig
says it all.

I love the ballpark. I love the city. I love the fans. Aside from how we've played this year, there's nothing not to like about Chicago." Greg Maddux 7/29/06

by jessica on Nov 4, 2006 1:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Jessica,

I understand you're a Maddux fan, but you can't honestly be that sure he's going to re-sign with the Dodgers simply because of Ned Colletti. $8 million a year for 2 years is an awful lot of money for a #5 starter that can be found on the waiver wire or in your minor leagues for league minimum. Colletti didn't get to where he is by spending money unwisely and a 2-year deal for Maddux is as bad a decision as giving Neifi a 2-year deal. Yes...it is. Neifi made less money, but it was still a horrible deal. Giving Maddux a 2-year deal is not only horrible, it is a deal that should lead to Colletti being fired. No sane general manager is going to give Maddux a 2-year deal for $16 million. It will not happen. His VORP on the season was 32.7, which included 2 months of a BABIP of .263 with the Dodgers. That number WILL increase. He gave up fewer hits per nine innings with the Dodgers than he had since 2000.

He's a number 5 starter at this point in his career who should probably retire. His best days are way past him and he's only going to get worse from this point forward. If the Dodgers, or any team for that matter, give him a $16 million, 2-year contract it will prove to be one of the worst signs in the 2006-07 offseason. There is no possible way Maddux can come remotely close to producing as much as he'd need to in order to validate that kind of contract. In reality, Julie, he's worth 1 year, $2 million and not a penny more. It possible he'd be a bargain at that rate, but considering that you could get similar production out of a decent minor leaguer for league minimum, even that is a terrible deal.

I say this with all the respect in the world for Greg Maddux. Simply put, he's the greatest pitcher I've ever seen pitch. And nobody, not I or anybody else, has the right to say it's time to hang it up. He'll quit when he wants to. He's earned that right. And if he continues to pitch, I'll watch as many of those starts as possible because there isn't going to be another Greg Maddux. Even in Maddux's bad outings, there are still those precious moments where he mystifies the hitters with that knee buckling change to the lefty. That, in my opinion, still makes Maddux worth watching. And those days he has it all working, that's just pretty fun stuff to watch. But unless Maddux is willing to sign for less and only for one year, I just can't imagine any team in baseball meeting his demands, Julie. Why? Because it's not a good baseball decision. You're weakening your team at the expense of a higher payroll if do.

by Maddog on Nov 4, 2006 7:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sorry...

I referred to Jessica as Julie a couple times. Sorry about that.

by Maddog on Nov 4, 2006 7:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Eh

Who can tell any of us broads apart, anyway?

;)

"Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. It's more democratic." Crash Davis

by cubbiejulie on Nov 4, 2006 7:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I can.. I think

Jessica loves Maddux, Julie loves The Simpsons OR Julie has the dialy non diaries and Jessica, who used to post all the time, only posts when the subject is Maddux.

by fuzzycubfan on Nov 5, 2006 8:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Not true

I also post about "Orange Guy" , Ticket issues,
Trib sale, etc. It is just that I will take up any GM
issue

I love the ballpark. I love the city. I love the fans. Aside from how we've played this year, there's nothing not to like about Chicago." Greg Maddux 7/29/06

by jessica on Nov 5, 2006 4:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

And I'm the one

that finds Murton wholly unattractive and doesn't get the obsession with him.

"Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. It's more democratic." Crash Davis

by cubbiejulie on Nov 6, 2006 9:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

8 million is probably a bargain for Maddux

When he left the Cubs I figured maybe half that but
his rejunivation in LA which I think had as much to do
with having better infielders than being at more pitcher
friendly park changed all of that. His ERA not just in LA
but with the DODGERS was excellent. He gets in 200 innings
as regularly as his Gold Gloves. This is piss poor market
for pitchers. Guys like Lily & Meche will end up with THREE
contracts around 8 million per. The ONLY real question on
Maddux getting around 8 is if LA is going to get any flexibility
on the 2nd year in terms of buyout or a vest. In the end I think
they will because Maddux wants to stay and being the competitor he is the buyout or vesting just becomes a challange.
I don't think Maddux is gonna let Boras drag this out either
He might but doubt it. Colletti LOVES Maddux and he is not going anywhere.

Sorry for late response but I still have limited BCB access on
weekends and I think other folks handled it well

PS happy to make a friendly bet that Maddux will be
the Dodgers # 3 pitcher next year

I love the ballpark. I love the city. I love the fans. Aside from how we've played this year, there's nothing not to like about Chicago." Greg Maddux 7/29/06

by jessica on Nov 5, 2006 4:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

OOPS

um I meant Lily and Mench would get three YEAR contracts
not 3 contracts

I love the ballpark. I love the city. I love the fans. Aside from how we've played this year, there's nothing not to like about Chicago." Greg Maddux 7/29/06

by jessica on Nov 5, 2006 4:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

While all of this is true....

... from a statistical standpoint, that is, as you well know, not the only reasons players are signed, and sometimes at an age at which they really SHOULD retire.

Greg Maddux may be one of those exceptions.

by Al on Nov 4, 2006 7:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Possible, Al,

but unlikely. From a financial standpoint involving production, Maddux is worth maybe $2 million over one year. I think you could justify a deal of one year for $4 million based on who Maddux is, but anything more than that...and anything close to 2 years and $16 million is just negligent on the part of the GM who gives that out. I'll be shocked to see Maddux sign a 2 year deal. I'll be shocked to see him get more than $6 million (baseball teams unfortunately don't view things as they should). And $6 million considering that you could get the kind of production you're going to get from Maddux from some minor league pitchers as well as some off the waiver wires is really an egregious error on the part of whoever signs him.

by Maddog on Nov 4, 2006 10:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

As I said...

... not everything done in baseball is done from, as you put it, "a financial standpoint involving production".

Statistics don't tell the whole story. I understand what you are trying to say here, but those aren't the only factors, and to say it's "negligent", or "an egregious error", ignores those factors.

by Al on Nov 5, 2006 4:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

BPro had Maddux at

a WARP1 of 2.6 with LA and 3.3 with the Cubs last year. In the 2000s, the lowest WARP1 he has ever had is 4.5 in 2003. That is considerably more valuable than $2 million.

As was pointed out above, Jamie Moyer got a 2 x $5 million a year contract that could go as high as $14.5 million if he hits all the incentives for innings pitched.

Jamie Moyer's ERA+ was 102 in 2006, 101 in 2005, 83 in 2004. Maddux's ERA+ was 110 in 2006, 101 in 2005, 113 in 2004.

Even if you assume that Maddux's skills deteriorate, and that he can give you only 2 wins above replacement, he would still worth about $4 million a year. If he can give you 4 wins above replacement, $8 million a year is eminently reasonable.

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh on Nov 5, 2006 8:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

PECOTA

projects Maddux to be 5.9 WARP combined over the next 3 seasons before retiring. His MORP over the next 3 seasons is projected at $7.7 million TOTAL.

This is anything but concrete evidence as to what Maddux's value is in dollars, but there's just no way he's worth $16 million over 2 years and i'll bet anything right now that he doesn't get it. He wanted $36 over 3 guaranteed years 3 years ago and got 2 years guaranteed for $15 million. Now he's asking for what he got last time he entered free agency. No way does he get it.

by Maddog on Nov 5, 2006 7:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That projection is based on the

assumption that he will fall of the cliff after 2007. They still project a WARP of 3.4 next year.

PECOTA also projected a WARP of 1.7 for Jamie Moyer this year. It also projects a WARP of 0.9 in 2007, and 0.9 in 2008 and a MORP of about a million each in both years. Furthermore it projects that Moyer will be retired after 2007.

Moyer just signed a new contract that pays him between $10 to $14.5 million over 2 years.

Both Moyer and Maddux's forecasts should change when the new projectstion come out.

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh on Nov 6, 2006 12:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Maddux's DIPS

this year are also impressive. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 3.80 with the Cubs, and 3.71 with LA. xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) was 3.90 and 4.15.

Some comparisons. Zito's FIP was was 4.94, whilst his xFIP was 5.46! Brandon Webb, 3.20 FIP, 3.13 xFIP. Carlos Zambrano , 4.15 FIP, 4.43 xFIP. Jason Schmidt, 3.93 FIP, 4.63 xFIP.

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh on Nov 6, 2006 12:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well,

That's some strong evidence that I'm wrong. He appears to be more valuable than I'm giving him credit.

by Maddog on Nov 6, 2006 2:26 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You might think about changing that moniker

I would have THOUGHT you understood how good
he still is. I don't get the thing about folks wanting
him to retire because he is not the ace he was in his prime.
If he does not mind being just a good pitcher helping his
team why should you or other fans ? The guy still has
FUN and he is still fun to watch so what if he does not have
an ERA under 3.00 ?

I love the ballpark. I love the city. I love the fans. Aside from how we've played this year, there's nothing not to like about Chicago." Greg Maddux 7/29/06

by jessica on Nov 6, 2006 8:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Jessica...

Please re-read the last paragraph of my initial comment on this diary...

I was clearly wrong when I was evaluating Maddux. I apologize for that. Rather than looking at stats to bolster my opinion as I almost always do, I simply went with what I saw with my eyes and my opinion suffered as a result. He's better than I was giving him credit for. And no matter what, Jessica, he's still Greg Maddux and he's earned the right to pitch in this league as long as he wants and I'll watch him as long as he continues to do so with great pleasure. Even the bad outings.

by Maddog on Nov 6, 2006 11:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Does

my sig cheer you up?

"Incidentally, Colossus was right and I was wrong about Maddux being dealt." -Al Yellon

by colossus on Nov 4, 2006 7:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting article.

If the Dodgers sign all of those players mentioned then it's hard to picture Maddux leaving them because they'd be a serious contender for the 2007 WS from the NL.

The chance to contend has to mean more to him now than the money. And to play in a pitcher's park? Hard to pass up.

by DudeVf1 on Nov 4, 2006 6:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Pitchers park

is the key thing for Maddux at this point probably. With him in Dodger Stadium or similar (Petco?) and a good defense behind him he'd still be a pretty good pitcher. 15 wins, 4.00 era and 200 innings, his standard for the last few years. $8 million, or about half what Zito is going to make wouldn't be a bad deal especially when you consider that those numbers are about what Zito does anymore too. Of course, under those ideal conditions quite a few pitchers could be pretty good. Still, I'd take a 41 year old Maddux before I'd take any of the Ted Lilly types.

I would love to see Maddux come back to Chicago as the 5th starter but I'd be really surprised if it happened. Like Jessica I don't see it happening.

by pageian on Nov 4, 2006 7:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Maddux

will eventually re-sign with the Dodgers. That much I am sure.

by BlueMike on Nov 4, 2006 8:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

either there or San Diego...

...but he's not coming back here.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Nov 6, 2006 6:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

maddux

any pitcher regardless of his age who can win 15 games will easily get 8 mill.if maddux wants to come back he,ll find a suitor for his services

by NOMAR on Nov 5, 2006 5:10 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I don't care where Maddux goes...

...as long as it's NOT with the Cubs.

Thanks for the memories Greg but I don't want you back in CHicago.

by escapegoat on Nov 5, 2006 9:06 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Today's SI rumors

Peg's Maddux at 18- 20 million for a two year deal
He will take less and be a Dodger

I love the ballpark. I love the city. I love the fans. Aside from how we've played this year, there's nothing not to like about Chicago." Greg Maddux 7/29/06

by jessica on Nov 7, 2006 10:52 AM CST reply actions 0 recs