Matsuzaka

by roach on Nov 5, 2006 3:56 PM CST

I don't think he will be worth anywhere near what it will cost to get him. About 20 million for the posting fee and then ten million a year. He is not tested at all in a major league enviorment. Zito which will end up costing around the same amount is tested at the major league level. The cubs also don't need to pay for the crowd drawq that Matsuzaka would be, if they just get a slightly better team people will come. I understand that he has a possibility to be great but he will most likely go to the yankees after the original deal is over.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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In fact...

... he HAS been tested in a major league environment, the WBC, where he was the MVP.

Every scout who saw him there said he could be a #1 starter for any major league teaam.

That's good enough for me. GET HIM.

by Al Yellon on Nov 5, 2006 4:55 PM CST reply actions

Tests

Matsuzaka has also done well in international competition, aka the Olympics and has also been very difficult to hit in previous MLB/NPB all-star contests. I realize that the Japanese players who have burned their MLB teams with poor performance have been myriad, but remember that many of these players are older veterans nearing the end of their productive years. Without exception, we've never had a true Japanese pitching superstar of Matsuzaka's quality, age and competitive spirit play over here, because in general, the NPB ensures their best players are well compensated to keep them in Japan.

by TMOX on Nov 6, 2006 7:18 PM CST up reply actions

WBC

of course every player in the WBC was fully prepared right. They all had a complete spring training before that and were ready to play meaningfull baseball

by roach on Nov 5, 2006 4:58 PM CST reply actions

Actually...

... none of them were. Everyone was on more or less equal footing.

by Al Yellon on Nov 5, 2006 5:01 PM CST up reply actions

that's not really true

at the beginning of baseball seasons pitchers tend to have an advantage over hitters because what hitters do depends so much on having absolutely perfect timing which takes time to come back. I would imagine that this is even more noticeable if nobody had even been to spring training yet.

Note: This is based on my experience in high school, but I can't think of any reason why it wouldn't apply to the pros because in both cases the players are more or less on equal footing as far as ability goes.

Not saying you're wrong about Matsuzaka, Al. I'm just pointing this out.

by tal1286 on Nov 5, 2006 5:19 PM CST up reply actions

That's true....

... I wasn't so much referring to pitchers vs. hitters, as I was to Japanese players in general vs. American players, who had both had about the same length of time off from the previous year.

by Al Yellon on Nov 5, 2006 5:33 PM CST up reply actions

i see

that makes sense.

by tal1286 on Nov 5, 2006 5:53 PM CST up reply actions

That's true

But honestly Al, the Japanese players take spring training a whole lot more seriously than American players do. I think that's one reason why Japan and Korea did so well in the WBC.

Still, I can't help but compare what people are saying about Japanese players today with what people said about players in the Negro Leagues in the 1930s and 40s. "Oh, sure they do well against inferior competition, but if they actually had to face real major leaguers, they couldn't compete." You'd think Ichiro, Hideki Matsui and Hideo Nomo would disprove that, but prejudices die hard.

Unfortunately, the WBC may have been the worst thing to happen to NPB. Sure, it was a huge source of pride, but it shocked the traditional baseball people by showing how much actual talent there is in the East Asia. I think a year ago, a lot of general managers would have agreed with this diary. Not any more. And it looks like over the next five years, there is going to be a frenzy of NPB players coming over to MLB.

NPB is clearly not as strong as MLB. Neither were the Negro Leagues of the 1940s. Yet there were still dozens of superstars waiting to happen. Same with Japan. There are probably 40 or 50 Major League quality players over there and probably 10-15 stars (and right now, at least one superstar). But if Matsuzaka put up the numbers he did in NPB in the PCL, everyone would be talking about how he was the greatest prospect in baseball. And while the level of play in NPB may not be at the major league level, I don't know any knowledgeable observer who doesn't think the quality of play is higher than AAA.

The only thing that could keep Matsuzaka from becoming a superstar is an injury.

by Josh Timmers on Nov 5, 2006 6:36 PM CST up reply actions

Stupid double-standards

"But if Matsuzaka put up the numbers he did in NPB in the PCL, everyone would be talking about how he was the greatest prospect in baseball. And while the level of play in NPB may not be at the major league level, I don't know any knowledgeable observer who doesn't think the quality of play is higher than AAA."

Which is why it would be so hard for him to win Rookie of the Year next year. Everyone knows Japan is damn good. I just think it's funny (not really) how the same people who wouldn't vote for a Japanese person because he "wasn't really a rookie" are typically the same ones who would say a Japanese player couldn't do as well in the Majors. (That's a gross over-generalization, I know, but I think people see what I mean.

I personally think, FWIW, that they should change the ROY definitions to exclude Japanese players-not for any racist reason, but just so I don't have to hear all the pundits bitch about whether or not Matsuzaka should win the ROY if he puts up a 16-5 season with a 3.00 ERA, and have it be close... blah blah. My mind is wandering.

"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." -- Albert Einstein

by tyger1147 on Nov 5, 2006 10:17 PM CST up reply actions

Nobody

is arguing opposition to Japanese players is racist here, just a fear of the unknown.

As far as the ROY thing goes, it gets back to the same issue we have with the MVP. What does it mean to be a rookie? If it means "First year playing MLB" then of course Japanese imports should be eligible.

It can't mean "First year as a professional" as it does in football and basketball, since minor league players are clearly professionals and we don't go around giving the ROY award to the best player in the NY-Penn League.

But it also can't mean "First year in that league" since we don't, and never have, given a ROY award to someone who had been traded between leagues. For example, no one would argue that Jacque Jones should be eligible for ROY this season, even though it was his first season in the NL.

If it is "First season in a Major league" then you could exclude Japanese players if you want to consider NPB to be a major league on equal footing with the NL and AL. But I don't think anyone considers NPB to be on an equal footing as the NL or AL, even if they are considered better than the IL or PCL. Of course, the World Series notwithstanding, you could argue the NL wasn't on an equal footing with the AL this season. :-)

The only comparable situation is the NHL. (And honestly, I see a flood of Asian players coming to America in the next decade similar to the flood of Russian players that the NHL got in the 1990s) After Sergei Makarov won the Calder Memorial Trophy in 1991 at the age of 32, they changed the rules so that a winner of the Calder Trophy had to be age 26 or younger. This hasn't really been an issue in the NHL since, because most players in the Russian or the Swedish leagues who are good enough to go to the NHL are now there well before age 26--the Makarov situation being a Cold War artifact.

But if MLB adopted such a rule, they'd have to exclude players who had simply toiled in the minors until they were 27. I haven't found any ROY at 27 or older (except Jackie Robinson and Japanese players) but I've found a ton who were 26. But if you set a ROY age limit at 27 or 28, well, then you wouldn't be excluding Matsuzaka.

This is a long essay on a minor point. To tell the truth, I don't have a problem with NPB players winning the ROY, nor do I really have a problem excluding them. To me, the ROY award isn't such a big deal. Ask Bob Hamelin, Pat Listach, Marty Cordova or Ben Grieve. Those are the guys I'd like to see excluded from the ROY voting. :-)

by Josh Timmers on Nov 6, 2006 1:20 AM CST up reply actions

Slightly different, but along the same lines as

far as equality is concerned: I also think that all players should be subject to the draft (japanese, dominican, etc.) when first arriving for MLB availability. They could still get big signing bonuses and would create signability issues for some small market teams, but it would create a more equal footing (in this case, maybe MLB pays the posting fee for Matsuzaka, since it is really just all MLB owners' association).

"My uncle says you've got a screw loose." -- "Your uncle molests collies."

by jcub on Nov 6, 2006 5:26 PM CST up reply actions