Projections

by sparkles721 on Dec 1, 2006 4:02 PM CST

I'm not sure how many of you visit Maddog's site, but you all should. He has interesting stuff over there, and always very detailed but easy to understand at the same time.

Anyway, I saw he posted 2007 Bill James projections for Cubs players in addition to players the Cubs have been associated with this offseason.

I thought guys would like to see them.

Here are some 2007 ZiPS Projections that Various Styles posted a while ago, so you can compare. As Maddog says in his posts on his blog, they are pretty similar.

Nobody's stats really make me excited. Z has a lot of walks. But, Rich Hill though has a TON of K's and Soriano has 38 homers. Other than that I'm not impressed and I probably shouldn't be. Or I'm just being pessimistic right now. I don't know. Ramirez has pretty good stats too.

I would've like to see the Bill James projections of this year posted with the actual results from this past season like Various Styles did with the ZiPS. I also like to see how wrong or right they are. Maybe Maddog could post some for me? Please? :)

Projections don't say exactly what a player will do, but they are fun to look at.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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128 IP/3.73 ERA for Prior

At this point, I'd be excited if we got that much production out of him.

by VS on Dec 1, 2006 4:04 PM CST reply actions

deeto

N/T

by escapegoat on Dec 1, 2006 4:07 PM CST up reply actions

yea.......

and 145 K to go along with 45 BB. It would be even better if we could get 25-30 starts from him.

RAMIREZ!! PRIOR!! Get MANNY!!!!

by PriorandAramisfan23 on Dec 1, 2006 4:09 PM CST up reply actions

Thanks, sparkles.

I was actually going to post the actual results of his 2006 projections sometime this weekend. I didn't do this last year, so I don't have them as organized as the 2007 season's projections. I might have it up and ready to look at by tomorrow night.

by Maddog on Dec 1, 2006 4:06 PM CST reply actions

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Pie - .287/.337/.480/.834 - I'd be thrilled if Pie managed to put up that line in his first full season but personally I believe .270/.320/.440 is much more likely.

Murton - .316/.383/.481/.864 - Sweet. Both ZiPS and James are fairly optimistic when it comes to Murton. I bet that his numbers are very similar to Carlos Lee's.

Soriano - .275/.331/.522/.853 - Eh, I'll take that, I guess.

by VS on Dec 1, 2006 4:17 PM CST reply actions

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Terry-O (.287/.357/.381/.737) looks like a solid bench player (...better than our starting SS, anyway).

Also, Henry Blanco, Ronny Cedeno, and Cesar Izturis are bad at baseball.

by VS on Dec 1, 2006 4:20 PM CST up reply actions

Man Law!

TRAMMELL!

by Faith plus 1 on Dec 1, 2006 4:21 PM CST up reply actions

Izturis's

looks reaaall good!!

TRAMMELL!

by Faith plus 1 on Dec 1, 2006 4:17 PM CST reply actions

That's right

He's an INTEGRAL part of this team. He's the ANCHOR. That's what Mike says anyway.

formerly mfarrell

by gravedigger on Dec 1, 2006 4:24 PM CST up reply actions

This too

coming from the man (Mike) who garaunteed we'd retain Juan Pierre.......

Hendry: 2
Mike: 0

TRAMMELL!

by Faith plus 1 on Dec 1, 2006 4:26 PM CST up reply actions

Izturis

I don't have a problem with Izturis at SS. SS is the most important Defensive position on the field and sure I'd rather have a great fielding SS and hitting SS but they're not out that.

And that includes Julio Lugo!

Cubs are fine with Izturis at SS.

by escapegoat on Dec 1, 2006 4:32 PM CST up reply actions

Don't forget that he said that

the CUBS have ZERO % chance of signing Soriano.

Check out my daily baseball blog at MLB-threeSIXTYfive

by TheBeerBaron on Dec 1, 2006 4:35 PM CST up reply actions

It's funny to see

Wood starting 16 games

THE FONZ HAS ARRIVED!

by amaru on Dec 1, 2006 4:24 PM CST reply actions

See...

... that's one reason that these things aren't very worthwhile. Everyone knows that Wood is going to be a reliever -- except for some computer programs.

These are for entertainment, nothing more.

by Al Yellon on Dec 1, 2006 4:41 PM CST up reply actions

These can be annoying

I completely freaked out at Maddux's projections last year
Nothing wrong the numbers per se but it
had him with TWO relief appearences when he had releived
in 15 years. I know it is just stats but it was NUTS

I love the ballpark. I love the city. I love the fans. Aside from how we've played this year, there's nothing not to like about Chicago." Greg Maddux 7/29/06

by jessica on Dec 1, 2006 4:53 PM CST up reply actions

Well

some of the prediction have slight merit to them...the projections for the everyday position players are for the most on par with past performance. But this has no value in determining how good the Cubs are going to be, or how many wins and losses they are going have.

On the case of the predicted pitching performances, when it comes to the Cubs, that's about as predictable as picking the lottery....Wait i'm wrong it IS predictable: I predict injuries.

THE FONZ HAS ARRIVED!

by amaru on Dec 1, 2006 4:57 PM CST up reply actions

That's ridiculous.

These are based on a player's past numbers as well as similar players and a wealth of other data. To simply dismiss these as entertainment is crazy. They've proven to be rather accurate and, if anything, they are a very solid representation of the level of talent that actually exists on the team.

yes, many will overachieve these expectations, but an equal number underachieve and the majority of the players will meet these expectations within a few percentage points of being exact. No, there's no way to figure out which groups these players will fall into, but this most certainly has value.

Saying it's for entertainment, Al, is no different than quoting me someone's stats from last season as evidence of why he will be a good player to sign. It's the same thing, except the projections take into account more data than the basic stats can tell us. I think we could all agree that Juan Pierre isn't going to hit 50 home runs. We KNOW this to be true because of his past stats, which are without doubt relevant to any discussion or potential signing.

And for the record, James predicted Wood would start 4 games...not 16 as the other poster stated.

by Maddog on Dec 1, 2006 5:47 PM CST up reply actions

That sounded harsh.

I apologize. It wasn't intended to.

by Maddog on Dec 1, 2006 6:27 PM CST up reply actions

4 starts!

Check it again!

by Maddog on Dec 1, 2006 5:43 PM CST up reply actions

sorry

I glimpsed over it too quick.

Although even then I doubt Wood starts a game as a cubbie again. Maybe later in his career another team might try down that road....

THE FONZ HAS ARRIVED!

by amaru on Dec 1, 2006 5:51 PM CST up reply actions

That may be,

but Piniella and Hendry have stated that he may end up back in the rotation. I doubt he makes 4 starts either, but the thing that you guys have missed because you've focused on the little things is that he makes 4 starts and ONLY 27 relief appearances while tossing only 52 innings. Obviously James algorithms project an injury of some sort.

by Maddog on Dec 1, 2006 6:02 PM CST up reply actions

IIRC

One of Wood's incentive clauses in his new deal compensate him generously for "finishing" 20 games or more.....

Check out my daily baseball blog at MLB-threeSIXTYfive

by TheBeerBaron on Dec 1, 2006 6:48 PM CST up reply actions

And....

From http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/

Wood may earn additional incentives based on

-games finished
-appearances
-days on active roster

Check out my daily baseball blog at MLB-threeSIXTYfive

by TheBeerBaron on Dec 1, 2006 6:52 PM CST up reply actions

True,

but the money in the future largely depends on him getting back into the rotation. I don't expect to see him start next season though it would not surprise me one bit to see him make a few spot starts.

Most importantly, are these projections that absurd because it has Wood starting 4 games while relieving in 27? I don't know, but it seems petty to me.

by Maddog on Dec 1, 2006 6:54 PM CST up reply actions

Trust me, I'm with you....

All these projections are like picking up a Fantasy Football magazine before your draft.......don't put too much stock into it.....and it's just computer averages.....

I do however--like the Rich Hill projections by Bill James....

Check out my daily baseball blog at MLB-threeSIXTYfive

by TheBeerBaron on Dec 1, 2006 6:58 PM CST up reply actions