John Sickels rates the top cub prospects. You don't look busy. Why don't you too?

by Thelonious on Dec 14, 2006 4:16 PM CST Comment 54 comments

over at minorleagueball, sickels is scheduled to come out with the top 20 list of cubs prospects some time today, and I'm giddy in anticipation. Although this may be the cherry on top of the diary pollution landfill, I figured I would rank my top 5, and open the floor for either your version of the top 5, or more pirate jokes.

The way I see it:

Don Veal
Felix Pie
Sean Gallagharrrgh (still thinking about pirates)
Mark Pawelek (look for a breakout 07)
Eric Patterson (not a huge fan, but he is the relatively close to the majors)

Honorable mentions: Jeff Samardzija, Tyler Colvin, Scott Moore, Mitch Atkins

That is a sorry list after the first few. There ARE guys deeper in the system that may one day make it (chris Huesby comes to mind and possibly Jose Ceda), but they are too far away right now to list above.

Also, we lost lincoln Holdzkom in the rule V draft, and I would really like to get him back, because he apparently throws a mid 90s fastball with good sink, and never gives up homers (caveat: he's had arm problems). I am annoyed that the cubs protected rocky cherry, rather than holdzkom: typical stupid cub move. Update [2006-12-14 19:5:16 by Thelonious Drunk]: The rankings are officially up. Sickels had the exact same players in his top 5 as me, although some have switched places. http://www.minorleagueball.com/

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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My feeling is...

... the Astros won't keep Holdzkom and the Cubs will get him back. Yes, he has a good fastball, but he is 25 (or will be in March) and has never pitched above AA ball.

by Al on Dec 14, 2006 4:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Gallagharrrrrr....

...you know where my vote goes.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Dec 14, 2006 4:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Just curious Theo, but

Has there been any info recently as to what Smardzija might do?
My general impression is that Colvin performed better than expectations. Any thoughts on that?

by NO100 on Dec 14, 2006 4:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

samardzija

probably still enters the NFL draft, unfortunately, which is a shame, because I rank him above on his talent alone, but that might be somewhat compromised if he commits to football.

He has a fastball that has touched 99, and reportedly a devastating slider, and he is still remarkably raw due to football.

As for Colvin, Wilken (who is a good scouting director) saw something that he really liked, apparently. Scouts have liked Colvin so far, and he has more power than I thought. Also, he is a Cub type player: toolsy (although not as toolsy as Pie, but he probably has more power).

Baby, you got a stew goin'

by Thelonious on Dec 14, 2006 4:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I've heard the same about...

Samardzija-that he's projected 1st round in the NFL. Too bad for Cubs. He fell to the fifth round because of that. The Cubs had to take a chance after not having 2nd/3rd/4th round picks due to Eyre, Howry and Jacque.

About Colvin, I remember hearing the Cubs took him a round too high, but they really wanted him and didn't want to take a chance on someone else in the first. So they took him high to get the guy they wanted.

On the other hand... I remember Pawelek falling to the Cubs (at 14 or 15???) in 2005 because he had Boras as his agent and many thought there would be signing issues. However, the Cubs had him signed before anyone else in that draft.

All of this is "if I remember correctly" as I have no links and too busy to look it up (but apparently not to voice an opinion).

Skeptical of improvement. I'm waiting for a winner in 2010.

by tyger1147 on Dec 14, 2006 4:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I believe...

... you are correct about all this.

Samardzija is likely to get more money up front in the NFL. But he will have a longer career, and thus likely make more money in the LONG run, if he chooses baseball.

by Al on Dec 14, 2006 4:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We can only hope...

he somehow falls to 32nd in the draft (slow 40 times, maybe) and Dhe Bears pick him up. And he becomes the heir-apparent to Muhammed and plays for the Bears and Cubs.

Or that could happen and both teams get screwed by a slow white receiver who never fully develops as a pitcher.

My new motto: GO CUBS!!! They can't be any worse than last year. <shrugs>

by tyger1147 on Dec 14, 2006 5:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Samardzija

He signed a contract that paid him $1M. However if he chooses baseball over football, that goes up to somewhere in the $7.25M range.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/chicago-cubs_112114177768677294.html

DmL

by dmlichte on Dec 14, 2006 8:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think I read

If he waits a certain amount of time after college he can sign on with the bears as a free agent.

Two sport player? If he was a SP it could be worked out easier than an everyday player.

Happy Holidays goodwill to all. Santa please remember the Cubs come next fall.

by kerrysotherwife on Dec 14, 2006 9:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Samardzija is NFL bound

He is a first round draft pick in the NFL. Hard to argue with that. I'd say his chances of going the NFL route are 99.5%.

Rommel, you magnificent bastard!! I READ YOUR BOOK!!

by BlueMike on Dec 14, 2006 9:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My picks, with criteria

a. Being closer to the majors helps your ranking
b. Projecting for 2007, not lifetime career
c. Significant time on ML roster in 2006 disqualifies you (Ryu OK, Marshall ineligible)

Felix Pie
Donald Veal
Scott Moore
Sean Gallagher
Eric Patterson

Most likely to be traded by mid-season: Ryu
Most likely to have surgery: Pawelek

The call of the Cub fan, c. 1893: "one long, ravaged, derisive yell...a cyclonic whoop!"

by zambranofan on Dec 14, 2006 4:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

"most likely to have surgery"

I definitely agree with pawelek for that. Apparently, when he first got here, his mechanics were just plain ugly, and they are still supposedly not very good. I've heard he's a shoulder injury waiting to happen.

Surprise.

Baby, you got a stew goin'

by Thelonious on Dec 14, 2006 4:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Always good to agree with the boss...

So I think Al will be right about Holdzkom. The Cubs did and do like him. It's very difficult for Rule 5 guys to stick, especially on teams that fancy themselves as contenders. The Royals can hide a kid like Sisco better than the Astros can with Holdzkom.
The thing that is getting overlooked is that I think the Cubs have a solid scouting director in Tim Wilken. He took some chances this year, but his guys performed pretty well.

by Bruce Miles on Dec 14, 2006 5:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I fully expect Holdzkom to return

My cause for complaint was more derived by the fact that the Cubs decided to protect Rocky Cherry over Holdzkom, which doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Yes, Holdzkom is 25ish, yes he's had arm problems, but he has looked good lately, and his ability to keep guys in the park is eye-popping and very noteworthy. It may make no difference in the longrun, but I would like to see the Cubs practice being more penny wise.

I completely agree on Wilken. Some of his later round gambles (like Huesby) might end up paying off big time in the long run. He comes with a great track record. The cost of bringing home grown talent through the minors has not been inflated proportionally to the trend in free agent contracts in recent years, which makes "growing your own" more and more important every year.

Baby, you got a stew goin'

by Thelonious on Dec 14, 2006 5:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I like your idea...

because IF the Royals or IF the Rays or some other crap team HAD taken him, then you couldn't "fully expect" him back.

My new motto: GO CUBS!!! They can't be any worse than last year. <shrugs>

by tyger1147 on Dec 14, 2006 5:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

it makes sense

when you consider that cherry had season-ending finger surgery late in the year. its possible that cherry could have been stashed on the DL all year if left unprotected, and thus been lost.

given holdzkom's inexperience it seems unlikely that he will stick in the majors for a full season.

"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." -- Mark Twain

by circuitclout on Dec 14, 2006 6:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Cherry

is not too unlike Holdkom- guy with decent stuff who is getting a little old to be a top prospect. However, since he was moved to the bullpen his fastball supposedly jumped up to the mid to high 90s and the Cubs brass was thrilled with him. Also, the finger injury was on his non-pitching hand I believe. It was probably a coin flip as to which one to protect.

by BCB ACE on Dec 14, 2006 7:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wilken...

He's got the 3rd overall pick in the draft in 2007 and their third pick in the draft is the 3rd pick in the 2nd round. Whatever talent they lost out on last year can be added this year. It needs to be added!!!

by Maddog on Dec 14, 2006 6:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

this stands to be a really strong draft class

especially at the top. Matt Weiters, Andrew Brackman, David Price etc.

The Cubs picked a good year to suck horribly.

I would love to get weiters. He's a premiere switch hitter AND he throws in the mid 90s. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that he drops to third.

Baby, you got a stew goin'

by Thelonious on Dec 14, 2006 6:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I like Wieters, too.

I think the Royals select him and move him to 1st base. He doesn't project as a catcher due to his body size and lack of agility, but the guy can hit and he is a switch-hitter as you said. Knowing Hendry's pension for pitching, Brackman is probably the guy that falls to the Cubs at number 3. AT least that's based on current rankings and there's an entire amateur season to be played before the draft so things are going to change.

I'm not sure about the talent beyond those guys, but it is a better draft than this past year's draft.

by Maddog on Dec 14, 2006 6:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

luckily

its actually better if the rest of the first round after the cubs choose isn't that strong.

We lose nothing.

I have no information as to how strong the middle and later rounds will be, however.

I agree that Brackman is probably who the cubs will choose (especially if they were choosing today). I probably like wieters (or weiters--I've seen it spelled both ways) the best, but the idea of having a right handed randy johnson (size-wise) doesn't sound too shabby.

Baby, you got a stew goin'

by Thelonious on Dec 14, 2006 7:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

brackman

is exciting, he's got a low arm angle too, coming from a seven footer, this guy seems like he should have immediate success as long as he can keep his release point consistent. I would love it if the Cubs take him.

DON'T TRADE PIE!

by kylejo on Dec 14, 2006 9:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Problem I have

with taking someone that tall is the injury risk. People that tall tend to break down more easily. It's been shown with research over the last 25 years that the type of pitcher that performs best at the MLB level are the athletic types (Roy Oswalt, Tim Hudson, and even Carlos Zambrano is quite athletic).

I'm hoping someone emerges next season that will take the Cubs eyes off of Brackman. I want a college hitter. Wieters will probably be gone, but surely some college hitter is going to step up next year as a junior and be a top 5 talent--that's who the Cubs should take in my opinion.

by Maddog on Dec 14, 2006 10:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

plus...

guys that size have a lot of trouble repeating their delivery which can lead to both control problems and arm/shoulder injuries.

Baby, you got a stew goin'

by Thelonious on Dec 14, 2006 10:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I like

Price, but think he'll be taken before our pick. But yes Wieters is very talented.

by Macy on Dec 15, 2006 12:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think price is projected to be the top pick

and wieters second. Looks like Brackman is our man barring any changes this coming season.

Baby, you got a stew goin'

by Thelonious on Dec 15, 2006 12:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

not completely accurate

our 3rd pick is not the 3rd pick in the 2nd rd, we lost that pick for Soriano

by DartmouthCubsFan on Dec 15, 2006 7:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

For what it's worth...

my top 5 would be:

Donald Veal
Felix Pie
Sean Gallagher
Tyler Colvin
Mark Pawelek

Donald Veal is one of the best lefthanders in the minor leagues and has that unique ability to miss bats AND he doesn't get hit very often either. I can live with walks until a pitcher matures if he misses bats and keeps his opponents batting average well below the league average, which Veal has. I really don't think any player in the Cubs system can be ranked ahead of this guy. His ceiling is higher than any player in the Cubs organization and considering Pawelek is still so far away, Veal is the only pitcher the Cubs have that project to be a legitimate ace.

Felix Pie, as high as the expectations for him are, he'll never live up to them. He'll be an above average CF for a long time and probably rank among the top 10 CF's in the game, but he's never going to be an elite player and his defense, while strong, is highly overrated and so is his speed. He's still an exciting young player and I expect good things from him in the future, but those expecting a superstar are going to be terribly disappointed.

Sean Gallagher is nearly major league ready and has breezed through the farm system while adding some velocity to his fastball. I'd rank him ahead of Pawelek who has a higher ceiling because Gallagher, unless he just falls apart in 2007, will probably make his MLB debut at some point this season.

I'm just not a fan of Eric Patterson. He did exactly what his brother did after making the jump from Low A to AA and was disappointing. He's more patient than Corey, but Corey does make up for the lack of patience with his true power--something Eric Patterson just doesn't have. He's below average defensively despite what I would assume to be great range due to his speed, which is probably his best skill. The Cubs would have been wise to send him to High A last season and instead they rewarded a very mediocre season with a late season call-up to Iowa. He's a future .750 OPS guy at best at the MLB level. For a few years of him being dirt cheap, that's good enough, but it's not good enough once he becomes arbitration eligible.

Colvin and Pawelek still have a very long way to go and the odds are stacked against them in every way possible, but both guys have enormous talent. Pawelek is probably the 2nd best minor league pitcher the Cubs have, but the road ahead is so long so Gallagher gets the nod from me ahead of him in the rankings. Colvin is the typical Cubs prospect--high strikeout totals and low walk totals. They'll move him through the system with great speed because his tools will overshadow his deficiencies until he reaches AA or AAA where he'll either prove to have so much raw talent that he can make it (Pie for example did this this past season) or he'll become a bust.

Of course, I'm not a scout and have only had the pleasure of seeing Felix Pie and that was 3+ years ago and what I've written is based on their stats and comparisons to other players at similar positions, age, and handedness.

It's just hard for me to put much stock into something that shows Pie ahead of Veal because it's abundantly clear that Veal has the potential of being an ace while Pie's potential is probably that of being above league average.

by Maddog on Dec 14, 2006 6:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I agree with everything here...

If I had to put money on the surest bet in our system now, it would be Gallagher as a middle of the rotation pitcher.

I'm really not much of a patterson fan at all. In recent months, I've advocated moving him as part of a deal for a pitcher (while he is currently overvalued), but that seems highly unlikely now.

Baby, you got a stew goin'

by Thelonious on Dec 14, 2006 7:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd trade him too.

We signed DeRosa for 3 years and we have Theriot who is every bit as good as Eric Patterson will ever be so I see no need to continue developing this guy when the benefit is a .750 OPS. He's overvalued now and this is the best time to trade him.

I see Gallagher also as a middle of the rotation starter (a 3 or a 4), but I'd actually put my money on Veal in terms of a sure thing at this point. All of his stats project him to be a top of the rotation starter (at worst a number 2). Then again, if we're talking sure things at this point, I'd probably put Felix Pie as the only sure thing since both Gallagher and Veal aren't quite MLB ready yet...Pie is and I don't care what others say. They simply aren't looking at the available information when they say he's not ready.

by Maddog on Dec 14, 2006 10:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

At the moment, I put Gallagher ahead

of Veal. Veal is a great talent with an above average fastball but lacks a second dominant pitch. While Gallagher lacks one dominant pitch, his repitoire is rather advanced. After his heater, he uses a change, splitter and slider.

I think that Veal will be more dominant at times, but Gallagher has him now on his pitch variation.

Check out my daily baseball blog at MLB-threeSIXTYfive

by TheBeerBaron on Dec 16, 2006 12:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, duh...

and Gallagher has a curve as well.......5 pitch option pitchers are a great luxury.

Check out my daily baseball blog at MLB-threeSIXTYfive

by TheBeerBaron on Dec 16, 2006 12:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

gallagher's curve

is a plus pitch, and has been rated as one of the better curves in the minor leagues, and might be the best currently in the Cubs farm system now that hill has graduated.

Also, his fastball has gained velocity, and has decent movement, but it is nothing special.

As for Veal, I think he also has a pretty solid curve, but it needs some work.

Baby, you got a stew goin'

by Thelonious on Dec 16, 2006 12:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Gallagher has

continued to pick up velocity the past several years. Two years ago his fastball was only about 85 mph. His fastball early this year in Daytona was around 87-88, but at the end of the year he was throwing between 88-90. The four starts I saw were all at the end of the season, and in all four starts he was throwing his fastball at 90mph on a consistent basis.

He's only 20 years old. and is likely to pick up several more MPH as his body continues to develop. If I had to predict, and its just that, a prediction, I'd say at the end of next season he'll probably be throwing between 90-92.

by Macy on Dec 16, 2006 12:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

actually...

scouts say he was consistently throwing 91-93 this year and touching 94. He is more a low 90s pitcher than a high 80s pitcher at this point.

His velocity should improve.

Baby, you got a stew goin'

by Thelonious on Dec 16, 2006 12:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going

solely by what I saw, as opposed to what he consistently did. I've actually never heard scouts say that, so if true that's good. I saw four starts, and in those starts his fastball was around 90-91. I don't know if he'll ever develop a mid-ninety fastball, but if he did he'd be a bad man. His curveball is very good.

by Macy on Dec 16, 2006 1:09 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My top 6

would be:

Veal, literally unhittable at times. Can get away with walks to do his strikeout ability.
Gallagher, I take him over Pie for #2 because

he has far less weaknesses than Pie does.

Pie, very advanced for his age, and is talented.
Huseby, hasn't made a pitch yet as a pro, but has just as good of stuff as Pawelek, but walks far less batters.
Pawelek, all the natural ability, but work ethic must improve.
Colvin, he'll be better than people think. Appears to be a late bloomer.

by Macy on Dec 15, 2006 8:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

veal

can get away with walking guys because he can strike out A-ball hitters. he needs to work on control or he won't have success.

i don't think anyone that young and that far away should be considered an A prospect. too much potential for failure imo.

DEJESUS!!!

by tomas21 on Dec 15, 2006 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Tomas,

when you see Veal pitch, you will change your mind IMO. Wood had control problems when he came up to the bigs, but he was still pretty damn good. I wouldn't be surprised if Veal made the jump from AA to the majors.

by Macy on Dec 15, 2006 11:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Veal...

... does appear, on the surface, to be a special talent. But let's see how he does in Double-A before we anoint him the next franchise savior.

by Al on Dec 16, 2006 4:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Minor League Ball..

... has posted the prospect list.

Top Ten:

Felix Pie
Donald Veal
Eric Patterson
Sean Gallagher
Mark Pawelek
Jeff Samardzija
Tyler Colvin
Jae Kuk Ryu
Scott Moore
Ryan Theriot

His rankings are out

Link.

by VS on Dec 14, 2006 7:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

The rankings

No real surprises.

No A Level prospects but I expected that.
I was surprised that Patterson was on the same level as Pie/Veal. I expected him as a B.
Samardzija just seems like a wasted pick to me. Raw for a college guy? College guys aren't supposed to be raw. If he does decide on baseball, at what age will he make the majors?
Colvin as a B- isn't a surprise. None of the draft projections had him as a #1. I even saw him listed as a 3rd round guy. Still with the Cubs recent history if he can even become an everyday OF that will be an accomplishment.
Sickels is not a Theriot believer.
I would have expected Mateo as maybe a B-. He was rushed but showed potential I thought.
I've been watching these rankings as they have been coming out. Seems like the Cubs are probably middle of the pack in terms of prospects.

The Baseball America list comes out in January for comparison but they don't rank them like this one.

by rlpete on Dec 14, 2006 8:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

The one thing that I definitely disagree...

with on his rankings, is I think Veal is definitely an A-. His BAA is fantastic, and he has shown great skill at missing bats. The only thing keeping him from being a top pitching prospect throughout the minor leagues , IMO, is the walk rate.

Baby, you got a stew goin'

by Thelonious on Dec 14, 2006 8:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That's the point

He's a B+ because of the walk rate and Sickels says that is the issue. If he improves that, he's an A level.

by rlpete on Dec 14, 2006 8:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I still disagree

I think he's an A- now, and would be a solid A if he lowered the walkrate.

Baby, you got a stew goin'

by Thelonious on Dec 14, 2006 8:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed!

He led ALL minor league pitchers in opponents batting average and pitchers tend to show more control as they mature. Even with the walks the guy flat out dominated. He's one of the 4 or 5 best left handed starters in the minor leagues right now. And he's far and away the best Cubs prospect in my opinion. Definitely an A-.

by Maddog on Dec 14, 2006 10:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Maddog. Even with his walks he still dominated hitters rather easily. IMO, he's definietly a A prospect.

by Macy on Dec 15, 2006 11:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty revealing, and sad

when Ryan Theriot, Jae Ryu and Scott Moore make the top 10 rankings. The Cub minor league system is in lousy shape. Jim Hendry has had nearly 10 years (starting with his initial roles within the organization) to change the equation. So far, things have gone backwards under his watch. The scouting clearly sucks. And the minor league instruction (TO INCLUDE PITCHING MECHANICS AND HITTING FUNDAMENTALS) is an absolute joke.

Rommel, you magnificent bastard!! I READ YOUR BOOK!!

by BlueMike on Dec 14, 2006 9:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

look at sickels's overviews of the other system

you are being overly pessimistic. The Cubs system is more middling than bottom of the barrel. There are other systems that don't turn out close to the quantity of decent to solid pitchers we have brought up in recent years.

Baby, you got a stew goin'

by Thelonious on Dec 14, 2006 10:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Two things

Last quality everyday major league positional player -- Mark Grace, 1988
The plethora of devastating injuries to "power arms" within the Cub system

Result? Continued bearish opinion of the Cub farm system. Oh for the days of Dallas Green.

Rommel, you magnificent bastard!! I READ YOUR BOOK!!

by BlueMike on Dec 14, 2006 10:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

what we've done in the past

has absolutely nothing to do with what is happening now and in the future in our system.

All that matters is that if you compare the top 10 in our system against the rest of baseball, we fall closer to the middle to the end. We don't have a great system, true, but I'm glad we aren't the padres, or orioles etc.

Baby, you got a stew goin'

by Thelonious on Dec 14, 2006 10:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

Lets see what Wilken can do, lets see his results. Hey we are all disappointed on the performance of some of these players. That era is over, I am anxious to see what Wilken can do.

Throw out your Gold Teeth and see how they Roll

by Johnny Callison was a Cub on Dec 14, 2006 11:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sickles

There has been something going on between Sickles and Wilken for yrs. Just check back to Wilkens days at Toronto, lots of players that Wilken was responsible for Sickles was tough on such as Rios, Felipe Lopez and Mike Young, Sickles had also mentioned that Wilken liked too many tall pitchers in another article when Wilken was with the Jays. So the Colvin grading by Sickles doesnt really come as a suprise!

by SlamDog on Dec 16, 2006 8:19 AM CST reply actions 0 recs