50-50 chance, according to Jerry Crasnick at ESPN.com:For what it's worth, the Cubs have some history with negotiating long-term deals before players enter their "walk" year. They've done it with Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Kerry Wood.
"We certainly have interest in keeping Carlos in Chicago," Cubs GM Jim Hendry said. "That's always been something he's expressed to me that he wants to do. We'll sit down and have conversations with his representatives before and during spring training, and pursue it with our normal diligence."