Negative VORP (An unfinished look)
I'm not sure what this means yet and I meant to point it out a couple days ago as I was finally getting started researching team negative VORP. I've only got 2005 and 2006 done so far so it's going to be a few days yet until I have much to say about it, but one thing jumped out at me as I was tallying the team negative VORPs.
In Lou Piniella's final year in Tampa Bay (2005) his team, offensively (minus pitchers), produced negative VORP from 8 players, which is below average (not sure how much though yet) for a total negative VORP of -11.9; almost half of which came from catcher, Pete Laforest.
Also, 9.6% of the team's plate appearances were taken by people (non-pitchers) who produced a negative VORP. This number is so far below average it's remarkable for a team that wasn't very good.
Only two teams in all of baseball in 2005 gave a lower percentage of plate appearances to guys who produced negative VORP (Boston was under 4% and Atlanta was 9.5%). I'm not yet sure of the average, but I think it's in the low 20s and several teams were in the 30s.
The -11.9 offensive VORP the team had was the lowest negative VORP produced in 2005.
I hope this is a sign of what we can expect from Piniella, but i'll let you know as I get more information. Something tells me this is an outlier and that managing has little to do with team VORP.
For what it's worth, in 2006 (offensively), the D-Rays (Piniella's first season away from managing them) allowed a whopping 46.3% of their plate appearances to be taken by 15 players who produced a negative VORP at the plate for a combined total of -96.2 VORP (the most in baseball; the Cubs had the 2nd most).
So based on this minimal amount of information, perhaps Piniella doesn't stand for people who aren't producing at the plate. If so, and i'll have more information by the end of this week, then we can probably add 3-4 wins simply because of the managerial change the Cubs made this offseason.
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I changed the title of this diary...
by Al on Dec 25, 2006 5:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
nice diary md...
by theprognosticator on Dec 25, 2006 11:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
this is interesting
How many Negative VORP players do you expect to see ample playing time with the Cubs in '07 based on history? I clearly don't see any Perez' or LaForest's in Chicago.
Can you view it by league? I wonder if the NL is different thatn the AL?
by socalbob on Dec 26, 2006 11:00 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
socalbob...
I've seen some interesting things just getting 2003-2006 done and, to be honest, there doesn't appear to be a great correlation between negative VORP and Wins. At least not for the bulk of the teams. The teams that have the worst negative VORP each season are pretty much going to be the worst so there is some correlation, but not as much as I'd hoped to find anyway.
There shouldn't be much difference between the leagues though. Replacement players are defined as the 20% of the players who played the least at each specific position. Over a long period of time, all teams are going to have roughly 20% of their innings and at-bats given to below replacement level players and, I'd assume, have a similar amount of negative VORP. That would certainly be true if we looked at 50 years worth of data, but over 5 or 7 years we should see some interesting information.
For example, during the 2003-06 years I have completed right now, there are three teams in baseball that clearly do pay attention to negative VORP. Two of the teams you could probably guess--Oakland and Boston. The third team suprised me--Milwaukee. These 3 teams in this span (granted, not much data, but the advanced statistics era has taken hold during this span also) have shown the ability to reduce negative production beyond what should be expected. Interestingly, all 3 of these teams are quite different.
Boston spends a lot of money while Oakland spends about league average and Milwaukee is generally in the bottom third.
by Maddog on Dec 26, 2006 12:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Maddog
Or, I could just learn on my own, I guess. But I love hearing your take on these things.
by cubbiejulie on Dec 26, 2006 12:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
And...
Thanks.
by tyger1147 on Dec 26, 2006 1:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My blog...
by Maddog on Dec 26, 2006 1:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It is indeed...
by Al on Dec 26, 2006 1:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Julie...
As for what stats are my favorite...I don't know. I don't really have a favorite. I can say that I prefer Baseball Prospectus' stats (WARP, VORP, etc) over Win Shares and other similar stats, but that's only because I have more knowledge about BP's stats. I think if you're going to do a comparison between two players who play the same position, Batting Runs Above Replacement (BRAR) and Fielding Runs Above Replacement (FRAR) is a pretty good way to do it. It's rather simple and it gives us a pretty good idea about each player's value offensively and defensively (VORP doesn't consider defense). We always have to remember what are rate stats and what are counting stats (batting average is a rate stat and RBIs are a counting stat for example). Rate stats don't consider playing time so they may be the better stat to use from time to time. If we're comparing two players to league average (or replacement level), VORP is probably the way we'd want to do that, or VORPr (which is just VORP Rate).
And we also have to remember that all stats are fallible and the more we have the less flaws there will be in predicting future performance (that is the ultimate goal of stats, after all...along with the historical record they create). Now, not all stats are equally flawed though. Ideally, we want stats to represent production, which is either runs created or runs prevented. The less a stat has to do with one of those two things, the more flawed it is. For example, an error does indeed have an impact on runs scored or runs prevented (both actually), but not all players get an error for the same play because of a player's range. It's distinctly possible that a SS with little range could make as few as 8 or 10 errors and be considered by some to be the superior defensive SS although a SS with superior range who makes 12-15 errors is almost certainly the better defender because he has a greater impact on runs prevented (he's turning more balls hit near him into outs) than the other player. An error is a terribly flawed stat. It tells us very little about the impact that player has had on what is important--runs.
by Maddog on Dec 26, 2006 2:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
VORP is really two stats...
Also, I know VORP's sister stat, Wins Above Replacement Level, factors in defense. Dunno why they haven't extended that to VORP (probably for backwards compatability.)
by cwyers on Dec 26, 2006 5:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah.
by Maddog on Dec 26, 2006 7:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with defense is...
There's a variety of factors that can much more severely effect Aramis' performance as a defender. If you put him next to a shortstop with a lot of range, then you're making Aramis look a lot better because the shortstop is taking a lot of balls that he would be expected to field when put next to a lesser shortstop. By the same token, if you get a first baseman that is very good at getting balls out of the dirt or high in the air and turning them into outs, then you eliminate a lot of his throwing errors. (We have one of those first basemen, thankfully.) Other teammates don't have nearly as big an effect on offense, outside of the counting stats (RBIs and Runs Scored).
And that doesn't even begin to discuss catchers.
by cwyers on Dec 27, 2006 12:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
it's even more difficult
In addition to what you wrote, there is hardly a way to account for positioning of a player before the pitch. A groundball hit 1 step to the left of 2B and fielded by the shortstop could have various range implications. And that groundball is not hit at the same speed with the same number of hops. Some guy makes it look routine and another guy dives to make the play. But do we know they both were positioned in the same spot pre-pitch? Did they both get the same jump off the bat? Did one guy react late and have to dive seemingly making a great play or did the other guy get a great jump and make it routine? How often do we see an OF make a lousy jump break the wrong way and end up with a diving catch whereas the truly great OF'ers make hard plays so easy?
Some guys look great because the pitcher can pitch to how the fielder is positioned. While other pitching staffs cannot do it.
If someone can ever combine all the factors to measure a fielder leveling out all factors, then that will be a fantastic piece of research to read.
by socalbob on Dec 27, 2006 9:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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