New Face of the $100 Bill (Big Z)
No one needs to be reminded that Zito's new contract has broken records, this I know. With this, I'd be curious to see how much people think Zambrano will rack up next year. He has arguable been one of the most consistent pitchers within the last few years, he's extremely young and built like a tank. I personally think Hendry was dumb not to offer him something already (because as we all see the price of pitchers has experienced inflation worse then gas prices). Now I'm sure Carlos is licking his chops to cash in whenever he can. As a side note, the genuine passion Zambrano has for the game is contagious and I think he'd pitch for free if it came down to it, but money is money. And we all know the more other people have (see Zito, Meche, etc.), the more Big Z is ultimately going to have, especially when you're better then everyone else now wiping their asses with $100 bills. MY GUESS: AT LEAST 7 YEARS, AT LEAST 150 MILLION
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15 comments
Comments
Re: Piniella
by Randy on Dec 30, 2006 5:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
TRAMMELL!
by Faith plus 1 on Dec 30, 2006 10:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
amen brother...
by theprognosticator on Dec 31, 2006 2:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
7 years, $140M
by nextyearcub on Dec 30, 2006 3:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
$140 million?
Well, anyway, I'm not really his agent. But I imagine the Cubs might hear something like that if they try for a "discount."
by danimal15 on Dec 30, 2006 4:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Never know
by nextyearcub on Dec 30, 2006 4:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Alright then
by lilkimmer77 on Dec 30, 2006 4:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
$140-$150 million........
by PriorandAramisfan23 on Dec 30, 2006 5:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
What do we think happens...
If it doesn't show, I sort of agree with the Sox GM that pitchers aren't worth long contracts because there's too much of an injury risk.
It's really funny to see the other pitchers on the list of most expensive pitcher contracts ever. All of them have been duds...
by 26.2cubfan on Dec 30, 2006 7:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Just to clarify
by danimal15 on Dec 30, 2006 10:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Pitcher Abuse Points...
The sum-up is this: the idea that pitch counts in an outing have an effect on injury potential, not pitch counts over a season per se. Points are awarded for pitches beyond, say, 90-100. Each pitch beyond 100 is worth more points than the pitch preceeding it.
Now, we have two poster boys for PAP on the roster already -- Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. So it's not something I'm ready to dismiss out of hand.
That said, not all pitchers are created equal as far as PAP are concerned. They're particularly relevant for young pitchers -- once someone has developed experience, they're less relevant. Body type is also a factor -- guys built like Zambrano seem to be less injury prone than wiry guys like, say, Rich Hill.
And, to answer the question, Zambrano was second in PAP in 2006, behind Livian Hernandez. Same in '05. (Prior was third in '05, which was the first hint I had the page had changed.) He was third in '04... Livian Hernandez still led, Jason Schmidt was second.
In '03 Zambrano was 11th, finally taking him out of the top three -- Javier Vasquez was first, followed by Kerry Wood, Livian Hernandez, and Mark Prior, in that order.
So what can we tell from all of this?
- Livian Hernandez is apparently indestructable. Or something. So high PAP isn't a guarantee of death.
- Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are apparently not indestructable.
- Carlos's workload is probably a concern for someone pondering the posibility of investing a year's worth of GDP for the Kingdom of Tonga in a single starting pitcher over seven years.
by cwyers on Dec 31, 2006 9:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good research
I wish pitch count statistics had been kept before 1988. I'm willing to bet a long-term study of PAP would show no correlation between high PAP and injury rates. Some pitchers are just fated to be injured. Others, like Zambrano and Hernandez (or like Bert Blyleven, who pitched 325 innings with 25 complete games in 1973 as a 22-year old and went on to win nearly 300 major league games), are simply immune to injuries caused by throwing a ball thousands of times.
by danimal15 on Dec 31, 2006 1:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, while Leviathan Hernandez...
As I think my esteemed colleague maddog pointed out some time ago, Hernandez is nowhere near the same pitcher he was once before, and it stands to reason that if he hadn't been so abused, he might be a much better pitcher than he currently is.
Will that happen to Big Z? Hard to say for sure, but it is a decent bet that his decline will be sharper and much sooner if he continues to be one of the top names in PAP, which says to me that any deal over 4 years for him could very easily be a horrible decision.
by theprognosticator on Dec 31, 2006 2:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Z
by NOMAR on Dec 31, 2006 5:22 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

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