New Face of the $100 Bill (Big Z)

by lilkimmer77 on Dec 30, 2006 1:52 PM CST

No one needs to be reminded that Zito's new contract has broken records, this I know. With this, I'd be curious to see how much people think Zambrano will rack up next year. He has arguable been one of the most consistent pitchers within the last few years, he's extremely young and built like a tank. I personally think Hendry was dumb not to offer him something already (because as we all see the price of pitchers has experienced inflation worse then gas prices). Now I'm sure Carlos is licking his chops to cash in whenever he can. As a side note, the genuine passion Zambrano has for the game is contagious and I think he'd pitch for free if it came down to it, but money is money. And we all know the more other people have (see Zito, Meche, etc.), the more Big Z is ultimately going to have, especially when you're better then everyone else now wiping their asses with $100 bills. MY GUESS: AT LEAST 7 YEARS, AT LEAST 150 MILLION

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Dec 30, 2006 2:13 PM CST reply actions

Re: Piniella

Ya know at first I would see the blank piniella responses and kind of think, "wtf". But the more I see it, the funnier it gets. Seriously, I'm rolling here. :)

by Randy on Dec 30, 2006 5:19 PM CST up reply actions

TRAMMELL!

good to be back

TRAMMELL!

by Faith plus 1 on Dec 30, 2006 10:58 PM CST up reply actions

amen brother...

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Dec 31, 2006 2:26 PM CST up reply actions

7 years, $140M

Cubs get a very "minor" discount.

I very excite about this upcoming season! Jenqui!

by nextyearcub on Dec 30, 2006 3:27 PM CST reply actions

$140 million?

I'm Zambrano's agent, and I'm outraged that you'd insult him with such a lowball offer! We're calling up Steinbrenner!

Well, anyway, I'm not really his agent. But I imagine the Cubs might hear something like that if they try for a "discount."

by danimal15 on Dec 30, 2006 4:03 PM CST reply actions

Never know

That's still a crapload of $$, plus Z likes Chicago and swears by Rothschild, unlike many on BCB.

I very excite about this upcoming season! Jenqui!

by nextyearcub on Dec 30, 2006 4:24 PM CST up reply actions

Alright then

$200 million dollar contract?? I guess I'm still getting used to the fact that pitchers are getting ridiculously overpaid for the reason that we are now in a pitcher's era. Meaning they're considered the most important figures in the sport and even some half-ass talent is bound to make millions. Who knows. What I do know for sure is that there will be plenty of teams interested in our ace (Yankees) and that there's gonna have to be yet another record contract from Hendry if we are to keep the stud we have all come to know as Z. I swear if I could throw two pitches over the plate I'd be getting paid 30 million right now. 40 if I were a lefty.

by lilkimmer77 on Dec 30, 2006 4:46 PM CST reply actions

$140-$150 million........

you might as well trade him for that price. Zambrano is good but that's just stupid money to tie up in a pitcher. Chris Carpenter isn't making that much, neither is Roy Oswalt or Johan Santana.

RAMIREZ!! PRIOR!! Get MANNY!!!!

by PriorandAramisfan23 on Dec 30, 2006 5:54 PM CST reply actions

What do we think happens...

...to Z's value if he gets hurt at any point this season? I know he's had a few odd injuries, but been able to make most of his starts anyway. He has also been the most utilized pitcher in the Cubs system. I imagine if someone were to look at his Pitcher Abuse Points (anyone have the 07 Bill James book?) he'd be pretty high up there. I'm not predictcing he'll get hit, and I certainly hope he stays healthy all season, but does his contract value drop if he misses significant time? Additionally, does this make him more likely to pitch through minor injuries (and risk major ones) this coming season?

If it doesn't show, I sort of agree with the Sox GM that pitchers aren't worth long contracts because there's too much of an injury risk.

It's really funny to see the other pitchers on the list of most expensive pitcher contracts ever. All of them have been duds...

MURTON!!! - just trying to help his karma so we keep him.

by 26.2cubfan on Dec 30, 2006 7:54 PM CST reply actions

Just to clarify

Pitcher Abuse Points isn't a Bill James concept, and I don't know if he keeps track of it in his books. Indeed, I have a Bill James book in which he has a study that basically finds that pitch counts are meaningless in trying to determine which pitcher gets injured. PAP was invented by some other guys, whose books I must admit I have never read, though I understand the concept of PAP.

by danimal15 on Dec 30, 2006 10:56 PM CST up reply actions

Pitcher Abuse Points...

...were created by the guys at Baseball Prospectus (as so many baseball stats are, it seems). The original study may or not be free, I can't tell.

The sum-up is this: the idea that pitch counts in an outing have an effect on injury potential, not pitch counts over a season per se. Points are awarded for pitches beyond, say, 90-100. Each pitch beyond 100 is worth more points than the pitch preceeding it.

Now, we have two poster boys for PAP on the roster already -- Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. So it's not something I'm ready to dismiss out of hand.

That said, not all pitchers are created equal as far as PAP are concerned. They're particularly relevant for young pitchers -- once someone has developed experience, they're less relevant. Body type is also a factor -- guys built like Zambrano seem to be less injury prone than wiry guys like, say, Rich Hill.

And, to answer the question, Zambrano was second in PAP in 2006, behind Livian Hernandez. Same in '05. (Prior was third in '05, which was the first hint I had the page had changed.) He was third in '04... Livian Hernandez still led, Jason Schmidt was second.

In '03 Zambrano was 11th, finally taking him out of the top three -- Javier Vasquez was first, followed by Kerry Wood, Livian Hernandez, and Mark Prior, in that order.

So what can we tell from all of this?

Livian Hernandez is apparently indestructable. Or something. So high PAP isn't a guarantee of death.
Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are apparently not indestructable.
Carlos's workload is probably a concern for someone pondering the posibility of investing a year's worth of GDP for the Kingdom of Tonga in a single starting pitcher over seven years.

by cwyers on Dec 31, 2006 9:30 AM CST up reply actions

Good research

Thanks.

I wish pitch count statistics had been kept before 1988. I'm willing to bet a long-term study of PAP would show no correlation between high PAP and injury rates. Some pitchers are just fated to be injured. Others, like Zambrano and Hernandez (or like Bert Blyleven, who pitched 325 innings with 25 complete games in 1973 as a 22-year old and went on to win nearly 300 major league games), are simply immune to injuries caused by throwing a ball thousands of times.

by danimal15 on Dec 31, 2006 1:47 PM CST up reply actions

Yes, while Leviathan Hernandez...

...has proven durable, you can't say he has maintained the same success that he enjoyed earlier in his career.

As I think my esteemed colleague maddog pointed out some time ago, Hernandez is nowhere near the same pitcher he was once before, and it stands to reason that if he hadn't been so abused, he might be a much better pitcher than he currently is.

Will that happen to Big Z? Hard to say for sure, but it is a decent bet that his decline will be sharper and much sooner if he continues to be one of the top names in PAP, which says to me that any deal over 4 years for him could very easily be a horrible decision.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Dec 31, 2006 2:29 PM CST up reply actions

Z

i think carlos will get 15 mill a year for sure.maybe more. the giants were just stupid to pay 18 mill for zito.that,s called right place right time.he,s not that good

by NOMAR on Dec 31, 2006 5:22 AM CST reply actions