Community Projection: Mark Prior

by Al Yellon on Feb 8, 2006 2:28 PM CST in Community Projections

photo: art.com

The poll was pretty clear-cut; Prior got 31% of the vote to Greg Maddux' 21%, as to who all of you wanted to see as the next projection subject.

Categories: G, IP, H, BB, SO, W-L, ERA (assume, again, that all Prior's appearances will be starts). You can add WHIP if you like.

UPDATE [2006-2-10 14:59:31 by Al]: Prior's projected numbers:

G-31; IP-195; H-150; BB-59; SO-230; W-18; L-7; ERA-2.86; WHIP-1.25

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Mark Prior Projection

G....26
IP...158
H....94
BB...42
SO...192
W-L..15-5
ERA...3.20

I still think Prior will miss some starts this year, like he has every year but I think he'll pitch better than he did last year with fewer walks and higher K's and I took into consideration that since the Cubs should have a better bullpen, hopefully he won't go longer into games like he has the last couple, and cuz of that I factored in more decisions, but fewer games until he proves he's durable enough to finish a full season healthy.

by escapegoat on Feb 8, 2006 2:58 PM CST reply actions

WOO!

Thank you Al, I was waiting for this!

G....29
GS...29
CG...2
IP...191
H....87
HR...16
BB...38
SO...201
W-L..17-7
ERA...2.60

this is way too optimistic, it's more of a best case scenario I'm sure gaius will be along to give the worst soon.

2006 -- AC036097 -- Eamus Catuli!

by priorpwnz on Feb 8, 2006 3:35 PM CST reply actions

better yet

G-31
GS-31
CG-4
IP-203
H-96
HR-13
BB-63
SO-216
W-L 19-9
ERA 2.93

Prior is going to have his best year as a pro...I really believe this..he is going to finally come out of spring training healthy and ready to go. Go Cubs!!

I'd rather look at the glass half full, rather than half empty!!

by bolson1076 on Feb 8, 2006 4:42 PM CST up reply actions

Great year for Prior

G...31
CG...3
IP...205
H...145
BB...63
SO...217
W-L...19-5
ERA...2.43

"we got motherf'in snakes on our motherf'in plane!" -Samual L. Jackson

by DTJchris on Feb 8, 2006 4:23 PM CST reply actions

For once...

... I'm going to be a little less optimistic. I think he'll pitch all year, but not be quite that good:

G: 33
IP: 209
H: 182
BB: 67
SO: 227
W-L: 17-11
ERA: 3.16

by Al Yellon on Feb 8, 2006 4:36 PM CST reply actions

That...

is still pretty good. If he's going 2 pitch like that, it would be awesome. I just want to watch him pitch.

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes. Time to sPaRkLe Jimmy!

by sparkles721 on Feb 8, 2006 4:57 PM CST up reply actions

just a thought

not sure if he would be able to tally that many decisions in 33 starts. i'm thinking more 17-6

by junbun on Feb 8, 2006 9:08 PM CST up reply actions

Big Time Year

I think if he is healthy then we are finally going to see him pitch like he should have for the last two years- I dont want to do the math to make sure my numbers are exaclty right so ill go general here

g: 32
IP: over 200
W- 20-
L- 6
Era- Low 3's High 2's

Big Year from Prior

KSUCubbie

by ksucubbie on Feb 8, 2006 4:42 PM CST reply actions

If there is...

... any way you could be more specific, that'd help when the numbers are totalled up.

Thanks.

by Al Yellon on Feb 8, 2006 4:43 PM CST up reply actions

ok ok..

Games- 32
Innings Pitched- 203
Hits- 170
BB- 65
SO- 225
Wins- 20
Losses 6
Era- 2.83

There ya go
if it doesnt all add up
well sorry

KSUCubbie

by ksucubbie on Feb 8, 2006 4:52 PM CST up reply actions

Thanks....

I do appreciate the added numbers. It makes it easier to calculate.

by Imtrejo on Feb 8, 2006 5:34 PM CST up reply actions

Overall, a good comeback!

G: 29
GS: 29
CG: 3
IP: 197
H: 124
HR: 19
BB: 45
SO: 202
W-L: 16-9
ERA: 3.14

Much like with Carlos, 20 wins might have been attainable with a better offense behind him. He should rebound quite well in 2006!

"Bite my shiny metal ass!" -- Bender Bending Rodriguez

by The Jade Scorpion on Feb 8, 2006 5:34 PM CST reply actions

Prior is for Real

Unlike Mr. Injury himself, Kerry Wood, Prior's injuries have been less indicative of him being injury prone throughout his career. When truly healthy he has pitched pretty much as he was expected to. This year he is coming to camp healthy and barring another freak injury should be able to stay healthy all year and put up great numbers.

Games: 32
Innings: 210
Hits: 179
Walks: 52
WHIP: 1.10
Strikeouts: 250
ERA: 2.85
W/L: 18-9

W/L record is the most difficult to project. I don't think that Cubs starters will have too many no decisions due to blown leads...thanks to an improved bullpen. However, the lineup may not score enough runs to get Prior or Zambrano to 20 wins.

by CUBSFANONE on Feb 8, 2006 6:37 PM CST reply actions

here it goes

G: 33
IP: 217.2
H: 184
BB: 58
SO: 237
W-L: 19-7
ERA: 2.49

CY YOUNG WINNER

by socalbob on Feb 8, 2006 6:38 PM CST reply actions

if

he does any of these predictions, i'd be very happy.

and did anyone catch hendry on the radio saying he thinks wood might now be ready for opening day? i caught the tail end of it, so i couldn't give the details, but that would be great news. starting the season with prior-z-wood-maddux-williams would be exciting.

by tomas21 on Feb 8, 2006 8:23 PM CST reply actions

Wood.

If true, that is great news abotu Wood. Now I only hope he can drive in runs with the bat so he can get some well-deserved wins.

"Bite my shiny metal ass!" -- Bender Bending Rodriguez

by The Jade Scorpion on Feb 8, 2006 8:31 PM CST up reply actions

Good Lord

After viewing the Prior projections I would have to ask, "Is there any blue Kool Aid left in the world or did you guys drink it all?"

I guess the 45 pitch first innings are not as close as they appear in the rear view mirror. I hope you're all right. I always wondered what the Cub staff would be like with Juan Marichal as the number two. If Prior has the year you're all predicting, I guess we'll find out.

by TR on Feb 8, 2006 8:33 PM CST reply actions

No...

there is still plenty of blue Kool Aid left. When I became a Cub fan, a lifetime supply landed from the sky on my front door. I have tons of Kool Aid, and I'm willing to share! :)

But seriously, I want Prior to get rid of the high pitch counts. He's a strikeout guy, but he needs to throw less pitches, and I think he will find a way to do so.

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes. Time to sPaRkLe Jimmy!

by sparkles721 on Feb 8, 2006 10:13 PM CST up reply actions

just asking

was his 2003 season a mirage then? I remember him being excellent. I expect him to return to that form.

by socalbob on Feb 9, 2006 2:06 PM CST up reply actions

Good News on Wood

"If true, that is great news about Wood. Now I only hope he can drive in runs with the bat so he can get some well-deserved wins."

Wood has definitely been a victim of the Cubs' weak run support and bad bullpens in the past and no doubt lost some Ws because of it. But he's just as much to blame for hitting 100 pitches in the 6th inning over and over and then turning it over to the clown car of a bullpen for 2 or 3 innings at a time. Learn to pitch and go deeper into games, Kerry. Then you won't have to worry about others ruining what you start. How many one run games did Jenkins, Gibson and Clemens win?

by TR on Feb 8, 2006 8:44 PM CST reply actions

yeah...

the kool-aid is pretty strong. i mean, its cool to be optimistic.. but you guys think he's going to be sandy koufax all of a sudden... "BIG YEAR" 32 starts? i'll believe it when i see it. 20 wins and an ERA of mid 2? i would love it.

ill post my prediction a little later

by junbun on Feb 8, 2006 9:03 PM CST reply actions

Prediction

Prior:
G:32
H:188
BB:79
W-L:21-6
ERA:2.91
SO:League leading(280)

by douglaspierrehertzner on Feb 8, 2006 9:16 PM CST reply actions

If you could...

predict innings pitched.

by Imtrejo on Feb 9, 2006 1:03 PM CST up reply actions

Prediction

Prior:

G: 33
H: 165
BB: 62
W-L: 22-5
ERA: 3.01
SO: 285

CY Young

by miamicanes on Feb 9, 2006 9:58 AM CST reply actions

If you could...

make a guess at innings pitched.

by Imtrejo on Feb 9, 2006 1:01 PM CST up reply actions

Chuck's Prediction

GS    25
CG    1
SHO    0
IP    152
H    134
R    64
ER    60
HR    20
BB    53
SO    175
HBP    4
WP    4
BK    1
ERA    3.58

I am refraining from a win-loss prediction since a pitcher has nearly no control over this. He could go 13-3 with this line, or he could go 6-10.

Chuck

by chasfh on Feb 9, 2006 12:56 PM CST reply actions

Good year

G: 31
IP: 201
H: 137
BB: 43
SO: 259
W: 19
L: 6
ERA: 2.74

by Perkins on Feb 9, 2006 1:28 PM CST reply actions

my guesses

G: 31
IP: 208
H: 177
BB: 68
SO: 212
W: 17
L: 8
ERA: 2.97

by SleepyLaBeef on Feb 9, 2006 1:50 PM CST reply actions

'03 wasn't a mirage

but he hasn't had anywhere near the control he had that year since. In '05 he pitched almost 50 less innings than in '03 but walked 9 more batters - 59-50. Blame him or Dusty or whomever you want for the problem but his high pitch counts are killing him. I hope he turns it around too, but right now I have no reason to believe that's about to happen.

by TR on Feb 9, 2006 3:58 PM CST reply actions

Freak injuries

Last year he broke a bone in his pitching elbow because of a line drive plus his spring training never really happened. So all year long he did not have the oppurtunity to get into the groove of things. This year, knock on wood, hopefully won't have anything like that happen.

"we got motherf'in snakes on our motherf'in plane!" -Samual L. Jackson

by DTJchris on Feb 9, 2006 5:48 PM CST up reply actions