just a thought out of the blue..

by nick3308 on Apr 10, 2006 7:34 PM CDT Comment 52 comments

Everyone knows how Kerry Wood has been injury prone pretty much his whole career..and many of us here at BCB dont think hes worth it.

Greg Maddux is getting older..and this is I believe his 3rd year with the cubs since rejoining with the club..which is also an option year if im not mistaken.

Both of these guys have a pretty hefty salary for 2006. With Wood's at about $9.5M and Maddux at around $9M.

I was just thinking about this, what is the chance..the Cubs DO NOT resign either of these guys, and take a chance at Barry Zito...considering he is not resigned or traded and signed by the end of the year?..Just wondering what everyone elses thoughts were on this.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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i will pass

Well Folks . I think barry will be the beneficiary of a large absence of top pitching in the off-season...

I would post all ofthe pitchers that are FA's in 06' 07' but it would be a waste of space..

The Cubs will need 1-2 starters this off-season and its plum scary to think who they might go after..

Jason Marquis..could be an option..

Jason Schmidt..if he can prove he is healthy might be a guy...

Trading for a SP seems to be the way to go or hoping one or two of your young pitchers develops into a capable SP.

by cubsfan2883 on Apr 10, 2006 7:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

They may not

need 1-2 starters depending on how some of the younger guys, like Marshall and Guzman, develop this year. Depending on how Maddux does this year, I wouldn't mind seeing him re-signed for a one or two year deal at a lower cost than $9m a year. As for Wood, assuming he stays healthy this year, I'd re-sign him at a reduced cost as he could easily move into the bullpen when he's no longer able to start.

The bidding war for Schmidt, Zito, Mulder, etc. will most likely be very expensive. I wouldn't mind seeing the Cubs pursue the first two as long as they don't blow the bank. I'll pass on Jason Marquis, thanks.

by The Boar on Apr 11, 2006 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not re-signing Maddux and Wood

May be a smart idea (Maddux may well just retire) but I'm afraid tossing tons of money at Barry Zito probably isn't the answer. As much as I like the guy, he's really just a good innings-eater with a lot of miles on him. I'd take him if we could get him cheap (or even reasonable) but we all know that isn't going to happen once the Yankees and Red Sox start bidding on him.

Better suggestion comes from Ken Rosenthal over at Fox Sports: Why not trade Felix Pie to get Dontrelle Willis back? Willis is looking at a 8 or 9 million dollar contract in arbitration next season and the Marlins may not want to pay that. And anyone who picks up Willis has him for the next three seasons (including this one) before he becomes a free agent. Younger, cheaper and better than Zito.

Baseball can be summed up in one word--you never know--Joaquin Andujar

by Josh77 on Apr 10, 2006 8:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Pie and Hill for Dontrelle?

I'd do it.

by deansanta on Apr 10, 2006 9:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not so fast

Pie had two triples last night and has already hit a grand slam tonight. An every day player of that caliber is hard to find. Buy Willis but not with Pie.

by mrcubsfan on Apr 10, 2006 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

hells

yeah

KSUCubbie

by ksucubbie on Apr 10, 2006 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Red Sox

are reportedly putting together a package for Dontrelle that starts with Jon Lester. Throw in a few more of their top tier prospects, and I doubt the Cubs can match it. If a major star like the D-Train would become available (even better than Beckett), there are several teams that could top anything the Cubs could offer.

by The Boar on Apr 11, 2006 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

not to impugn your thoughts

as i'd jump at pie-and-more-for-willis (though i'd suggest that might be too little). but zito is not "just an innings-eater", though he is certainly that too.

look at his five-year line in the context of others.

79-49, 3.56 era, 1.23 whip in 1116 ip.

he'd be the second-best pitcher on the cubs staff.

by gaius marius on Apr 11, 2006 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i

know zito is a great pitcher and would be more than welcome but at what cost? 15 mill? 14 ? its too much for one guy- and im with you Pie for Willis would never happen but if Florida wanted that deal well then you have to pull the trigger Pie MIGHT be awesome Willis is a 20 game winner

KSUCubbie

by ksucubbie on Apr 11, 2006 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's what pitching costs

people balked at $12mm for millwood. they balked at $8mm for weaver. they balk at $13-15mm for zito.

fine. get five glendon rusches and set an nl record for runs allowed. sure will be cheap. :)

the cubs don't have a lot of choices. a 2007 rotation of z, mark prior's mortal remains, rusch, williams, marshall and guzman is not going to be a winner. and then prior and z start flirting with free agency.

this team just tied up $13mm a year in lee and will hopefully tie up that or more in aramis. it's certainly not out of bounds to spend that much on a player -- ability costs money.

so it becomes a question of what the cubs need. they need help in the pitching staff -- even if marshall and guzman actually are big league pitchers, the team needs help to be a winner.

by gaius marius on Apr 11, 2006 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

no

thats what overpriced pitching costs

you can still find Paul Bryd's and Bronson Arroyo type deals- Millwood and Zito are Ace's- Elite starters that command big money from teams desperate for an Ace ex Rangers and next year the Yankees

Weaver is just a favorite of yours because everyone but the Angels stayed away from him and there is no reason to pay him 8 mill

The cubs dont need an Ace we have Zambrano, we need quality 3 and 4 pitchers that will pitch 200 innings at a decent level

KSUCubbie

by ksucubbie on Apr 11, 2006 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

great

byrd, fwiw, makes almost what weaver does and has made less than 20 starts in 3 of the last 5 years.

arroyo is cheap because he's not eligible for f/a yet and has a career 4.59 era.

like it or not, winning teams normally have at least three really good starters. zito, hudson, mulder. carpenter, mulder, suppan. glavine, smoltz, maddux.

even this team -- prior, wood, clement and z in 2003.

z, byrd, arroyo? respectfully, i think it would be a stretch of the imagination to say that's a winning core.

by gaius marius on Apr 11, 2006 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

there is still

prior, marshall, miller, wood, maddux

some of those guys might not be resigned but we dont need 3 aces to win- we need two above average guys to win

jeff weaver isnt a top three core guy anyways i have no idea why you like him so much

KSUCubbie

by ksucubbie on Apr 11, 2006 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

But surely...

...3 aces couldn't hurt. Frankly, I'd feel very confident in a rotation of Z, Zito, Maddux, Prior, and Wood/Miller, as it would have two ace innings eaters, two potential aces, and an artist. That's certainly better than what we have, and I don't think you could argue that Marshall would be better than Zito. Expense be damned, you can't put a price on a World Series. It's called a market. People will earn what others are willing to pay them, even if you may think it's too much.

by Perkins on Apr 11, 2006 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

im not

but im telling you Zito is going to be offered a contract that would be foolish for us to try and match- the Yankees or Red Sox are going to spend ALOT of money on him and finacially it wouldnt make sense

if he wants to come to Chicago for 14-15 mill a year sweet- but he looks like he will go to the highest bidder so my point is its not realistic to go after him

KSUCubbie

by ksucubbie on Apr 11, 2006 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Try

doing a three-year overview from 2003 to 2005 rather than adding Zito's long-ago and very good 2001 and 2002 to the mix.

You are completely (and probably deliberately) ignoring the downward trend in Zito's performance. He isn't the pitcher he was in 2001-2002 anymore and he isn't likely to get back to that level either.

You are also ignoring that he pitches in that cavern in Oakland too.

Besides, I didn't say he was "just an innings eater." I said he's "just a good innings-eater" and that makes a whole lot of difference. Mike Maroth is "just an innings eater." Please don't misquote me. I was about to apologize for something I didn't say. Admittedly, I should have said that he's a very good innings eater. But he's hardly a top of the rotation starter anymore.

Baseball can be summed up in one word--you never know--Joaquin Andujar

by Josh77 on Apr 11, 2006 8:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

not at all

it's certainly fair to overweight his more recent data.

but his three-year sample, as you cited, shows a 3.86 era, 1.26 whip and .234 baa with 104 starts. that's still the cubs second-best pitcher.

and he does pitch in oakland -- so let's take his away split over that time: 3.92 era, 1.29 whip, .235 baa. just as good on the road as at home.

i think it's just completely unevidenced to call zito in a downward trend of some kind. break his last three years into halves and this is what you get:

2/2005 -- 3.81 era -- 1.18 whip -- .219 baa
1/2005 -- 3.91 era -- 1.21 whip -- .223 baa
2/2004 -- 4.32 era -- 1.25 whip -- .242 baa
1/2004 -- 4.62 era -- 1.52 whip -- .282 baa
2/2003 -- 3.33 era -- 1.12 whip -- .203 baa
1/2003 -- 3.28 era -- 1.23 whip -- .230 baa

is that a "downward trend"? don't be ridiculous. it's one bad half in three years.

and then let's contextualize his 2001-2002 which you presume to be unusually good:

2/2002 -- 1.92 era -- 1.07 whip -- .203 baa
1/2002 -- 3.49 era -- 1.19 whip -- .230 baa
2/2001 -- 2.29 era -- 1.10 whip -- .196 baa
1/2001 -- 4.58 era -- 1.35 whip -- .259 baa

better, but not wildly so.

point being -- respectfully -- you seem to have misanalyzed zito. there is no downward trend i can see, and he's clearly not a product of his home park. and he's obviously as much a top of the rotation starter as mark buehrle or cc sabathia.

are there better starters in baseball? clearly, yes. but zito is really good.

by gaius marius on Apr 11, 2006 9:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

we know

but how much do you want to spend to get our 2nd best starter?

you know he is going to be paid a huge contract
for a 2nd best pitcher it doesnt make sense

KSUCubbie

by ksucubbie on Apr 11, 2006 9:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

whatever it takes

quality pitching costs money. is there a single front-of-the-rotation starter that you can remember signing for $3-5mm? i can't think of one either.

jamie moyer, at 43, signed a $6mm contract this offseason. maddux is what we all recognize as a back-of-the-rotation starter on a good staff, and he's going to get more than that in f/a later this year.

so what will quality help cost?

looking forward, the top-tier f/a starters look to be schmidt, pettitte (L), mulder(L), zito (L), contreras, suppan, weaver (again) and marquis. (ponson too -- the cards are headed into a rebuilding year.)

there will be a scale, of course, but the best of them -- zito, pettitte, mulder, schmidt (if he pitches well this season) -- are probably going to command millwood money or better, over $12mm per annum and 4- or 5-year contracts.

that's what i'd be ready to do. people should get ready for it -- not least jim hendry -- you MUST overpay to win in an auction, which is all this is. you have to place the HIGH bid, not the average.

do i think that'll happen? no, this team hasn't signed a top-tier starter since danny jackson and is too profit-driven to start now. i think they'd rather lose games than make less money.

but i hope it does.

by gaius marius on Apr 12, 2006 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Danny Jackson?

Danny Jackson a top-tier starter? Only to those not paying attention. Letting Maddux get away chasing Jackson is one of the worst Cubs moves I can remember.

Zito's got consistent performance to merit this label. Jackson didn't, as he went out of his way to demonstrate after cashing in.

by Jed Taylor on Apr 13, 2006 7:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

allow me to qualify

"top-tier" meaning "costly", not "talented". :)

by gaius marius on Apr 13, 2006 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

hence

jeff weavers inclusion?

KSUCubbie

by ksucubbie on Apr 13, 2006 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re

Ah - based on that definition, absolutely.

by Jed Taylor on Apr 13, 2006 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

consider the alternative

you know he is going to be paid a huge contract -- for a 2nd best pitcher it doesnt make sense

it's that or get ready to lose. next year's rotation would look a lot like z, prior, rusch, williams, marshall, guzman and whatever middling starter the cubs might afford in free agency -- maddux again, perhaps, or someone like him. essentially be the rotation we've got this april, only all year long.

by gaius marius on Apr 12, 2006 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

we havent ever signed a top tier starter

unless you dont count Greg Maddux a few years back??

he was a top pitcher

and including your personal pet Jeff Weaver and Sindey Ponson??? as top level talent is laughable

those guys will NOT command Millwood money simply because this year if you wanted a elite SP it was either Millwood or Burnett both of which arent really elite

your delusional if you think there are enough clubs to shell out 5 yr 60-70 million deals on those pitchers above-- suppy and demand mr economics-- when there is a scarce supply for a commodity people make stupid choices with money when there is more the price is more reasonable

KSUCubbie

by ksucubbie on Apr 12, 2006 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

wadr

maddux was signed to be the fifth starter on this club.

and some will command millwood money, i fear, and some of them quite probably more. i agree that millwood and burnett have some qualifications that kept their value down.

i included ponson, a pretty spotty pitcher, just to note the cardinals' problems, not because i think he's good. but it should be pointed out that the cards will be in the market for pitching, eating up supply. so will the yankees, with their rotation. so will houston be. many others as well. you forget, ksu, that the supply on the market comes from teams who will now be looking for replacements. there's always too few good starters, and the prices will be higher than ever.

by gaius marius on Apr 13, 2006 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

one thing missed

in the statistical analysis thus far is that coming to the NL would result in a lower ERA (up to .5) and a lower BAA as he would be facing the pitcher. Zito would clearly be a top-tier pitcher in the NL.

He is clearly an "ace" and I would welcome him in Wrigley.

by socalbob on Apr 12, 2006 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

You'd also want to make an adjustment for coming into the NL, where you can expect his ERA to go down a bit just from that.

by Jed Taylor on Apr 13, 2006 7:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wood 1-yr Deal

My guess is that Hendry will try to sign Wood to a 1-year deal so Kerry can prove he is healthy and then turn that success into something more lucrative. I don't see Hendry throwing gobs of money at Zito or Jason Schmidt. But I wouldn't be shocked if either one was signed by the Cubs.

by jman on Apr 10, 2006 8:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

sign

maddux and let wood walk

and get over our love fest for Barry Zito

KSUCubbie

by ksucubbie on Apr 10, 2006 8:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

agreed

Maddog's worth on the bench is insurmountable.

2006 -- AC036097 -- Eamus Catuli!

by priorpwnz on Apr 10, 2006 9:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maddux is not retiring or re-signing (now)

I was very amused by two articles
on Maddux while I was in Chicago this
weekend. On Friday one writer suggested
going to Opening Day to get to see what
he thought might well be Maddux's
last Opening Day, On Saturday a different
writer suggested Hendry get Maddux
signed for another year ASAP. As someone
who has obsessively followed Madog for
a while trust me neither is happening.
Maddux is not retiring until he is literally
a totally ineffective pitcher, if he can be
a useful 5th starter to a good team
he plays. I am pretty sure he has another
year or two or 3 left after this one.
I also very much doubt he would consider
re-signing with the Cubs until later in
the season and likely not till after.
His priority is to be with a contending
National League team and while he
does sincerely like playing in Chicago
he ain't sticking around for sentiment.
The Cubs will be lucky if he agrees to stay
not only because they need him but it
would be a sign that a guy as smart
as Maddux thinks they can win. FYI
I would not say cheap but he certainly
won't be expensive.
As for Wood they can't re-sign for a year
as they already have an option for I think
12 million so it is either pay him that or
buy him out (forgot the amount) I have
to think they will let him walk

by jessica on Apr 10, 2006 11:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

and

why cant the Cubs be a contender?

are we out of the race already?

KSUCubbie

by ksucubbie on Apr 11, 2006 12:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course not

It is just that he is a careful man and I don't see
him agreeing to another year at this point ( nor do I see
Hendry offering one). Maddux has been downright
gleeful about constantly saying this is his "contract"
year. I think as much as anything he wants to prove
what he is worth not so much financially but as
an assett to any team. He wants to keep his options
open. The strongest thing in the Cubs favor generally
is that he hates to move around and re-ajust. If he
has a good season and the Cubs have a good season
both of which I expect to happen , than chances are
strong he will be in Cubbie blue next year

by jessica on Apr 11, 2006 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

all of the above

I'd like to see Zito in a Cubs uniform, but he's basically a second or third starter and should be treated as such. Therefore, I don't see him as a probability considering what NY (either), Boston, or others may pay for him.

Trading Pie for the D-Train is an intriguing idea. With Pie's hype, I have a believe-it-when-I-see-it mentality. Plus, Murton should be around awhile, Jones is here for awhile, and I'll be surprised if Pierre isn't. So there may not be an immediate opening for Pie. The most likely spot for him would be to sit Jones, but I'm not sure if we can realistically expect management to do that. So I'd be for that trade.

If Maddux wants to stay and will take a pay cut, sign him. He's not what he used to be, but at least you can count on him to go every fifth day, and you know what to expect out of him. That's more than we can say for any of the other pitchers we've had in the past however many years. With Wood, I'd look for a short-term deal with incentives and a club option, and a definite pay cut. If that won't work, I'll wish him good luck with the Rangers.

"If it takes forever."

by JDay on Apr 11, 2006 2:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Pass!

Gaius is going to beat the snot out of me, but I still have hope for Woody! And mad dog has looked wonderful so far. He's not through yet!

she

by Sarah Hope on Apr 11, 2006 7:44 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

there's room for hope

but none for optimism, sarah. :) he's just never really shown an ability to stay healthy. i don't see how he can be relied on.

if he'll stay for $3-4mm and maybe accept a relief role, sure. but he can't.

by gaius marius on Apr 11, 2006 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

theres ALWAYS room for hope

At least that's what i tell my dates.

she

by Sarah Hope on Apr 11, 2006 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keep Maddog,

Maddux isn't playing for a world series so much anymore, although it would be nice. He is playing for the same reason Cal Ripkin kept playing for the O's. Maddux is big into the alltime baseball stats and will be going for as long as he is healthy and able. If he could he would go after Cy Youngs all time wins record. After this year he should be 10th all time and if clemens retires he will pass him next year.

by nathan on Apr 11, 2006 8:00 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You are so wrong...

... there's not a player in the majors more competitive than Greg Maddux. He plays to win, not to pad stats.

Go look at the quote at the top of this blog for proof of that.

by Al on Apr 11, 2006 8:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He does not give a damn about stats

He finds them an inconvenience which force
him out of his well established routine. He was
thrilled to get win 300 and strikeout 3,000 BEHIND
him as he loathed the attention they attracted. He
plays most of all because HE LOVES the
game , every aspect of it, pitching, hitting , fielding
running the bases, pulling pranks in the clubhouse
etc. and yes he as compeitive as they come
He will be playing somewhere next year , lets just
hope it is in Wrigley which he really does love as well
I loved something he said after Friday's game which
I am too tired to look up. While he was freezing along
with everyone else he commented how much fun it
was to play at Wrigley BECAUSE the weather changed
so much and each game was different. To him this was
a challange not a problem as many pitchers often view
it.

by jessica on Apr 11, 2006 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

history

He is competing against history, against every pitcher on the all time wins list. If he wanted a world series as bad as you claim he wouldn't be a cub.

by nathan on Apr 11, 2006 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know any other way..

... to show you that you're wrong, other than to again refer you to the Maddux quote at the top of this blog.

The absolute last thing he cares about is his place on the win list. He's already a Hall of Famer. He's got a World Series ring.

He wants to bring one to the Cubs. That's why he's still playing, still competing. If you believe otherwise, you simply don't know who Greg Maddux is.

by Al on Apr 11, 2006 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He definately wants ANOTHER ring

I second the idea that Maddux could
care less about his stats or place in
history. There is probably no star athlete
who cares less about personal glory
than Maddux but he DOES care about
winning. If he can't get his ring with
the Cubs this year, he won't be sentimental
about going wherever he can to get one
next year.

by jessica on Apr 11, 2006 11:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

nathan

you're argument would be much more effective if you could provide something to back up your rather strange assertion that maddux is obsessed with individual statistics or public adoration.

what do you have? a quote from maddux? a report from his therapist? how about a thought from his kindergarten teacher? maybe something you overheard his brother's friend's cousin's high school coach's mother's bridge partner said while standing in line at the neighborhood deli?

throw us all a bone here. from where do you derive your unique insight into the inner workings of the mind of maddux?

All will be fixed in 2006

by DSZ on Apr 11, 2006 11:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

absolute opinions

You guys are right and I am wrong, it is obvious that you are all tight with the maddog and know what it is he thinks about when he is lying in bed at night just before he goes to sleep. I mean if a professional ballplayer told it to the media it must be true right? It would be strange for an experienced vet to just placate the media and give them a good dose of "coach speak". I will give most of the people on this blog credit for being so far in denial of reallity there is no coming back, but if I want rainbows and flowers shoved up my butt I will watch sesame street.

by nathan on Apr 12, 2006 8:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow.

A lot's changed since I watched that show...

I don't remember sodomy via flora and bent light refractions.

she

by Sarah Hope on Apr 12, 2006 8:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

they added

that in the late 90's, I vividly remember being a camp counselor and kids threatning sodomy. I didn't know whether to laugh or run away scared.

2006 -- AC036097 -- Eamus Catuli!

by priorpwnz on Apr 12, 2006 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No wonder

Oscar was so grouchy.

she

by Sarah Hope on Apr 12, 2006 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

to quote

Dave Chappelle, "b*tch, I live in a f'ing trash can"

on top of which I'd be pissed too if my whole neighborhood was one big LSD trip 24/7.

2006 -- AC036097 -- Eamus Catuli!

by priorpwnz on Apr 12, 2006 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"coach speak"

You might try the fact that unlike a certain other
future HOF pitcher, Maddux did everything possible
to AVOID the media and play down his #300 win.
He refused to even come back out of the dugout
in San Francisco after the game DESPITE the home
crowd cheering for him because he thought it was
not "right" to do so in opposing teams park. He
even tried to sneak out after the game before being
caught by his teamates.
Then of course there is all his media whoring, commercial
endorsements, talk show appearences etc
Whatever Maddux's flaws are, caring about stats
is DEFINATELY not one of them

by jessica on Apr 12, 2006 8:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

if that

doesn't pacify you Nathan than it might help for you to look up his brother and see what he has to say. Any number of sports writers/announcers will tell you how humble of a man Greg Maddux is. ESPN had an article on it last year, if I can dig it up somewhere here.

2006 -- AC036097 -- Eamus Catuli!

by priorpwnz on Apr 12, 2006 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs