el caballo

by china423 on Jun 28, 2006 8:33 AM CDT

Carlos Lee said he'd be interested in playing for the Cubs next year since he still has a home near Chicago and does nothing but hit in Wrigley Field. But Lee said hes looking for 5 years around 75 million which is way too much for the Brewers. The Cubs should make a serious run at him but maybe only if the deal is in the 50-60 mill. range. Read the whole article below.

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-060627cubsbits,1,7689860.story?coll= cs-cubs-headlines

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Lee...

... was also hanging around in the OF laughing and cracking jokes with bleacherites and his teammates. He seems to be a player who consummately enjoys playing the game, and the Cubs could use more of those -- in addition to his talent.

He has now hit 12 HR in 115 career AB at Wrigley Field.

GET HIM.

by Al Yellon on Jun 28, 2006 8:57 AM CDT reply actions

5 years/75 million

Is too much for him. At this point I don't mind overpaying for talent but $15 million is too much for Carlos Lee. I think you're right $50-60 million is a good range for him. I guess I wouldn't be disappointed if we paid that but I wouldn't be real happy either.

by pageian on Jun 28, 2006 8:59 AM CDT reply actions

Don't worry about the 5/75 crap...

All guys say what they want, that doesn't mean anyone will offer it. If the Yanks/Red Sox won't offer that much, no one will. He'll quickly realize that he's probably more along the lines of a Rafael Furcal deal (3/40) or a DLee-ish deal (5/60), although he isn't worth DLee money.

by ontheuptick on Jun 28, 2006 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions

I think...

... Carlos Lee IS worth 5/60.

by Al Yellon on Jun 28, 2006 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, I'm not going to argue with ya...

...5/60 is probably the upper limits of what he is worth. Not any more than that, I would much rather go 4/50 personally.

by ontheuptick on Jun 28, 2006 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions

4/50 or 5/60

Sound about right. I'd go 4/50 if I had my choice, but I don't. I could live with 5/60.

by pageian on Jun 28, 2006 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions

Al

but do you really think he'd take 5/60 right off the bat? If we offered him 5/60, he'd wait and listen to other offers and easily go to another team. If we made it more, like 5/70 or so, he'd probably sign right away.

by colossus @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jun 28, 2006 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions

The 5 years..

..may be an issue too. I was thinking 3-4 years with some kind of mutual option for another. Then again he's never spent any significant time on the DL. Anyone have a login to baseballprospectus.com?

Chicks dig the long ball

by Will23 on Jun 28, 2006 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions

It's good to hear

he wants to play for the Cubs, he would be a welcome bat in the lineup considering how bad he kills us at Wrigley.

stuck in exile in Disney.

by Faith plus 1 on Jun 28, 2006 9:31 AM CDT reply actions

Almost all free agents

say they'd like to play in whatever city they're in on a road trip to the local press. It's just good business. I'm sure he means it but I wouldn't read much into it.

by pageian on Jun 28, 2006 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions

never

read too much into it, remain cautiously optimistic.

stuck in exile in Disney.

by Faith plus 1 on Jun 29, 2006 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions

C'mon...

...do you expect him to say anything else? He's going to go where he gets the most money. He probably will say the same thing in Pittsburgh if they ask.

by jolietconvict on Jun 28, 2006 9:36 AM CDT reply actions

The Cubs have the money.

They should spend it. Look what we saved this year by going with Perez, Jones, Pieere, and Rusch.

by teacher tom on Jun 28, 2006 9:48 AM CDT reply actions

Johnny Damon also said he would like

to play for the Cubs during the Red Sox 3 game series at Wrigley last year. What did the Cubs do? Nothing. They didnt even consider the best alternative on the market, opting for a "cheaper" and less talented alternative in Juan Pierre.

It is much more Jim Hendry's style to sign a Cliff Floyd-type to a 2-year deal at around 6.5 mil/year.

Now if you were to argue that Jim Hendry wont be here because his 2-year, 3 million dollar deal simply isnt a big enough deterrent to dissuade hiring an actual Major League GM this off season. I'll listen to that argument.

Because with Jim Hendry, you will never see a free agent acquistion like Carlos Lee/Alfonso Soriano/Barry Zito/Julio Lugo. He simply doesnt have the stones to put himself out there with a big commitment to a free agent. He never has, never will.

by Santos Sorrow @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jun 28, 2006 9:50 AM CDT reply actions

Sadly......

this...

It is much more Jim Hendry's style to sign a Cliff Floyd-type to a 2-year deal at around 6.5 mil/year.

is what more than likely will happen :(

by TheBeerBaron on Jun 28, 2006 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Problem is....

the Cubs will be competing with the big boys on this one. NYY will need an outfielder. Curious George will pay over the 5/60 mark. Will the Cubs? Is it worth it?

he hath no fury like a cubs fan scorned

by timeforachange on Jun 28, 2006 10:30 AM CDT reply actions

Where would the...

Yankees put him? In left and move Matsui to right?

Or maybe they don't care about defense.

Cubbie Blue will always sPaRkLe in my eyes, but please stop losing. PLEASE!

by sparkles721 on Jun 28, 2006 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions

Which is why..

..it is important for any team that wants to sign him to a long term deal to also trade for him now and use the 24 hour negociating window to lock em up.

CLee is in a great spot though. He has a lot of leverage and ya have to think that someone will give him around 5/70.

Chicks dig the long ball

by Will23 on Jun 28, 2006 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions

unless the brewers tank

they are going to want actual quality for him. and the only quality we have is Marshall, maybe Marmol. Then we're just robbing Peter to pay Paul.

by mike bornemann @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jun 28, 2006 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions

Same thing for Abreu

There has been talk here about acquiring Abreu. The Phillies aren't looking to rebuild, they want major league players and real ones not the type the Cubs have.

by rlpete on Jun 28, 2006 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions

Re

What the Cubs have is money. What the Cubs don't have are prospects. Trading prospects for 1/2 season of CLee just so the Cubs can overpay him to keep him from going to FA is exactly how to ensure the club doesn't break .500 for the next few years.

The Cubs need to rebuild the farm system as well as address OF offense and starting pitching. The way to do that is via free agency. That doesn't mean Hendry will do it, or do it well, but there's nothing so unique about CLee that requires spending both money and supposed talent to get him.

Visit The Digital Gazette

by Jed Taylor on Jul 1, 2006 1:07 AM CDT up reply actions

Yankees and Lee

Unless Lee can play RF, I don't see the Yankess going after him. Matsui will be returning plus Lee is too slow to play in that big LF.

One team to watch for might be Houston. They will likely undergo a serious makeover and they need hitting. McLane seems to be willing to spend money to a point. With Clemens, Bagwell, etc. off the books, they might make a run as Lee would like playing there with that short LF fence.

by rlpete on Jun 28, 2006 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions

Another contender

Anaheim could also be in the running. They sure don't have a problem spending money. With Kennedy, Salmon, Anderson and Colon(?) among others reaching the end and freeing cash, Lee would be a nice bookend for them with Vlad. Additionally, with the number of cheap youngsters they have coming up, they can afford to overspend at a position or two.

That's another Cub problem, no minor league. It's hard to build an entire roster via free agency. Boston two years ago might have been the closest I can remember.

by rlpete on Jun 28, 2006 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions

I don't know

I can't see the Yankees being after Lee. Don't know why. I still think they'll resign Sheffield. Moving Matsui to right is an option I guess. There's always the chance they'll acquire someone before the deadline this year because of Sheffield/Matsui being injured, so maybe they won't be going after an outfielder at all in the offseason. I can't see the Red Sox going after Lee either, not with Pena on the roster and the possibility of bringing back Nixon. I think they'll spend money on pitching first, like the Yankees need to do as well.

by pageian on Jun 28, 2006 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions

Who can we get after 2007?

Maybe we should save the money. I saw Adam Dunn on a possible free-agent list after 2007, not sure if that's right though.

Cubbie Blue will always sPaRkLe in my eyes, but please stop losing. PLEASE!

by sparkles721 on Jun 28, 2006 10:41 AM CDT reply actions

ouch

now we're talking about waiting until after next year to improve the team.

by tomas21 on Jun 28, 2006 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions

No...

it's just that I don't want to block left field with a huge contract only to see that someone like Adam Dunn is available the year after. I would take Dunn over Lee.

If we are going to get a contender next year, then sure sign Lee. If not, then I want to make sure we look at all the possible options.

Cubbie Blue will always sPaRkLe in my eyes, but please stop losing. PLEASE!

by sparkles721 on Jun 28, 2006 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree completely.

by mportsch on Jun 28, 2006 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions

Re

Absolutely. So the question is whether CLee could play RF.

Visit The Digital Gazette

by Jed Taylor on Jul 1, 2006 1:12 AM CDT up reply actions

I

don't think I could take anotehr year of this. 98 years is enough. Don't push to 100.

by colossus @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jun 28, 2006 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions

I believe that Dunn is a free agent after 2007...

and if the Cubs are truly willing to spend big money, they'd be much wiser to find a 1-year LF stopgap for 2007, then go all out for Adam Dunn instead of Carlos Lee. Or better yet, send a couple prospects to Cincinnati this offseason and lock up Dunn to a long term deal before he hits the free agent market (and have him in LF for 2007). Dunn is an offensive superstar - check out his PECOTA projections for upcoming seasons:

Year Age EqA AVG/OBP/SLG
2007 27 .319 273/399/584
2008 28 .326 276/413/592
2009 29 .326 274/412/595
2010 30 .317 268/401/576

Dunn should actually be worth the $75M/5yrs, and that contract would cover his prime years 28-32, as opposed to ages 31-35 if Lee gets a 5-year deal. Dunn is exactly the type of free agent for whom the Cubs should be willing to overpay.
Right now, Dunn is having a down year, but even with that said, his 2006 EqA is .297, basically the same as Lee's current .300 EqA (in a career year for him). There's absolutely no comparison between Carlos Lee and Adam Dunn, yet Lee is asking for Dunn type money. The Cubs need to steer clear of Lee if that's what he's going to cost, because signing him to that type of contract would prevent the Cubs from signing players that are actually worth the big money, like Adam Dunn.

by mportsch on Jun 28, 2006 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions

And just think...

..if all of these projections were acurate....we wouldn't even need a GM, just a lawyer to draw up the contracts.

vote santo for h.o.f.

by santo for prez on Jun 28, 2006 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions

Wow,

you've got quite an argument there. Let's just ignore any data and sign guys randomly.

by mportsch on Jun 29, 2006 7:49 AM CDT up reply actions

I'm just saying..

..that unless you have a flux-capacitor those projected numbers are nothing more than dreams. You should base a player on what he has put up in the past and appears to be able to continue to do physically and mentally to continue at that pace. Actually with the way that Perez and Blanco have been improving their numbers each month since April, maybe the two of them will be hitting .782 by the end of the season. Just projecting off of the increasing they are showing now ya' know.

vote santo for h.o.f.

by santo for prez on Jun 29, 2006 8:04 AM CDT up reply actions

I think you don't understand

where those projections come from. They are specifically based on...
what he has put up in the past and appears to be able to continue to do physically and mentally to continue at that pace.
PECOTA uses comparable players of the same skillset and age to come up with projections based on past performance. It's not like those numbers are just pulled from the air. Based on past performance, skillset, and age, Adam Dunn is way more valuable than Carlos Lee. Is it possibly that Dunn will flame out, while Carlos Lee suddenly reaches a new level of production at age 31? Yes, it's possible, but it's not likely enough to validate paying Carlos Lee more money than he can be expected to be worth.

by mportsch on Jun 29, 2006 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions

Didn't...

... Dunn already sign an extension with the Reds?

by Al Yellon on Jun 29, 2006 8:51 AM CDT up reply actions

Damn,

you're right, Al. Here's the details:
Dunn gets a salary of 7.5 million this year and a hefty raise in 2007 to 10.5 million and 13 million salary in 2008, with a club buyout option for 500,000.
Source is here. Dunn is a steal at those prices. Wayne Krivsky is doing a hell of a job over in Cincinnati.

by mportsch on Jun 29, 2006 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions

So, you're saying that...

All of the sudden Adam Dunn is going to go from .225 to around .270???? What makes you believe that's accurate???

Ryne Sandberg is the best second baseman of all time

by TheBeerBaron on Jun 29, 2006 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Argh.

I'm not saying he'll get those exact numbers - I'm just saying Adam Dunn has a much higher established level of production than Carlos Lee. It really doesn't matter anyway, now that I realize Dunn signed an extension in the offseason.

by mportsch on Jun 29, 2006 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm really ashamed

of Julie and I for missing this. So here goes,

"Grrrr, Dunn no have contract? Thought Dunn signed autograph? That make Dunn angry. Want to hit ball far in ivy field. Want Dusty to put Dunn in 8-slot and platoon Dunn with Bynum. Grrr...."

she

by Sarah Hope on Jun 29, 2006 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions

Autograph?

That's awesome. I imagine the "caveman lawyer" voice from SNL when you type that stuff.

by jcub on Jun 29, 2006 7:19 PM CDT up reply actions

Very astute of you

Phil Hartman and his many levels of genius are our inspiration.

she

by Sarah Hope on Jun 30, 2006 7:26 AM CDT up reply actions

He strikes out..

..a lot, I think he would fit in perfect if the cubs re-sign Dusty. He had more strikeouts in his second season than Lee had in his first 2 seasons. He almost struck out 200 times in 04'. Lee's worst year was 94 in 2000. Dunn's career avg is .246, Lee is .284. He has struck out well over 100 times in 4 of his first 5 seasons and is on pace for about 160 again this year. The fans are going to be pretty hard on a guy that comes in and bats .225 with 190 strikeouts, then he'll want out of Chicago and we will all be writing about him just like everyone is writing about Ramirez right now. I wonder what his predictions are for the next few years (prior to this season's predictions)

vote santo for h.o.f.

by santo for prez on Jun 29, 2006 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions

he strikes out a lot

but unlike any of the cubs who do that, he also carries an obp of close to .400, and he can hit 40+ homers/

by tomas21 on Jun 30, 2006 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions

My only gripe

I like Carlos Lee, my only concern is that he is another LFer. I would rather see the Cubs go after Abreu or some other RF, and move Jones to LF where he could platoon with Murton (assuming he doesn't go in a trade). Then you let Murton develop slowly, perhaps turning into quality major league LFer, or at the very least turning into a fantastic platoon partner with Jones.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Jun 28, 2006 11:32 AM CDT reply actions

I like this idea

Not that I'm a big Abreu fan but he is a good hitter, high OBP and some power. They say he isn't a good outfielder but it's not like were littered with gold gloves out there now. Nothing against Lee, if the Cubs sign him I'd be satisfied, but I'd rather see them get a legitimate right fielder and platoon Jone/Murton in left instead of keeping Jones in right and replacing Murton. It seems to me that the collective mind has been made up and Murton isn't going to be the starting left fielder on this team next year. Since Jones isn't very moveable in a trade unless you dump him or pay his salary I say platoon those two and fill the void with a good right fielder. But I'll take Lee if we get him.

by pageian on Jun 28, 2006 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions

D'oh....

I didn't see you already posted this....i did too

by TheBeerBaron on Jun 28, 2006 1:43 PM CDT reply actions

Dunn

Dunn's a Houston native, there has been talk of him wanting to go there to play.

by PriorandAramisfan23 on Jun 28, 2006 5:03 PM CDT reply actions

Will Lee even be moved?

I'll be surprised if Lee's traded this year, unless the Brewers really fall out of contention by the deadline. It looks like nobody wants to win this division, so that's not likely. If he is traded with them in contention, it will be in a huge deal, and the Cubs don't have the players to get him. Not to mention that dealing young talent (if we had any or enough) for him now would be counterproductive, because it's not overly realistic to think this team will contend next year.

I'm warming up more to the idea of signing him as a FA, though. I didn't realize that he was only 30 and that he could steal a few bases. I don't think 5/60 would be too bad.

"If it takes forever."

by JDay on Jun 28, 2006 10:26 PM CDT reply actions