For all you daring sabermetrists...

by cubsfan2883 on Jul 21, 2006 3:46 PM CDT Comment 22 comments

Defend this statement..

ESPN's Stark Market tells us that the Mets may have soured a bit on Lastings Milledge and could consider shipping him to Philadelphia for Bobby Abreu. Meanwhile, Baseball Prospectus's Jay Jaffe reminds us that Milledge's most comparable player is Ruben Mateo, and recommends the deal for New York.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Defend what?

Baseball Prospectus's sabermetric tool for comparing and projecting players says that Milledge's most comparable player is an absolute nobody and they recommend that the Mets trade him for Abreu. Jayson Stark tells us that the Mets don't view Milledge as highly as they used to and might be willing to send him to the Phillies for Abreu. Maybe I'm mistaking what you mean in your comments, but it seems to me that your saying that these are contradictory statements which they aren't.

Replace the ivy with hemlock

by jc60625 on Jul 21, 2006 3:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

What

are we supposed to defend? That Jaffe thinks the Mets should trade Milledge for Abreu?

First of all, you might want to source that you took that quote verbatim from MLBtraderumors.com. Otherwise, it's plagiarism.

Secondly, all Jaffe said was that he wasn't sold on Milledge (and apparently the Mets aren't either) because he doesn't walk enough. He later added that PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus' prognostication system) ranked Ruben Mateo as the most similar player to Milledge. All he meant by that is that PECOTA is just another red flag for Milledge.

All Jaffe said, if you read the original chat, was that the Mets have a chance to win it all this year, that Bobby Abreu is going to be more productive than Milledge or Nady or anyone else the Mets have this year and the Milledge is not enough of a sure thing to hold onto if it means not getting Abreu for this season.

The Mets could win it all and they should go for it. Not really much that is sabermetric about that. As far as PECOTA goes, you'd have to ask Nate Silver, as he's the only one who really understands that.

by Josh77 on Jul 21, 2006 4:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I want you to defend that Milledge

whom most everyone else considers a top notch cannot miss guy to Ruben Mateo who was a nobody.

Milledge can do many things well and when all is said and done BP will look stupid for making such a comparison. It is in cases like these that statistics are taken too far. They ignore things like Tools.. which Milledge has all how about the fact that Milledge said he was going to work on getting on base more.. and he did.. to the tune of a .419 OBP at AAA ... BP will look silly for making this judgement and thus the whole comparable player system needs a closer examination.

by cubsfan2883 on Jul 21, 2006 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ruben Mateo

also had tools and was still a bust.

Replace the ivy with hemlock

by jc60625 on Jul 21, 2006 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fine I will

after you defend your pilfering a quote without noting that it's a quote.

You absolutely don't seem to get it. Similarity is only ONE tool with which predict how a player will turn out. It is not the only one. This is why the media is so stupid about sabermetrics--they don't understand what is said so they take what is said out of context and then use it to try to make sabermetricians sound stupid when all they are doing is sounding stupid.

Thanks Joe Morgan.

Your statement that "most everyone else considers [Milledege] a top notch cannot miss guy" is simple false. Ken Rosenthal says "Others, however, say that Milledge triggered renewed questions about his makeup during his 24-game stint with the Mets earlier this season, prompting club officials to become more open to a trade."

You go on about how Milledge has the tools. Well Ruben Mateo and Corey Patterson had the tools too. How'd they turn out? Milledge has a .406 OBP in 66 games in AAA. Ruben Mateo had a .408 OBP in 57 games in AAA. Jeez, how could anyone think they were similar? OK, Mateo was older. That's a big point in Milledge's favor. But at the same age as Milledge is now, Mateo turned in a .375 OBP in 63 games at AAA. A difference, but not enough of a one to say that a comparison is ridiculous.

Finally, what are you some kind of Mets fan? Why do you care what Jaffe thinks of Lastings Milledge? I suspect you don't care, but rather are simply interested in using this point to smash sabermetricians and anyone who uses their evidence. In which case, there is no reason to defend anything because you simply aren't interested in a reasoned debate--you just want to start an on-line lynching of sabermetric arguments.

Please defend your position. Use complete sentences and proofread your response this time because your previous posts are very difficult to read.

by Josh77 on Jul 21, 2006 7:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting..

I do typically use proper punctuation when typing posts. But for you I will defend my point.

My point is that neither a tools based approach or a sabermetric approach should be used as an end all to baseball player development. For every story about how PECOTA predicted this or that there are hundreds of cases where they were way off...similar to scouting. Also, statistics can prove anything you want them to prove. It just depends how you analyze them. Any statistician can show you statistics it depends on what you want to look at that determines what the end result of your research is. My point is there is no perfect system; however, sabermetrists are no better at predicting which players will break out and which will not.

As for your attitude.. which you seem to have a great deal of .. you can lose it :) I intended to set up a debate of sabermetrists and other ways of predicting player development. I think both need to be used and at different times in ones career. Sometimes statistics do not tell a complete story. and Like I said it depends on which ones you look at .

by cubsfan2883 on Jul 21, 2006 7:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can't believe that

Jones for Milledge hasn't been suggested yet.

by CubFaninCA on Jul 21, 2006 4:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

If it'll make you feel better

I'll say it.

by colossus on Jul 21, 2006 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

I don't feel any better tho. :)

by CubFaninCA on Jul 21, 2006 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This isn't new

Not sure what this has to do with sabermetrics but I've heard the same thing about Milledge as well. The Mets aren't quite as high as him as they used to be. They seem willing to move him but I think they want starting pitching before Abreu.

As for the Cubs, we already have our Milledge, it's Felix Pie. A young talented OF with speed and power but questionable plate discipline. After watching Milledge though, I expect Pie is a better defender.

by rlpete on Jul 21, 2006 4:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Questionable Plate Discipline

with an OBP of above .400 at AAA as a 20 year old?

Sorry Baseball Prospectus is wrong here.. Milledge is going to succeed ... I predict a good career for Milledge.. I like the fact that he can say I am going to do this... and then go out and actually do it..

by cubsfan2883 on Jul 21, 2006 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

At this point...

It's your forecast against BPs...PECOTA isn't the first and last word on performance predictions...

Do you really want to wait for a year or two to determine who was right?

by DudeVf1 on Jul 22, 2006 2:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm

didn't milledge excel @ Triple A? Pie hasn't.

by CubFaninCA on Jul 21, 2006 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pie excels in AAA

at lacking plate discipline.

by colossus on Jul 21, 2006 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And...

... it's a reasonable comparison since Pie and Milledge are the same age (21) and Pie actually has several hundred MORE minor league AB's than Milledge does.

by Al on Jul 21, 2006 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So

should we trade for Milledge then and give Pie to whoever wants him?

by colossus on Jul 21, 2006 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

...what?

"You hit your way on, you don't walk your way on" - Jim Hendry

by VS on Jul 21, 2006 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's the guy's name on second base.

That was for Old Man Yellon.

by colossus on Jul 21, 2006 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

HEY!

I'm not THAT old!

by Al on Jul 21, 2006 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Flame away

Jones & Murton for Milledge. Jones & Nady's a really good RF platoon. Floyd & Murton are a nice LF platoon.

Milledge is young, cheap and unlike Murton, very talented.

by CubFaninCA on Jul 21, 2006 4:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

gary hughes?

is that you? My gut says this Hill kid is goig to be a superstar, maybe better than that Dubois kid.

by mike bornemann on Jul 21, 2006 4:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Im a saberminded fan. Still there is a huge thing

Jaffe isn't mentioning. Mateo had that horrific leg injury and never had the tools once he made the majors. It's like saying that the Rays should trade D Young because his best comp could be a guy like Ellis Valentine whose career was essentially ended by a pitch to the head.

Oh and Ellis Valntine and Ruben Mateo are close. PECOTA doesn't even include tool reports...meh.

Shades of Wrigley

by Ienpw on Jul 21, 2006 6:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs