So I was curious.....

by Lablover on Aug 12, 2006 12:24 AM CDT

and looked up some stats for the cubs after noticing the cubs had 10 hits and were able to score only 2 runs. Upon further investigation i founf that the cubs were 9th in the N.L in hits and 16th in runs scored. Not suprising we were last in walks by 50. The Marlin, a team loaded with youth, has 64 more walks. What do this mean you may ask, well what I think is that the marlins are COACHABLE, while the cubs have veteran "hackers" who have "proved" they belong in the big leagues and do not take well to coaching. Looking a little deeper I calculated the amount of at bats and divided it by walks to get a rough estimate(i know walks are not at bats but i am leaving them out) . The leaders on the team were Dlee 1 out of 5, Aramis 1 out of 11, Murton 1 out of 9.5 and Barrett 1 out of 11. However the not so good are Pierre 1 out of 19, Jones 1 out of 20, Cedeno 1 out of 31.5, Bynum 1 out of 36.5 and my personal favorite Perez 1 out of 43 at bats! I couldn't find first pitch swinging outs but niefi has to be leading this too. For someone to continue to march out him as a 2 hitter is irresponsible no matter what feeling you have. I think the point that I am trying to make is that we are getting the hits to score runs the issue we are having is that we have a hitter or hitters coming to the plate in between hits and killing scoring oppurtunities. This blame falls solely on he who makes the lineup for not putting players together who have the best chance to score. And its not about playing feelings or favorites its about scoring runs and winning games.

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It's more than that

The hitters that the Cubs draft are toolsy and free-swinging. They don't draft high-OBP guys.

Though some of the hitting coaches in the minors talk about patience, overall the organizational philosophy is to be aggressive.

The Cubs don't emphasize OBP in trades or FA signings. If they get an OBP upgrade -- like they did over time with Aramis -- it's a byproduct of trading for him because of his slugging and age (and, of course, the salary dump by Pittsburgh).

I heard Theriot get interviewed by Santo before the game tonight. He said he had been working a lot with Geno (Clines) and that one thing they had been emphasizing was being more aggressive at the plate. Paraphrased: "In the minors, I was a hitter who would take more pitches, look to see what a pitcher had. But the pitchers here are a lot better. I need to be more aggressive, especially later in the game, because I might get only one pitch to hit, so I'd better hit it. If I get down 0-2, they can put me away."

It's a system that fears the strikeout and sacrifices OBP -- and now slugging -- for a bunch of slap-happy singles hitters.

It's a huge systemic problem and it won't change until MacPhail, Hendry and Dusty all get the heave-ho. I personally belive this kind of B.S. won't change while the Tribune Company owns the Cubs.

What does not kill you makes you stronger.

by Pa on Aug 12, 2006 12:46 AM CDT reply actions

I agree it's a systemic problem...

... but as noted in the post below, it's mostly Baker-centric.

The Cubs had plenty of players who drew walks before Baker's arrival, including Sammy Sosa, Mark Bellhorn, Mark Grace, others.

The quote about making Ryan Theriot an "aggressive" hitter is very disturbing. I truly cannot understand the almost-comic obsession with this.

It's got to change, and the main culprits, in my mind, are Baker and the coaching staff.

by Al Yellon on Aug 12, 2006 5:13 AM CDT up reply actions

Not that Baker will be fired

but do you NOW agree that not firing Baker in July has, in fact, negative ramifications for the future? The TheRiot quote further supports the claim that many of us have made that the Baker approach has messed up the young players PARTICULARLY the hard working ones like Murton and TheRiot who are willing to listen to and follow coaching. And maybe, just maybe, this is a reason that many of the vaunted CUb prospects have flopped. They have been coached into failure

Its also a reason why, perhaps, Murton is sitting since he has started showing patience at the plate once again and appears to be trying to pull the ball less and go with the pitch for a hit. This may work, but its contrary to the hitting theory of the team and he is being disciplined.

by Frustrated Fan on Aug 12, 2006 6:52 AM CDT up reply actions

Anecdote

A few years ago (in 2004) I met a friend of a friend, who I learned also happened to be a high school friend of Mark Bellhorn. I asked him if he knew why things didn't work out with Bellhorn and the Cubs (this was when Bellhorn was playing pretty well for a Boston team that would go on to win the WS). Bellhorn's friend told me things were fine with Baylor, but Bellhorn never got along with Dusty Baker because Baker didn't want guys who took walks and worked counts. He wanted guys who were more aggressive at the plate, so he tried to change Bellhorn's approach. Bellhorn didn't really take to the new style and was shipped out of town. The guy who told me this story wasn't a Cubs fan at all, just someone who knew Bellhorn.

by cubsbak on Aug 12, 2006 7:46 AM CDT up reply actions

my cousin

played with Bellhorn at Auburn and he said pretty much the same thing when I asked him about Mark.

by Strickland843 on Aug 12, 2006 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions

That's 3 players

going back over past decade plus, only one of whom is a farm product (Grace) and he came up well before MacPhail arrived, much less Hendry.

I don't know how you can look at the drafts under MacPhail and Hendry (we'll exclude this year's draft and let Wilkins be evaluated separately) and say that there has not a systemic preference for position players who are toolsy athletes vs baseball players and whose main attribute is hitting the ball vs. batting as a function of plate discipline. Go to the milb.com site and the sortable team stats and sort the hitting stats by league for OBP. The few players in the system whose OBP isn't mainly driven by batting average -- Sam Fuld comes to mind -- are lower draft picks who tend to be blocked or whose advancement is stalled for other reasons.

Dusty and the coaches are a problem. But they aren't the only problem. They haven't been supervising and/or running the Cubs drafts for the past decade and they aren't responsible for the dearth of position players since then. They didn't make Dopirak and Harvey their top picks in the draft. That blame rests at the feet of Hendry and MacPhail and the organizational philosophy is unlikely to change until there is change at the top.

Dusty et al need to go for a variety of other reasons -- not running Z into the ground during a meaningless season being first and foremost.

What does not kill you makes you stronger.

by Pa on Aug 12, 2006 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions

Some more stats

Since Baker came over the number of K's has dropped dramatically. In 2003 we had the 3rd highest and now we're 15th of 16 teams. I believe amost of this has to do with the aggressive hitting philosophy. If you swing early and often, you seldom strikeout. Of course opposition pitchers know this and throw pitches off the plate resulting in easy outs and a terrible team OBP.

I also noticed that our #2 batter overall has the lowest OBP and SLG% resulting in a terrible .647 OPS. This has much to do with the fact that the team has scored the fewest runs in the majors.

A few more stats. Leading off an inning, Neifi has a .120 BA. Jones vs LH .190 BA .214 OBP. vs RH .314 BA .351 OBP.

The stats shouldn't surprise anyone. They were predictable. The fact that Dusty chooses to ignore them is merely a further indictment of his managerial skills.

Players win awards but teams win championships.

by tharr on Aug 12, 2006 4:57 AM CDT reply actions

Iirc

the Cubs are near the bottom in batting average w/ risp.

Forget Zito, Soriano, Schmidt & Lee. Its Mulder, Durham & Cameron instead.

by CubFaninCA on Aug 12, 2006 12:12 PM CDT reply actions

I see this

stat as related to their lack of walks. The theory goes like this. It's very difficult to get 3 or more hits in an inning. Since the only way for the Cubs to get runners into scoring position is by getting two hits (i.e. the Cubs don't walk, other than Pierre they don't steal much, and they don't get many extra base hits so it therefore usually takes them 2 base hits to get runners into scoring position), the chances of getting that third hit to score the run becomes very remote. If they took more walks or ran the bases better they'd be more likely to score runs with just 1 or 2 hits in an inning, and I believe their average with RISP would be higher. It's just a thought.

by cubsbak on Aug 12, 2006 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions

Exactly....

A walk, a sacrafice bunt, and a single score a run. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that walks lead to runs, not that walks clog the bases. But it's not Dusty's fault, he ain't got his horses dude.

My Immediate Kindness Eventually Sets Up Cool Kosier Status.

by santo for prez on Aug 12, 2006 8:37 PM CDT up reply actions