2007 Cubs = 2006 Devil Rays ???
I noticed a lot of positivity lately presumably because the Cubs have been playing better baseball lately.
If the Cubs can finish like they have played the last couple of months they will end up around 67-95 give or take a couple of games.......Does anyone know what Tampa Bay's record was last year? It was 67-95.
A healthy DLee, a healthy Prior and next year could be the exact same kind of season. What is to say that two of the rookies won't come back next year on fire .....how many Devil Rays fans thought their rookies were gonna be so good? I mean, besides Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, The Hardball Times, and all the other people that thought the D-Rays prospects were good.
So many posters on here (myself included) have voiced their opinions stating, "let the kids play" since the season is lost anyway. Well the kids are playing and they are going to take their lumps, the key is for them to become completely different players in the offseason...and to reflect. If Cedeno can learn to hit 30 homers play better defense while Murton learns to hit 40 homers this team is then only 12 or 13 players away from being really, really good.
I am not real knowledgeable about how Tampa Bay played as a team last year (I started taking drugs and drinking heavily last year) so let me know why you think that either the Devil Rays were in the same situation as the Cubs are or why they were better off than this years Cubs are heading into next season.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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137 comments
Comments
It is time.....
We should just pretend we don't have him and do our conjecture from there. If he comes back in any meaningful way then it's gravy. But really, how many times do you have to be smacked in the head to decide to finally get out of the way?
by PopeFlick on Aug 24, 2006 6:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You know...
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 6:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Why don't you..
by santo for prez on Aug 24, 2006 6:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Love it, or Leave It!!!!
by Santos Sorrow on Aug 24, 2006 8:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Come on
There's plenty of criticism of the Cubs here. And yes, it's often peppered with posts from people who think criticizing the team means you are not a fan. Whatever. This place is full of people who hate Dusty, Hendry, etc, and are plenty pissed off over what has transpired here the past few years. To say it's not is just ridiculous.
But stop painting all of us with such a broad brush.
by cubbiejulie on Aug 24, 2006 9:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What are you talking about?
by jcub on Aug 25, 2006 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
for gods sake
is there no room for sarcasm? must you present your views in the BCB way?
if ANYONE here would take the time before they spoke to realize that maddog runs a great blog (which for some reason isnt linked here) is one of the smartest commentators out then you wouldnt see this type of reaction
he knows more than that 90 % of the ppl who comment here and just because he doenst think we will be the 2007 Tigers he gets this shit
is this going to be a Cubs love it or leave type of place or somewhere where anyone can post?
by ksucubbie on Aug 24, 2006 6:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Truth be told, we are probably somewhere in the middle. Everyone just relax.
And, for the record, this diary made me laugh. Well, maybe smirk.
by cubbiejulie on Aug 24, 2006 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
But why give up on next year NOW?
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
al this site swarms on maddog, santos ect because they are agressive in their anger at this team yet people can trumpet players like izturis and bascially be agressivly foolish in their optimism
bcb is leaning way too much towards the America F**K yeah kind of crowd
by ksucubbie on Aug 24, 2006 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm fine with the doom and gloom...
And the Tigers comparison wasn't silly when you look at how bad the Tigers were last year and what they're getting out of essentially the same players this year. Somehow the Tigers have been romaticized into this fantastic team (and they are very good this year, though deceptively good) that everybody saw coming a long while sgo but it's simply not true. The Tigers were a bad team last year and most thought they'd be bad this year. You could make the Tigers argument for a number of teams for next season.
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 7:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly...
by thekansasian on Aug 24, 2006 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
by Jeff Pico on Aug 24, 2006 7:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can't stand that site...
When the Cubs do finally win the World Series the only sad place in Cubdom will be that blog.
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 7:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
theprognosticator...
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 9:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
this entire diary was created to run down...
If there's anyone who should be issuing an apology it is you, and not to me, but to santo4prez who didn't deserve the crap you gave him.
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 10:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You said
So find 3 of them that do this. Just 3. If every single one of them does it, it shouldn't be hard to find just 3.
I will not apologize to Santo for prez for writing this. Under no circumstances will that happen. He had this and then some coming his way after the way he went off on people who disagreed with what he said on his thread.
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Since we're nitpicking here...
It was. You're nitpicking in order to distract from the issue. You posted a diary specifically to run down another poster.
And I checked the other diary santo started. I couldn't find one post where he was ripping into people, he was merely having a discussion.
If you don't want to apologize then that's your business, I'm done talking about this. But you clearly effed up in posting this diary and the sooner you just accept that and move on the quicker we can get over this and on to discussing Cubs baseball.
by theprognosticator on Aug 25, 2006 12:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK..
Really, I asked the question why couldn't we be next years Tigers. The basis for that question was the fact that the Tigers had a comparable record last year. They did not make HUGE moves during the off-season and they have depended on previously un-proven players and young pitchers. A person who is intelligent had every right to dispute that fact (hopefully with some reasonable basis for dispute). To write a reciprical diary almost verbatim to the first, was not only childish, but also confirms my theory that there are a lot of posters here that are happier with a poor Cubs team....some people seem to be happiest when the can complain and sarcastic.
by santo for prez on Aug 24, 2006 7:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
because
we werent better than them last year we certainly arent this year
put this team in the AL central and we are worse than the royals
as trite as maddog's diary was its a response to seeing diaries like that
by ksucubbie on Aug 24, 2006 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point is...
Of course you wouldn't, and especially not after having made two free-agent signings (Jones, Rogers) that were widely panned in Detroit.
A lot of credit has to go to Jim Leyland, of course.
Now, does this mean the 2007 Cubs WILL be as good as the 2006 Tigers? Of course it doesn't. It only means that it COULD happen. If you don't want to believe in hope and possibilities, what on Earth are you doing being a fan of a sports team in the first place?
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 7:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
wait a minute
first off, how the hell are you going to say that? i can be a sports fan for whatever reason i choose and of course i have faith the cubs can win next year
but i dont want to spend my time thinking about what COULD happen i would rather debate steps to take to make it MORE REALISTIC than hoping
the tigers of last year had alot more of quality young talent that this team did and they all devolped at the right time and THATS why they win not because its their time or they are this years magic team--
teams win for a reason tell me what reason we have to think we will hold the best record next year?
by ksucubbie on Aug 24, 2006 7:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because...
Yes, sure, let's debate it. Let's do it reasonably, without condescending, without sarcasm, and without accusations toward each other.
That's not too much to ask, is it?
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 7:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
do you realize that this team
thats no joke
and it would take a helluva lot of moves to turn that into 70 plus or however many the tigers have at this point
by ksucubbie on Aug 24, 2006 7:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
90 losses? Hell they could lose 100
I think we should have a rational, civil look at our likely set of players who will be remaining on the Cubs for '07. We then can match those players with their projected '07 Win Share. Once we do this, we can take the expected budget less the likely current roster commitment and match that against the free agent market for '07 Win Share/Price.
Does this sound like an exercise BCB would like to participate in? The community can even project '07 stats for current Cubs if you like. I'd like to just show you all, we aren't here to belittle or make fun of you all. We just think a dose of realism in our fandom, would be good for everyone.
What do you think?
by Santos Sorrow on Aug 24, 2006 8:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do you figure...
that 05 team won 79 games. If you extrapolate that team's talent when adding a big bat and two pitchers and a hopefully healthy Lee, how is winning 10 more games so ridiculously farfetched.
The prospective 07 team would be better than the 05 team at almost every position. You have D Lee and Ramirez and Barrett, but Izturis > Neifi (who played most of the season) Murton or prospective big bat is far > the joke of Dubois and Hollandsworth, JP > CP and Lawton and company and JJ > Burnitz offensively (although his throwing arm is still a joke. If the big bat plays second instead of left field then he is > Hairston/Walker.
What is your rebuttal?
I didn't feel like considering it, but very importantly, adding two solid pitchers would also make the starting staff > the 05 staff, and there is no question that next year's bullpen will be better than that travesty.
by Thelonious on Aug 24, 2006 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well let's put this...
P.S. What is up with your username anyway?
by santo for prez on Aug 24, 2006 8:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Futile effort
"Win Shares are a great player comparison tool. I like using them for Hall of Fame discussions, or MVP arguments. Also, they're good for contract evaluations. Conversely, they're not well-suited for evaluating a player's true talent, so they're also not good for forecasting a player's or team's future performance.
by Jeff Pico on Aug 24, 2006 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
Granted, statistics CAN be useful for certain purposes -- we all wish that a certain Cub manager would pay more attention to OBP -- but burying your head in WARP and PECOTA and those things, isn't going to tell you how to build a winning team.
That said, sure, I'll start a reasonable debate about how to put together a winner, not only for next year, but for many years to come.
That's what we all want. Right?
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 9:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reasonable debate?
by Santos Sorrow on Aug 24, 2006 9:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
While I agree with Al...
by santo for prez on Aug 24, 2006 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
PECOTA
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again, you confuse realism with...
And gleeful despair at that.
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 9:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Despair, no?
by Santos Sorrow on Aug 24, 2006 9:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right...
You hate the Cubs and have contempt for all Cubs's fans.
Well, lol, more power to you man, everybody loves a good villain.
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 9:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
how is this useful?
Unless you have inside information as to what the salary structure looks like, it is absolute speculation to try to construct a team. I have no problem with trying to do so, and enjoy reading posts about it. However, for you to insinuate that your method of trying to figure out how poor next year's team will play is bogus. Much like your attitude.
by jcub on Aug 25, 2006 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, Al...
They were much better than their record indicated last season and they played in a tough division. They probably would have finished in 2nd place in the NL Central ahead of the Astros had they played in the Central in '05. That's more a sign about how bad the Central is than how good the Tigers were. They weren't a good team, but they weren't bad.
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 9:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Part of that....
They were primed to have a run like this, you're right -- but no one thinks of that when looking at a 90-loss team.
Just the same way no one looked at the 1983 Cubs that way. Or the 1997 Cubs. Or the 2002 Cubs. All of whom lost 90-plus games.
Granted, all of those teams made significant player acquisitions in the following offseasons. Two of them (1984, 2003) changed managers. That's where the Cubs have to start this offseason.
Now, let's debate THAT instead of sniping at each other.
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 9:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But, Al...
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Take Verlander and Bonderman..
by santo for prez on Aug 24, 2006 7:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The
If he wants to present his disagreement, do it in the Tigers thread and say why we're not the Tigers rather than make some smartass diary in response.
It is becoming like grade school on this site; who can mock the other one the most, who can come up with the most sarcastic reply etc.
I enjoy debating with people who don't see optimism next year; but the problem is that that rarely happens because it always is broken down into insults. I post what I think, and rather than make an intelligent reply with facts, I am met with just sarcasm mocking my original statements.
by thekansasian on Aug 24, 2006 7:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you.
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well put...
Perhaps they feel it necessary as no matter how negative they are, the majority of Cubs fans always seem to find their way back to hope (which is in our DNA as Cubs's fans it seems) and perhaps they are afraid they might end up hoping a little too?
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 7:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know no
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 9:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think you can say that...
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 9:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it is important to note...
And don't say 2003, because that was disappointment, not so much disillusionment.
by Thelonious on Aug 24, 2006 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you can, Al.
We're looking at a team that will likely have to improve 25 games to definitely get into the playoffs. 25-game improvements don't happen very often.
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 10:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you're talking about a playoff lock...
There is absolutely no way that the Cubs will be a playoff lock next year, but it has a definite chance of happening. With two or three smart moves, we will be just as much of a contender in the NL Central as any other team.
by Thelonious on Aug 24, 2006 10:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have no problem with negitivity, but
by jcub on Aug 25, 2006 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was being hyperbolic...
You missed the point.
Point being is that people can bury the Cubs for next year or for the next fifty years, it makes no difference to me.
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No problems here prez...
The Tigers were a flat out bad baseball team last year, they made few moves in the offseason, stuck with their youth, changed managers, and are now where they are.
Does it happen everytime? Of course not. For every Detroit Tigers team that busts out you get about a dozen Pittsburgh Pirates teams who change managers, roll with youth, and lose 90+ games again.
But this Cub team, with a healthy D Lee, with a couple of solid moves, with a year better Murton, with the kids improving pitching-wise, could very well turn it around next year.
Point being, you believe the kids we're bringing up have ability. I happen to agree, so it's not out of the realm of possibility at all that the Cubs can right the ship and make the postseason next year.
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 7:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And...
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could you explain...
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's just more condescension...
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 9:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gosh o golly then...
Why is it that he thinks he HAS to condescend? Does it give him that much pleasure?
I think the rest of us have better things to do.
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 9:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't know either, but
http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/front_office.jsp?c_id=bos
by jcub on Aug 25, 2006 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, he misspelled it...
by theprognosticator on Aug 26, 2006 2:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree...
No, that has no place here. Nobody can stop him from posting these kinds of diaries of course, but we sure as hell don't have to like them or sit by and idly take them.
If he has the right to post these kinds of diaries, we have the right to respond and tell him to go to hell.
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
typically people who say x or y isnt tolerated in places are the ones who shouldnt be tolerated
by ksucubbie on Aug 24, 2006 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whatever...
I'm sorry but there's no reason for anyone to post a diary explicitly intended to run down another poster for something as harmless as optimism.
It was mean-spirited and I didn't appreciate that. Why should I keep quiet when somebody is being mean for the sake of being mean?
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 6:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
very well
and like it or not the onus should be on all of us who post here to change that-- people like maddog bring great ideas and make a richer discussion
but people like you drive them away and thats a shame
by ksucubbie on Aug 24, 2006 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No one is criticizing ideas or discussion here...
Instead of bitching about this, why don't you add some of that "smart, bright commentary".
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defend Maddog on another diary...
And if all I accomplish is driving away someone who posts little more than meanspirited diaries, then I have done this blog a service.
This is a stinking turd and you should have left it alone. Defend him when he actually has a good idea, not when he does something he should regret.
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 7:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
All my ideas
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, pessimism is fine...
The Cubs are doomed. My brain agrees with you 100%. But I like to fight my brain as I don't want my brain to be right. So, I do what I must or otherwise, why watch baseball if there's no hope?
But it's meanspirited posting meant to belittle another poster who has hope for the future. That is the problem. Not being negative.
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 7:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not it at all...
In fact, I am remiss on not including Maddog's site. I haven't updated the CBA links in a while -- I'll add it.
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's becoming such
by ksucubbie on Aug 24, 2006 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In your opinion...
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 6:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re
"he knows more than that 90 % of the ppl who comment here "....in your opinion
"is one of the smartest commentators"...in your opinion....I visited the site. The site is filled with gramatical errors. I know that I make mistakes in my posts and that will happen in the high-speed blog world, but when you want to magnify your voice to everyone, then you should really take the time to do it right.
by santo for prez on Aug 24, 2006 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok
is chock full of detailed posts with FACTS not opinion and IS a worth while read
but to each his own
by ksucubbie on Aug 24, 2006 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Facts?
Maddog's site, as does every single blog in existence, has plenty of his opinions. That's his right. Just as it is for me to have mine.
You can disagree with my opinions, and I welcome fair debate and I always have.
It's the belittling and condescension I can do without.
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
it has
in some ways your a victim of your sucsess you have a broad spectrum of fans here and need to stay in the middle but need to reconize that as annyoing as relentless negativism is is the same for the other side
by ksucubbie on Aug 24, 2006 7:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It...
by thekansasian on Aug 24, 2006 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gosh, yeah, why should we expect someone
by jcub on Aug 25, 2006 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ridiculous, worthless diary...
But don't drag the rest of us down, as misguided as we may be. If we choose to find hope that perhaps this team can turn it around come 2007, for crying out loud just let us. It's one thing to disagree and think this team is doomed, but quite another to run everybody down and ridicule those who think differently than you.
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 6:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If you want to make...
by thekansasian on Aug 24, 2006 6:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Disingenuous
"I want to jump up and down when I think about that `84 team, and I want to cry when I think about Steve Garvey. That ball Tim Flannery hit through Leon Durham's legs, how can that happen? You know how? Because that's baseball. That's what makes this game great. It happens every day. The impossible is possible. The unbelievable is believable. That's why I love baseball."
by Jeff Pico on Aug 24, 2006 7:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Well done...
Don't forget the 2002 Cubs and the 2003 Cubs.
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look...
This post was intended to be funny and nothing more than that. There was no cut downs of the author who wrote much of the original wording to this. I said what I had to about his diary right off the bat. I said nothing else in that thread.
To be quite honest with you all, what irritated me the most about Santo for Prez's diary was his claims that those who disagreed with him were Cub-haters as he has already referrred to me in this diary. Personally, I don't care. I know how much the Cubs mean to me and how much the game of baseball means and I don't have to prove that to anyone else.
This was merely an attempt to be funny making light of a thread that caused much argument earlier today. Perhaps it's one I shouldn't have done. Perhaps I should not have added the little commentary I did. Perhaps, just maybe, this was much needed to show that not only are the 2006 Cubs going to have a similar record to the Tigers a year ago, but also to one of the worst teams in the game a year ago.
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 7:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You know...
There are ways to do this without being sarcastic and condescending. I know you were trying to be funny. It didn't work.
I don't think ANY of us here, or on any other site, are "Cub-haters". Really, why invest that much emotion in a team if you hate them?
Yes, it's true that the Cubs aren't going to be that much better than the Devil Rays this year. Is it possible that the 2007 DEVIL RAYS will contend? Sure it is. Is it LIKELY? No, it's not.
But that's why we start each and every spring with renewed hope. It may be squashed in a few weeks, or it may last all year. But as was posted several posts above, that IS why we all love baseball so much.
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I give each Cubs team
that being said, it's awfully darn hard to look at what Hendry has to do (with Hendry's skills nonetheless) and turn this team around. First of all, it's a team that shouldn't be turned around, but should work on promoting the youngsters and seeing what they have down the road. Of course this won't be done so that's a moot point really.
But how does this team get from where we are to where we want to go? Short of an increase in payroll up to the $130 million + mark I just don't see it. It's not there.
Sure, there's always the possibility that you get 3 or 4 career years from places you weren't expecting it and everybody stays healthy and somehow, almost magically, you contend. is this really what we're reduced to hoping for though? Hope that we can get lucky? Short of the greatest amount of luck that I've seen in this game this team won't come close to contending next season.
How about we build a team that can legitimately contend? Let's take as long as it takes to do it, but let's do it right. I'm sick and tired of this patch it up and send it back out stuff we see every single year. It's not working. The Cubs will never be an annual contender if they keep doing this. None of the teams that have contended on an annual basis throughout the history of this game have done it the way the Cubs are. It won't work.
We may get lucky from time to time, but I'd much rather have a 5-10 year window where we're contending each and every season than this 1 out of 10 years stuff.
Just do it right. Take as long as it needs, but do it right.
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 7:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's an intelligent post...
On another note, as I have made about 4-5 posts on this thread condemning the practice on belittling another poster, I realize that I too sometimes get caught up and may make a sarcastic remark or two. I apologize and hopefully everyone can get along and talk intelligently.
by thekansasian on Aug 24, 2006 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's my question.
Now -- let's take this as a starting point for debate. Let's say you're the GM. What's the VERY FIRST THING YOU DO?
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 7:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wrote
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 9:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maddog
I look forward to your posts here. I agree some, I disagree some. You are ane intelligent baseball mind.
This was beneath you.
by smwojoz on Aug 24, 2006 7:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
ksucubbie...
If you take Bonderman and Verlander out of that rotation, trade Rogers to the Dodgers (or where ever). Put Ordonez on the DL for most of the season and let me know how the Tigers do.
by santo for prez on Aug 24, 2006 8:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
This was a bad team
Are you comparng Wood/Prior to Bonderman/Verlander? If you are then you would be way off this year. Even when healthy the "horses" have sucked.
Just imagine if 1-7 Prior could have pitched all year.
by pwhalen on Aug 24, 2006 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's correct.
But those guys may never be like that again. It's time to move on.
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Honestly, even if we get the Prior of '05
Prior was overall pretty good in 2005, if we could just get that guy back, we'd be a much better ballclub.
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 9:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
by cubbiejulie on Aug 24, 2006 9:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My 2 cents
How would a team with one new big bat, and 2 new starting pitchers (one being top notch, the other being solid) be such a farfetched contender. And for that matter, how is that so different than the 2003 Cubs. Realistically, that would mean 3 players with 30 plus homers, and optimistically it could mean two or three guys with more than 40 homers. And besides, pitching is far and away more important, and barring injury that would give us Zambrano and two FA quality starters. You don't think that out of Prior, Miller, and this veritable cadre of young guys that we have couldn't make up two decent starters between them? What exactly is your reasoning? Even most good teams don't have aces for their 4 and 5 starters, and with that large of a pool to draw from, it seems almost farfetched that two of them wouldn't be decent.
That isn't a guarantee of success by any means in that we always have to worry about injuries etc., but young guys typically get better, and a solid pitching staff always makes teams look far better. The Tigers are only 10th in runs scored (I remember when we were like seventh a few years ago, and Cubs fans were complaining), so I really don't think that a good pitching staff anchored by a continuously maturing Z couldn't keep the Cubs in contention.
Obviously this is all contingent upon 1. a new manager/coaching staff...2. those 3 major FA aquisititions....and 3. health, but if those things fall into place, and the stars align this isn't exactly a quixotic dream here.
I get the feeling that being that pessimistic in the face of poor reasoning is so popular because it is a safe position. If you stay pessimistic and the Cubs fail, you can say "I told you so" and "I knew it" in a vindicated manner. If the Cubs do well and win, you will obviously be too happy to care about your predictions. The optimists here (when optimism isn't ridiculous and has logic behind it) are the ones taking a chance. You have to make yourself vulnerable to leave yourself open to disappointment.
by Thelonious on Aug 24, 2006 8:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd also like to point out...
Remember, before this season I remember writers actually laughing about how terrible the Reds are, and predicting a basement finish, and yet here they are nearing september at the top of the wildcard. You can be a flawed team and still compete
by Thelonious on Aug 24, 2006 8:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That last paragraph, I think...
On another part of this topic -- it doesn't take a very good team to contend in 2006. It may in 2007. We simply do not know that yet.
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 8:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's just not likely
Some of these positions can be filled cheap (Murton, Marshall), But do the math and then let me know how they are going to add 3 good free agents and fill the other spots while still coming in under budget.
Yes they might contend if if if and the stars align. It would be better if they were less worried about patching holes in hopes of a miracle next year, and more inclind toward building with a plan.
by pwhalen on Aug 24, 2006 8:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You didn't read what I said...
by Thelonious on Aug 24, 2006 8:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are right...
by santo for prez on Aug 24, 2006 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But
Furthermore, we can't ignore the fact that the Cubs have not signed an elite free agent since Andre Dawson in 1987 when he handed the Cubs a blank check and told them to fill in his salary. This is a weak free agent market and the Astros are going to be the richest of all teams in baseball and they happen to be in the same division. Whatever 2nd tier players the Cubs sign, the Astros will do more. They have more money, more incentive to win, and a more competent general manager.
The Cardinals lose all 4 of their starting pitchers and will most certainly be signing one of the best available as they went out and tried hard to get AJ Burnett this past offsason. with 4 free agents in that rotation, they won't fail this time around.
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 9:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Babysteps...
IMO, make a couple moves in the off-season, more power at 2B, solid starter and an innings-eater. Be competitive for a few months (maybe even better), then make a key trade or two during the season.
by santo for prez on Aug 24, 2006 9:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha
by Thelonious on Aug 24, 2006 9:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What they're doing now
Obviously if you play 8 rookies across the diamond, you're lucky if two pan out, but then you know which areas you need to fill with outside resources. Then you bring up some other guys, or maybe give some another look and after another year you fill some other holes with free agents.
This is EXACTLY what Detroit did and they started working on it in 2003 when they lost 119 games. Anytime you see a team rise to the top quickly, it's going to be through homegrown youngster who CAN produce (Murton does not qualify here...unfortunately--not yet anyway), veteran free agents, a deep bench, pitching and defense.
The problem with your method is that you're plugging some holes and ignoring others while still trying to contend. This means you can't give the youngsters the look they deserve to see if they can show some progression. You're then forced to play some veteran like Neifi over Cedeno even though it has no future benefit to your team whatsoever and at the end of the season you're right back where you were a year ago.
Not to mention that you're still asking for a great deal of luck to get your where you want to go. You need that career year, you need to stay healthy because you don't have the depth you need, and a major injury is crippling which can result in ill-advised trades.
It's a dead end to longterm success. No team with a moderate payroll has been able to sustain success this way.
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 9:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, you're probably right
by Thelonious on Aug 24, 2006 9:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Cardinals
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And yet...
by Thelonious on Aug 24, 2006 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with that...
He is being paid superstar money for half a season of performance.
...is that you're assuming the Cubs will improve next season, and nobody else in the division will.
This is just my opinion, of course, but I believe the Brewers are poised to take over the NL Central crown next season.
by VS on Aug 24, 2006 10:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is quite possible...
by Thelonious on Aug 24, 2006 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Astros
if it was like last season when they didn't have much to spend, then I'd say the Cubs had a shot, but the Astros are better than us now and they're going to be better than us next season no matter what we do. They've got more money... A LOT MORE MONEY!
The Cardinals have more than us as well.
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 10:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've read the exact opposite about the birds...
That being said, the Cardinals haven't made a big splash in free agency for awhile now, as they tend to pick up guys off the scrap heap (Carpenter, Suppan) and turn their careers around.
But perhaps they're due.
The Astros on the other hand will have Pettitte, Bagwell, AND Clemens off the books. That's a ton of money right there. Remains to be seen where they decide to spend it, but they will have it to spend and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Soriano and/or Carlos Lee playing for the Stros next year considering how poorly they've hit the baseball this time around.
But the Astros do have a number of gaping holes around the diamond and other than Hunter Pence, little in the way of homegrown talent to fill it with.
Which makes the possibility of the Astros pulling an Omar Minaya-esque offseason quite likely.
Unless Drayton McClane decides to pucker up tighter than a drum (which he has been accused of doing in the past) and pare back payroll instead.
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Astros GM
But, to the point, I fear this year like most years, we'll look to patch our holes rather than build a solid organization. I don't want a team that's ecstatic over being a wild card. I want one that's disappointed at losing in the WS.
by tharr on Aug 25, 2006 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couldn't agree more...
by theprognosticator on Aug 25, 2006 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they
How are they going to get one big bat and two starters for 20 million, with money left over for 11 other players? Even at the minimum those 11 players cost about 4 million. That's 16 left for three top players. How can that happen?
I read what you said, but it doesn't work. This is a team which supposedly can't pay for the parking garage they promised to build. Do you really expect a significant salary increase?
by pwhalen on Aug 24, 2006 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unreasonable
by Thelonious on Aug 24, 2006 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What???
They don't need ANY bullpen work.
Based on a 12 pitcher staff they need seven relievers. They 4 signed for next year already. Dempster (5.3m), Howry (4), Eyre (4), and Rusch (3.25). They need three more pitchers to fill out the pen. If they keep they others they have, those people will cost them money above the 72 million they have committed for next year. Probably about 1.5 more.
You are being completely unrealistic, and misevaluating this team if you really think they need 3 starters and 3 bullpen arms and 5 guys off the bench. Come back when you aren't talking fantasy.
Do you understand what I am saying now? If they resign Pierre, that's 7-8 million (18.5 now left). Soto, just over 300k. 4 more bench players at least two mil. 16 left. Murton 400k. 15.6 left.
Show me how you get a big bat and 3-4 starters for 15.6 million (include young cheap guys if you want), and then look at the lineup and tell me you really think they can contend.
by pwhalen on Aug 24, 2006 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously, I'm saying that they need to spend...
by Thelonious on Aug 24, 2006 10:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus, you are embellishing some of these numbers..
I don't see how it is completely impossible to fathom that they might raise the total payroll too. The Bluejays went out and spent...the Mets went out and spent. They are now dealing with a disgruntled fanbase. I'm not saying they WILL, but I'm saying that it is a distinct possibility.
by Thelonious on Aug 24, 2006 10:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Go read the earlier diary on 2007 salary...
I'm not too sure why you feel the need to be so condescending, because as of right now, it appears that you are the one that are unclear on the amount of money available in the coffer.
by Thelonious on Aug 24, 2006 10:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The payroll
After raises for Zambrano and Ohman, re-signing Pierre if they go that way, and adding in the guys like Murton, Aardsman and Novoa who make league minimum PLUS the non-active members on the 40-man roster who earn $50,000 per year you're looking at $12-15 million MAX that this team has left to spend.
It's not a pretty picture.
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 11:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
2007 Cubs Payroll
http://www.thechicagonationalleagueballclub.com/article/archives/2006/08/01/707
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 11:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If that is really the case...
by Thelonious on Aug 24, 2006 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The numbers in that diary
What's more likely to happen is that the cubs and Z will agree on a multi-year deal, which in the end, $9 million may be what he gets in 2007 though Hendry doesn't like to backload contracts. Z will get more than Derrek Lee got. 5/70 is a good bet. If Z wants to risk staying healthy next season on going into free agency after '08 he'd be in the 7/100 range for a team like the Yanks or Sox.
he'd be the best starting pitcher with the most upside who hasn't even entered his prime in a very long time. If Z thinks he can stay healthy he would be wise to turn the Cubs down and enter free agency looking for more money, which he'd surely get.
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 11:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why is there talk
I'm looking for moves that point toward a World Championship, and does anyone honestly believe that Hendry is the man to make those moves? That's the bottom line.
The Cubs have a G.M. who has taken a team that was five outs away from the W.S. three years ago to this. And I think he is in way over his head.
by Peoria Matt on Aug 24, 2006 8:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree, Matt.
I don't see a point in building a team that "could" contend. Let's build a team when the youngsters are ready to be productive around a core group of youngsters with several free agents mixed in that WILL contend not just for the wild card, but be legitimate contenders for the World Series. year after year after year.
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 9:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Remember this.
Yes, winning the World Series is the goal. It ought to be the goal of all thirty teams. But assuming you have put together a team good enough to make the playoffs, once they begin you start with an 0-0 record, and sometimes, the best team doesn't win.
Just ask the 2001 Mariners. Or ask the Yankees of the last four years, who are supposedly built this way.
Make the playoffs. That's a laudable goal. Contenders do this. Build a contender. That's step one.
by Al on Aug 24, 2006 9:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, Al.
by Maddog on Aug 24, 2006 10:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think...
by Al on Aug 25, 2006 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are plenty of reasons
without (ok, maybe a little, but it's harmless) name calling. I've given up on most of the others because of their apparent hatred of the Cubs. That's fine. Love it. Go for it. If you even try to post a differing opinion on some other blogs -- you are ridiculed and insulted.
I commend the writers on the quality of posting that's found here -- some of it brutally frank, but without malice. That's what makes BCB interesting, and a great read.
by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Aug 24, 2006 9:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree completely...
A lot of other blogs just seem like spewfests of venom and any other POV is laughed out of there.
by theprognosticator on Aug 24, 2006 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My only comment here
Definitely a lot more valid and worthy of discussion than some of the Miguel Cabrera deals that were posted over the summer.
by rlpete on Aug 24, 2006 9:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If you had told me
What does that have to do with the 2007 cubs? Absolutely nothing, which is the exact amount the 2006 Tigers will have with the 2007 Cubs, or the 2005 tigers and the 2006 cubs.
Why does there need to be a conversation here every day about how "anythng is possible", I think everyone knows that. I gues its because the management can't/doesn't do anything that gives more of a chance then that, and people need to justify their fandom or why to watch this year.
Just for funsies, how many teams had a simliar record to the 2005 tigers and didn't have a great year the next?
no apologies for grammatical mistakes. and i booed myself the whole time I wrote this. stay classy bcb.
by mike bornemann on Aug 25, 2006 12:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
lol...
by theprognosticator on Aug 25, 2006 12:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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