Zambrano's Cy Young chances

by helen on Sep 27, 2006 1:30 AM CDT Comment 18 comments

Well, tonight's events have greatly increased Z's chances for winning the Cy Young. Here's what happened:

Chris Carpenter took the loss tonight for St. Louis (vs. the Padres). His ERA went up to 3.09. Carpenter is now 15-8.

Brandon Webb got a no decision against the Giants. His ERA is 2.88. The interesting thing here is that Webb was taken out for the bottom of the ninth in a tie game after throwing 86 pitches. I was watching, and the announcers mentioned it was a cool, pleasant night. I have no idea why Melvin took Webb out, but sure enough Mo Alou homered to end the game in the bottom of the 9th. Webb is now 16-7.

Brad Penny has been mentioned, mostly on the basis of his W-L (16-9) but with an ERA over 4 he is not regarded as a front runner. I saw his last two starts and they weren't pretty. (One was the four back-to-back homers game.)

Z, for comparison's sake, is 16-6 with a 3.43 ERA.

Webb is, I think, the favorite to win the Cy Young. However, each man has one more start to go, and it's possible that these last starts will determine the Cy Young. Another factor may be strikeouts, but I'm not sure how highly the Cy Young voters value the different stats.

Poll

What are Zambrano's chances of winning the Cy Young?

Zero. It's all practice for next year.

7 votes

Small. But we're Cub fans, we live on hope and water.

24 votes

Good, but Webb's got to falter in his last start.

8 votes

Excellent. The voters know Z would have 20 wins with a decent team.

2 votes

It's a lock. The voters are Cub fans.

2 votes

43 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Comments

Minimal...

He needs a CG shutout...possibly a no-no to win the award.

It is an interesting scenario though...How can they give it to a guy who is faltering when his team needs him down the stretch? And Brandon Webb is similar to Z, crappy team & good numbers. Look for Oswalt to take it down if he gets another great start and Houston does the unthinkable.

Extreme hopes are born from extreme misery. -Bertrand Russell

by thekansasian on Sep 27, 2006 1:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I disagree.

If Z wins his last start, he will lead the league in wins. (Also, in winning percentage at 17-6)

If he also winds up leading the league in K's, that might do it. Those are the categories that seem to mesmerize the voters.

FWIW, that'd make Z 17-3 since May 1.

by Al on Sep 27, 2006 4:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree....

What mesmerizes voters is being on a team that wins. Is it absolutely necessary? No, but it certainly helps. And being on a last place team is almost death to Carlos.

I think he needs a no-no.

by ontheuptick on Sep 27, 2006 7:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Small chance.

If Webb loses his last start and Z wins, it becomes much more likely. But I don't think Z leading the league in strikeouts is going to sway any voters, considering he also leads the league in walks.

by jamie on Sep 27, 2006 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

well....

If Z wins his last start, he will lead the league in wins. (Also, in winning percentage at 17-6)
.......and that's on a horrendous team, no less!

Unfortunately, as much as I'd like to see Z win it, I think it will be tough. Unless his year is so much better than anyone else that year, playing for a last place team does hurt. Andre Dawson had an unbelievable year compared to the rest of the field in '87 to win the MVP. I don't know how much ahead of the field Roger C. was when he won the Cy Young on a last-place Blue Jays team. While Z has been solid, his numbers are similar to the other guys in the running, whose teams are having better years. Having said that, I also see that Webb is also now playing for a last place team-albeit not as horrendous as the Cubs.

Time will tell....though Z's walks have got to hurt....

by LuisSalazar on Sep 27, 2006 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right about wins

But if you think about it, it really doesn't make a lot of sense. Isn't it more impressive to rack up a lot of wins with an otherwise bad team behind you? I mean, if Carlos had been pitching for the Mets or something, he might have ended up with 20+ wins. His number of wins as a percentage of total team wins will also be higher than anyone else's.

But I'm sure the voters don't consider it that way.

by SuperContext on Sep 27, 2006 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe Webb has one more start...

And if he wins he'd be 17-7 with an ERA well below Z's, and better peripherals.

Carpenter may have just pitched himself out of Cy contention with his last two starts.

I think if Webb pitches strong on Sunday, he'll get it.

hhhhiftqdaa

by theprognosticator on Sep 27, 2006 4:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Webb is more "likable"

and I think Zambrano's reputation will affect some voters. I laughed out loud when he imitated Brandon Phillips' home run trot around the mound in his last start. (Note to Z: Phillips looked exactly like Jacque Jones going around second.) But it was a reminder that Z has been a hothead in the past. I don't think many voters will give Zambrano "credit" for having struggled early in the season after pitching in the WBC.

I'll guess the "magic number" at 5 ER. If Webb gives up that many more ER than Z in their last starts, Z wins. If not, Webb wins.

by zambranofan on Sep 27, 2006 9:44 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I still think...

... it comes down to wins. If Z leads the league in wins and K's, he'll win. Those are the categories the voters look at.

by Al on Sep 27, 2006 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are you

telling me that one win will make up for the fact that Webb has a much better era?

by luv4cubs2 on Sep 27, 2006 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ha yeah, even though its one of the worst stats...

...in baseball. Remember in 03 when Russ Ortiz led the league in wins but his other numbers were horrible, something like a 3.88 ERA, not a ton of strikeouts or peripherals to speak of. But he still got attention and a couple votes for leading the league in wins. Carlos has a good ERA and I do think the strikeouts are a sexy stat for the voters, I agree with Al, if Z wins his next start and can lower his ERA to around or below 3.30 then he'll take home the award.

by kylejo on Sep 27, 2006 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another winner...

... who didn't really deserve it but got it because he led the league in wins was a guy named Steve Stone, who won 25 for the 1980 Orioles. He wasn't in the top 10 in ANY other significant category except games started.

I'm not saying Z deserves to win just for leading the league in K's and wins -- only that those are the categories that mesmerize the voters.

by Al on Sep 27, 2006 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I was voting

I'd vote Brandon Webb. I love Carlos Zambrano to death, but there is simply no denying the season Webb has had. Or the value to his team.

by BlueBooHoo on Sep 27, 2006 11:48 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah, its hard to discount webb

but i think the voters have to take into account the fact that webbs numbers increased astronomically after the infield defense behind him became a lot better. webb on a team with average defense probably wouldnt have the stats zambrano does...but at the same time its hard to think hypothetically like that.

by kylejo on Sep 27, 2006 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs