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BAs top 10 Cubs prospects

Just got my copy of the prospect handbook from Baseball America in the mail.  Since no one else has posted anything on this I figured I would list the top 10 plus a few other nuggets I thought were intersting from it.  Here goes...

#1 Felix Pie.  Big surprise here- NOT!  See the other ten thousand posts about CF if you want to know more about him.

#2  D Veal.  States he is a possible #2 but amazingly they don't seem 100% convinced despite the fantastic stats he put up last year- which BTW were even better after he moved up a level at midseason.  

#3  T Colvin.  Says he has a nice all around game with room to grow since he was "young" for being a college draftee.  Compares to Steve Finley and Shawn Green- would be nice if could reach that level!!!

#4  J Samardzija.  Amazingly BA went out on a limb on this one and they look really smart now considering the news that he will play baseball full time (announced just yesterday).  They say he may end up in the pen if his secondary pitches don't improve- this was more likely if he split his time between 2 sports.  They think he could really shoot thru the system.

#5.  S Gallagher.  Say his fastball improved last year to 90-94 thus his ceiling went from a #4/5 to possible a #3.  There biggest concern was after his AA promotion he overthrew and got away from what had made him so successful.  His walk rate went up noticibly but he still managed to put up a sub 3 era.  My personal opinion is they still seem to be selling him short.  BA typically falls in love with players with "tools" and often overlooks the results the players actually obtain.  

#6.  E Patterson.  See all the other posts about 2nd base for more on EP.  Basically they say he is still the 2nd basemen of the future for the cubs but is probably a half season or so away.  Did mention they played him some in instructional league in CF- wow that would be weird if he made it to the Cubs as a CF!

#7  S Moore.  "ultimately will serve Chicago as a versatile reserve or as trade bait".  Obviously Ramirez is the 3rd basemen for the Cubs so Moore will have to learn to play elsewhere or go somewhere else.

#8.  R Harvey.  Still undecided on if this guy is a bust or is just waiting to bust out.  My guess is the former.  He will be in AA this season and his sub 300 OBP will likely plummet even further IMHO.

#9.  C Huseby.  Perfect example of BA prefering tools as Huseby pitched only 17 innings in the rookie league with only mediocre results (5+ era, less than a K/IP, and only a 2 to 1 K:BB).  Say he was throwing 90-95 mph just 15 months after TJ surgery.  Should find out if he was worth all the money the cubs threw at him this season (1.3 million as an 11th rd pick- basically they bought him since he would have been an early rd pick prior to getting hurt and the cubs had no 2nd-4th pick).  Thus, it was a gamble to replace the picks they lost.

#10.  M Pawelek.  BA really seems to have soured on this guys potential.  Saying he now pitches at 88-92 (before it was 95) and thus has only a chance for 3 solid "average" pitches (therefore his ceiling isn't nearly as high).  Somewhat surprising to me considering his stats are still quite good and supposedly he showed up last spring in really poor shape.  Not surprisingly, his season numbers were unimpressive at the start but from the midpoint on he was consistently good to great (including a 7 IP playoff win).  Supposedly he learned a lesson and this next season will give us a better feel for what his true ceiling is.  

OTHER NOTES...

  • Cubs system was rated #18 out of 30 now.  This is the 5 yr in a row it has gone down since it was #1 in 2002 (1, 3, 7, 10, 15, and now 18)
  • Grade of C for impact players in system and grade of C for Depth.  I disagree with the depth part- IMO I think the Cubs depth is really its true strength and is certainly in the top tier in all of baseball.  OF is the only position that really lacks a lot of depth.  Clearly pitching has been a focus of the organization and it shows with how many guys they have listed- both RH and LH.
  • BA calls Grant Johnson a bust already.
  • No mention at all about Brownlie thus we can classify him with Johnson.  
  • Dopiriak #12.  Will be in AA with Harvey.  Maybe 1 of the 2 of them will figure it out since they are both boom or bust type prospects.  
  • R Cherry #16.  Say he would have been lost if not added to 40 man roster.  Likely bullpen guy at some point next year.  
  • Great book if you are a dork like me and like reading about prospects.  Really great for fantasy baseball since they show all minor league stats for each player.  Can easily look up a player who was just called up and get a feel for if he can really help your team or is just putting together a hot streak until the league figures him out.  Anyhow- i hope you like the info...

    This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

    0 recs  |  Comment 23 comments

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    I look forward to catching many of these guys
    down here in the Southern League. As the season goes on I'll post pics and stats of games.
    At least we didn't sign Batista...

    by stelmodad on Jan 21, 2007 7:34 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

    They greatly overrate Colvin, IMO
    A 21-year old with a 800ish OPS in Class A and little discipline doesn't strike me as all that special.  He seems more like a 4th OF to me.

    by VS on Jan 21, 2007 12:21 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

    I would...
    ... give the guy more than half a season as a pro before I made that judgment.

    If he's still at that level after a full year in A ball (likely at Daytona), then yeah, maybe that's right.

    Too early to tell, IMO.

    "[BCB] is much better than... well, everything." -- gravedigger, January 21, 2007

    by Al on Jan 21, 2007 12:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

    The thing I remember about Colvin...
    Is that the Cubs feel he is a good all-around player with no great outstanding area. kind of a "toolsy" player... but instead of someone like Cedeno who is fast, quick, strong, etc. who may or may not learn baseball, basically a bust or all-star...

    Anyway, they like Colvin because he does many things very well, fielding, hitting, etc. although nothing great. They felt with his college development, they were getting a solid 3rd OF that would go along well with two better guys. Which, is a reach for the first round, but they felt he was the best sure thing (even if they felt it was sure to be average) they could get before the 5th round.

    They then made up for it by taking a huge question mark, both in developed talent and dedication, when they got Samardzija.

    They got a 2nd rounder (Shark) and a 3rd rounder (Colvin) in the 1st and 5th rounds. Not a bad average.

    EINSTEIN!

    by tyger1147 on Jan 21, 2007 1:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

    Does this make any sense?
    I think it does, but my train of thought might be different.
    EINSTEIN!

    by tyger1147 on Jan 21, 2007 1:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

    Yes.
    it made sense.

    by helen on Jan 21, 2007 7:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

    Blast from the past
    The Cubs top 10 prosects from BA,3/04/01: 1. Corey Patterson 2.Juan Cruz 3.Hee Seop Choi 4. Ben Christensen 5. Carlos Zambrano 6. Luis Montanez 7. Dave Kelton 8. Bobby Hill 9. John Webb 10. Nate Frese
    One star (Zambrano) one good major leaguer (Patterson), some roster fillers (Choi, Cruz,Hill). Is the current crop better?

    by BillV on Jan 21, 2007 8:20 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

    I wonder what you'd find...
    ... if you looked at ANY team's BA top ten from six years ago.

    Would you get much better than that?

    "[BCB] is much better than... well, everything." -- gravedigger, January 21, 2007

    by Al on Jan 21, 2007 8:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

    Something to keep in mind...
    ...is that while Hill and Choi did not turn out to be great players (no matter the reason), Hill was turned into Aramis Ramirez, and Choi into Derek Lee.

    The farm system is just as important for that purpose.

    PTBNL!

    by gravedigger on Jan 21, 2007 8:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

    I'd say that is nice, but not as important
    I sure would love having impact players making league minimum right now. While I agree that using your farm system as trade bait is infinitely important, I think having talented young players is the most important part of the winning formula.
    Baby, you got a stew goin'

    by Thelonious on Jan 21, 2007 9:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

    My thing with Baseball America is that..
    Baseball America goes more off of scouts and ceiling rather than statistical production and scouting.

    I'd rather hear about how a guy was progressing well than this guy has a high ceiling.

    That being said Tyler Colvin has made strides in his game, at best he's Steve Finley, the Cubs went very safe with him in the first round.  There were much better players in that round.. Hank Conger was taken after him... I would much rather have Conger.  Daniel Bard another college pitcher was taken after him.. I'm not 100% sure but I believe that a talented RHP from the Marlins.. was taken after him as well the name escapes me in the moment.

    by cubsfan2883 on Jan 21, 2007 11:40 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

    The guy...
    ... I was hoping the Cubs would take was Travis Snider, a HS outfielder who was taken with the next pick by the Blue Jays.

    Snider hit .325/.412/.567 in 194 AB in the Appalachian League after signing.

    "[BCB] is much better than... well, everything." -- gravedigger, January 21, 2007

    by Al on Jan 22, 2007 4:26 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

    I'm glad that for once they didn't take...
    a high schooler. Just to get away from that mind-set. Too many if's. My post-draft reasoning on Colvin and Samardzija (gosh, this is getting easy) is above about Colvin. I'm happy with what they did.
    EINSTEIN!

    by tyger1147 on Jan 22, 2007 7:47 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

    One thing...
    ... I think the Cubs have done in the past with college players is move them too slowly through the system, with the result being that they are 25 or 26 before they get a major league shot.

    It appears they're not going to do this with Colvin and Samardzija, as long as they can handle the next level, it seems they'll get their shot. This is a good thing.

    "[BCB] is much better than... well, everything." -- gravedigger, January 21, 2007

    by Al on Jan 22, 2007 8:58 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

    "Down on the Farm" seminar
    Oneri Fleita talked about changing up the workout schedule for our pitchers in spring training due to the rash of injuries. He said instead of doing thier throwing in the morning then thier running and fielding and back to pitching batting practice, they changed the routine to running and fielding in the morning then thier throwing and straight to pitching batting practice. So instead of warming the arm up, letting it cool down while running and fielding then warming it up again they will run and field before doing any throwing. Donald Veal didn't seem to pleased that he would now have to start work at 7:00am, but at least it seems that the Cubs have realized the negative trend of injured pitchers.

    Both Donald Veal and Eric Patterson seemed like personable guys who genuinely want to win, Eric cracked a few jokes and was asked a few times about his brother, someone actually called him Corey.

    Other than that it was mostly stock answers, although the impression I got from Oneri Fleita and Tim Wilken was that Felix Pie isn't ready yet. There was some talk of the "Moneyball" philosophies, the positives and the negatives.
    Mostly it was just a throwing around of names throughout the minor league system.

    Jessica, it was nice to meet you after the seminar.

    "Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

    by Imtrejo on Jan 22, 2007 12:20 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

    My question for Mr. Fleita/Wilken
    What did you see in Tyler Colvin that you think no one else really saw?  And what made you take Colvin over say Hank Conger who although was a HS'er had more power potential than Colvin did.  Plus plays a better position (C) than Colvin does (LF).

    by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2007 1:57 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

    Nice to meet you too
    Thougtht it was pretty interesting FYI.
    It came up in SEVERAL sessions that Pie is NOT ready so he
    is NOT a CF  option this year.
    I love the ballpark. I love the city. I love the fans. Aside from how we've played this year, there's nothing not to like about Chicago." Greg Maddux 7/29/06

    by jessica on Jan 22, 2007 5:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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