Hughes could go back to having the shoulder injuries that plagued him early in his minor league career and we could never hear from him again

you just dont know. Prior's a perfect example of this

I could very well be wrong about this.

However, I look at the teams with the kinds of prospects we would want and should want in exchange for Zambrano, and I believe, for now at any rate, that these teams will demonstrate more reluctance than they might have in the past, especially now that this nutso free agency period has played out and mediocrity has been so handsomely rewarded.

It's one thing when it is mused and projected, and quite another when it comes to fruition, and I believe that this offseason has spooked a number of teams, including the traditionally big-spending ones. And I think from here forward, until the market retracts a bit, many of these teams will balk at giving up their prized youngsters, even for a pitcher like Zambrano.

You make a good point about a trade that would include a window to re-sign Zambrano. However, I'm not so convinced a ton of teams will be looking to give Zambrano precisely what he wants. The general consensus around baseball, from what I've read, is that what Barry Zito got was fucking batshit, and that no pitcher is worth risking 8 years over. Of course, there's always one team that ends up throwing caution to the wind, but would they reveal themselves this early in the process? For a team to go to that length for Zambrano, trading their absolute best prospects on top of offering 8/140, I believe they would have to be desperate, and I don't sense that kind of desperation or need from the kinds of teams that have the quality of prospects we should demand in return for Z.  

As the season progresses, need should open up with at least two or three, but then the possibility of a long-term deal being reached is likely precluded, especially if Zambrano refuses to negotiate once the season starts like he said he would, which would likely shrink the Cubs return by quite a bit.

However, in the meantime, it doesn't hurt to shop him around and just see what's out there for him. Could be that my argument is specious and that teams will give up the world for Zambrano, but for now anyway, I just don't see it. Earlier in the offseason perhaps, but not from here going forward.

And to a point I disagree about all the teams you mentioned being heavily involved in the trade market for Zambrano.

The Yanks are out unless they want to part with Hughes or the Cubs decide to take less than Hughes (and they shouldn't). The Yanks would obviously be major players for Zambrano after the season, but they also have the reputation and the money to back it up for being the team that almost ALWAYS outbids everyone else. Basically, they can be arrogant enough not to trade for Zambrano, and be confident enough that they will be able to beat any other contract offer out there next offseason. They also have the luxury of being major players in the Clemens race, and if something were to go wrong in ST, I believe they will go hard after Roger and/or simply promote Hughes.

I believe the Red Sox are out after dropping all that money on Matsuzaka, and as far as prospects go, it would take a combination of say, Jacob Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bowden, etc, and maybe even a Josh Beckett, for the deal to be worthwhile talent-wise for the Cubs. And I just don't think the Red Sox are amenable to gutting their farm system for a pitcher they currently don't need as they are 6 deep in the rotation in addition to being one of the destinations Roger Clemens will seriously consider. If something goes wrong in ST, I believe firmly the Red Sox would simply bid higher for Clemens, rather than give up their best prospects for Zambrano, and then see where matters stand at the end of the year.

Of course there's virtually no way the White Sox would be considered as trade partners for Zambrano, at least not until after interleague, and even then, I don't see the depth of young talent that would behoove the Cubs to take the Sox seriously. I am also very dubious about their chances of making a big run at Z in the offseason anyway as all the moves they've been making of late have represented a general curbing of spending, and I have no faith at all that Kenny Williams would be able to go to the mat with the Yankees and Red Sox and come out a victor in this. So I don't see the White Sox as players at all unless a number of the big spending teams drop out.

The Dodgers and Angels are fairly deep in their rotations as well and are in much greater need for an impact bat over an impact pitcher. These two teams fall in the category again of clubs that would need something to go terribly wrong in order for the Cubs to stand a chance of landing their best prospects.

Toronto just doesn't have the talent to make a deal for Z work unless they are willing to burn Alex Rios, Travis Snider, and Adam Lind in return, but then the question is, what the hell do the Cubs do with all these OF prospects? Another deal would have to be consumated or a third team involved to make this an expeditious trade.

Baltimore has nothing the Cubs should be considering unless some sort of deal for Tejada were to be made (and it would have to include one of Adam Loewen, Erik Bedard, or Brandon Erbe to make it worthwhile for us as Tejada, though a bargain, isn't exactly cheap).

Same problem with Texas unless they make Mark Teixeira the centerpiece of that deal, and he is in line for a monster payday himself soon.

Houston, St. Louis, Milwaukee won't be considerations, and while Houston would be a major player the following offseason, I don't see St. Louis or Milwaukee getting that heavily involved.

Nationals, Indians, Tigers all seem names other writers have just thrown out there to throw some names. The Tigers are deep in their rotation, the Indians have been loathe to spend money, and will continue to be as I see them having a tough time enough just keeping Hafner, Sizemore, and Sabathia around. And how in god's name would the Nationals outbid anybody?

So anyhow. I just don't see a robust trade market, at least not robust in terms of the names the Cubs should demand, for Zambrano with him on the cusp of landing the most lucrative contract ever given to a pitcher. That Zambrano at the price he is likely to command represents a major risk, is certainly not lost on the teams that would be bidding for him, and I'm sure many of them would realize that going this far for Z, blowing up their farm and giving him a mint, could very well be one of the most disastrous moves their organizations have ever made.

If this were a year ago, then I'd think differently. But the clock has just about run out on getting a relatively cheap Zambrano. He's about to get mighty mighty expensive, and if I were the teams looking to get involved, I would not burn my best talent in addition to throwing 140 mil at Z. I'd wait.