Cubs Favored to win NLDS vs. Diamondbacks

by ttagaris on Oct 1, 2007 1:53 PM CDT Comment 6 comments

This is one the angles I like to peruse while passing time during long stretches between games. These folks are almost always spot on and they certainly wouldn't build those big buildings in Las Vegas if people won money gambling.

To win the series:

Arizona: Even
Cubs: -130 (or, wager $130 to win 100)

Game one:

Arizona is -140 (or, wager 140 to win 100)
Cubs are +125 (or, wager 100 to win 125)
Total: 7 1/2 runs

Beyond Webb, it looks like the keepers have little faith in the D-Backs.

Other numbers:

Red Sox: -175
Angles: +145

Yankees: -210
Cleveland: +165

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The problem with your theory...

...is that betting lines aren't designed to be "right," they're designed to attract the most action from both sides -- money is made off the vigorish (essentially a comission.) A real sportsbook makes money the best when they make the the most consistantly, which means they want to have equal money wagered up on both sides.

Cubs fans are greater in number and (seemingly) in foolish optimism than Diamondbacks fans. This translates into Cubs fans being more likely to risk $130 for $100. It's all about getting the action right; it doesn't mean very much for our playoff chances.

FREE CARMEN PIGNATIELLO!

by cwyers on Oct 1, 2007 1:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree ... a little

We'll learn the most once we find out what side the money is going on and how much the books move the lines at that point.

The sportsbooks ABSOLUTELY take sides in games and don't necessarily adjust the odds to get that 50/50 split. They seek action on games at times.

In my research today, I found the following. Take yesterday's Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers game. The line started at Pitt -5 and there was an overwhelming amount of action on the Steelers. The line closed at 5 and some places found the final tally at 4 and the hook.

And I don't know how many times one has to lose by a half a point to recognize that these guys know exactly what they are doing.

Tim

by ttagaris on Oct 1, 2007 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ESPN has Cubs favored 8/10 experts(?)

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2007/series?series=chcari

Gammons 3-1
Stark 3-2
Phillips 3-1
Neyer 3-1
olney 3-1
Law 3-2
Kurkgian 3-1
Caple 3-2

Bryant 2-3
Keri 1-3

I am taking 3-1 but think the Cubs can sweep. Piniella has basically said so by taking the safety net off of Zambrano and said he will have to pitch game 4.

Arizona over achieved over a long season, unlike the Cubs who underachieved for 1/3 and then played to their level thereafter or Rockies who are hot as a pistol right now. Cubs will eat into their suspect starting pitching outside of Webb who will have enormous pressure on him.

Either Vegas and the outfit are right more often than one can imagine. On book they are saying that it is possible the 4 of the 5 biggest markets could be in the pennant championship...NY-BOS-CHI-Phila or WC

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Oct 1, 2007 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs