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To Trade or Not To Trade???

OK, it's been a week now, so I'm putting the wood into the Hot Stove and grabbing the matches.

The Cubs definitely need a power-hitting RF or CF, and possibly an upgrade at SS.  A #2 starter would allow Lilly, Hill, and Marquis to move down a notch.

However, we all know that the Free Agent market stinks other than A-Rod, who won't be coming here.  So... that means that this winter will be a busy trading season; it also means that the Cubs will have to give up something to fill their holes.

Below are most of the guys on the 40 man roster, divided into "tradability" categories.  I invite everyone to see what they can come up with to improve the Cubs for 2008.

Free Agents - can't be traded
Jason Kendall
Cliff Floyd (option)
Steve Trachsel (option)
Kerry Wood

Very Tradeable - good player, favorable contract
Ryan Dempster
Kevin Hart
Rich Hill
Bob Howry
Carlos Marmol
Sean Marshall
Geo Soto
Mark DeRosa - Yankees interested if A-Rod leaves

Tradeable
Scott Eyre
Ted Lilly
Jason Marquis - healthy innings-eaters always have value
Michael Wuertz
Daryle Ward
Jacque Jones - proven he can play CF
Matt Murton

Some Value - marginal players, good throw-ins
Neal Cotts
Will Ohman
Ronny Cedeno
Mike Fontenot
Ryan Theriot

Untradeable
Angel Guzman - health
Carlos Zambrano - NTC
Henry Blanco - health
Derrek Lee - NTC
Angel Pagan - health
Aramis Ramirez - NTC
Alfonso Soriano - NTC

Good Prospects - unproven
Sean Gallagher
Billy Petrick
Carmen Pignatiello
Jeff Samardzija
Jake Fox
Eric Patterson
Felix Pie

Who stays, who goes, and who comes in return?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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I think Murton goes
and Jake Fox becomes the right-handed Daryle Ward on the bench.  

I like Murton, but I expect him to be traded.

Likewise, I expect there's a market for Sean Marshall, and he'll be a main component of any major trade the Cubs make this offseason.

Geo! (clap-clap-clap) Soto! (clap-clap-clap)

by zambranofan on Oct 13, 2007 9:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

unless I missed it
Ward isn't signed, but has an option that the Cubs will likely pick up. He might not be back, but he won't be traded.

And I doubt Pagan is untradeable because of a stomach illness, even a nasty one like collitis.

Wuertz, Marshall and E-Pat to Cincy for Dunn -- assuming Sori could move to right.

by elgato on Oct 13, 2007 10:50 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

agreed on Pagan...
without knowing the details, if he did, as reported, have a bad case of colitis, assuming that he did not require surgery or does not have some other associated inflammatory bowel component (i.e. chrons dx or ulcerative colitis) with recurrent flares, the probablity of him returning healthy next year is good....thus certainly making him 'tradeable'.  I still am intrigued as to what Pagan brings to this team when completely healthy and able to contribute for a full year.   His versatility is quite sorely needed on this team.

by LuisSalazar on Oct 14, 2007 8:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who Goes?
Free Agents -
Jason Kendall -- the Club should not even consider keeping him.
Cliff Floyd (option) -- The club should urge him to retire.
Steve Trachsel (option) -- The club should say "good bye".
Kerry Wood -- Let's see what he wants to stay.

Very Tradeable - good player, favorable contract
Ryan Dempster -  I disagree with the "good player"  part of this.  I would put him in the marginal value area.
Kevin Hart -- Not enough experience to say he's a good player.
Rich Hill -- I'd keep him.
Bob Howry -- His age and position don't make him all that tradeable.
Carlos Marmol -- I hope they keep him.
Sean Marshall -- I would hate to trade him, but he may be needed to get a valuable player.
Geo Soto -- The starting catcher.
Mark DeRosa - Yankees interested if A-Rod leaves.  I would trade him very quickly, especially if Soriano is going to move back to second.

Tradeable
Scott Eyre - Nah.  No one is stupid enough to take him (oh, wait, maybe the Reds..)
Ted Lilly -- I hope they can trade him, he will become a rock very soon.
Jason Marquis - healthy innings-eaters always have value.   They might.   Marquis doesn't have any real value and is paid far too much for his results.   He's going to be a Cub for the rest of the contract.  And its going to hurt the team.
Michael Wuertz I would put him in the "very tradable category".
Daryle Ward -  Lots and lots of one dimensional aging players are out there.  Ward's nothing special.
Jacque Jones - proven he can play CF
Matt Murton -- If Soriano is going to stay in LF, he needs to be traded.

Some Value - marginal players, good throw-ins
Neal Cotts
Will Ohman
Ronny Cedeno
Mike Fontenot
Ryan Theriot - Theriot's more than a marginal player, if you have Eyre and Ward as tradable, then Theriot belongs up there.  As for the rest, they are marginal or less.

Untradeable - I agree.
Angel Guzman - health
Carlos Zambrano - NTC
Henry Blanco - health
Derrek Lee - NTC
Angel Pagan - health
Aramis Ramirez - NTC
Alfonso Soriano - NTC

by frustratedfan on Oct 13, 2007 10:51 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The way to build a winner
is to develop a good farm system that helps the big league club and helps you fill holes.

The players we have that overlap our current strengths are the ones that are most likely to move.

Murton, Marshall, and Dempster are the most likely to be dealt.  They have proven big league value and if we can improve our weaknesses by dealing them, go for it.

Kendall and Trachsel are as good as gone.  Floyd will be back or retire.  I hope Woody stays, half sentiment, half I honestly believe he's going to be a solid set-up man.

I can't see Soto, DeRosa, Howry, or Marmol going anywhere.

Hill is an interesting one, as is Hart.  Hill's got a lot of experience and may look good in a package to get Santana (although it'll take a lot more than Rich Hill).  Hart seems to have Lou in his corner, which may be intriguing to potential trade partners.  I can see one of them going in a deal to bring us a major player.

Lilly is untouchable in my opinion.  We need to add another experienced starter at the top of the rotation, trading Lilly would simply be treading water.

Wuertz and Jones may have some takers, but I don't want to see Jacque go if we don't get a big left handed bat for CF or RF this off season.

Theriot isn't going anywhere.  If we get a name SS, he may move to 2B, sending DeRo to RF, making a left handed CF a priority.  Good teams don't have to have all-star players with all-star salaries at every position.  Theriot is productive enough for the money he costs, his glove is worth 10x what he's paid.

Cedeno's late season clutch hitting and AAA success may make him a desireable comodity - like I said, deal your excess strengths.  I think the club may be ready to give up on EPatt too, but his value would be highest after a good fall/winter league or a good spring training.

I think the biggest question mark of the offseason is Pie?  Is he ready?  Are the Cubs ready to commit to him everyday?  Are they willing to trade him and risk him coming back to bite them in the Dontrelle Willis/Lou Brock/Rafael Palmeiro/Joe Carter azz?

by HectorVillanueva on Oct 13, 2007 11:12 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The Cubs need another star hitter or pitcher
and the free agent markets pretty thin, so trading is the best way to get a star.

The guys who they shouldn't trade are Soriano, Zambrano, Ramirez, Lee and Marmol.  

The most valuable trade commodities are Hill (have to bring back a starting pitcher, if dealt), Pie, Marshall and Soto.  

SORIANO! YESSSSSSSS! JIMBO!!!

by CubFaninCA on Oct 13, 2007 11:43 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Good pitching gets you anywhere
I'll take star pitching over star hitting anyday. And why would you want to see this years unbeleivable defense go to waste by moving Soriano to 2nd. Ive heard Piniella mention it, but after watching him lead the league in left field in assists and defense i dont see the reasoning.
"The more i practice, the luckier i seem to get" -Yogi Berra

by ChiCubsFever on Oct 13, 2007 11:54 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Loud sustained applause
pitching, pitching, pitching.

I keep hearing that the Cubs are 'essentially set' with regard to their rotation next year with Z, Lilly, Marquis, Hill and one of Gallagher/Marshall/?Prior/Hart.

I think we are 'set' with Z and Lilly.  I don't agree that the 3-5 slots are locks.  You need.....we need....solid arms in this rotation in order to take the next step.  The Cardinals story of 2006 (essentially winning without that dominant staff other than Carpenter) is a rarity and something this team should not count on.  

From a position/bullpen standpoint, this club really shouldnt have to alter much.  If you somehow were to add some quality staff here, you like your chances.  I know how our big guys (Ramirez, Soriano, Lee) failed big time this year, but I haven't lost confidence in them...their own postseason history wouldn't suggest to.  

Therefore, I agree....add arms first and foremost.  yes it's a gamble (Mulder, Schmidt, etc....) but it's also what has created most Championship teams.

The ability to actually find those arms on the other hand is a different story

by LuisSalazar on Oct 14, 2007 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would deal
Pie, Theriot, Jacque, Dempster, Marquis and Murton while they have value or have dealable contracts provided that the return is worth it.  No ptbnl's and no creating one hole to fill another.  I don't see any reason why Kendall should be back with the team next year, or Trachsel for that matter.  I really didn't see any reason for Trachsel to be on the team this year either but oh well...
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Oct 14, 2007 12:00 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The only 2 with value
are Pie and maybe Dempster.  There's probably a few teams wanting to try Dempster as a starter...    Doubtful, Jones, Murton, Theriot or Marquis have much value...   Marquis has 2 years left on his contract, so teams may be wary of adding him, and the Cubs are probably better off keeping Jones.  He may have a good year since it's his contract year.  
SORIANO! YESSSSSSSS! JIMBO!!!

by CubFaninCA on Oct 14, 2007 12:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Marshall is a huge question mark
The past 2 years he's been shut down after 125 and 103 innings respectively. If the Cubs don't see an improvement in innings next year because of some limitation that can't be fixed, he'd probably be the best trade bait, a young LHP with a 3.92 ERA this year.

Otherwise, we need young adequate players to take up spots that lower the overall average salary. As such, I can see Dempster on the way out along with Eyre. And unless we're comfortable with Pie having a big improvement next year, Jones is the only CF we have. Marquis could be gone but I doubt we get much more than AA prospects for him, if that. Two years in a row essentially demoted during the playoffs tend to diminish value.

It's not to late to go to Soto.

by tharr on Oct 14, 2007 3:37 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Who to Deal?
I've always felt that you should deal from a position of strength.

I look at the free agent pool and see who is intriguing.  Aaron Rowand is one player that interests me.  He has put up some nice numbers in Philadephia, but are they inflated because of the bandbox ball park?  I also remember the catch inhe made in Philadelphia, running into the wall.  If he did that at Wrigley, they'd be calling the coroner.

He brings good defense and solid offense.  He would fit in very nicely into the number six spot in the order.

Now, if the Cubs would sign Rowand, Jones goes back to right.  If Pie is ready, great.  If not, another year in the minors won't kill him, he's still very young and has some holes in his game.  Maybe Corey Patterson could have used some more time in the minors.

Pitching?  Johan Santana would be great, but what would it take, and are the Cubs willing to give up that much?  It will be interesting to see what the Twins do with Torii Hunter and how that impacts other dealings.

One other thought that came up this week was Lou Piniella.  He was mentioned as a potential manager for the Yankees.  Currently, he is under contract with the Cubs for two more years.  

Now, let's say the Yankees really want him.  How badly do you want him?  Remember, Lou was traded to the Devil Rays by the Mariners (Randy Wynn?).  Any Yankee prospects that are intriguing?

I look at the current Cubs roster and seem some players that should go.  Jason Marquis is just too erratic.  You cannot have a rotation with Marquis followed by Sean Marshall.  They are bullpen killers.  Going to the pen in the fifth or sixth innings on consecutive days is brutal.  If the Cubs sign an Aaron Rowand, I just don't see room for both Daryle Ward and Cliff Floyd. That would also close out the DeRosa to right field scenario.

However, if Pie is ready, I'll take him him in a heartbeat over JJ in right.  Sorry, but .280 hitters with 5 HR's are easily replaced. That I can only take so many 4-3's on my scorecard.

I was very disappointed in Rich Hill's comments after the playoffs.  When the scouting report says don't throw a first pitch fastball to Chris Young, and you do, and say "I didn't think he would swing" is very disturbing to me.  He has shown a stubborn streak in the past, and I think that was what held him back previously.  

I also feel that a wild card could be "the employee."  He accrued zero days of major league service last year, and that will impact him when free agency comes around.  I figure he will cost somewhere around $3 million next year.  The Cubs have thrown that much at players in the past with less potential.  Plus, if his shoulder really is cleaned out, I'd like to see what he has before throwing in the towel.

Geovany Soto could be a Godsend.  Catching is always at a premium, and if we have one from our farm system, that's just gravy.

I have to admit, the one thing that gives me reason for optimism for the future is career years.  Teams that win have some players that have career years.  Did anyone on the Cubs have a "career year?"  Lilly had a nice year.  Marmol maybe.  Soto?  Still early.  Theriot?  Lots of intangibles.  Ramirez, Lee, Soriano, Jones, Hill Zambrano and Murton all had years that were near their career average or little below. And, we still won the division title.

Look at the Brewers.  Fielder hit 50.  Braun hit 34 in 4 and a half months.  Sophomore slump for Braun?  Career year for Fielder?  Let's see.  They also have their employee, Ben Sheets.  Great stuff, but always getting hurt.

Dusty to the Reds?  I have friend who is a Giants fan.  Everything he told me about Dusty Baker was true.  He said Dusty was good as long as Bons was hjealthy, but not a very smart manager.  He would drive you crazy.  I think the last two years of Dusty's reign in Chicago are more indicative of his abilities.  Could be a lot od solo HR's at GAB, with no one to clog the bases with those pesky little walks.

Astros are a mess.  Cardinals just fired the best GM in the division, and La Russa wants out.  The Pirates? Well, they're the Pirates.  BTW, who's out PTBNL for Cesar Izturis?

Hey, just 5.5 months to first pitch!!

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. -- George Santayana (1863-1952)

by cubfred on Oct 14, 2007 9:15 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

cubs
more pitching is needed and the outfield is a mess. jones floyd and murton.what to do???dont wanna see murton get a rep as a bench  player.could have put up better numbers than floyd with more playing time.jones plays a mean centerfield but 27 homers  to 5.that,s brutal.we,ll have to wait and see if  hendry gets to do anything.and pie./who cares anymore.it,s a soap opera with this guy.

by NOMAR on Oct 14, 2007 9:53 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd trade any of the tradable ones
to get Santana for the year and Carl Crawford.
Then the lineup has a good #2 hitter with some power and speed and a true ace.  If the Twins really would trade Santana, don't forget, he will be a free agent in 2009, then the package will consist of young pitching and young players such as Pie.

Tampa needs pitching and really don't need position players in return.

by cubswin on Oct 14, 2007 10:47 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Far more strategy and tango going on.
First let us see what happens with ARod...if he leaves the Yankees they will want to fill...their choices are Lowell in a FA deal or dealing for 3B...DeRosa if available would open up 2B for Soriano....This means Fontenot and Cedeno stay as Piniella would move Soriano to the OF in late innings unless he improves his defense at 2B. I think moving Soriano is a foregone objective.

...Adam Dunn in LF would be available so what would Dusty & Co want, too much I don't think this happens....I think Cubs will pursue Crawford who is in his final year of arbitration, trading Marshall and Murton to TB, moving Dempster to a starting pitcher.  

RF: options could be Abreu if the Yankees start rebuilding and jettisoning money....but the real target is the Japanese star Fukodome. Now you have an OF of Crawford--Jones---Fukodome.  What about Pie?

I think the organization uses Pie as a centerpiece to trade for Willis. Santana will cost more in players and Cubs won't be a serious pursuer but the Marlins will take Pie and another prospect like Gallagher (remember the Choi-Lee trade). Willis in his final arbitration year will have a good spring and the Cubs will sign him to an extension as Rothschild makes another reclamation project.

Thus the Cubs look at an infield of Lee, Soriano, Theriot, Ramirez and OF of Crawford, Jones, Fukodome..catcher is Soto and Blanco...starting pitching is Z, Lilly, Willis, Hill and Dempster or Marquis (who probably loses gets traded in late ST)....relievers are Howry Cl, Marmol, Eyre, Wuertz, Wood and two unknowns.

Thus the trading then goes on the edges: OF does Patterson make it as a utility OF'er/IF'er, Pagan and Ward probably return along with either Cedeno and Fontenot unless they are part of some minor deal.

Cubs offense suddenly gets better with Crawford and Fukodome while defense in the OF improve also. Infield defense is suspect at 2B but the real improvement is the starting pitching of Willis and Dempster provide the best 5-man rotation in the league for the second year in a row but this one is better replacing Willis of Marquis and Dempster of Marshall.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Oct 14, 2007 11:51 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Please god, no 2B for Soriano
People got jumped on Todd Walker, Soriano would be a nightmare.

I'm hoping for Fukudome for RF with Jones / a Righty in CF. I'd put a premium on a #3 starter, and start thinking about SS. Honestly, I like Theriot a lot, but .266 with no power and 'OK' defense isn't gonna cut it. I think he's a great backup infielder, but it's a spot where we could honestly use an upgrade.

We also need more lineup balance, and SS could be a place to find a lefty.

Why oh why would you move DeRosa? He's a good 2B, and is clearly a veteran leader on this team, and a humble one at that. I don't like moving him to RF either, he's a mediocre RF and good 2B, doesn't make sense.

I can see trying to move Soriano to RF, he certainly has the arm for it. But RF in Wrigley is big and tough, I don't think he's got the head for it. He jogged too much in the outfield this season, that could be disastrous in RF. I'm not saying I wouldn't be willing to give it a shot. But picking up Dunn in LF without knowing for sure that Soriano can handle RF could become a calamity after a few weeks.

I, like everyone, would love ARod and/or Santana. But does anyone honestly think we get one of them? The sale of the team won't permit us (I think) to add as much payroll as ARod would cost. And the Twins are a much smarter organization than the Cubs, historically anyways. I can't see the Cubs having enough of the 'right guys' to get Santana. It takes quality to get quality, and we don't have any top tier prospects in the wings. (We have good prospects, just not phenomenal ones)

Re-Sign Wood, Re-Sign Ward. Murton can become trade bait, as can Dempster, Marshall and some youngsters. But those guys don't net you superstars.(Santana, ARod, Crawford, or Willis) Although Pie may help get Willis (that is easily the most likely big name of the ones mentioned that we could afford)

by WittyUserName on Oct 14, 2007 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd love to have Fukudome...
... but the Cubs are going to have to outbid several teams, particularly the Padres, who are said to want to go all-out for him.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 14, 2007 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Crawford isn't going anywhere.
Tampa has a club option for 2009 and there's a mutual option for 2010.  

He has an $8M option for 2009 and a $10M option for 2010.  He is not arbitration eligibleT - he signed a contract that extended through his arbitration years in 2005.

by Wreckard on Oct 14, 2007 10:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

those numbers are
exactly why Crawford probably will be traded for pitching.

by cubswin on Oct 15, 2007 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

willis?
if we use pie as the centerpiece for an overrated below average pitcher like willis...then goodness i dont even know what to say
Kevin Hart Watch: IP: 11 K: 13 ERA: 0.82 WHIP: 1.00 K/BB: 3.25 a productive farm system is a wonderful thing.

by kylejo on Oct 15, 2007 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would be shocked
if the Yankees trade to replace A-Rod with DeRosa. Mark's a good player, but Steinbrenner will probably want to sign a big name if A-Rod leaves.

Plus, I think the Cubs like DeRosa's leadership. That's not saying he couldn't be dealt, but I doubt -- given his price tag, good year and intangibles -- that he would be shopped.

Depending on what would come in return, trading DeRosa would create problems. Fontenot is not an everyday player, and Theriot might flounder next year. Anyone else want another second-base derby ala 2006? And a DP combo of Cedeno and Soriano is terrifying.

If I were Hendry, Murton and Marshall would be the two guys I shop -- because they're young, cheap, they have upside AND they have no real place on the team. Wuertz would be next, though I think he has more of a place.

That's not saying I wouldn't consider trading anyone else, but those three would be my top candidates.

Oh, and if anybody wants Marquis, pull the trigger.

by elgato on Oct 14, 2007 11:55 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

ROFLMAO...DP combo of Soriano and Cedeno
sounded so ridiculously retarded that I couldn't stop myself from laughing for like 5 minutes.

by cubsnlinux on Oct 14, 2007 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

DeRo to the Yanks
It depends on who is really running the Yankees.  Several NY/NJ papers last year were reporting that, if A-Rod demanded a trade, DeRo was Cashman's (and Torre's) first choice (as a FA) to replace him -- specifically because he was a "Scott Brosius" type, and was NOT a big-ego superstar.  Cashman wants to create a better clubhouse, probably at the behest of Derek Jeter.  If one of the Steinbrenners out-votes (or ousts) Cashman, they won't be interested in DeRo.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 14, 2007 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cashman's smart.
The Yankees won all their WS in this era (1996, and 1998-99-2000) when they had role-player types like Brosius and Paul O'Neill.

I think it's no coincidence that since they went and "bought every player in baseball" (as the Onion once humorously put it), that they can bludgeon themselves into the postseason by scoring tons of runs, but can't win in October.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 14, 2007 8:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think it's the hitting...
I think the reason the Yankees haven't won a championship is the pitching.  In the late 90s they had a very good rotation and a VERY good bullpen.  In the 2000s, they've occasionally had good starters but have rarely had good bullpens (aside from Rivera).  This year, they had a deeper bullpen but the starting pitching wasn't great.

Moreover, I think it's a product of bad luck, too.  The Yanks made the World Series in 2001, only to face the buzzsaw of Schilling and Johnson.  In 2002, they ran into the rally monkey and a GREAT bullpen in the ALCS.  In 2003, they again made the World Series, but ran into a ridiculously hot Josh Beckett and company.  In 2004, they should have again made the World Series (they were killing the Sox), but forgot to close the door and then ran into Pedro and Schilling.  So it's not like they haven't come really close with the

I think blaming the Yankees' failures on the "buy the best players" philosophy (or contributing their previous success to the role players) is false causality.  The fact is that it's hard to win a championship, even when you have the best team.  The Yankees were probably overly lucky to have won 3 of 4 in the late-90s and 2000.  And they've been overly unlucky to have not won a series since 2000.

by SouthernCub on Oct 14, 2007 10:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually
the Yankees won 4 of 5 between 1996 and 2000 including 3 in a row from 1998-2000.

by cubsbak on Oct 15, 2007 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Doesn't change my point...
but thank you for the correction.

by SouthernCub on Oct 15, 2007 8:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Very surprised
I don't think we need to do very much tinkering with this team.  I mean we were the best in the NL from June 3rd was it?  

The only reason we were doing poorly the first half was due to the bullpen (and Z partially) not playing well.  

We did still win the division and it looks to me that every other team will be getting weaker due to free agency (especially the Brewers probably losing Corder).

I have no doubt that unless we can get a FA upgrade, there's no need to do any trading.  Players like Hill, Hart, Marshall will be better with continued experience.  Soriano will be healthier.  Theriot will play better after being used to a full season in the majors and we have Soto as our starting catcher.  

Plus starting pitching will have Lilly strong, Z stronger, Marquis strong to start and Hill/Marshall as stated.  Plus, when Marquis falters, we know we can have a Hart do a spot start here and there as well.

This is a 90+ win ball club in 2008 in my opinion.  

by ak123 on Oct 14, 2007 1:17 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yep
90+ wins and another early exit in the playoffs.  We need to get better to get anywhere when it counts in the post-season.
"I took an IQ test and it came back negative." -- Woody Paige

by BlueSox on Oct 14, 2007 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Playoffs
I'm convinced there is no determination how our team can do in the playoffs even with tons of upgrades.  

I am convinced that our team is strong enough as is to make the post-season again and that's a pretty good feeling since we've got months to go.

by ak123 on Oct 14, 2007 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Amen
i was kinda starting to freak out a little bit reading this thread.  Are people seriously recommending trading Pie for Willis?  that would be insane.  why would we trade a major prospect away for a losing pitcher.  or people talking about trading the entire next generation of farm system developed players away plus hill and marshall for Santana.  i think we made so many big moves last year that people are antsy for more news about huge aquisitions and trades, but we made enough last year to go from worst to first, and probably enough to keep getting better.  i'm not suggesting making no moves at all, but the worst thing in this situation, when we have an older generation of players on this team, would be to trade away all the youth for more veterans, where does that leave the team in a few years?  the cubs are really starting to feel like a major market team the past few years, but i don't want to go down the same path as the yankees, all they do is buy veterans, and yeah, they make the playoffs every year, but in my eyes, there's virtually no dignity in winning that way, they don't earn anything, they just buy it, without any thought about building a real team, with leaders, and chemistry.  let's not mess with the core players, and let's try to get a pitcher, but we have better options in the system than the free agent market is offering, so let's be smart about this.

by dogcatratcheese on Oct 15, 2007 8:08 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

this...
is gonna be a long long long long offseason i see.
Here comes the nasty leftie to shut it down in the 9th......Clay Rapada!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Oct 14, 2007 7:31 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

As it stands, this is NOT a 90+ win team
It has been said here that starting pitching is the key.  I totally agree.  With that being said, there simply isn't much out there.  So I would expect Z/Lilly/Hill/Marquis to be the top 4 again next year.  My hope is that Hill can become a 15-20 win guy (run support will help), because I don't think we can expect 15 out of Lilly next year.  

The biggest key this offseason will be picking up a solid number 5 hitter.  Someone to take the RBI pressure off of Lee/Ramirez.  Sure, I'd love to get A-Rod, but lets get real.  We need an  everyday solid player.  I like Murton, but he is no number 5 guy.  Soto might be that guy down the road, but not yet.  

Right now is the time to trade Jones.  I know he came up big in the second half, I know he is a .280 career hitter, I know how woooonderful he is.  However, he is simply awful in CF.  He made some great looking plays, but (for the most part) they were plays that should have been far more routine.  His arm is horrible.  His baserunning is worse.  I don't doubt his effort, but we need a better player.  He is too good to have on the bench, but not good enough to play every day.  That, combined with the fact that his trade value is at its highest (great 2nd half and only one year left on contract), make him very tradeable.  Perhaps a reunion with Dusty in Cincy is in order?

With an offense that scores more runs, we won't need to do much with pitching (not that we could, anyway).  Still, 90 wins seems a stretch right now... even with A-Rod.

by nevadadave on Oct 14, 2007 9:00 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

A fifth hitter would be nice
but that won't help win games if you don't add a starting pitcher and more speed/OBP in the lineup.

I would think the Cubs will make a run at upgrading one of the infield positions and either CF or RF along with adding a pitcher.  If Piniella had his way, I don't think you will see Marquis, Murton, Cedeno or Floyd on the roster in 08.  Who they add, I have no idea and much of that will probably be determined by how much dough Hendry will have and whether he is willing to part with Pie.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 15, 2007 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't trade
Derosa. I think he proved himself to be extremely valuable to the team this year. Not only can he start at second, but he can fill in at a number of other positions as well. Nice guy to have around, and by all accounts a great guy in the clubhouse. But, it's hard to say who you would or would not trade not knowing who the team is looking at acquiring. I do think we have some pitching that other clubs might be interested in and who I wouldn't mind parting with for the right player, namely Marshall, Hill, Dempster, Gallagher. I also wouldn't want to see the club trade Soto or Marmol. I think they are two young players who are just starting to really come into their own and will be fun to watch over the next few years.

by qccub on Oct 14, 2007 9:13 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It is easy......
Catcher:  Soto starts, Let Kendall walk. Blanco as the back-up. If he cant(health) Back-up catchers are a dime a dozen.

Infield: same Lee Derosa Theriot Ramirez  I can live with riot batting 8th.

Outfield: Leave Soriano alone. IF Pie is ready(which will be determined during Spring training) start him at Center, if not then JJ.
Sign Mr. Funnyname(Fukudome) to play RF.

First and foremost, and I wanted this during the trading deadline in July, is to get an Ace to put between Big Z and Lilly. Hill(he should be better next year, real solid 4th) and Marquis at 4 and 5 will be good.

Resign Ward and Wood, let Floyd go.

Bullpen: look to sign or trade for another lefty. Im okay with keeping Demps for middle relief(not as closer and def. not as starter) if you have to trade him, then trade him.
GET RID OF OHMAN BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY

Trade Murton, Marshall and whatever kids needed to get an ace.

As for Arod, only if he falls on our laps. If he wants to play here with Lou and play for less than 20 mill, then great. Not ss only at 3rd, we can always trade Rami or a pitcher. It should be looked into slightly but not be a priority, we have other needs on which to spend the money.
 

We will see some beautiful things come the fall.

by Me and Lou WS 07 on Oct 14, 2007 11:14 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Right, because the difference...
...between Ryan Theriot and Alex Rodriguez is only ten wins. Absolutley NO reason to see if we can replace the one with the other. Okay.
FREE CARMEN PIGNATIELLO!

by cwyers on Oct 15, 2007 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Too bad they can't trade Soriano...
...because that would free up enough money to sign several quality players.

Despite the fact that they won the division with him, I still can't figure out why they spent so much money on someone who's essentially "Sammy Light." Sure, he occasionally generates some excitement, but he hurts the team more than he helps and doesn't have the slightest idea how to play the game. For what he cost, the Cubs could have signed two very good starting outfielders and probably had money left over for another decent pitcher or versatile bench player. I felt at the time that they should have rented Kenny Lofton for a year, and the team would have been way better off. They'd have had a proven lead-off hitter and a much better outfield defense. They probably would have even won a game or two against the Snakes in the NLDS.  

As it is, they're stuck with a guy who's going to be past his prime (I really doubt if he'll ever steal thirty bases again in a season, let alone forty) for most of the contract and will be untradeable unless they eat most of the money. His presence also messes up the outfield situation, since the Cubs have plenty of left fielders and nobody to play right assuming Jones stays in center. That means they're going to have to go out and spend even more money for a decent right fielder, unless they think they can live with Murton and Ward in right next year (since it sounds like Count Floyd is probably going to retire--and he was rrreally scarrrry in right, too).

That said, I have nothing against Soriano personally. He seems like a nice guy, but signing him was not a very wise move for the Cubs to make. I wonder if the Yankees would be interested in taking him back and picking up most of his contract if A-Rod leaves?

by Mike Vails Evil Twin on Oct 15, 2007 4:13 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

you honestly think
that soriano "hurts the team more than he helps"?

19 assists, leading the league.  ops+ 123.  big players get big money, with inflation this contract will not look so bad, and soriano could easily be the kind of athlete who maintains a high level of play as he gets older.

"sammy light" that is simplifying things a little much.  did sammy have close to this speed at 31?  soriano is a much better athlete than sammy sosa.  

and it is hillarious that soriano "ruins" the outfield situation because he happens to play left.  

"because that would free up enough money to sign several quality pitchers"

last i checked quality pitchers were going for at least 10 mil a year.  and who are these quality free agent pitchers available?

quit whining, the cubs sign a superstar, he has a successful season powering the cubs to the postseason with 14 homers, and people still complain.  give me a fucking break.

Kevin Hart Watch: IP: 11 K: 13 ERA: 0.82 WHIP: 1.00 K/BB: 3.25 a productive farm system is a wonderful thing.

by kylejo on Oct 15, 2007 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sure there are plenty of people...
...around here who can and will take you to task for your opinions on Soriano.

But I think you're letting how it all ended color your perception of Sosa the wrong way.

I mean, seriously. Six Silver Slugger awards? Nine straight years finishing in the top twenty in MVP votes, including one outright win? His career OPS is 128, 25th among active players. He's fifth on the all-time home runs list. In 2001 he hit .328/.437/.737!

I understand his last year with us was disappointing at least. I understand that there are allegations that a lot of his accomplishments were tainted by PEDs.

But I really don't understand how you conclude that Sammy was anything but an elite ballplayer for us.

FREE CARMEN PIGNATIELLO!

by cwyers on Oct 15, 2007 11:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Soriano and Sammy
Ok, the "Sammy light" comment was a little bit harsh, but my point is that Soriano won't come close to matching Sammy's best years for the Cubs, and his grasp of the fundamentals and fine points is even less than Sammy's. And I doubt if anyone would argue that Sammy was an astute student of the game.

Sure, Soriano led the league in assists, but how many catchable balls did he butcher or fail to reach because of his tentative approach to fly balls? How many times did he get picked off or run into an out? Face it, when it comes to base running, he's a numbskull. Players such as Brock, Henderson, and Lopes had continued success as base stealers after they lost a step or two because they understood the art. Soriano pretty much relies on speed alone, and when that goes he's not going to be anywhere near the threat he once was.

Like I said, I have nothing against Soriano personally, I just think the $123 million could have been put to better use. If he were a centerfielder and/or legitimate lead-off or middle of the order hitter, it wouldn't be a problem. However, that's way too much money for someone who has trouble playing the least demanding position and isn't really a good fit anywhere in a lineup. Yes, he's exciting and explosive, and can carry a team for a few days, but I'd rather have someone who might not have the pizzaz, but who plays smart, consistent baseball all the time and can still make important contributions when he isn't hitting. I would much rather have three good players for that money than one superstar.  

And kylejo, I didn't say they could have signed lots of "quality pitchers." I said "players." I don't care if you slag my opinions, just make sure you know what you're talking about before you get on my case.

by Mike Vails Evil Twin on Oct 16, 2007 1:18 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The problem with this thinking...
...is that only nine players can be on the field at a time. The Cubs didn't just go out and get Soriano; they got Soriano, resigned Ramirez, and signed Lilly, Marquis, DeRosa, Ward and Floyd.

Soriano didn't stop the Cubs from signing ANOTHER superstar, the best free-agent pitching signing of the offseason, and a whole passel of overrated Scott Brosious "play the right way" types.

(Note: Overrated is exactly what it says -- it does not mean "bad" or "has no value.")

The fact is, the dynamics of the free agency market mean that you are probably going to end up overpaying for any player you get in free agency. Part of this has to do with the fact that the prime years of most ballplayers occur while they're essentially indentured servants in the arbitration system.

So, Soriano is overpaid. But I'd rather see the Cubs overpay for real talent than the previous strategy of overpaying for suck (Jermemy Burnitz, Neifi Perez, Glendon Rusch).

FREE CARMEN PIGNATIELLO!

by cwyers on Oct 16, 2007 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Spending judiciously
cwyers - Given the market, Soriano isn't overpaid. I just wish someone else was paying him. The Cubs had plenty of left fielders and didn't need another one for this season. What they needed were upgrades at center, right, and short including a real lead-off hitter at one of those positions. Don't get me wrong, Theriot did a fine job this year and I love his hustle and attitude, but there are undoubtedly better every day shortstops to be had.

Unfortunately, I can't remember who all was available for the positions I mentioned last year, so maybe the talent wasn't there (and you're right - no more Burnitz's!). However, just because they had the money doesn't mean they had to spend it all at once on one player who didn't really fill any of their immediate needs. They always could have saved a little for next season. Of course, the longer Jim Hendry is the GM, the less I think of him. For every genius move he makes, he makes about half a dozen boneheaded ones.

 

by Mike Vails Evil Twin on Oct 16, 2007 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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