Morrissey on Dusty and Prior/2003 playoffs
Thank you, Rick Morrissey, for writing the column that had to be written in today's Sunday Tribune on Dusty Baker and his managing in the 2003 playoffs.
After two years that I've spent on this site trying to defend Dusty's moves in Game Six, which I was at, I'm finally getting some backing. I'll let Morrissey speak for himself:
"You still can hear the moaning long after (Baker's) departure. Why, why didn't he take Mark Prior out of Game 6 when the Cubs were five outs away from going to the World Series? I don't know. Maybe it's because Prior had a three-hit shutout going into the 8th inning, and he was the Cubs' best pitcher. Perhaps it was because setup man Kyle Farnsworth didn't inspire a whole lot of confidence and Baker liked his chances with a pitcher who had gone 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA during the regular season."
Couldn't have said it better myself.
I'm not a wild-eyed Baker fan; in fact, I think he was awful in many ways - especially personality - and his strange attachment to certain over-the-hill players. But I'm sick and tired of hearing how Dusty ruined Mark Prior through over-use. As Morrissey points out, one study that analyzed pitchers from 2000 to 2006 found that Baker's starters averaged 3.68 pitches per start more than they would have been expected to throw under certain conditions.
"In other words," Morrissey writes. "Baker was not a pitcher killer." As I've been saying.
He notes that Prior's injury problems could have started in college or the minors - or under Baker. Nobody knows. "But that hasn't stopped fans and media members, many of them newly minted experts in biomechanics and kinesiology, from blaming Baker for Prior's undoing."
Indeed.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
0 recs |
54 comments
Comments
Baker
Prior was melting down. I'm not saying it would have helped to have Baker go out and talk to him but I can't see where it would have hurt.
by cubstoseriesby100 on
Oct 21, 2007 2:29 PM CDT
reply
actions
0 recs
Amen
Of course, our SS error did not help either. But Dusty not going out to the mound was key for me.
by airweino on
Oct 21, 2007 3:19 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Ok, let's look back at that play shall we?
Prior was rolling
First guy top of 8th easy out.
Lofton singles to Left
Castillo works the count to 3-2, at which point the 'play' happens.
Mind you, Prior still was 'lights out' at this point. Prior clearly still looked composed immediately after the play and on the very next pitch walks Castillo on a good pitch down and in (that MOST would not lay off in that situation) which is misplayed by Bako and goes to the backstop.
IT IS AT THiS MOMENT (and appropriately so) that Rothschild promptly came to the mound to 'settle' Prior. The next pitch, Cabrera hits a grounder to short for a taylor made DP....and we all know what happened.
It was THAT play that cost us, not Baker's lack of 'settling' Prior after the Bartman incident. If that play happens as it should, there is no discussion here. Even then, Prior's stuff showed no real decline, but the wheels fell off.
I am not necesarily a Baker fan, however to crucify him for game 6 in that situation, as many have, I feel is not really fair. He's got plenty other baggage to harp on, but all in all he's been pretty successful.
by LuisSalazar on
Oct 21, 2007 8:39 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Well...
by Rynot on
Oct 22, 2007 6:20 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Oops my bad...
and, yes, Rodriquez singles before Cabrera hits the potential DP ball. My point is that Baker DID send Rothschild out to settle him down at a very appropriate time. hindsight is 20/20, but I don't think too many would advocate going out to 'settle' your pitcher on a 3-2 count, when he was appropriately settled the very next pitch.
by LuisSalazar on
Oct 22, 2007 7:43 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I have yet to see
The only thing I've seen is people talking about how he should have gone out there to talk to him when the guy was obviously extremely upset and emotional.
I've heard the defense was that Prior almost was machine like when he was pitching so Baker thought he'd be okay. But that's exactly the point. The machine was obviously very upset and emotional that makes it even more of an argument he should have gone out there.
And I think Baker does deserve some of the blame for Prior's problems but I think he deserves less than he has gotten.
I heard something goofy but I wonder if maybe it isn't. Prior needed more meat on his upper body.
by cubstoseriesby100 on
Oct 21, 2007 2:32 PM CDT
reply
actions
0 recs
There is absolutely no doubt...
Borowski was warming up. If Baker had gone out to argue, or stall, or anything, he'd have been ready.
There were five outs to go to get to the World Series. If you win that game, you have FOUR DAYS OFF!!!
Joe Torre would have brought his closer in with one out in the 8th in that situation. So would Tony LaRussa, so would Bobby Cox. In that situation, Baker failed his team, and us.
by Al on
Oct 21, 2007 2:35 PM CDT
reply
actions
0 recs
I agree
Every pitcher has a threshold where they drop below the effectiveness of the average middle reliever. For most pitchers, this threshold is reached between 100 and 115 pitches. The back of the Cubs bullpen (even though it wasn't a great pen) definitely stood a better chance of being effective than prior at that point.
I don't have a huge problem with leaving a starter in that long if he's really dealing (although prior was a rookie, so that changes things a bit), but he should have been removed very quickly as the game went on. I'd have a quick hook for a tiring pitcher in the regular season, but that hook should have been immediate in that circumstance.
by Thelonious on
Oct 21, 2007 3:15 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Well put, Al. As Morrisey said:
Morrisey forgot that Borowski was available, he forgot the real criticism about the Bartman game and he forgot that Dusty's teams choked two years in a row because, among other factors, Dusty failed to calm his players down.
by Fraggin Judge on
Oct 21, 2007 7:43 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
To put a goofy childish nerd spin on it...
by TkGoUWGB on
Oct 22, 2007 1:01 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I don't think
And most everyone was still a Dusty supporter and looking for to our chances going into 2004 (especially after resigning Wood, trading for Lee, picking up--a shock now, I know--Todd Walker and LaTroy Hawkins).
The problem with Dusty was not 2003 (maybe for some in retrospect, like a year or two later). It was the steady decline of the team's focus and motivation in the months, years, after that.
Morrissey doesn't really acknowledge that--instead, he just focuses too much on Game 6, which to me is a bit disingenious because that's not the problem Cub fans had with Dusty.
Morrissey also points out that it was unfair that Lou got the big $300m payroll after Dusty was fired. But--as many of us have pointed us--Dusty hadn't proved he deserved it. He got the $ backing in 2004 and squandered it.
peace,
hoosiercubbie
by hoosiercubbie on
Oct 21, 2007 2:41 PM CDT
reply
actions
0 recs
First-again- I am not a Baker backer....but
Many, especially non-Cub fans, would argue otherwise. Baker clearly was not given the $$ backup that Lou was given.....whatever did Lou do to 'prove' that he deserved it? While Dusty did get some $-player support backup in 2004 (and I agree that this is where he failed the most as Cubs manager) to compare what was provided to Lou vs. Dusty is really not fair. The fact is that Dusty gave us a good run in 2003, should've gotten much farther in 2004, had little chance (injuries) in 2005 and zero chance in 2006 to succeed. I was not necessarily a Baker backer, but I'm not convinced he was given a 'fair' shot here.
by LuisSalazar on
Oct 23, 2007 9:21 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Keith Law on Dusty and overuse of Wood/Prior
He cites, of course: Wood, Prior, Matt Clement, and says he came close with Carlos Zambrano.
On Wood, he states:
"Wood's last six regular-season starts in 2003 included pitch counts of 125, 120, 122, 114, 125, and 122. On Sept. 8, for example, the Cubs scored three runs in the top of the seventh to take a 9-2 lead, and Wood -- already at 107 pitches -- came out to pitch the bottom of the inning. In the playoffs that year, he threw 124 pitches in his first start and 112 pitches in under six innings in his last start."
And on Prior:
"Prior, in the only fully healthy season of his major league career, was 23 years old in 2003. He topped 120 pitches nine times, and in his last six starts, threw 131, 129, 109, 124, 131, and 133 pitches, the last coming in just 6 2/3 innings against Pittsburgh. He threw 132 pitches in his first playoff start, and started the eighth inning against Florida in Game 6 of their NLCS despite showing obvious signs of fatigue."
Maybe the average pitcher under Baker would only throw 3.68 more pitches than the average pitcher in the league, but I would imagine that the number is inflated by Wood and Prior in 2003, and that's on top of the fact that, especially in the case of Prior, we're talking about a young pitcher who's not used to throwing 200+ innings in a season. Remember, he only had one partial season in the minors before 2003, and that year, he threw about 170 innings, about 60 in the minors and 110 in the majors.
by mtalken on
Oct 21, 2007 3:10 PM CDT
reply
actions
0 recs
Ding, Ding, Ding! We have a winner
by IllinoisCubs on
Oct 22, 2007 8:19 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
BP's Nate Silver...
by cwyers on
Oct 21, 2007 3:22 PM CDT
reply
actions
0 recs
Baker was a plague
I don't recall Morrissey or many other sportswriters being very critical of Baker during his years in Chicago but most everyone now applauds the change in attitude brought by Piniella. If Dusty did such a fine job why is there a need for change?
As a number of people have pointed out, Dusty was a terrible abuser of the staff. Not enough has been written about Hendry's refusal to control Baker's misuse of a staff with the potential for greatness. Perhaps Morrissey might address that issue rather than feeling sorry for poor old Dusty.
by tharr on
Oct 21, 2007 5:03 PM CDT
reply
actions
0 recs
dusty got plenty of criticism from
But Morrissey's column kind of misses the big point MOST people are bringing up about Dusty being hired by the Reds: Dusty is a terrible fit for that team.
There are some similarities to the Reds of '08 (what they'll probably look like, anyway) and the Cubs of '03 -- veteran nucleus, young arms on the way up, suspect bullpen. Dusty took a group like that, with some late season additions, and won 88 games and nearly won the pennant.
But knowingly or not, he mortgaged the future to do it. If he tries that strategy with the Reds, he'll win 80 games and destroy their young pitchers along the way -- because the Reds aren't as good as the '03 Cubs AND they won't have the money to make midseason moves.
by elgato on
Oct 21, 2007 5:58 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I actually think
by elgato on
Oct 21, 2007 6:00 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Until midseason 2006
by tharr on
Oct 21, 2007 7:49 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Jay Mariotti
by elgato on
Oct 22, 2007 7:04 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I believe
Essentially Baker was given a free ride throughout the majority of his tour here. Compare the criticism that Dusty received here at BCB, particularly beginning with the Stone episodes, with the non involvement of the beat writers.
by tharr on
Oct 23, 2007 2:23 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
2004 is where Baker lost me
Joining in when players were whining about umpires, fans, writers, announcers, expectations, schedules, etc. That's what caused most to lose respect for Dusty. The hatred that he was subject to is despicable, but the lack of respect was most definitely earned.
by Shanghai Badger on
Oct 21, 2007 5:45 PM CDT
reply
actions
0 recs
how about his base-clogging comment
I don't blame Baker for playoff collapse. But in retro should have calmed down Prior, gone out there after that play...funny no one has ever really quizzed him on his chicago time he seems to want to put it all behind him w/o answering the hard questions.
I thought he did equally poor job in G7 when threw in horrible Veres it looked like give-up time.
by writerinwrigley on
Oct 21, 2007 5:55 PM CDT
reply
actions
0 recs
Game 1, not Game 6
by SamFels on
Oct 21, 2007 8:56 PM CDT
reply
actions
0 recs
I'm not defending any of this
I just think Morrissey is right that Dusty didn't "abuse" his pitchers.
by danimal15 on
Oct 21, 2007 10:11 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
This column...
Morrissey didn't touch on Baker's overall poor strategy as a manager, his unwillingness to lay down the law in the clubhouse (players have acknowledged that Baker had no rules), his inability to push his players to focus during 2004, his "us against the world" mentality that made his teams so painful to root for, to name a few.
Morrissey wrote an article attempting to counter fan complaints aimed towards Baker, yet he only dealt with the ten cent crimes. The columnist was either disingenuous or stupid.
DmL
by dmlichte on
Oct 22, 2007 1:27 AM CDT
reply
actions
0 recs
Agreed...
While there are definitely a few things Baker could have done differently in that unfortunate inning, Game 6 is decidedly not what I (or most people) have a problem with regarding Baker. There were many other more significant reasons to think of Baker as crappy manager:
- The aura of lack of accountability for mistakes (always blaming others or just bad luck)
- The lack of understanding of plate discipline and the value of OBP resulted in few chances for our best hitters to drive in runs
- Refusing to play prospects (instead going with Perez, Hollandsworth, etc) which hindered offseason progress because we didn't get clear pictures of what Cedeno, Theriot, Murton, etc could do given a full-time role
by SouthernCub on
Oct 22, 2007 9:43 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
PAP Propagandists
They offer the half-assed rationale that the pichers of the 60's and 70's faced lineups full of scrawny slap hitters and were able to "cruise" through line ups. Funny, I don't remember Bob Gibson and Nolan Ryan doing much "cruising".
As pitch counts have become gospel, starting pitchers are increasingly becoming more poorly conditioned to pitch. Even 4 or 5 years ago, a starter could throw 120 pitches in a start without the print and broadcast media experts calling for the head of a manager. Now at 100 pitches is considered abusive. What next, 80?
Pitch count orthodoxy make for a less interetsing game, as it has almost singlehandedly erased the concept of a stud starting pitcher. Now all we see are 5 inning wimps followed by a procession of one inning "role players" coming out of the pen.
An they wonder why games can't be completed in less than 3 hours.
by perseman on
Oct 22, 2007 9:16 AM CDT
reply
actions
0 recs
A few possible explanations in support of PAP...
- The progression of hitters into bigger, stronger beings. Between steroids and weight training, hitters today are MUCH bigger and stronger than hitters in years past. This results in This has led to:
- The continued emergence of the strikeout as the "out pitch," rather than just focusing on getting outs any way they can come. Due to the ability of hitters to hit the ball further, there's more margin for error on a swing that can still result in a HR. And a groundball may be hit harder these days for more "seeing eye singles." Thus, missing bats entirely is a preferred means of getting outs. Strikeouts are definitely a bigger part of today's game than in years past.
3. Increased use of sliders and sharper breaking pitches. These pitches cause more stress on the body than the fastball/changeup of years past. In order to get these bigger, stronger hitters out.
An additional point of interest may be the lowering of the mound in conjunction with the steroid/weight training era for hitters. It is very possible that this combination has led to more injuries.
These are all just hypotheses. But the point is that researchers are finding a significant link between "pitcher abuse" and injuries. That would suggest that SOMETHING is different between pitchers of today and pitchers of yesteryear. And considering the amount of money invested in today's pitcher, I think people are going to pay a lot more attention to anything that might lead to damaging such expensive investments.
by SouthernCub on
Oct 22, 2007 9:34 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
There's one more point you forgot.
Also, there's a lot more money invested in modern-day pitchers. Go look through rosters of pitchers in the 1960's and 1970's; you'll find plenty of examples of pitchers back then who had every bit as much talent as Josh Beckett, etc. do today. When they got hurt, they were just discarded. (A few good examples: Gary Nolan, Don Gullett, Dennis Leonard, Steve Busby.) Today, they don't get pushed that far, so they can have longer careers.
by Al on
Oct 22, 2007 9:58 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Ergo.....
If the Pitch Count Propagandists are correct, then in this era there should be a raft of young, healthy pitchers who have used the benefits of low pitch counts and low levels of "pitcher abuse" to put together years of consistent, effective performance at a high level.
Well, where are these pitchers?? How many starting pitchers have performed consistently at a All-Star level for the past five years?
I would like to compare All-Star rosters over the past 10 years, or even the top 10 ERA's over the past 10 seasons and see how many pitchers have demonstrated ANY level of consistent effectiveness over that period. I can state my conlcusion without doing the experiment.....there are precious few.
Maybe....just maybe...Johnny Sain and the old timers had something when they said that pitchers get better by PITCHING. Remember Sain's quote when asked about why his pitchers did not run many outfield laps..."You don't run the damn ball over the plate".
AS recently as the mid 80's ROger Clemens threw 281 innings at age 24. Seems to me he wasn't abused, as he is still pitching at 45.
by perseman on
Oct 22, 2007 10:17 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Your response indicates...
Research is suggesting a strong relationship between PAP and injuries these days. That means that, on average, an abused pitcher is MORE LIKELY to be injured. It doesn't mean he's guaranteed to be injured. So pointing out Clemens does nothing to refute the arguments of the PAP believers.
Also, you keep saying the old ways had it right. Well, we've listed several reasons why it may no longer be possible for the old ways to work (stronger hitters, lower mound, more strenuous breaking pitches, less prep work in the minors, etc). Those gradual changes mean that it may be that pitching has necessarily had to adapt, and that adaptation has resulted in more stress on the arms.
Again, the research DOES suggest a link between PAP and injuries. There are lots of possibilities for why that is, but the fact is that it IS the case. Yes there are examples of guys who qualify for abuse that didn't get hurt. That doesn't mean that PAP is not strongly correlated with increased injury risk.
by SouthernCub on
Oct 22, 2007 10:29 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
The question.....
I have read the PAP articles and I DO understand their data. Bill James, among other reputable students of the issue, is not entirely sold. I agree that pitchers who are not conditioned to throw 120 pitches per start should not throw that many. I think the issue is not to throw beyond the point that you are conditioned to throw. What I will NOT concede is that being conditioned to throw 125 pitches per start is a physiological impossibility. That is what the PAP'ers are saying.
For those of you who are Shakespeare students, the PAP'ers remind me of Regan and Goneril in King Lear. WHen the old man comes around to visit his daughters with his retinue of 100 rowdy knights, his daughters wonder why 50 wouldn't be sufficient. Then 20. Then 10. Then 1.
At some point, Pitchers gotta pitch, and quit being babied. Otherwise, rosters will be expanded to 30, with 15 man pitching staffs, so as to better accomodate the pitch counters.
by perseman on
Oct 22, 2007 10:53 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Again, you're a bit off target I think...
PAP supporters don't disagree with that. They've never said (at least not the smart ones) that a pitcher throwing 125 pitches per start will absolutely break down. They just say the likelihood is much greater that an abused pitcher will break down. And the empirical evidence supports that. That's why teams avoid it these days: unlike in the past, when pitchers were much less of a financial investment, protecting the investment is much more important.
Are there guys who can throw 125+ pitches per start and not get hurt? Sure. But you don't know ahead of time which guy is that guy and which guy is the one who will break down. All PAP suggests is that there's a greater LIKELIHOOD of injury. And given the money guys make now, teams are much more interested in reducing the risk of injury.
It's common sense. If evidence suggests that your investment is more likely to sustain serious injury doing something, then you should avoid doing it, so long as not doing it is within reason. Aside from it upsetting you that pitchers don't go 125+ pitches very often anymore, I don't see much downside to pitch counts at the moment.
As for your slippery slope argument, that's just silly. The key thing you overlook is that pitch counts have reached a point to which they can't really go down. Unless the rules change regarding crediting wins (not likely), a starter will need to throw at least 80-90 pitches to go 5-6 innings or so. So your King Lear analogy of the pitch count decreasing to 50, then 25, then 1, just won't going to happen.
by SouthernCub on
Oct 22, 2007 12:32 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I see the point, however..
If a guy can't pitch a reasonable number of pitches then he should become a traveling salesman...or a relief pitcher.
by wicubfan on
Oct 22, 2007 12:51 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Yes, but...
Also, reduced pitch counts for starters have implicitly been deemed acceptable by the fact that teams are doing it. Therefore, it is no longer the case that not being able to throw 125+ pitches means you should be a reliever.
Now, if a guy can't throw 80-90 pitches (which is the minimum to be able to consistently go 5-6 innings), he absolutely should be a reliever. But that's not what we're debating. 125+ pitches would be the amount necessary to regularly throw 7, 8, or 9 innings per start. In this day and age with the development of the bullpen specialists, that's just not a necessity anymore.
If a pitcher can't go at least 80-90 pitches, he wouldn't be a capable starter and thus should be banished to the pen. And we've seen evidence of this with Kerry Wood. Wood had problems throwing more than 50 pitches. So, he's come back as a reliever. But setting the minimum at being able to throw complete games in an era where that's just not a necessity (or even necessarily a preferred option) is a bit much.
by SouthernCub on
Oct 22, 2007 2:19 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Some good points..
I very much agree to point #3 which I belive is the major reason behind pitchers injury rather than simple pitch counts. Remember in the 50's-70's the Dodger organization didn't even allow the slider to be throm by their farmhands. Almost every pitcher today has a slider if not a cut fastball.
I think just simply counting pitches is a gross oversimplification of the problem.
by wicubfan on
Oct 22, 2007 11:53 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
PAP
And this has consistently been the position of those people that actually think about the issue of pitcher abuse points. But what the anti's do is to set up a straw man which misstates the actual argument and then knock down the straw man.
by frustratedfan on
Oct 22, 2007 9:59 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
so you're the expert?
Using names like "Gibson" and "Ryan" is a convenient use of examples that fit your criteria (I believe the term is "cherry-picking"), and this further hurts your credibility. If you feel the need to point to examples from back in the day, feel free to mention the copious instances of pitchers who blew out their arm at a young age, and never pitched again, because I assure you, that list is quite long.
by Thelonious on
Oct 22, 2007 10:15 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Is there any chance
I have compared Piniella to Baker and have made a few posts regarding them. However, with the end of this baseball season, this transition period is now over and I pronounce any Baker discussion dead. Any references to him should be anecdotal at best.
Who's with me?
by NO100 on
Oct 22, 2007 9:44 AM CDT
reply
actions
0 recs
It's been said that
Sandberg is retired yet he's still used as an example of what we seek in a player. Do you suggest we put a moratorium on references to him?
by tharr on
Oct 23, 2007 2:37 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I am neither suggesting we forget
Baker is the Reds manager now. The only relevance he has to the Cubs now is in that regard.
by NO100 on
Oct 23, 2007 1:09 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
The Dusty era
by tharr on
Oct 23, 2007 6:46 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Very funny
Still, it's been a long time since I brought this subject up, and between then and now I've made comments on numerous issues. So it's not really fair to say I'm a one-dimensional poster.
Funny pictures, though.
by danimal15 on
Oct 22, 2007 4:44 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I'm just breaking your balls
by Thelonious on
Oct 22, 2007 4:52 PM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Morrissey - What about NLCS Game 2?
There are some things that simply cannot be defended.
At the time, we were screaming to the heavens that Dusty was ruining Prior. Now, with all that has happened and with the benefit of hindsight we know that was the case. And people still defend Dusty?
by ClosingTime on
Oct 22, 2007 11:23 AM CDT
reply
actions
0 recs
Yep
by cubsbak on
Oct 22, 2007 11:46 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Dusty should have
With that said, Dusty's biggest gaff was not bringing in a starting pitcher (clement) to follow up Wood in game seven. That game was close and there is no tomorrow, and that ain't the time to trot out a guy mediocre reliever.
by MPH73 on
Oct 23, 2007 10:24 AM CDT
reply
actions
0 recs
That's what puzzled me so much...
by Al on
Oct 23, 2007 10:43 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Doing it yourself
When you aren't loaded with natural ability, you tend to dive into the game from a cerebral aspect, so you can get more out of your given talent and this helps to create a better understanding of the game below the surface.
by MPH73 on
Oct 23, 2007 11:08 AM CDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
















