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Morrissey on Dusty and Prior/2003 playoffs

Thank you, Rick Morrissey, for writing the column that had to be written in today's Sunday Tribune on Dusty Baker and his managing in the 2003 playoffs.

After two years that I've spent on this site trying to defend Dusty's moves in Game Six, which I was at, I'm finally getting some backing. I'll let Morrissey speak for himself:

"You still can hear the moaning long after (Baker's) departure. Why, why didn't he take Mark Prior out of Game 6 when the Cubs were five outs away from going to the World Series? I don't know. Maybe it's because Prior had a three-hit shutout going into the 8th inning, and he was the Cubs' best pitcher. Perhaps it was because setup man Kyle Farnsworth didn't inspire a whole lot of confidence and Baker liked his chances with a pitcher who had gone 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA during the regular season."

Couldn't have said it better myself.

I'm not a wild-eyed Baker fan; in fact, I think he was awful in many ways - especially personality - and his strange attachment to certain over-the-hill players. But I'm sick and tired of hearing how Dusty ruined Mark Prior through over-use. As Morrissey points out, one study that analyzed pitchers from 2000 to 2006 found that Baker's starters averaged 3.68 pitches per start more than they would have been expected to throw under certain conditions.

"In other words," Morrissey writes. "Baker was not a pitcher killer." As I've been saying.

He notes that Prior's injury problems could have started in college or the minors - or under Baker. Nobody knows. "But that hasn't stopped fans and media members, many of them newly minted experts in biomechanics and kinesiology, from blaming Baker for Prior's undoing."

Indeed.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Baker
Baker should have left Prior in after the Bartman incident his mistake was not going out to calm him down that night.

Prior was melting down.  I'm not saying it would have helped to have Baker go out and talk to him but I can't see where it would have hurt.

by cubstoseriesby100 on Oct 21, 2007 2:29 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Amen
This is and has always been my only real complaint. It was not Bartman that caused the loss, but it was the manager's job to calm his team down after that emotional incident.

Of course, our SS error did not help either. But Dusty not going out to the mound was key for me.

D-LEE!

by airweino on Oct 21, 2007 3:19 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ok, let's look back at that play shall we?
So many here continue to crucify Baker MOST for not 'calming down' Prior after the infamous Bartman play.  The setting again:
Prior was rolling
First guy top of 8th easy out.
Lofton singles to Left
Castillo works the count to 3-2, at which point the 'play' happens.  

Mind you, Prior still was 'lights out' at this point.  Prior clearly still looked composed immediately after the play and on the very next pitch walks Castillo on a good pitch down and in  (that MOST would not lay off in that situation) which is misplayed by Bako and goes to the backstop.  

IT IS AT THiS MOMENT (and appropriately so) that Rothschild promptly came to the mound to 'settle' Prior.  The next pitch, Cabrera hits a grounder to short for a taylor made DP....and we all know what happened.  

It was THAT play that cost us, not Baker's lack of 'settling' Prior after the Bartman incident. If that play happens as it should, there is no discussion here.   Even then, Prior's stuff showed no real decline, but the wheels fell off.

I am not necesarily a Baker fan, however to crucify him  for game 6 in that situation, as many have, I feel is not really fair.  He's got plenty other baggage to harp on, but all in all he's been pretty successful.  

by LuisSalazar on Oct 21, 2007 8:39 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well...
First of all, Lofton was on our team. Pierre doubled after the first out. Second, Rodriguez singled to right, scoring Pierre before the "taylor-made" dp grounder.

by Rynot on Oct 22, 2007 6:20 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oops my bad...
Sorry....Pierre, not Lofton, gets on (sorry, recappping while watching the Indians/Red SOx)
and, yes, Rodriquez singles before Cabrera hits the potential DP ball.  My point is that Baker DID send Rothschild out to settle him down at a very appropriate time.  hindsight is 20/20, but I don't think too many would advocate going out to 'settle' your pitcher on a 3-2 count, when he was appropriately settled the very next pitch.  

by LuisSalazar on Oct 22, 2007 7:43 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I have yet to see
I have yet to see where anyone has said in 4 years that Baker should have removed Prior that night after the incident.

The only thing I've seen is people talking about how he should have gone out there to talk to him when the guy was obviously extremely upset and emotional.

I've heard the defense was that Prior almost was machine like when he was pitching so Baker thought he'd be okay.  But that's exactly the point.  The machine was obviously very upset and emotional that makes it even more of an argument he should have gone out there.

And I think Baker does deserve some of the blame for Prior's problems but I think he deserves less than he has gotten.

I heard something goofy but I wonder if maybe it isn't.  Prior needed more meat on his upper body.  

by cubstoseriesby100 on Oct 21, 2007 2:32 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There is absolutely no doubt...
... that Joe Borowski, not Kyle Farnsworth, should have been in that game, immediately after the (you-know-who) incident. Prior, only 23 years old, was clearly unnerved by it.

Borowski was warming up. If Baker had gone out to argue, or stall, or anything, he'd have been ready.

There were five outs to go to get to the World Series. If you win that game, you have FOUR DAYS OFF!!!

Joe Torre would have brought his closer in with one out in the 8th in that situation. So would Tony LaRussa, so would Bobby Cox. In that situation, Baker failed his team, and us.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 21, 2007 2:35 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree
And it's fine that Prior was left in, UNTIL the very first inkling of trouble (one baserunner is enough).

Every pitcher has a threshold where they drop below the effectiveness of the average middle reliever. For most pitchers, this threshold is reached between 100 and 115 pitches. The back of the Cubs bullpen (even though it wasn't a great pen) definitely stood a better chance of being effective than prior at that point.

I don't have a huge problem with leaving a starter in that long if he's really dealing (although prior was a rookie, so that changes things a bit), but he should have been removed very quickly as the game went on. I'd have a quick hook for a tiring pitcher in the regular season, but that hook should have been immediate in that circumstance.

by Thelonious on Oct 21, 2007 3:15 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well put, Al. As Morrisey said:
Things you thought happened didn't, and things that did happen are forgotten.

Morrisey forgot that Borowski was available, he forgot the real criticism about the Bartman game and he forgot that Dusty's teams choked two years in a row because, among other factors, Dusty failed to calm his players down.

by Fraggin Judge on Oct 21, 2007 7:43 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

To put a goofy childish nerd spin on it...
is BCB giving Bartman the Voldemort treatment. The funny thing is that if it wasn't for riding the train downtown for my internship with the Chicago Machine, this post wouldn't ever have been as clever, if it was clever to begin with.
"Hello again, everybody. It's a bee-yooo-tiful day for baseball."- Harry Caray

by TkGoUWGB on Oct 22, 2007 1:01 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think
most people were mad at Dusty after Game 6.  Or evne Game 7.  I think the perception then was that Dusty had overall led an overachieving 88 win team as far as it could.

And most everyone was still a Dusty supporter and looking for to our chances going into 2004 (especially after resigning Wood, trading for Lee, picking up--a shock now, I know--Todd Walker and LaTroy Hawkins).

The problem with Dusty was not 2003 (maybe for some in retrospect, like a year or two later).  It was the steady decline of the team's focus and motivation in the months, years, after that.

Morrissey doesn't really acknowledge that--instead, he just focuses too much on Game 6, which to me is a bit disingenious because that's not the problem Cub fans had with Dusty.

Morrissey also points out that it was unfair that Lou got the big $300m payroll after Dusty was fired.  But--as many of us have pointed us--Dusty hadn't proved he deserved it.  He got the $ backing in 2004 and squandered it.

peace,
hoosiercubbie

by hoosiercubbie on Oct 21, 2007 2:41 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

First-again- I am not a Baker backer....but
I don't think Morrissey is  being disingenious, He's simply stating the facts.  
Morrissey also points out that it was unfair that Lou got the big $300m payroll after Dusty was fired.  But--as many of us have pointed us--Dusty hadn't proved he deserved it.  He got the $ backing in 2004 and squandered it

Many, especially non-Cub fans, would argue otherwise.  Baker clearly was not given the $$ backup that Lou was given.....whatever did Lou do to 'prove' that he deserved it?  While Dusty did get some $-player support backup in 2004 (and I agree that this is where he failed the most as Cubs manager) to compare what was provided to Lou vs. Dusty is really not fair.  The fact is that Dusty gave us a good run in 2003, should've gotten much farther in 2004, had little chance (injuries) in 2005 and zero chance in 2006 to succeed.  I was not necessarily a Baker backer, but I'm not convinced he was given a 'fair' shot here.

by LuisSalazar on Oct 23, 2007 9:21 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Keith Law on Dusty and overuse of Wood/Prior
If you have ESPN Insider, Keith Law has an article on there that states that Dusty was a horrible choice for a young, rebuilding Reds team primarily for the reason that he's known for shredding young arms.

He cites, of course:  Wood, Prior, Matt Clement, and says he came close with Carlos Zambrano.

On Wood, he states:

"Wood's last six regular-season starts in 2003 included pitch counts of 125, 120, 122, 114, 125, and 122. On Sept. 8, for example, the Cubs scored three runs in the top of the seventh to take a 9-2 lead, and Wood -- already at 107 pitches -- came out to pitch the bottom of the inning. In the playoffs that year, he threw 124 pitches in his first start and 112 pitches in under six innings in his last start."

And on Prior:

"Prior, in the only fully healthy season of his major league career, was 23 years old in 2003. He topped 120 pitches nine times, and in his last six starts, threw 131, 129, 109, 124, 131, and 133 pitches, the last coming in just 6 2/3 innings against Pittsburgh. He threw 132 pitches in his first playoff start, and started the eighth inning against Florida in Game 6 of their NLCS despite showing obvious signs of fatigue."

Maybe the average pitcher under Baker would only throw 3.68 more pitches than the average pitcher in the league, but I would imagine that the number is inflated by Wood and Prior in 2003, and that's on top of the fact that, especially in the case of Prior, we're talking about a young pitcher who's not used to throwing 200+ innings in a season.  Remember, he only had one partial season in the minors before 2003, and that year, he threw about 170 innings, about 60 in the minors and 110 in the majors.

by mtalken on Oct 21, 2007 3:10 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ding, Ding, Ding! We have a winner
Thank you for showing that Danimal's stat about the average number of pitches is BS.  It just goes to show you that Dusty has a short leash for some pitchers and an absurdly long leash for others.  Dusty's problem is that he tries to win every game.... at the potential cost for any other game in the history of the franchise he is managing for.  Sometimes this is great and it greatly explains how he has a .529 winning percentage.  However, it also shows that Dusty is not a great manager for a team with good young pitching.... like the Reds or the 2003 Cubs.  

by IllinoisCubs on Oct 22, 2007 8:19 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BP's Nate Silver...
...put together a big, honkin table about pitcher abuse just about a week ago. Things don't look good for the ol' Dusty.
FREE CARMEN PIGNATIELLO!

by cwyers on Oct 21, 2007 3:22 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Baker was a plague
on the Cubs during his dynasty. And while he may have been criticized for more than he deserved, he did bring it upon himself. How many times did he claim that he was qualified simply because he had some good years with the Giants?

I don't recall Morrissey or many other sportswriters being very critical of Baker during his years in Chicago but most everyone now applauds the change in attitude brought by Piniella. If Dusty did such a fine job why is there a need for change?

As a number of people have pointed out, Dusty was a terrible abuser of the staff. Not enough has been written about Hendry's refusal to control Baker's misuse of a staff with the potential for greatness. Perhaps Morrissey might address that issue rather than feeling sorry for poor old Dusty.

It's not to late to go to Soto.

by tharr on Oct 21, 2007 5:03 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

dusty got plenty of criticism from
the Chicago media. And it was mostly deserved.

But Morrissey's column kind of misses the big point MOST people are bringing up about Dusty being hired by the Reds: Dusty is a terrible fit for that team.

There are some similarities to the Reds of '08 (what they'll probably look like, anyway) and the Cubs of '03 -- veteran nucleus, young arms on the way up, suspect bullpen. Dusty took a group like that, with some late season additions, and won 88 games and nearly won the pennant.

But knowingly or not, he mortgaged the future to do it. If he tries that strategy with the Reds, he'll win 80 games and destroy their young pitchers along the way -- because the Reds aren't as good as the '03 Cubs AND they won't have the money to make midseason moves.

by elgato on Oct 21, 2007 5:58 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I actually think
Dusty might be a good manager again in a place like St. Louis or Seattle, BTW.

by elgato on Oct 21, 2007 6:00 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Until midseason 2006
Dusty wasn't subject to media criticism. By that time it was merely pile on time. With the exception of Miles his refusal to address OBP, overuse of starters, continues use of Hawkins as closer, use of Neifi despite his terrible offensive numbers, etc., should have been the subject of criticism. And, when Stone and Caray were pushed out, the silence of the media was deafening.
It's not to late to go to Soto.

by tharr on Oct 21, 2007 7:49 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jay Mariotti
laid into Dusty starting at the end of 2004. I could be wrong, but he was far from alone.

by elgato on Oct 22, 2007 7:04 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I believe
Mariotti also laid into Mother Therese. I was referring to the Sullivans and Rogers and other mainline sportswriters.

Essentially Baker was given a free ride throughout the majority of his tour here. Compare the criticism that Dusty received here at BCB, particularly beginning with the Stone episodes, with the non involvement of the beat writers.

It's not to late to go to Soto.

by tharr on Oct 23, 2007 2:23 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

2004 is where Baker lost me
No matter what the pompus Mr. Morrisey wants to clim in his revisionist history, hooisercubbie is right.

Joining in when players were whining about umpires, fans, writers, announcers, expectations, schedules, etc.  That's what caused most to lose respect for Dusty.  The hatred that he was subject to is despicable, but the lack of respect was most definitely earned.

by Shanghai Badger on Oct 21, 2007 5:45 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

how about his base-clogging comment
so ignorant and uninformed....plus his fondness for certain underproducing vet utility players like Neiffi, Macias, Ramon Martinez.

I don't blame Baker for playoff collapse. But in retro should have calmed down Prior, gone out there after that play...funny no one has ever really quizzed him on his chicago time he seems to want to put it all behind him w/o answering the hard questions.

I thought he did equally poor job in G7 when threw in horrible Veres it looked like give-up time.

by writerinwrigley on Oct 21, 2007 5:55 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree
Baker should have come out to the mound immediately to calm Prior down.
"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Oct 21, 2007 6:36 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Game 1, not Game 6
Remind me again, who was managing the cubs in Game 1 of 2003 NLCS, who said he was more afraid of Lenny Harris than Mike Lowell?  Which winning would have meant no game 6?  Remind me again who put LaTroy in as closer in 2004, when he had already demonstrated in Minnesota that he couldn't handle it?  Who was it who completely allowed his team to lose focus down the stretch in 2004, yelling at broadcasters and picking fights with Lance Berkman?  Who was it who used the woe-is-us give up routine when Lee got hurt in 2006?  Who was this guy, again?

by SamFels on Oct 21, 2007 8:56 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not defending any of this
It's not worth defending. Dusty wasn't a good manager.

I just think Morrissey is right that Dusty didn't "abuse" his pitchers.

"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Oct 21, 2007 10:11 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This column...
...is one of the biggest pieces of crap I've ever seen. This article really frustrated me when I read it last night and I've been considering emailing Morrissey. His column completely misses the majority of issues that people had with Baker. 2003 playoffs were minor quibbles, but not even in the team photo of reasons people wanted Dusty fired and find him to be a horrible manager.

Morrissey didn't touch on Baker's overall poor strategy as a manager, his unwillingness to lay down the law in the clubhouse (players have acknowledged that Baker had no rules), his inability to push his players to focus during 2004, his "us against the world" mentality that made his teams so painful to root for, to name a few.

Morrissey wrote an article attempting to counter fan complaints aimed towards Baker, yet he only dealt with the ten cent crimes. The columnist was either disingenuous or stupid.

DmL

by dmlichte on Oct 22, 2007 1:27 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed...
it's a nice straw man argument created by Morrissey.

While there are definitely a few things Baker could have done differently in that unfortunate inning, Game 6 is decidedly not what I (or most people) have a problem with regarding Baker.  There were many other more significant reasons to think of Baker as crappy manager:

  • The aura of lack of accountability for mistakes (always blaming others or just bad luck)
  • The lack of understanding of plate discipline and the value of OBP resulted in few chances for our best hitters to drive in runs
  • Refusing to play prospects (instead going with Perez, Hollandsworth, etc) which hindered offseason progress because we didn't get clear pictures of what Cedeno, Theriot, Murton, etc could do given a full-time role
To ignore all that and suggest that everyone's problem with Baker is game 6 or pitcher abuse is definitely disingenuous.

by SouthernCub on Oct 22, 2007 9:43 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

PAP Propagandists
The proponents of the "Pitcher Abuse Points" hokum have never been able to explain how pitchers a generation removed (Ryan/Jenkins/Blyleven/Gaylord Perry, etc. etc.)were able to rotinely carry a workload which would make the babied starters of today cringe, and yet successfully pitch into their 40's.

They offer the half-assed rationale that the pichers of the 60's and 70's faced lineups full of scrawny slap hitters and were able to "cruise" through line ups. Funny, I don't remember Bob Gibson and Nolan Ryan doing much "cruising".

As pitch counts have become gospel, starting pitchers are increasingly becoming more poorly conditioned to pitch. Even 4 or 5 years ago, a starter could throw 120 pitches in a start without the print and broadcast media experts calling for the head of a manager. Now at 100 pitches is considered abusive. What next, 80?

Pitch count orthodoxy make for a less interetsing game, as it has almost singlehandedly erased the concept of a stud starting pitcher. Now all we see are 5 inning wimps followed by a procession of one inning "role players" coming out of the pen.

An they wonder why games can't be completed in less than 3 hours.

by perseman on Oct 22, 2007 9:16 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A few possible explanations in support of PAP...
  1. The progression of hitters into bigger, stronger beings.  Between steroids and weight training, hitters today are MUCH bigger and stronger than hitters in years past.  This results in This has led to:
  2. The continued emergence of the strikeout as the "out pitch," rather than just focusing on getting outs any way they can come.  Due to the ability of hitters to hit the ball further, there's more margin for error on a swing that can still result in a HR.  And a groundball may be hit harder these days for more "seeing eye singles."  Thus, missing bats entirely is a preferred means of getting outs.  Strikeouts are definitely a bigger part of today's game than in years past.
Points 1 and 2 have led to:

3. Increased use of sliders and sharper breaking pitches.  These pitches cause more stress on the body than the fastball/changeup of years past.  In order to get these bigger, stronger hitters out.

An additional point of interest may be the lowering of the mound in conjunction with the steroid/weight training era for hitters.  It is very possible that this combination has led to more injuries.

These are all just hypotheses.  But the point is that researchers are finding a significant link between "pitcher abuse" and injuries.  That would suggest that SOMETHING is different between pitchers of today and pitchers of yesteryear.  And considering the amount of money invested in today's pitcher, I think people are going to pay a lot more attention to anything that might lead to damaging such expensive investments.

by SouthernCub on Oct 22, 2007 9:34 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There's one more point you forgot.
With the expansion of bullpens and starting rotations, pitchers at the minor league level are babied -- on pitch counts from the time they enter professional baseball. Thus, they're never extended out to the 140-150-160 pitch counts that pitchers of an earlier era did as a matter of routine. They're just not used to it.

Also, there's a lot more money invested in modern-day pitchers. Go look through rosters of pitchers in the 1960's and 1970's; you'll find plenty of examples of pitchers back then who had every bit as much talent as Josh Beckett, etc. do today. When they got hurt, they were just discarded. (A few good examples: Gary Nolan, Don Gullett, Dennis Leonard, Steve Busby.) Today, they don't get pushed that far, so they can have longer careers.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 22, 2007 9:58 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ergo.....
Al:

If the Pitch Count Propagandists are correct, then in this era there should be a raft of young, healthy pitchers who have used the benefits of low pitch counts and low levels of "pitcher abuse" to put together years of consistent, effective performance at a high level.

Well, where are these pitchers?? How many starting pitchers have performed consistently at a All-Star level for the past five years?

I would like to compare All-Star rosters over the past 10 years, or even the top 10 ERA's over the past 10 seasons and see how many pitchers have demonstrated ANY level of consistent effectiveness over that period. I can state my conlcusion without doing the experiment.....there are precious few.

Maybe....just maybe...Johnny Sain and the old timers had something when they said that pitchers get better by PITCHING. Remember Sain's quote when asked about why his pitchers did not run many outfield laps..."You don't run the damn ball over the plate".

AS recently as the mid 80's ROger Clemens threw 281 innings at age 24. Seems to me he wasn't abused, as he is still pitching at 45.

by perseman on Oct 22, 2007 10:17 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Your response indicates...
that you don't seem to comprehend the counterarguments presented.  Listing one (or even a handful of examples) of people who didn't suffer injury is not a strong argument.

Research is suggesting a strong relationship between PAP and injuries these days.  That means that, on average, an abused pitcher is MORE LIKELY to be injured.  It doesn't mean he's guaranteed to be injured.  So pointing out Clemens does nothing to refute the arguments of the PAP believers.

Also, you keep saying the old ways had it right.  Well, we've listed several reasons why it may no longer be possible for the old ways to work (stronger hitters, lower mound, more strenuous breaking pitches, less prep work in the minors, etc).  Those gradual changes mean that it may be that pitching has necessarily had to adapt, and that adaptation has resulted in more stress on the arms.

Again, the research DOES suggest a link between PAP and injuries.  There are lots of possibilities for why that is, but the fact is that it IS the case.  Yes there are examples of guys who qualify for abuse that didn't get hurt.  That doesn't mean that PAP is not strongly correlated with increased injury risk.

by SouthernCub on Oct 22, 2007 10:29 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The question.....
that PAP propagandists never seem to answer, is: Can starting pitchers be properly conditioned to throw 125-140 pitches per start without undue risk of injury? My anecdotal evidence indicates that the answer is a strong yes.

I have read the PAP articles and I DO understand their data. Bill James, among other reputable students of the issue, is not entirely sold. I agree that pitchers who are not conditioned to throw 120 pitches per start should not throw that many. I think the issue is not to throw beyond the point that you are conditioned to throw. What I will NOT concede is that being conditioned to throw 125 pitches per start is a physiological impossibility. That is what the PAP'ers are saying.

For those of you who are Shakespeare students, the PAP'ers remind me of Regan and Goneril in King Lear. WHen the old man comes around to visit his daughters with his retinue of 100 rowdy knights, his daughters wonder why 50 wouldn't be sufficient. Then 20. Then 10. Then 1.

At some point, Pitchers gotta pitch, and quit being babied. Otherwise, rosters will be expanded to 30, with 15 man pitching staffs, so as to better accomodate the pitch counters.

by perseman on Oct 22, 2007 10:53 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Again, you're a bit off target I think...
Your anecdotal doesn't actually conclude what you think it does.  The anecdotal evidence doesn't suggest that all pitchers can be trained to handle a 125+ pitch count.  All it concludes is that it is possible for SOME pitchers to avoid injury with that workload.  

PAP supporters don't disagree with that.  They've never said (at least not the smart ones) that a pitcher throwing 125 pitches per start will absolutely break down.  They just say the likelihood is much greater that an abused pitcher will break down.  And the empirical evidence supports that.  That's why teams avoid it these days: unlike in the past, when pitchers were much less of a financial investment, protecting the investment is much more important.

Are there guys who can throw 125+ pitches per start and not get hurt?  Sure.  But you don't know ahead of time which guy is that guy and which guy is the one who will break down.  All PAP suggests is that there's a greater LIKELIHOOD of injury.  And given the money guys make now, teams are much more interested in reducing the risk of injury.

It's common sense.  If evidence suggests that your investment is more likely to sustain serious injury doing something, then you should avoid doing it, so long as not doing it is within reason.  Aside from it upsetting you that pitchers don't go 125+ pitches very often anymore, I don't see much downside to pitch counts at the moment.

As for your slippery slope argument, that's just silly.  The key thing you overlook is that pitch counts have reached a point to which they can't really go down.  Unless the rules change regarding crediting wins (not likely), a starter will need to throw at least 80-90 pitches to go 5-6 innings or so.  So your King Lear analogy of the pitch count decreasing to 50, then 25, then 1, just won't going to happen.  

by SouthernCub on Oct 22, 2007 12:32 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I see the point, however..
This is like telling the star traveling salesman that he cannot travel over an arbitrary number of miles per year because it will increase the likelyhood of being in a fatal accident. The salesman must travel of make sales and the pitcher must pitch to win games.

If a guy can't pitch a reasonable number of pitches then he should become a traveling salesman...or a relief pitcher.

Reds will finish above the Cubs in the NL Central. Book it.

by wicubfan on Oct 22, 2007 12:51 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, but...
you don't know beforehand whether or not the guy can pitch 125+ pitches.  And the only way to find out that a pitcher can't do it is to seriously injury him.  Teams have decided it's preferred to play it safe and reduce the risk of injury rather than risk finding out the hard way that a guy isn't cut out to handle the 125+ pitch count.

Also, reduced pitch counts for starters have implicitly been deemed acceptable by the fact that teams are doing it.  Therefore, it is no longer the case that not being able to throw 125+ pitches means you should be a reliever.

Now, if a guy can't throw 80-90 pitches (which is the minimum to be able to consistently go 5-6 innings), he absolutely should be a reliever.  But that's not what we're debating.  125+ pitches would be the amount necessary to regularly throw 7, 8, or 9 innings per start.  In this day and age with the development of the bullpen specialists, that's just not a necessity anymore.  

If a pitcher can't go at least 80-90 pitches, he wouldn't be a capable starter and thus should be banished to the pen.  And we've seen evidence of this with Kerry Wood.  Wood had problems throwing more than 50 pitches.  So, he's come back as a reliever.  But setting the minimum at being able to throw complete games in an era where that's just not a necessity (or even necessarily a preferred option) is a bit much.

by SouthernCub on Oct 22, 2007 2:19 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Some good points..
The use of steroids as far as I know was not limited to hitters. Might the use of steroids by pitchers also be contributing to injury?

I very much agree to point #3 which I belive is the major reason behind pitchers injury rather than simple pitch counts. Remember in the 50's-70's the Dodger organization didn't even allow the slider to be throm by their farmhands. Almost every pitcher today has a slider if not a cut fastball.

I think just simply counting pitches is a gross oversimplification of the problem.

Reds will finish above the Cubs in the NL Central. Book it.

by wicubfan on Oct 22, 2007 11:53 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

PAP
This is a gross misstatement of the Pitching Abuse Points position.  Is a pitcher who is abused going to necessarily break down?  No.  Is a pitcher who is not abused going to avoid a break down.  No.  But the chances that an abused pitcher is going to break down go way up.  Citing to examples of pitchers that  did not break down does not establish that Pitcher Abuse does not happen any more than citing to examples of 96 year old grandmothers who smoke 3 packs a day and drink a pint of whiskey establish that smoking and excessive drinking are not dangerous.  

And this has consistently been the position of those people that actually think about the issue of pitcher abuse points.  But what the anti's do is to set up a straw man which misstates the actual argument and then knock down the straw man.

by frustratedfan on Oct 22, 2007 9:59 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

so you're the expert?
I'm not completely sold on PAP, but you must realize that your "evidence" is piss poor. In fact, it's weaker than most of what you're trying to refute. Your post is full of spurious claims, inconclusive evidence, and fallacious logic.

Using names like "Gibson" and "Ryan" is a convenient use of examples that fit your criteria (I believe the term is "cherry-picking"), and this further hurts your credibility. If you feel the need to point to examples from back in the day, feel free to mention the copious instances of pitchers who blew out their arm at a young age, and never pitched again, because I assure you, that list is quite long.

by Thelonious on Oct 22, 2007 10:15 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Is there any chance
we can stop talking about Baker?  Whatever he's done is in the past now.  

I have compared Piniella to Baker and have made a few posts regarding them.  However, with the end of this baseball season, this transition period is now over and I pronounce any Baker discussion dead.  Any references to him should be anecdotal at best.  

Who's with me?

by NO100 on Oct 22, 2007 9:44 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's been said that
Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it. For that reason alone, Baker's failures are still referred to as an example of what cannot be repeated.

Sandberg is retired yet he's still used as an example of what we seek in a player. Do you suggest we put a moratorium on references to him?

It's not to late to go to Soto.

by tharr on Oct 23, 2007 2:37 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I am neither suggesting we forget
history nor Baker.  I'm saying that the Baker discussion is over.  This whole diary is about Baker and defending him/criticizing him.  It's no longer relevant.  I don't see Baylor or Trebelhorn diaries here either.  Anecdotal use of Baker is fine and necessary.  

Baker is the Reds manager now.  The only relevance he has to the Cubs now is in that regard.

by NO100 on Oct 23, 2007 1:09 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Dusty era
left me in a state of grief. I'm not ready yet to ignore what he did to my team. However, feel free to move on if that's your preference.
It's not to late to go to Soto.

by tharr on Oct 23, 2007 6:46 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

fine...
... the Dusty Baker discussion is over... for you. If you don't want to talk about it, fine. Why do you feel the need to tell others what they should talk about?

Don't like a thread or topic? Ignore it.

DmL

by dmlichte on Oct 24, 2007 11:52 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Very funny
I can take a joke.

Still, it's been a long time since I brought this subject up, and between then and now I've made comments on numerous issues. So it's not really fair to say I'm a one-dimensional poster.

Funny pictures, though.

"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Oct 22, 2007 4:44 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm just breaking your balls
I'm glad you have a sense of humor, as I enjoy my end of the equation.

by Thelonious on Oct 22, 2007 4:52 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Morrissey - What about NLCS Game 2?
Prior returned for the 8th inning of NLCS Game 2 start with, I believe, a 10-run lead, and more than 110 pitches thrown.

There are some things that simply cannot be defended.

At the time, we were screaming to the heavens that Dusty was ruining Prior. Now, with all that has happened and with the benefit of hindsight we know that was the case. And people still defend Dusty?

by ClosingTime on Oct 22, 2007 11:23 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yep
That was inexcusable.  Also, Dusty failed to use his best available pitcher, Matt Clement, in relief in game 7 because he was saving him for a world series that would never happen.  Instead he kept Wood in too long when it was obvious he didn't have it and later in the game Dusty actually brought in the Cubs worst relief pitcher, Dave Veres.  In a do or die game Dusty used Dave Veres.  That is pathetic.

by cubsbak on Oct 22, 2007 11:46 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dusty should have
gone out to the mound after the Bartman foul ball and brought the whole infield in to calm them down and to halt the Marlins momentum.  How many times have you seen a hitter get a second chance and something good happens for them? It happens all the time and if Dusty had Piniella's feel for the game, he would have done just that.

With that said, Dusty's biggest gaff was not bringing in a starting pitcher (clement) to follow up Wood in game seven.  That game was close and there is no tomorrow, and that ain't the time to trot out a guy mediocre reliever.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 23, 2007 10:24 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's what puzzled me so much...
... about Baker the manager. As a player he DID have a good feel for the game; he was a good baserunner, and drew walks. He was just the opposite as a manager. The mind boggles.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 23, 2007 10:43 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Doing it yourself
and teaching or recognizing qualities in others can be two distinctly different things.  This is probably why many of the best managers in the game were not very good (if at all) major league players.

When you aren't loaded with natural ability, you tend to dive into the game from a cerebral aspect, so you can get more out of your given talent and this helps to create a better understanding of the game below the surface.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 23, 2007 11:08 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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