Math Help

by initram on Nov 15, 2007 1:01 AM CST Comment 20 comments

Help me with my math here...

The Cubs had a payroll of $99M. They are suggesting that the 2008 payroll is $125M. That's $26M to spend.

No more Jones - that's plus $3M, up to $29M
No more Floyd - another $3M, up to $32M
No more Barrett - another $4.6M, up to $36.6M.
No more Rusch - another $3.25M - up to $39.85M

Zambrano goes from 12.4 to 15, or minus $2.6M - down to $37.25M
Soriano goes from 9 to 13, or minus $4M - down to $33.25M
Ramirez goes from 8 to 14, or minus $6M - down to $27.25M
Lee is flat
Lilly goes from 5 to 7, or minus $2M - down to 25.25M
DeRosa goes from 2.75 to 4.75M, or minus 2M - down to 23.25M
Howry is flat.
Eyre goes from 3.5 to 3.8, or minus $0.3M - down to about $23M

Assume Dempster (5 to 5.5M) and Marquis (4.75 to 6.375M) are traded. Assume nothing on Prior ($3.75M).

Assume Wood, Crawford, Fukudome, Matsui, and Kuroda are added:

Wood goes from 1.75 to 4.75, or 3M
Crawford is at $5.25M for '08... assume we give up $1M worth in players, netting $4.25M
Fukudome commands likely $10M per year for 5 years? Assume $10M
Matsui likely commands $3.33M for 3 years? Assume $3.33M
Kuroda likely commands $5M for 3 years? Assume $5M.

Adds up to: $25.58M... or overspending by about $3M. Remember, with Dempster, Marquis and Prior... we are leaving around $15.625 on the table that could go to another very solid pitcher...

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A few debatable assumptions there...

For one thing, I'd be surprised if both Dempster and Marquis are traded. And if they're traded, I doubt we'll get complete savings (we'll probably either have to take on a contract or give some money back). So I'd be surprised if we save $10 million there.

Also, I don't know that Kuroda will get only $5 million per year. So that $15 million may be closer to $2-5 million, just as easily as being $15 million. Of course, it's unlikely that we'll get Crawford, so that balances out the non-trade of one of Marquis/Dempster.

And finally, even if all of your assumptions held, I'm not sure what "very solid starting pitcher" you expect to find with that $15+ million.

by SouthernCub on Nov 15, 2007 7:21 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

A few points

Without really analyzing your math we do know that the Cubs had $96M committed to a thirteen players. With the trade of Jones for Infante, that's more like $93M committed to thirteen players.

Using your math for Kuroda, Matsui, Crawford, Wood and Fukodome adds $27M to the payroll. That would bring the $93M up to $120M... for 18 players. There are still seven active players who need to be added just to the active roster. There are more players than just those on the active 25 who the Cubs will be playing.

Two problems with your analysis. First is that Kuroda, Matsui, Crawford, Wood and Fukodome will be makin more than $27M, perhaps more like $35M or more.

Secondly there has been no indication that the Cubs are going to boost their payroll to $125M. The figure thats been tossed around is $115M.

DmL

by dmlichte on Nov 15, 2007 10:23 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Sullivan's article yesterday...

...can be found here. In it he states: "Hendry's payroll is likely to be raised from $100 million to $120 million-$125 million, which should give him plenty of leeway to find the caliber of player he's seeking."

by seang03 on Nov 15, 2007 10:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I went through and used the contract...

...values off Cot's Baseball Contracts, and then went ahead and guessed at the contracts of the arbitration players. The total salary committment I came up with, before any free-agency signings took place, was $103 million, after arbitration signings are taken care of. I assumed Prior and the Cubs would keep him at this year's salary level, not because I believe that but because I wanted him accounted for and it was what I felt the safest route was.

Here it is in convenient spreadsheet form, if you want to check my thinking. It's a Google Spreadsheet, so no download required.

FREE CARMEN PIGNATIELLO!

by cwyers on Nov 15, 2007 10:33 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Those figures do NOT include...

...Jacque Jones's $2 mil we're paying the Twins. I went ahead and repurposed a 40-man roster spreadsheet I had been working on, and he's not on the 40 man, so he's not on my list. Sorry.

Also, the 25-man roster indicators are just my best guess, and are kind of haphazard at that. I'd be more than willing to debate them, except for where at this point I don't think they matter.

One more thing -- Neal Cotts has one more year with the organization before he hits free agency. What are we doing about that? Has anyone heard from him at all?

FREE CARMEN PIGNATIELLO!

by cwyers on Nov 15, 2007 10:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

looking at that and seeing

Ohman and Cotts each making 1.6 and 1 million, respectfully, thats sick! I guess its becouse they are leftys.

Can we give Cotts back to the Sox for a sprinkler and a few feet of hose, we're needing them at the moment.

I propose a toast to the great 100th anniversy gift known to mankind - A CUBS WORLD SERIES VICTORY!

by BigZ 4 Cy on Nov 15, 2007 10:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You are assuming...

... that Mark Prior will get paid based on his 2007 salary. This could save the Cubs a couple million if they non-tender him and sign him to a lower-dollar contract.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Nov 15, 2007 10:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Or they could non-tender him and he could leave...

...which saves even more money. Like I said, I didn't make that assumption because I had any confidence in it, I just made it because the range of options here is so wide that I just stuck with a conveniently available figure.

FREE CARMEN PIGNATIELLO!

by cwyers on Nov 15, 2007 10:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My Point With This Posting...

... was to illustrate that with adding all of the players that we see in the news today can:
(1) fit within the parameters we've seen with the 25% payroll increase assumption, and
(2) puts a really nice product on the field for 2008 and beyond.

So far I have not seen anything that I am glaringly missing, right?

by initram on Nov 15, 2007 3:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Big Problem

I think your estimates on the prices for Fukudome and Kuroda are low. But here's my real concern. If you trade for Crawford, you are going to give up at least two of the following 4 cheap talents: Pie, Marmol, Soto, and/or Hill and they then will need to be replaced by FAs costing 3-5 mill for the RP, 4-8 mill for the C, 8-15 mill for the CF and SP. So, the price for adding Crawford in addition to his salary will be an extra 10-30 million.

by DGU on Nov 15, 2007 4:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I See Where You Are Going...

... but I highly doubt the Cubs will give up that much for Crawford.

First, I think Marmol is untouchable. Personally, I also think Hill is, too. I doubt Pie goes in that deal, as TB has plenty of other outfielders - regardless, that's moot since we wouldn't have to replace him. And, as for Soto, this is the first I heard speculation that he would be in there.

While we may be meddling into other threads here, a package of Cedeno, Marshall, E Patterson, and other pitching prospects wouldn't hurt us. It likely doesn't get the deal done, too.

That said, for the sake of argument, if we remove Crawford from the list and go with Pie in center... there's another $5.5M to go to Fukudome/Kuroda (that can help supplement where you think the estimates are low).

Substituting Crawford for Pie and keeping everything else in this pitch constant still makes for an improved team in 2008.

by initram on Nov 15, 2007 5:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I just don't get why

everyone things Marmol is untouchable when the place the Cubs have the most depth (even if they don't sign Wood) is right-handed relievers. I know he was really, really, really good and he has the added benefit of minimal mileage on that arm of his, but Marmol may be the Cubs best trade chip.

That said, I can guarantee you that a package of Cedeno, Marshall, Eric Patterson, Gallagher, and Veal would not tempt the Formerly Devilish Rays for a second. They might not even call Jim Hendry back for a few days if he floated that one. And when they did, they'd probably say, we could do that trade for Johnny Gomes.

The reason I speculate that Soto could be in a Crawford package is because he is one of the few pieces the Cubs could offer the Rays that some other team would not be likely to offer better on. If we offered Hill, there are better pitchers out there the Rays could get (Lincecum from the Giants, for example). If we offered Pie, someone could offer a better prospect at a position they don't have as much depth at.

If this Crawford rumor is legitimate, I'm convinced the trade talks have to include one of Marmol or Soto, as well as another big piece and some smaller pieces.

For a point of reference, look at what we gave up for Pierre. Crawford has 2 more years of value at rock-bottom bargain prices, is younger, is a better defender, has an inflated value because of his being a top 10 fantasy player, has more power and the potential of adding more still, is younger, etc., etc. So, if you thought Nolasco, Pinto, and Mitre were a lot - that doesn't come close to what you'd have to pay for Carl Crawford.

by DGU on Nov 16, 2007 11:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I dont even know where to start with the math...

So let me just ask you what 'very solid' pitcher do you think is out there that the Cubs should/could add?

by IllinoisCubs on Nov 15, 2007 5:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Silva? Willis?

by initram on Nov 15, 2007 5:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

For one Willis is not a free agent. For another, it's very debatable if Willis is actually "very solid" at this point. Look at his numbers last year. They were really bad.

Silva is a #3/#4 starter. He's not a $15 million per year starter, nor is he remotely close. At $7-8 million per year, sure.

by SouthernCub on Nov 15, 2007 6:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Point

We all know Willis is not a free agent - does that mean we can't get him? Of course not... we can get him. Again, I bet you 30 teams will rate him as being "very solid"... better yet, most would say he is a #1, #2 on their staff.

As for Silva, he's the best FA pitcher out there.

Now back to the point... applying $15M to starting pitching, or shoring up the bullpen, is plenty to do some damage to improve this team.

by initram on Nov 15, 2007 7:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wrong

The talent the Marlins are asking for Willis is not close to being worth it. He's an average starter who had a great season and a half a couple of years ago. This team does not need anymore lefty starters to boot.

by IllinoisCubs on Nov 15, 2007 8:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What If You Trade Hill??

You could then go for another lefty, as I don't see Marshall starting in 2008...

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/rumors/post/Cubs-could-catch-Crawford?urn=mlb,53478

by initram on Nov 15, 2007 9:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My point is...

there isn't much out there when Silva is the best thing available. $15 million is a lot of money, but pitching isn't falling off of trees this year.

And as for Willis, there may be people who still highly value him. I'd say they're making a mistake. I'll err on the side of caution when it comes to a guy who had an ERA over 5 and a WHIP over 1.60 this year, while pitching in a pitcher's park. Especially when that guy has shown a trend of increasing walk and hit rates in each of the last 3 years.

by SouthernCub on Nov 15, 2007 9:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs