Bill James Top 50 Young Players - No Cubs
On SI.com, Bill James today listed who he thinks are the top-50 young players (under age 29) in baseball today.
Not a single Cub made the list, and Prince Fielder was ranked number one. Argh!
Seriously, what does it say about the Cubs' system of talent hunting that not a single player was in the top 50? Nothing good. I could try to quibble with James, and say that Carlos Zambrano should be on the list (he's 26 and deserved a place, in my opinion), but other than that, it's hard to think of a young Cub who deserves to be here.
James also breaks down the young talent team by team, and the Cubs finish 29th. Zambrano is the only A-class young talent on the team, according to James, while Rich Hill and Carlos Marmol get "B"s and Theriot, Marshall and Murton rate Cs.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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33 comments
Comments
I have not read the article
For years, Hendry has over valued the old school 5-tool analysis, while other clubs have done a much better job at focusing on the skills that go beneath the surface. His flawed philosophy is still rearing it's ugly head in regards to how he puts one dimensional rosters together. Piniella was able to clean a little of this up in June, and I hope he is listened to and they can keep moving in the right direction.
by MPH73 on Nov 2, 2007 2:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I haven't seen this either.
Plus, how does he define "young"? Under 25? In that case Z doesn't qualify, and neither does Rich Hill, but Marmol probably should be there.
by Al on Nov 2, 2007 2:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Link and answer to Al's question
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/11/02/billjames.talent/index.html
He only excludes players 29 and over, so yes - Zambrano could have been included. Sabathia and Peavy (both of whom are 26) are in the top 50.
"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman
by danimal15 on soon
by danimal15 on Nov 2, 2007 2:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Its an interesting piece.
The made players on the Cubs (Soriano, Ramirez, Lee, DeRosa, Lilly) are too old to qualify and Zambrano is good, but doesn't quite equal Santana, Sabathia, or Peavy.
It's an interesting read.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/11/02/billjames.talent/index.html
by N Oakley on Nov 2, 2007 2:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps
by NO100 on Nov 2, 2007 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think age is a big factor...
Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, Johan Santana, Chase Utley, Mark Teixeira, Erik Bedard, and Adam Dunn.
by DGU on Nov 2, 2007 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Age is a HUGE factor...
In other words, a 28 year old (like Santana) has to be twice as good as a 23-24 year old, because the 24 year old has twice the years until 33.
by SouthernCub on Nov 2, 2007 5:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I read the article
On Zambrano, I bet this past season impacted his fall. We'll see next year whether it was a blip or a downward trend.
by rlpete on Nov 2, 2007 3:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The next Pujols
by NO100 on Nov 2, 2007 3:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
maybe because at the rate he is gaining
But seriously, if Cabrera doesnt make his fitness a priorty his skills will dimish much more rapidly. What he has done to himself is sad.
by JB 23 on Nov 2, 2007 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
by NO100 on Nov 3, 2007 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it the Cubs drafting or their coaching?
If Patterson hadn't been rushed and taught a little patience, or at least not forced to try and become a kind of hitter he was not, would he be on that list?
What happened to Juan Cruz in 2003 that totally derailed his development?
What if Prior had been rested a little more down the 2003 stretch? Along those same lines, (we all know it's not just a coincidence that those 2003 pitchers have all broken down - Wood, Prior, Z, and Clement), where would Zambrano be with a little more rest all through 2003-2006?
When Hee Seop Choi collided with Kerry Wood, he was hitting .244/.389/.496. Was it really the collision that ruined him? Or was a manager who didn't value low-AVG, high-OBP offense just glad to have an excuse to bench him?
Not every prospect turns out, of course, but the Cubs have had a lot of good prospects under Jim Hendry's reign. I can see a different scenario in which the Cubs had three or maybe even more players on this list.
But even then, we should recognize that Jim Hendry has turned some of these prospects into good players through trades - Bobby Hill turned into Aramis Ramirez. Choi turned into D-Lee. Juan Cruz turned into Tim Hudson - oh well, that was for the Braves, but we got Andy Pratt! :)
by DGU on Nov 2, 2007 4:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
2003
by TMOX on Nov 2, 2007 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice post TMOX
And Prior, Wood and Z weren't pushed any harder than hundreds of young pitchers had been in the past. In fact, not one of them ever threw a 230-inning season or had more than 4 CGs in a year.
by danimal15 on Nov 2, 2007 8:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And how many young pitchers
Now, whether making it to the playoffs in 2003 was worth ruining the career of two great young pitchers is open to debate, but to me it seems like a pretty stupid debate.
by Chitown Mojo on Nov 2, 2007 8:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The debate is still open
by danimal15 on Nov 2, 2007 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure?
In fact, your point about Dusty's bullpen highlights one of my points. Juan Cruz was a good pitcher before Dusty and was a phenomenal pitcher in 2004 when traded to the Braves. Why was he no good under Dusty? Would a different manager have been able to bring out the value in Juan Cruz, bolstering his pen so that he could have saved his starters some pitches?
by DGU on Nov 2, 2007 9:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Considering the circumstances
by MPH73 on Nov 3, 2007 8:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Getting back on base...
Boston shut down Clay Buchholz despite a no-hitter and did not put him on their post-season roster even after Tim Wakefield's injuries.
The Yankees created "Joba Rules" to protect their young pitcher and never let Phil Hughes get his pitch count over 106. He only had two outings over 100.
The Phillies kept Cole Hamels generally under 110-115. Kyle Kendrick was kept under 90 pitches with a few outings up to 100.
The Rockies kept Franklin Morales under 90 pitches and Ubaldo Jimenez generally under 100.
The Padres kept Peavy and Young under 110 with just a handful of outings getting up to the 115 level.
The Angels, suffering a late-season breakdown of Scot Shields, still kept Jered Weaver under 110.
The Indians, stuck with that Joe Borowski guy as closer, kept Fausto Carmona under 110 and let their horse, C.C. Sabathia, push up to 119 a few times but generally kept him under 110, too.
The Brewers kept Gallardo under 110 and half the time under 100.
Find me any pitcher, let alone a young pitcher with a history of arm troubles, on a contending team that got his pitch count over 120 once. Then we can talk about Bartman levels.
As a reminder, here are the Prior and Wood 2003 pitch counts from September on: Prior: 131, 129, 110, 124, 131, 133, 133, 116, 119.
Wood: 120, 122, 114, 125, 122, 124, 117, 109, 112.
by DGU on Nov 3, 2007 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
On your original question
In terms of hitters, I think it is a complete organizational failure. Scouting, drafting, coaching. The Cubs for a long time have preferred drafting the toolsy type players. Unfortunately they haven't been able to draft the right ones and coach the ones they do draft. When Patterson and Pie are the highlights of the past 10 plus years, something is wrong.
by rlpete on Nov 3, 2007 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure
In contrast, the Cardinals have only 2 position players to make that list in the 2000s. The Brewers had 6. The Astros had 7. The Pirates had 7. Only the Reds in the NLC surpass the Cubs with 12.
Several of those Cubs prospects were successful up through at least AAA: Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno, Hee Seop Choi, and Bobby Hill.
Corey Patterson was not successful in AAA (until 2005) but got promoted anyway, which may have been the mistake that ruined him.
The ones who flopped or stalled in the minors include Brian Dopirak, Ryan Harvey, Nic Jackson, David Kelton, and Luis Montanez.
I think the jury is still out on Pie and Cedeno. There are plenty of great players that struggled their first year in the majors. I believe Pie will succeed. I'm not so sure about Cedeno.
But you look at Cedeno, Choi, Patterson, and Hill and you can at least wonder if they had been given different opportunities at the major league level if their development would have continued as it had in the minors.
Regardless, the Cubs will likely enter 2008 with two and probably three up-the-middle sarting position players from their farm system, and if it were not for the excellent FA signing of Mark DeRosa, they could have all 4 up-the-middle positions played by guys from the farm system. Their corner infielders came from trades of former top prospects. Their bench will have a number of guys that at least spent time in the Cubs farm system. I'd argue that that is fairly productive. It's not Tampa Bay, but the Cubs are in a much better position than, say, the Cardinals.
by DGU on Nov 3, 2007 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree the Cardinals are worse
The second problem is they can't develop an impact player. It's been 20 years. I call that failure. The Cubs may have had 10 on the BA list compared to the Brewers' 6 but I'll take Prince Fielder over all 10 of the Cubs players.
by rlpete on Nov 3, 2007 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But the Brewers have concentrated on hitters...
Not counting relievers, the players that came up out of the farm system and made a major impact from 2000-2006 in the NL Central were:
Cubs: Wood, Zambrano, Prior
Brewers: Fielder, Sheets
Astros: Oswalt, Berkman
Pirates: Gorzelanny, Bay (And Bay they got by trade)
Cardinals: Pujols
Reds: Dunn
Am I missing anyone?
I think it's too early to judge those emerging in 2007.
The other thing I think is relevant is that the value of Hee Seop Choi gets undersold because he looks like a flop now. But he got the Cubs Derrek Lee, and a 28 year-old Lee is at least close to being on a par with today's Fielder, once you take their defense into account.
I also think 2002-2007 Carlos Zambrano will end up being worth more wins than 2006-2011 Fielder, again when his defense is taken into account.
by DGU on Nov 3, 2007 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Concentrating on pitchers
Hendry's value system is flawed and it has showed up in the lack of good young hitters and also in how he puts together the major league roster. Bottom line, the baseball world zipped right by Hendry about 10 years ago, and he has yet to adapt.
by MPH73 on Nov 4, 2007 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What do you mean?
Do you mean the farm system should have been able to spit out 3-4 major leaguers or 3-4 impact players? You can't mean the latter, because from 2000-2006, the Cubs are the only team in the NL Central to spit out 3 impact players.
If you mean 3-4 major leaguers, well, the Cubs have done that, from 2002-2003.
I think I'd be more inclined to agree with your indictment if I believed Pie and Soto were going to flop, which I don't. I also think that Eric Patterson could start in the majors next year and be a successful 2B. The only reason he won't (unless he is traded) is that DeRosa has been such a success. In addition, Theriot, Fontenot, Cedeno, Fuld, and Fox are all going to be useful parts, if not starters. That's a productive system.
And I don't think concentrating on pitchers is such a bad idea when they are so expensive and so few are getting to free agency. If the Cubs had not concentrated on pitchers, there would have been no 2003 pennant. Without Zambrano, Hill, and Marmol, there'd have been no 2007 pennant either.
by DGU on Nov 4, 2007 3:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Do you call
Concentrating on pitchers is fine, but you should still be able to produce an acceptable number of everyday players over a 15 year period - if you know how to scout and value talent properly. Now, if they happen to have 2-3 guys pan out now, that does not excuse their 15 year period of producing virtually nothing.
by MPH73 on Nov 4, 2007 7:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Z belongs anywhere on that list.
by tyger1147 on Nov 2, 2007 5:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
The thing is, most of our young kids have just got the chance to prove themselves.
So they didn't have overnight success, so what. That's not a measure on their potential. Not everyone is Albert Pujols, and figures it out about five minutes after picking up a ball.
Still, Z should be on that list, as should A-Ram who is in fact 29 (by my math) if they counted 29 and down.
by Snake Plissken on Nov 2, 2007 7:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I could discuss the specifics...
But, and I'm sorry, but this list sucks.
Runs Created is inferior to BaseRuns, there's no positional adjustment (a shortstop and a first baseman's offensive production are NOT just as valuable), and rather than using a REAL defensive metric he uses speed scores. Then he piles on a few arbitrary measures that don't correlate to anything that he bothers to explain, and voila, rankings!
It's a toy stat with little effort to try and make it MEAN anything, and it ignores -- oh, pretty much the last ten years of baseball research.
I like Bill James well enough, I suppose, but this is junk -- straight, no chaser.
by cwyers on Nov 2, 2007 7:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Braun
I just found that surprising yet people like Theriot are C Class (who I think should be B).
Sometimes I find these people to be very biased to or against the Cubs. I'd love to read someone who is truly impartial.
by ak123 on Nov 2, 2007 7:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Question
by rlpete on Nov 3, 2007 8:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
by ak123 on Nov 3, 2007 9:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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