Two Dominoes

by initram on Nov 24, 2007 9:43 PM CST Comment 65 comments

I have been banging my head against the wall over here wondering why we haven't seen many moves yet. I mean, for Pete's sake, by this time last year we were in the midst of a Hendry fury as he had the Cubs busiest offseason!

Then, I settled down and thought it through some more.

Here's a thought to provoke more conversation, debate, wishes, aspirations, prayers, et al. It's as simple as two main acquisitons allowing for the other moves to happen. I call them the two dominoes that need to fall in order for other doors to open. These two are:

(1) Kazuo Matsui

I think this move allows the Cubs to platoon Theriot and Matsui at shortstop. It makes us more flexible, more athletic, and speedier. Several other diaries have clearly brought about the concern of his defense at short. But, clearly, he brings speed and on-base percentage to the team - two things that we had difficulty with in 2007.

If Infante stays on this team, and with the acquisition of KazMat, we have essentially opened up the potential moves of both Fontenot and Cedeno. I think Cedeno is the key piece here, as he enables us to get Carl Crawford.

Cedeno + Hill + Gallagher for Crawford. We now have our right fielder and leadoff hitter. Crawford & Matsui batting 1 - 2 reminds me of the Dernier & Sandberg "Daily Double" days. 82 SB between them in about 125 games (average). Wow!

The holes created? (a) We need either a long man (who is likely Kevin Hart if he does not take a starting pitcher's role), or a first man starting pitcher from the minors. I believe you can get a respectable return of a player in a trade of Marquis/Dempster for prospects (more of a salary dump, but get the prospects!) (b) We need a new #3. As you will see later, Lilly becomes our #3...

(2) Kosuke Fukudome

Obviously, if the above happens, this moves Crawford from right to center. It gets us our power hitting, left handed, excellent defensive, on-base monster player. As reports have shown, executing (1) above may enable this to happen, but it does much more than that.

The beauty of this is that this is free! Well, not free, since it will cost money in a contract for him, but he is a free agent (without the posting fee!). Again, we have talked about him ad nauseum in other diaries. My opinion is that while he may not be the best, I am convinced he is a perfect match for our needs. Metsblog says 3/30 can land him - I think it may be more. Still, 5/50? Go get 'em!

What is more important is not just the gaping hole that he fills, but it alleviates the need for us holding onto our prized top prospect (or science project) - Felix Pie. He is likely the best CF solution for the cheapest dollars. Who could use him? Uhm, err... Minnesota? Pie + Marquis + { who else } for Johan Santana... what would get the deal done? The first piece (and likely the most coveted player from our team that the Twins would want, especially now because of Halo Hunter) could very well be available.

The next thing to ask would be whether the Cubs could afford the record-setting contract extension he will command (>$126M?)

Thanks for allowing me to dream. And, have fun!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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not even close

to what it would take to land santana or crawford....

and matsui doesn't know how to get on base, at least his .325 career OBP would suggest he doesnt know how to get on base

by DartmouthCubsFan on Nov 24, 2007 10:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

No chance at Santana...

and I'd be VERY surprised if there would even be a chance at Crawford. Absolutely no chance at getting both (sorry to kill the dream!). We just don't have the prospects at our disposal to land both Santana and Crawford. The Twins are going to want several top-tier prospects, and will have no interest in Marquis. If anything, Marquis would reduce the value of the trade from our end, because he's not very good and he's somewhat costly. We MIGHT have enough to get Crawford, but almost certainly not enough to get Santana.

To be honest, I'd guess Matsui and Fukudome would be the only major acquisitions for the offseason, if we happen to get them. This year isn't going to be like last year, for a few reasons: (1) we don't have the financial wiggle room that we had last year, (2) there just aren't the big names available like last year, and (3) we aren't as needy as we were last year, so fast and furious moves aren't a necessity.

by SouthernCub on Nov 24, 2007 10:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

nice idea

I'd trade Cedeno and Sean Marshall, but not Rich Hill. IF we trade Hill, i'd wait until after the new year and closer to spring training so that all the losers in the Santana derby are desperate for any good pitching they can get their hands on.

by petrie on Nov 24, 2007 10:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Platoon

I'm not a big fan of platoons. I say give someone a spot, that way they won't get out of their "rythum" or whatever.

That said Theriot does hit 26 points lower against righties, and matsui prefers righties.

However, to be honest, why sign Matsui? We already have Fontenot, who hits .297 against righties. if you want a platoon, shuffle him in.

(Yes I know, rookie inlimited at bats, and I don't know about his SS defense.)

Don't sign Matsui, it's not worth it.

Your package for Crawford makes since to me, but may not to the Rays. They'll probably want more.

The Twins, meanwhile, will probably hold onto Santana until July (if they believe they can't compete in the Central) then trade him at a much higher price.

by Snake Plissken on Nov 24, 2007 10:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Fontenot doesn't work for a couple of reasons

First of all, Lou doesn't trust him at SS. He even switched DeRosa and Fontenot in the middle of the game and DeRosa hasn't played SS in quite sometime. Fontenot can only play 2B.

Second, Fontenot hit .397 in his first month and then went on to hit no higher than .233 in any other month. I'm sure his split vs. righties next year would be much lower.

by IllinoisCubs on Nov 24, 2007 11:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Your two dominoes are realistic, but...

...that's about it. Those other moves just aren't going to happen.

For #1, let me put my Tampa GM's hat on... Cedeno, Hill, Gallagher for Crawford? Yeah, right. How about Rocco Baldelli instead. You guys need a center fielder don't you?

As been well-documented elsewhere in BCB, Tampa Bay is notoriously difficult to deal with. They have a bit of a reputation for overvaluing their own players, even the good ones.

For #2, let me put my Minnesota GM's hat on... Pie, Marquis and (someone else) for Santana? Yes, I will absolutely make that deal in a heartbeat. Wait... what's that? You wanted Johan Santana? Oh, I'm sorry - I thought you meant Ramon Santana (SS, Class A Beloit Snappers, .225/.325/.672)...

I'm sorry, but the only chance the Cubs have to get Johan Santana is if he foregoes signing an extension with whoever he gets traded to and goes on the market for 2009. With the names being discussed from Boston and both New York teams, there's no way the Cubs can match that talent/potential, even if you throw Soto and Marmol into the mix.

I say forget the sub-moves and just be happy if your two main dominoes come about. And be ecstatic if only #2 happens.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Nov 24, 2007 11:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Looks Like Santana To The Cubs Is Surfacing...

...elsewhere.

http://cubshotstove.blogspot.com/

"It would take a little more than just Pie to pry Johan away from the Twins though. It would likely take Pie and 3 other mid to high level prospects, possibly Hill, Gallagher, Veal, or all three. Whether Hendry would be able to pull this trade off or not is unknown, but I would imagine if this trade were to happen, Hendry's first priority would be a long term extension, which could command close to $130 million over 5 or 6 years."

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/johan-santana-1.html

"Cubs: Long shot and first I've heard of it, but George King and Joel Sherman suggest the possibility. Felix Pie would have to be involved. Hard to see the Cubs signing Santana to a record-setting extension given their ownership situation."

by initram on Nov 29, 2007 12:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The Mets

inquired about Johann Santana. They were told the package would have to start with Jose Reyes.

And you want to get him for Pie, Marquis and someone else? Unless that someone else is a time traveling Ryne Sandberg from 1984, the Cubs don't have enough for Santana.

The Twins are making it clear that they need a young superstar in order for them to part with Santana. Simply put, we don't have one.

Hill, Gallagher and Cedeno wouldn't get you Crawford, either.

The artist formerly known as JoshinLA

by Josh77 on Nov 25, 2007 12:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

If I had that time machine...

I'd keep Sandberg and offer them the 1990 Top Prospect Mike Harkey, but insist that they also take the 1984 Ron Cey in the deal since they have a 3B opening.

by DGU on Nov 25, 2007 4:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Dreaming indeed

The Cubs do not have the prospects to get Santana, even for a year, and I suspect it would take Pie, Hill and Marmol to get even Crawford.

But that's OK, because I think Crawford just adds to the reason the Cubs have trouble scoring. Too little contact, no hitters to work the counts and frustrate opposing pitchers, etc.

It all starts with Fukudome, and I fear the person who suggested that this is starting to look like Rafael Furcal all over again is right. If Fukudome falls through, it could be a very disappointing offseason.

After Fukudome, I think the Cubs need to focus on pitching. Go after Dontrelle Willis, not Carl Crawford. As it stands now, think of the rotation if Zambrano goes down. Do you think Lilly, Hill, Marquis, Marshall, Guzman is going to even win you 80 games?

The Cubs need to add a quality starter and a proven reliever if Wood signs elsewhere. But you still need Fukudome to give you a chance at a more patient lineup.

by cubz1963 on Nov 25, 2007 3:06 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Beyond...

... the fact that the Rays are impossible to deal with, you'd be leaving a gaping hole in the rotation because you're suggesting dealing our rejects for the best pitcher in baseball, which would leave the Twins laughing all the way from Minneapolis to Chicago.

To the poster above, exactly how is the Fukudome situation comparable to Furcal? Fukudome hasn't even met with his US agent yet (that happens this Thursday), let alone met with any MLB team or negotiated with anyone. So how can this be "right"?

Just because time has gone by without a signing doesn't mean he's going somewhere else. As has been written here and elsewhere often -- we do not know what happens in MLB general managers' offices, no matter how many things MSM sportswriters tell us.

At least let the guy talk to Jim Hendry before you write him off! Remember also, Hendry wanted Furcal and from what I understand, was willing to match the Dodgers' offer, but was nixed by Andy MacPhail. That won't happen this time. (Also, the Furcal deal doesn't look all that great now, does it.)

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Nov 25, 2007 3:59 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I hope....

you are right about Hendry being able to spend Al.

For some reason, I think the man will not sign a "big fish". I can't see the ownership group expanding payroll. Fukudome ends up on the Southside.

"You are an asshole": NDcubsfan

by timeforachange on Nov 25, 2007 6:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It's already been stated...

... that payroll will increase to about $115 million. That ought to be enough to sign Fukudome.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Nov 25, 2007 7:09 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sullivan stated

that it would be between $120 and $125 million. I believe he's the only person from the Tribune to comment on the payroll. I know Rozner and Miles have as well and while I'm not a big fan of Sullivan, I'd tend to believe someone from the Tribune about payroll.

by Maddog on Nov 25, 2007 8:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Why ...

... is the Tribune relevant? I know enough people who work for both the Cubs and the newspaper and WGN to know that they really are separate entities; no one from the Tribune newspaper has any more of an "in" than any other writer.

That said, I think your higher figure is correct, and should leave lots of room for a Fukudome signing.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Nov 25, 2007 11:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Because they own the team.

Or still do until the sale is final anyway. I'm sure you're right that beat writers don't have any more of a clue than any other writer, but I'd still believe the Tribune over anyone else at this simply because they own the team.

by Maddog on Nov 25, 2007 12:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Again, my point was...

... the COMPANY owns the team. The NEWSPAPER doesn't own the team. Their management teams are separate.

It'd be like asking me about inside stuff at Disney World because I work at ABC, which is owned by the Mouse.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Nov 25, 2007 1:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

South side?

Has anyone linked the Sox to Fukudome? Haven't heard this.

A littlew side note for people...FWIW, I believe Henry Blanco has his house up for sale. I know this could mean a variety of different things but I just thought I would throw it out there since we are all bored and for the third freakin week in a row, the Bears game time screws me...my daughter naps from 12-3, not 3-6!

Try convincing a 1 1/2 year old that the Bears game is actually Sesame Street or the Wiggles.

DAMN the Bears!

MMMMM...Golden shrimp and chicken combo from Ron of Japan!

by Kinky Reggae on Nov 25, 2007 9:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

well, when they show the linemen...

...you might be able to convince her the TeleTubbies are on! ;-)

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Nov 25, 2007 11:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

tried it...

didn't fall for it. She is a clever one!

MMMMM...Golden shrimp and chicken combo from Ron of Japan!

by Kinky Reggae on Nov 26, 2007 11:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Furcal

I think he means he doesn't want it to end up like Furcal if Fukudome doesn't sign with the Cubs where Hendry turned around and traded three pitching prospects in a panic for Juan Pierre. He doesn't want Hendry in panic mode if he doesn't get Fukudome.

by Cub Fan in Card Country on Nov 25, 2007 11:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I understand the concept.

The problem was, Hendry HAD Furcal and had his deal ripped out from under him by MacPhail, without a backup plan.

This time, there's no one who will nix a good deal made by Hendry. I assume he HAS a backup plan, but I don't think it will be necessary.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Nov 25, 2007 12:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Clarification please...

Maybe I'm still suffering from turkey hangover, but I'm a little confused here. As I recall, Hendry made a pretty good offer to Furcal, but the Dodgers swooped in at last minute with a much higher offer (at least in terms of $/year) - I think it was 3 yrs for $39M.

Are you saying Hendry wanted to match this offer and MacPhail said no? Are you also saying $13M/yr was a good deal and that the Cubs should have matched that offer? Or did MacPhail somehow sabotage Hendry's original offer, and Furcal had no choice but to take another offer.

Unconfuse me, if you please...

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Nov 25, 2007 2:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

From what I understand...

... Hendry was willing to match LA's offer (and in hindsight, that wouldn't necessarily have been a good idea), but was nixed by MacPhail.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Nov 25, 2007 3:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I Do Recall...

... we were on the verge of signing Furcal. I remember reading daily, even hourly, that the deal was imminent.

Then, the Dodgers sniped us.

by initram on Nov 25, 2007 3:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, at least I now finally have something

good to say about MacPhail. All this time, I thought it was Hendry who said no. Regardless of who made the call back then, I applauded the Cubs for showing some fiscal restraint and sanity - no way was a leadoff hitter worth $13M a year.

Little did I know how much things would change in a couple years... ;-)

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Nov 25, 2007 3:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That is not how it was reported

According to published reports at the time
my old friend Ned Colletti made the Dodger offer
contingent on Furcal and his agent NOT contacting the Cubs to see if they would top it.Basically here is our offer , take it or leave it but no talking to the Cubs.It might have been a cover story for someone but Hendry never disputed and I suspect it was true.

"It's the Cubbies. There's always a vibe. It's the greatest vibe in baseball." Greg Maddux on Cub fan's optimism even after the 06 debacle.

by jessica on Nov 25, 2007 3:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I was comparing it to Furcal

Only in the sense that a left-handed hitting right fielder is the Cubs' offseason primary target. To fail on Fukudome seems to mean you risk failing at what seems to me to be the best way to address the OBP Achilles' heel.

It does seem like there is very little Hot Stove buzz about the Cubs right now. At least other than Kaz Matsui, which as others have said seems ludicrous unless it is linked to Fukudome.

by cubz1963 on Nov 25, 2007 12:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd like to remind everyone...

... that some of the Cubs' best deals and signings came WITHOUT buzz.

Who had heard any buzz about the Derrek Lee deal before it happened?

The Soriano signing last year came pretty much out of nowhere.

The Aramis Ramirez trade came together overnight.

Maybe Hendry has something up his sleeve that he's keeping so close to the vest that none of the "sources" have any info yet.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Nov 25, 2007 12:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Al..

I have a feeling that you have some inside info about some upcoming transactions ;-)

by cubsnlinux on Nov 25, 2007 2:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll give you that

Buzz does not translate into action, though it is fun.

Kenny Williams pointed out recently that the most talked about deals rarely come to fruition.

I think most of us can agree that the Cubs' needs are:

A left-handed hitting right fielder or center fielder. (Fukudome, $10 million per)
A No. 3ish starter (Silva, $10 million)
Another solid reliever to slot in, especially if Wood bolts. (Gagne, one-year flier?)

Hopefully, by dumping Dempster this scenario could work out, payroll-wise.

If you have dependable bats in left and right, I think you can go with defense in center (Pie) and hope his bat comes around.

by cubz1963 on Nov 25, 2007 4:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The Contrarian's Perspective

Some responses

I don't think the Cubs need a lefty bat as much as they need an additional OBP source. With Sori and Pie and whoever is at SS unlikely to post OBPs over .335, either the RF or a different SS option needs to get up over .345. Since Murton is probably going to have an OBP between .350 and .380, I'd rather be too right-handed and play Murton than bring in a Geoff Jenkins for some overrated lineup balance. The other thing the Cubs have to watch out for is ending up with too many left-handed bats that you'd rather not bat any higher than 6th in the lineup. If the Cubs find they have signed a KazMat that hits for a .325 OBP instead of the hoped for .345 or higher, you could end up with the ugly lineup situation of either having to bat three lefty .325 OBPs 6-7-8 or moving one to the two-hole and having your #1 and #2 hitters averaging a .330 OBP. If the Cubs are looking for a left-handed bat, they want to make sure that bat can fit in either at the #2 hole, #4 between Lee and Ramirez, or solidly at #5. #2 is ideal, because Pie, if not in '08, then in '09, will likely make a good #5/#6 hitter, but with a platoon split that will need to be surrounded by righty bats. Another point about this righty/lefty issue - Soto throughout his career has hit RHP better than LHP, so the Cubs could very easily end up with a problem of having the bottom half of their lineup neutralized by LOOGYs.
So many people mean different things by numbering starters 1s, 2s, 3s, etc. And when you add "ish" to 3, the term becomes, well for lack of a better word, vagueish. For that reason, I'm not sure if we agree or not. I am interested in Silva, especially if the Cubs IF defense is strong and the grass is thick. But most 3ish starters (by which I mean guys posting ERAs somewhere between 4.35 and 4.55 in over 100 IP) are probably going to cost more than their marginal worth. Consider that Sean Marshall posted a 3.92 ERA in 100 ML innings, that Sean Gallagher posted a 3.39 ERA in 61 AA IP and a 2.66 ERA in over 40 AAA IP, that Jason Marquis, even, posted a 4.60 ERA. Maybe Silva pitching in that 3 spot gives you better starts than Marshall/Gallagher, but you've got to sign him for 4/40 at least and maybe 5/60. I actually think the last thing the Cubs need is a #3/#4 starter. I think they need a guy who could be a #2/#1, but could also be a bust, a guy like Mark Prior or Freddy Garcia.
I think the relievers are in good shape even if Wood bolts. Howry, Marmol, Eyre, Wuertz are a good 4. You might want to make sure that someone out of Pignatiello, Ohman, Cotts, Marshall can be your LOOGY or you may want to get one of those.

Since I'm playing the contrarian, let me go the whole way and also suggest that the player who makes the most sense for the Cubs is not Fukudome, not Silva, not Carl Crawford, but WILSON BETEMIT.

Now that A-Rod is signed, Betemit should be expendable. Given that the Yankees gave Scott Prcotor for him, trading Michael Wuertz for him seems a fair price; maybe we can even get him for a lesser arm. Betemit hit .231/.359/.474 for the Dodgers and if you can get past that low AVG, you see he's got the OBP, the patience, and some serious power masked by the low batting average. He just turned 26 and with the right coaching, he can play SS. He's a switch-hitter who would platoon nicely with Ryan Theriot. Forget KazMat - get BETEMIT!

by DGU on Nov 25, 2007 7:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Betemit

If you are talking about the one-time Braves phenom SS prospect, then I heartily agree with you -- get Betemit! (If you can afford him, that is.) If you are talking about the fat, former phenom, Yankees backup 3B Wil Betemit, I'm not sure that he would help. Not much range at SS anymore (unless he loses 30 lbs) and lots of Ks. Still, for the right price he might be worth the gamble.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Nov 26, 2007 5:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Funny

I got a good laugh out of that response. Sure - I'd much rather have the phenom prospect, but I don't think he'd be affordable if he still existed. It's the facts that the current Betemit is overweight and that he Ks and that his AVG was below .250 and that teams keep unloading him that make him such a nice option. He'll be cheap!

And, then, here's the question - will his defense really be worse than some of the much more expensive names being tossed around - Johnny Peralta? Miguel Tejada? I mean if you tell him he starts off in a platoon and gets a chance to win the job outright or forever be a backup - maybe he finally gets motivated, maybe he learns the Kerry Wood diet, and maybe not and you still have Ryan Theriot at SS and a nice 3B backup for when Aramis needs to rest the legs.

by DGU on Nov 26, 2007 9:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Al

Two or three weeks ago, you wrote that you thought Fukudome would be signed "within a week." What happened there? Was that pure speculation on your part, or were you given information to lead you to think that?

by kanderber on Nov 25, 2007 2:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Due to Halo Hunter...

... add the Rangers/Twins to the Fukudome derby.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/rangers-rumors.html

Add the Rangers to the Cubs, the Phillies, the Yomiuri Giants and his former team, the Chunichi Dragons. I would toss the Nats and possibly the Twins in that group, and there are probably other teams where Fukudome would fit.

I still can't believe these numbers (3/30) are being tossed around. I thought for sure he would command a lot more in MLB, like 4/48.

Let's go get him.

by initram on Nov 25, 2007 2:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Fukudome

only wants three years, but with a clause that the signing team cannot offer him arbitration at the end of it. (This is the deal Hideki Matsui signed, btw.)

Simply put, he wants to be a free agent again after three seasons. Offering a fourth season not only wouldn't help, it would be counterproductive.

The artist formerly known as JoshinLA

by Josh77 on Nov 25, 2007 3:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Give him the 3 years, then...

... and outbid everyone else. I realize they'll have to wait till after he meets with his US agent on Thursday, but after that, get it done!

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Nov 25, 2007 3:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If it's only a 3-year deal, sure.

Otherwise I wouldn't want anything to do with the guy. He'll be a league average right fielder. I think the Cubs best option in RF is to sign Jenkins and platoon he and Murton. You're looking at a projected OPS in RF with those 2 of about .875. Fukudome won't come anywhere near that. .825 is best case scenario for Fukudome.

by Maddog on Nov 25, 2007 5:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Not a terrible idea

But I have to wonder if Jenkins 2007 was a down year or the start of his slow decline.

2006 & 2005 Jenkins would be a great platoon with Murton. A really attractive one now that I look at his numbers... but his numbers are really down. He went from a .306/.381/.490 to .262/.326/.482.

The big red flag for me is his BB/K ratio went from 44/86 to 29/97. That's almost 1/2 to 1/4.

Fukudome on the other hand has always had a BB/K raito of 3/4 and his .OBP for the last three years has been about .438. That will go down for sure but Ichiro's .OBP was around .425 before he came to America and his .OBP has been around .380.

Finally, you have to think of defense. Murton and Jenkins are butchers in the OF. Jenkins played LF all last year and while I don't think it will be a transition to move back to RF (hell the move to LF might even explain the lower numbers), you still are getting subpar defense from a Murton/Jenkins platoon. Fukudome is an excellent defender.

The more I think about it, the more a Jenkins/Murton platoon could work as a backup plan, but Fukudome should certainly be the first choice.

Links for:
Jenkins: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5948/splits;_ylt=AlVA.My2PDcKsVgYD0x3U3mFCLcF
Murton: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7597/splits;_ylt=AoqOUfVn4G81pgB5.YlCPjeFCLcF?year=2007&type =Batting
Fukudome: http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064
Suzuki Japan: http://www.japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=28
Suzuki America: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6615/career;_ylt=Aodtykv76ttMKo08aGETwOCFCLcF

by IllinoisCubs on Nov 25, 2007 6:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

All good points

An additional one - the Brewers say they are in the market for a LF and still aren't showing any interest in Jenkins - they should know him best.

As a backup plan to Fukudome, I really like Ryan Church. If the Boy Wonder won't deal for a reasonable price, I'd look at Milton Bradley's estimated time of arrival, figuring Murton/Ward could play RF for a couple months. Brad Wilkerson is also interesting on a one-year deal and if he busts, then, again, you can do worse than Murton/Ward.

Here's another question - would a Ward/FuldorPagan/Murton platoon end up being better than most of the non-Fukudome, non-injured free agent options? That does take a lot of roster space, but still...

by DGU on Nov 25, 2007 7:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Fuld...

... is no more than a spare part; I wouldn't want to see him as part of any "regular" arrangement.

Church isn't a bad backup plan. I know the Cubs have had interest in him before, and I suspect they'll go right after him if they can't get Fukudome.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Nov 26, 2007 4:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You gotta know when to Fuld 'em

I think that because of Fuld's plate discipline and general skill base, he's the kind of hitter who in very limited playing time, where scouting reports can't get too detailed on him, may put up very impresive rate stats, like Theriot in '06 or Fontenot for part of '07. If you made Fuld a defensive corner of a three-way RF platoon, playing him mostly when a Cub fly-ball pitcher is on the mound facing a righty opponent, he could be valuable.

Is that enough qualification to show that I agree he is no more than a spare part and yet a potentially valuable spare part when combined with Murton and Ward?

by DGU on Nov 26, 2007 8:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

doesn't A-Rod

look nice right about now?

All that bluster about having extra money to sign other people and we could realistically get NOTHING out of this year's free agent class.

Reeeeeaaaal glad we didn't use the salary room we had to sign the best player in baseball.

MURTON!!!

by tal1286 on Nov 25, 2007 9:30 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

and one other thing...

just cause I'm curious...for those of you who had that concern when there was a chance we might sign ARod. Can you honestly tell me that you would rather have Matsui and Fukodome + maybe $7 million per year for a mediocre SP or a pretty good RP instead of A-Rod?

That seems silly to me.

MURTON!!!

by tal1286 on Nov 25, 2007 9:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Was there ever a chance we'd get ARod?

I suspect that any "chance" to sign ARod was more message board speculation than anything else.

by SouthernCub on Nov 25, 2007 10:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

A-Rod was not leaving NY

I really doubt there was much serious discussion with any team other than the Yankees.

by rlpete on Nov 25, 2007 10:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Also...

"Matsui and Fukudome + $7 million" is substantially less than what it costs to get ARod. Matsui and Fukudome will cost around $15 million at amost. That leaves $15 million (when you consider the incentives ARod's getting for breaking HR records.

Note as well that the money isn't only relevant for this single offseason. You have to also consider that neither Fukudome nor Matsui would be signed for more than 3-4 years. That means that in a few years, the team will have enough money to either sign new free agents or be able to actually afford to keep the young players that will be arbitration eligible.

Obviously ARod is the best player on the planet. But he was never in the cards for the Cubs. So there's no reason to complain about it.

by SouthernCub on Nov 25, 2007 10:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Dreaming allowed

but don't get it confused with reality. It won't happen.

by rlpete on Nov 25, 2007 10:48 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Kuroda Update

http://www.rotowire.com/roto_to_gnews.htm?ID=240691&sport=mlb

"The Cubs, Phillies and Tigers were not mentioned in the Times report, despite earlier interest expressed by those teams."

by initram on Nov 25, 2007 3:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Another Idea

Lou seems to be in love with speed, so KazMat is high on his wish list. Platooning him with Riot doesn't make sense for two reasons:

It doesn't make the team faster, since only one would play at a time. (Bench speed could be supplied by E-Pat or Cedeno at minimum wage.)
KazMat can't play SS, so DeRo would have to shuffle back and forth or play SS full-time.

What would make more sense, since Lou doesn't seem to value DeRo's lack of great speed (despite the OBP) and great power, is to sign KazMat to play 2B and Riot to play (perhaps? unless...) SS. DeRo becomes trade bait.

How about DeRo + (Hill or Marshall or Marmol) + prospect for Jhonny Peralta? For the Cubs, this yields speed at 2B and power at SS (cheaper than Tejada). For the Indians, help for the pitching staff, a high OBP 3B (or 2B), the ability to move Cabrera to SS, a prospect, and leadership for a fairly young team. If the Cubs can then sign Fukudome for RF, they would have more speed, less power than the average RF, but more power than the average SS.

I just sense that Hendry would not make the mistake of signing KazMat to play SS when he hasn't played there successfully in the ML -- he would be on the hook for a three year mistake, and would still be forced to move DeRo to SS, OF, or trade him if/when KazMat's SS defense proves awful.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Nov 25, 2007 7:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'm an Indians fan in my other life...

...and speaking as an Indians fan, I kinda like that deal as long as the pitcher is Hill or Marmol. Cubs can even keep the prospect. DeRosa is the kind of versatile, gritty, high OBP, seasoned pro that would fit in well with that club. And adding another lefty (Hill) to the rotation is a great safety net if they can't re-sign Sabathia. Or adding Marmol to the pen is a great safety net if Borowski's luck finally runs out.

Now if I put my Cubs hat on, I might do that if the arm is Marshall, but I doubt Hendry is going to give up Hill or Marmol. If Hill or Marmol is involved, the headliner coming back is going to have to be a little bit bigger than a Jhonny Peralta type.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Nov 25, 2007 7:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Long- and short-term parking

I don't think Hendry cares if he overpays on short-term contracts. DeRo was supposedly overpaid; Blanco was definitely overpaid; Neifi was overpaid. But Hendry went down to the wire with Aramis, trying to get the best bargain he could. I think Hendry figures that with a 125 mill budget, he can afford to pay a part-time player 5 mill for a few years.
So, a 3/15 contract for Matsui might not be much of a "hook" to be on from Hendry's perspective.
I also think that Hendry trusts his ML scouts (who have proven themselves, I believe) and if they think Kaz can play SS at least as well as The Riot, then he most likely can.

Finally, I like kicking the tires on Peralta, but I think a player that would be cheaper, better, and left-handed is WILSON BETEMIT (see above).

by DGU on Nov 25, 2007 9:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

that was a big rumor

I may be wrong but, that was a big rumor at the start of the off-season. If i am correct, I believe the deal was Murton, Marshall and someone else for Peralta.

by Believeincubbieblue23 on Nov 25, 2007 8:36 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Twins

Allow me to join the chorus about Pie + Marquis + { who else } not being nearly enough for Johan Santana.

But take Marquis out, and maybe you've got the makings of a deal for Matt Garza.

If the Cubs' OF comes together in such a way that Pie is expendable, then I'd love to use him to get a young starter with upside like Garza.

by davearm on Nov 25, 2007 11:22 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

OK, what would it take to get Haren?

Seeing some reports out of Oakland now that Bonds was indicted (they were going to consider signing him before the indictment), Beane may consider an old-fashioned rebuild. Haren could be on the trade block.

Would Beane take 2-of-the-3 Marshall, Gallagher, Hart?

Haren's 3-year ERA and WHIP are 3.65 & 1.21 for 220+ IP and 34 GS per year; in the AL.

Forget about Santana, he's out of the league for a Cubs trade. Wanna make a splash, sign him as FA if he gets there. Latest ESPN article shows him wanting a $25M a year contract for 6 years.

Our grandparents used to say, "I hope the Cubs win the Series before I die". Now teenagers are saying it. Let's change that next season!

by blackhawk24 on Nov 26, 2007 7:04 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

In a word, no.

I'd venture a guess that amongst baseball people, Haren is just a notch or two below Santana in terms of talent, and add in the fact that he's under contract control for 3 more years (at a very low cost), makes him a very attractive commodity. So unless you're willing to put Hill, Marmol, Vitters or Soto into play, I don't think Beane will be interested.

I'd say Hendry's best bet is to let the interest in Haren build, all the while a lot of teams will continue to think they have a chance at Santana. Then he should very quietly pull off a deal for Bedard. Go to the winter meetings, figure out what MacPhail wants and then give it to him.

The free agent pitchers pretty much suck this year, so the trade route is the way to go. And since demand outweighs supply, it's gonna be musical chairs. Whoever doesn't get Santana, will go after Haren. Whoever doesn't get Haren, will go after Bedard or Willis, etc. etc. Better that Hendry aim for a reachable target whiles others are still shopping and as Al would say... get it done.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Nov 26, 2007 10:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget

Bedard is under contract for two more years too. He's not going to be cheap either. The O's are in initial discussions for a longer term deal with him. I really think you would have to knock MacPhail out with a deal to get him to trade him this year. If they can't work something out, he might come easier after next season.

Personally, I don't think the Cubs have the pieces to trade for either Santana, Haren or Bedard. I would also expect that teams will ask about Soto.

by rlpete on Nov 26, 2007 11:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

The Cubs don't have the pieces to compete with the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox who will all be in on Santana, Haren, or Bedard to some extent. Just looking in-division - I don't think the Cubs could outbid the Brewers or Reds if they decided they wanted to trade for one of those guys.
The only way the Cubs could get one of the three is if McPhail wants to trade with the team he knows best, just like Ed Wade did with Philly on the Lidge trade. And then, the package has to include Pie and you end up creating another hole for yourself.

by DGU on Nov 26, 2007 11:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I would bet

that Bedard will not be moved before the up-coming season.

by rlpete on Nov 26, 2007 1:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Did Anyone Catch The Hendry Wood Press Conference?

In there, Carrie Muskat from mlb.com had asked if Hendry had any update on Fukudome. He quickly replied, "No".

Although it was hard to hear, I think her follow-up question was if he had made a decision yet, and again, Hendry's quick response was "no".

I presume the follow-up question was whether he was approving a Japanese offer vs. making the decision to come to MLB?

by initram on Nov 26, 2007 10:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I think...

... the answer was "no" because nothing can be known until Fukudome meets with his US agent on Thursday.

If we could all get off the edges of our chairs till then, not only will we be a lot more comfortable, but you'll actually be able to find out information about this when it happens instead of the endless speculation.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Nov 26, 2007 10:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

How Long Will Piniella/Hendry Wait on Pie?

I know that Gerald Perry was going to be working with Pie this winter. I also read that Piniella was going to be heading down to work with Pie also for two weeks in December. Collectively, the team is doing all they can to make it work with Felix.

You have to wonder, how long do you wait? I know that we have bantered around this topic on this forum several dozens of times, but what do we think that the Piniella/Hendry tandem will do?

From the latest Cubs beat reporter Carrie Muskat Mailbag segment, she writes:

Pie needs to get on base, and the Cubs sent hitting coach Gerald Perry and Minor League hitting coordinator Dave Keller to the Dominican Republic to work with the young outfielder. Through Friday, Pie was batting .203 in 20 games for Licey, with four doubles, one homer, six walks and 14 strikeouts. He's still struggling against lefties, hitting .160 compared to .227 vs. right-handers, and, for some reason, he's thriving in road games, hitting .304 compared to .152 at home.

by initram on Nov 26, 2007 10:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

My guess is at least another season...

and that's at the minimum. It's not like they've been waiting for forever for the guy. He was 22 this year and got his first taste of big league action.

I suspect he'll be given every chance to prove himself next year in as low-pressure a role as possible. I'm sure he'll have some more growing pains, but will eventually get it.

The guy has torched AAA pitching for 1.5 years now. There's really nothing to do but let him see if he can figure it out at the big league level.

by SouthernCub on Nov 27, 2007 10:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

20 games in the Dominican...

...is not an awful lot to be judging a player by. I guarantee you the Cubs sent Pie down to Licey with a specific set of things they wanted him to work on mechanically; if he is making the adjustments the organization wanted him to make, then he is succeeding, regardless of his stat line says in what is essentially a short-season training camp for him.

FREE CARMEN PIGNATIELLO!

by cwyers on Nov 27, 2007 6:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs