Prior Poll and Marquis
From MLBtraderumors.com (Yeah I know).
And I quote:
"The Cubs are listening to offers for Jason Marquis, who is owed $16.25MM over 2008-09. So maybe they are still in on Kuroda."
"Crasnick reports there would be huge interest in Mark Prior if the Cubs non-tender him. As in, pretty much every team in baseball. Crasnick's source indicates that Prior and the Cubs don't have the best relationship."
OK, we all knew it was coming, I'm just the messenger.
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My view is yes.
My point, however, is the man is just 27 years old. The Cubs can afford a few million on a pitcher with, when healthy, Cy Young potential.
For anyone who scoffs at that, please see Chris Carpenter.
by Snake Plissken on Nov 28, 2007 11:46 PM CST reply actions
It's not so simple
The Cubs want to sign him to a two-year deal, because it wouldn't make any sense to pay him for two months of pitching and then have him walk at the end of the season. (He'll be eligible for free agency after this season.) But if Prior refuses to sign a two-year deal, then they have to let him go because offering him arbitration is pretty worthless because of his injury situation.
Take a shot....
I'm guessing they've already done this...
Of course, it all could be bologna. We've already seen plenty of evidence of these writers and sites showing they have no idea what they're talking about.
Here's the question
I know some of you are convinced that he's not going to be at that level of play anytime in '08, but I think there is at least a 1-in-10 chance that he will be, and to me, that's worth 4 mill.
To me, if we're going to rehash the Prior debate, it's worth everyone posting their odds that Prior could be a playoff-caliber pitcher in October 2008.
I don't the the issue
We all know shoulders are touchy and the likelyhood of him having difficulties in 08 is probably higher than him being a consistant effective pitcher. I would give him a 1 in 5 chance of being in a position to start an important game down the stretch. IMO, the most likely scenerio would be this; he has some set backs along the way in the spring and summer and most likely would start fewer than 7-8 games during the season, with limited effectivness.
You also have a possiblility of him having a relatively major setback (before he pitches in a game) and is basically shut down for the entire year. To me, this is probably as likely as him pitching like he did in 03 and 04 from summer on.
All in all, if he is not willing to give the option year, I go in a different direction in regards to having another body available with him out of the picture.
You know what's funny?
I sat next to Jerry Prior (his dad) on a flight the day after Game 7 against the Marlins. He had a lot of negative things to say about the organization (although most of them were directed at Dusty and Sammy, LOL). But a couple things really stuck in my head:
- He didn't see Mark and Kerry staying together for the long haul because one or both would have to take the Yankees huge offer that would eventually come.
- He didn't want his son to be the Dan Marino of baseball, getting close to a championship at a very young age and then never getting another chance (i.e., because he stuck with the loser Cubs).
Sounds like Jerry Prior...
Instead of becoming the Dan Marino of baseball, Prior may be remembered as the Todd Marinovich of baseball.
I would think
If he thinks their act will play better somewhere else, go for it.
BINGO
Prior's father has managed Prior's baseball activities all his life, including making him transfer from Vanderbilt to USC to engaging Tom House to be his personal coach to the virtual exclusion of most all Cub coaching. We've joked here before that one of Prior's ailments was vaginitis, and in a figurative sense the joking might be closer to the truth than is known.
Given all this...
Todd Marinovich of baseball...
I voted yes
Even all super hot women have some guy in their life that just got sick of their crap.
by NO100 on Nov 29, 2007 9:21 AM CST reply actions
Or...
The way Mark Prior's arm was used in 2003 probably cost the Prior family 75-125 million dollars, maybe twice that if he could have maintained a long career. It's one thing, I'd guess, if you got injured and the fans still loved you. It's another when it's not your fault you got injured and then the fans call you "soft" and the management doesn't defend you.
I just don't get why anyone thinks Prior should show the Cubs ANY loyalty, other than that, as Cubs fans, we wish he would.
Apart from the "soft" comments...
Different personalities react to these situations in different ways. The way we've seen Wood and Prior react to similar troubles is enlightening.
Yes and no
I also think Wood doesn't blame the Cubs for his injuries, while, at least, Jerry Prior does, and probably Mark does, too.
If you think Mark is wrong to blame the Cubs, well, then, you're probably going to say, "Where's the loyalty?" I don't think he is wrong.
Loyalty
However, to further the analogy, the Cubs have had a lot of girlfriends. None of the other ones are saying they were abused. In fact, they almost always have said that they really liked dating the Cubs. But maybe the Cubs one night did something unforgivable. Maybe Prior has a point and is right. All I'm saying is that his experiences and comments are different than the experiences and comments that other girlfriends, er players, have said.
by NO100 on Nov 29, 2007 10:20 AM CST up reply actions
Girlfriends may talk among themselves
And to further the analogy to another level of absurdity - some girls think it's just the way things are that boyfriends knock them around a little. Some pitchers are themselves opposed to pitch counts. (Do we now need to add a "This thread and the comments in it from both perspectives should in no way be considered to condone spouse abuse, something that is always bad"? Consider it done.)
But you're right that in today's business, mutual player/management loyalty is extremely rare. Just look at the Bagwell situation in Houston and how Todd Helton was almost traded. Whatever we think of Prior, we should be glad for the relationship Kerry Wood and the Cubs have.
OK, enough with the analogy
But getting back to the whole professional relationship between the Cubs and Prior, it seems that he has a bitterness towards them that other players don't seem to have. Lee and Ramirez both came back and signed contracts that were below what they could have recieved in the open market. I'm not saying that's loyalty at all, but I am saying that they saw an organization that they wanted to be a part of and were willing to give a little to do that. Maddux didn't need contractual language to have a no-trade clause. It was a handshake between him and Hendry.
I don't know what happens in these personal interactions, but it seems that, based on public comments and actions of other players, Prior's impression of the Cubs organization is very different than the norm.
Prior may be right, but to suggest that perhaps Prior might also be a bad apple, is, in my opinion, completely justified.
by NO100 on Nov 29, 2007 11:11 AM CST up reply actions
The psychoanalysis on this thread ..
IMHO, if we take this up a step, the analogy of the Cubs relationships with their players have been trying to be more like grudging polygamists lately, especially with A-Ram and D Lee, while Soriano is bound to the Cubs for a long time to come. I think the honeymoon was fraught with promise and frustration. Variety is the spice of life, ain't it and the Cubs have their girls on the side also. I hope their abuse is over, but they occasionally have their dark secrets (Ohman) and their flirtations are rumored everywhere.
You guys should create a cable TV show on CLTV with Dr. Phil about this, and then maybe a reality show based on it. I would pay anything to watch a season of it, or buy the DVD boxed set at the end.
Good thread .. !
by cubnational on Nov 29, 2007 11:57 AM CST up reply actions
Ha!
by NO100 on Nov 29, 2007 1:47 PM CST up reply actions
Please - it's bad enough that Phil Rogers is
I Don't Get The "Abuse His Arm" Bit...
Well, there is a pattern
Wood - Arm Surgery
Clement - Arm Surgery
Is there a correlation between their arm troubles and 2003? Who knows, but there does seem to be a trend there.
Which says to me.....
You could be right
Perhaps it didn't cause immediate damage but to continue to put him out on the mound, well, I'm not doctor, but may have caused damage to progressively happen.
Exercise some common sense......
by PriorandAramisfan23 on Nov 29, 2007 11:34 AM CST up reply actions
What the hell do you need hindsight for........
by PriorandAramisfan23 on Nov 29, 2007 11:53 AM CST up reply actions
Again, How So?
You've already said you can't be convinced.......
Shit man, I dunno......putting your franchise pitcher back on the mound immediately after he falls on his pitching shoulder. I can see that being abuse. Definitely devoid of common sense at the very least.
by PriorandAramisfan23 on Nov 29, 2007 12:17 PM CST up reply actions
But...
Estes - No Surgery
Clement - 181 innings in 2004 and 191 innings in 2005
But...
Is Estes still pitching?
Did Bob Howry and Scott Eyre also struggle this year after Dusty Baker's overuse in meaningless situations?
Did Chad Fox's return from injury get annihilated after Dusty's insane back-to-back 20 pitch, then 25 pitch outings April 24 and 25th?
Do I really need to go on? Should we go look at what happened to the Florida pitchers in 2007 after people suggested Joe Girardi might be pushing them too hard in 2006?
That sounds like a personal problem to me.
Yeah. Really not our fault.
Google "pitcher abuse points" or something.
Estes
You are also changing the argument. I won't disagree that Baker didn't push these guys in 2003. It's just that a lot of people want to state as a fact that Baker destroyed Wood and Prior by that overwork.
All I'm trying to do
I don't think Wood was destroyed soley by Baker. Wood was overused before Baker.
Prior lands soley on Dusty Baker, or at least on Dusty and Darren if Dusty is still holding Darren in front of him as a shield.
I mean, yes, some pitchers can take more abuse than others, but I think when you look at the larger data pool, it is clear Carlos Zambrano and Livan Hernandez are the exceptions not the rule.
As for Estes - yes, the point is that he's not any good - that's why he was used less down the stretch in 2003 and why no one is tempted to leave him out there for 130 pitches in the hot summer sun.
Prior has to share in some of the blame
In addition to the point
You need to look at pitch counts
And it's particularly because the real problem is throwing when worn out. If your body can take throwing 100 pitches, it's not that big of a deal to throw 100 pitches 5 times in a row, but if your body is really working from pitches 105-125, that's when the real damage occurs.
Think of it like exercising. The real weight loss occurs when the heart rate is up and you're really pushing your body. Prior got pushed way too hard and often several times in a row.
Then what.....
What then?
My suggestion to you if you really want to investigate this question is to compare how some of the other successful teams in the major leagues used their young pitchers, even as they were down the stretch in pennant battles.
Exhibit A would be the Red Sox who after Clay Buchholz threw a no hitter did not put him in their play-off rotation and didn't let him throw over 70 pitches again, so that he would not risk injury.
Exhibit B would be the Yankees and the Joba Rules.
Other teams get this. Thankfully Lou gets it. I'd say hopefully Dusty still doesn't get it, except that as much as I want to see the Cubs win, I don't want it to be at the expense of other players' bodies and careers.
Fwiw, we are in full agreement on one thing - Santo forever, indeed!
Here is the problem with
Let's assume that Prior's long list of problems were initiated by a supposed overuse in 03. If that is the case, why have most of his problems occured during spring training, after having 4 months to rest and prepare for the next season? If you recall, he didn't come out of spring training ready in 04, 05, 06 or 07. If his issues have been overuse, he should be at his strongest after a long rest and slowly fade away as he builds up innings during the season. With him, the pattern has been the exact opposite - never ready out of ST, but got better as 04, 05 and 06 went on. Usually, if you have been abused problems occur after a number of innings not after a long rest.
He has had achilles, elbow and most recently shoulder problems. That strikes me as someone who is simply fragile, or possibly is not doing the right things to prepare during the offseason.
No one knows the orignation or cause of his problems and it's pure speculation to pin it down on one cause. The only thing you can do is look at patterns, and a guy who has been overused usually does best after a period of downtime, not the opposite.
Look, I'm not a doctor
This is a highly imperfect analogy, but I also know that cars which aren't taken care of and are abused over a long period of time sometimes manifest the problems they have developed after sitting cold for a time and then when you try and start them up the problem is apparent.
So, of course, it's possible that Prior's biology is partly to blame. But we KNOW Dusty's use was irresponsible. If it wasn't most teams wouldn't have instituted pitch counts. We KNOW Prior's dad thinks it was irresponsible. And so the original question is - does Prior have a good reason to be upset with the Cubs? I think he does.
Imagine you owned a classic FIAT convertible and went on vacation in Europe for 6 months. You told your son he could drive the car but should be careful. You get back and find the thing won't start. You question your son. He says, "It's a FIAT; they always break down." But you aren't satisfied. You look at the mileage on the car and see that 10,000 miles have been put on the car. You ask your son if he had regular maintenance done on the car and he says, "What maintenance?"
Do you blame your son for the car breaking down or not?
Your entitled
I'm basing my opinions on experience in the sports medicine field and also having access to a number of docs, some of whom have treated professional baseball players. When you add it all up and try and connect the dots, there is something that just doesn't jive with Prior in regards to how a typicall period of abuse should effect a pitcher. It could be that he is just a unique case, and he responds differently than most, but the other issues around him lead me to believe there is more to this than simple overuse during one season and blaming it on Dusty.
Anyway, it makes for engaging discussion, but I do not subscribe to the abuse theory as many others do.
Thanks
I don't know and I don't think we'll ever know for sure. For me, the main point is that Prior could reasonably blame the Cubs and not be a "bad apple" for doing so.
Thanks again for your thoughts.
He's still Mark Prior
Emotions aside Prior needs to be given a contract and not non-tendered, preferably a two year contract with incentives. A trade would be okay if the return were worth it, which would be tough given Prior's physical condition, so a contract is probably the only option.
why wouldn't we want Prior
In all likelihood he'll not pitch all year, or pitch inconsistently and well below his potential as he tries to make it back from 2 years of inactivity.
I haven't written off Mark Prior. But I have written off his 2008 season. And the Cubs should just move on if 2008 is all he's offering them.
by davearm on Nov 29, 2007 10:54 AM CST up reply actions
Couldn't have said it better
Yes, all 29 GM's will be coming to talk to him if the Cubs non-tender him. I bet all of them will have multi-year deals in hand too.
I'm not sure every team will.......
by PriorandAramisfan23 on Nov 29, 2007 11:15 AM CST up reply actions
I disagee
Personally,
by PriorandAramisfan23 on Nov 29, 2007 11:33 AM CST up reply actions
I won't disagree with that
My bottom-line point is if the Cubs can't get a 2 year deal from Prior, I see no point in wasting any time with him in 2008. Let someone else pay for the rehab.
True.....
by PriorandAramisfan23 on Nov 29, 2007 11:52 AM CST up reply actions

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