The D-Train and Cabs

by Snake Plissken on Nov 6, 2007 8:10 PM CST

I saw on SportsCenter that the Marlins are shopping both Willis and Cabrera.

The reason being thery're trying to get a stadium, or may have to move, so they're keeping their payroll down. The Marlins are frustrated with Cabrera's "laziness", and know they won't be able to keep him anyway in the long run.

Aside from the unnecessary and inevitable comment about the Cubs trading away prospects to get one of our former ones (Willis) back, thoughts?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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No to both

"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion

by DTJchris on Nov 6, 2007 7:57 PM CST reply actions

Willis will cost too much

I mean the Mets ARE DESPERATE , so are the Cardinals and
Yankees have to be looking just to name a few. I love him but
just to get in the conversation they would want Marmol, Fuld etc.
Not worth it. Remember he will be an FA after next season

"It's the Cubbies. There's always a vibe. It's the greatest vibe in baseball." Greg Maddux on Cub fan's optimism even after the 06 debacle.

by jessica on Nov 6, 2007 8:20 PM CST reply actions

lol...fuld?

I agree that we can't give up other names, but Fuld is hardly worth attempting to keep. I know you like him, but you must realize he isn't much of a prospect. I'd give him up for half a bag of Doritos. At any rate, unless he's a throw-in, no team will bother asking for him if they plan on trading even a marginal talent to the Cubs. There are over 35 names, between the big league roster and minor league system, who are more desirable at this point.

by Thelonious on Nov 7, 2007 6:47 AM CST up reply actions

The Report from the Arizona League...

... is that the hottest player down there is Fuld. Not sure where the source was, but OBP was in the high .400s, he is catching everything in center field, etc., etc.

My Dad was listening to one of the Chicago AM radio stations, and thought/hoped they were talking about Pie. Rather, it was Fuld.

by initram on Nov 7, 2007 10:45 AM CST up reply actions

no kidding

I've heard the reports. They don't sway my opinion at all. His entire minor league history tells the tale of a fifth outfielder at best. Aside from the problem of small sample-size, the AFL is one of the most extreme hitters' leagues in all of the pro baseball. Arizona is naturally hitter friendly, and teams tend to send some of their best hitting prospects, but only marginal rule V caliber pitchers.

by Thelonious on Nov 7, 2007 10:50 AM CST up reply actions

It may be the most extreme hitters league

But Fuld is still the top hitter in it ( technically 2nd but the
guy in front only has 21 ABs). Also same league BOTH this year's ROYs played in last year. I am not saying he is going to be the Cubs CF next year but the guy is very hot and scouts are definately VERY interested.

"It's the Cubbies. There's always a vibe. It's the greatest vibe in baseball." Greg Maddux on Cub fan's optimism even after the 06 debacle.

by jessica on Nov 7, 2007 12:31 PM CST up reply actions

I disagree

Most of the scouts I've read say that AFL stats can't be trusted. And the opinion on Fuld is not as rosy as you paint it. I've heard mixed opinions, most considering his upside around 5th outfielder (especially citing his age and lack of power). His minor league career is decidedly underwhelming, and these stats project his career much more accurately than a few ABs in extremely hitter friendly AFL ball. My point: if you're getting excited about Fuld, chances are very likely you're going to be disappointed.

I'd actually trade him right now, because his value may never be higher.

by Thelonious on Nov 7, 2007 12:40 PM CST up reply actions

Trade him?? LMAO

What exactly do you think the Cubs could get for Sam Fuld?

by lemon20pie on Nov 7, 2007 2:30 PM CST up reply actions

very, very little

But that's my point. He wasn't ever good, and he probably never will be good. His value is RELATIVELY higher now, due to the AFL stats. He was never going to net us much, but I subscribe to the theory that it's best to sell high, no matter what the relative value of that player may be.

by Thelonious on Nov 7, 2007 4:13 PM CST up reply actions

Don't you think...

... he might become a decent bench player? Those ARE useful, you know.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 7, 2007 7:19 PM CST up reply actions

This is his ceiling

But in terms of trade value, when does a bench player ever net anything? His upside is decently valuable, I guess, but players like Fuld are a dime a dozen. I don't think trading him is necessary, but I wouldn't think twice about trading him if a decent deal came along. I also wouldn't lose sleep over moving him.

by Thelonious on Nov 7, 2007 7:26 PM CST up reply actions

I feel for the suckers...

who grab those guys, especially Cabrera. You'll drain your whole farm to get him, then pay 20 million a year for the pleasure. And that's if you're lucky. If you're not, he's gone in a year, and you're left to pick up the pieces. Pick them up as free agents next off-season.

by Damen Jackson on Nov 6, 2007 8:35 PM CST reply actions

If they're even worth it.

Willis had a horrible 2007. He'll have to step it up to even be worth it as a free agent after 2008.

Cabrera's weight worries me. Though he's still a great hitter, will he be able to have any mobility at third base in future years?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Nov 7, 2007 4:00 AM CST up reply actions

I'd argue that he didn't have any THIS year.

n/t

FREE CARMEN PIGNATIELLO!

by cwyers on Nov 7, 2007 9:33 AM CST up reply actions

If we got him

He'd go to the outfield. And, no, that doesn't exactly assuage concerns about his mobility.

by Snake Plissken on Nov 7, 2007 10:56 AM CST up reply actions

Hanley anyone?

Los Cachorros!

by Laven on Nov 6, 2007 10:26 PM CST reply actions

Unfortunately...

...not a snowball's chance...

by initram on Nov 6, 2007 11:30 PM CST up reply actions

no no no to Willis but...

as long as they're kicking the tires on trading cabrera, he has played 100 games in right field and almost 250 in left. He's undoubtedly put on some pounds since then, but his 3b defense is so bad he might welcome a switch, and he's a rare talent, if they would take hill, gallagher and patterson for him, id do it.

Dontrelle though is most overrated pitcher of the past five years. He relies purely on deception and there is no way you can depend on the guy to give you consistent preformances, a huge no to the d-train.

Kevin Hart Watch: IP: 11 K: 13 ERA: 0.82 WHIP: 1.00 K/BB: 3.25 a productive farm system is a wonderful thing.

by kylejo on Nov 7, 2007 7:55 AM CST reply actions

No

That's paying to much.

by Snake Plissken on Nov 7, 2007 10:57 AM CST up reply actions

he wont be traded for any less

and he is an elite offensive player, who is only going to get better. Two years away from free agency, I would do that trade and hope to sign him long term.

We are talking a .339 .430 .568 line from a 24-year-old. This guy is a Manny Ramirez clone, he's worth every penny of a #2 starter at best hill, #3 gallagher and position-less E-Patt.

Kevin Hart Watch: IP: 11 K: 13 ERA: 0.82 WHIP: 1.00 K/BB: 3.25 a productive farm system is a wonderful thing.

by kylejo on Nov 7, 2007 11:50 AM CST up reply actions

It's really crazy

I've seen people on this site write off Cabrera completely due to his weight, bad defense, and alleged "headcase" status. But monster stats are monster stats, folks. Hide him in the outfield. Until I see his statistics suffer greatly from his weight, I can't automatically predict such an outcome. Prince and Cecil Fielder seem(ed) to do ok for themselves.

Cabrera is the kind of player who may perennially put up over 1.000 OPS for the entire peak of his career. Bad defense and attitude are acceptable, athough not ideal, baggage for players of that caliber. Sure, he does have several mitigating factors, but those factors don't come close to negating his elite offense.

Looking at it from Florida's perspective, they'd be losing one of the game's best pure hitters. Of course they're going to want some of the top prospects of any potential trading partner, and rightfully so. Cabrera is worth it, for the most part. I wouldn't trade the entire farm for the guy, but losing some impact prospects is a necessary inevitability in this case.

by Thelonious on Nov 7, 2007 12:20 PM CST up reply actions

HIDE him?

Have you SEEN him? He's bigger than the Under Armor ad! And it's not like pinstripes are good camoflauge in grass and ivy!

Ok, but in all seriousness. Let's assume we put together Pie, Gallagher, Veal and Pawalek, or whatever other ridiculous package it would take to get Cabrera. (God knows that just what this team needs is to be bent over and taken for young pitching talent by the Marlins' front office one MORE time.)

Let's say we try and hide him in the outfield. Since his arm is the only thing resembling a plus defensively on him, let's throw him in right field. Why not. Tom Tango did some preliminary work on runs saved by moving people to different positions. According to the '07 ZR data, he was at a -15 plays defensively, so moving him out to right makes him a -12. That's pretty well hidden!

But that's fine; he'll outhit that defensive deficiency, won't he? It's a pretty safe bet.

Oh, right, this is his walk season. Now in addition to shelling out whatever remains of our farm system, now we have to ink him to a major contract.

Now, here's a simple bit of baseball math that's not exactly tested using sabermetric principles, but I'll go ahead and stand by it:

Fat + lazy = going to get fatter

So as his range keeps dropping, look for hiding him in the outfield to start looking like hiding Daryle Ward out there. For a full season. Bonus!

Meanwhile, the club will be so bereft of pitching that we'll have to resort to converting Will Ohman into a starter. Meanwhile, Veal, Gallagher and Pawalek will be in a three-way race for the Cy Young award and Pie will have won his fifth straight Gold Glove.

Yeah, I'm exaggerating a bit there at the end. But: DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM. This is a bad idea. Do not try this.

FREE CARMEN PIGNATIELLO!

by cwyers on Nov 7, 2007 1:34 PM CST up reply actions

well, if you're gonna bring stats into it...

And yeah, I did neglect to remember that this is his walk year.

For what it's worth, his FRAR was 21 last year. I don't necessarily subscribe to any one defensive metric, nor do I think his defense won two games, as the FRAR suggests, but by that token, I don't think you can completely write him off by citing his ZR, and then a study that covers ZR for players moving positions (it may be a representative study, but it obviously doesn't include Cabrera, to wit he may be a statistical outlier). But I'm just nitpicking at your argument right here, as he will, in all likelihood, be a defensive liability no matter where he plays.

Still, even if he does lose an extra game with his defense (and I do believe that defensive metrics leave a lot to be desired), his bat is elite. There is no denying this simple fact. By "hide him defensively" I mean that his superlative offense effectively mitigates his defensive woes (this wasn't clear, above). Obviously, that defense leaves something to be desired, but I'd be willing to accept it for a guy putting up HOF numbers offensively before he's even hit his likely peak.

Your arguments regarding his walk year, and the undoubted decimation of our farm system do hurt my own point though, I must admit. Still, it's worth entering the discussion. I think I said above (or I meant to) that I wouldn't dump the entire system into the Marlins' hands for Cabrera, but failing to at least make inquiries is irresponsible.

As for the fat and lazy argument, I suppose this is pointless to discuss now, as we're all only guessing. I don't see a precipitous early decline due to weight and laxity as being an absolute inevitability, but others might. We can't do anything further than prognosticate at this point.

by Thelonious on Nov 7, 2007 4:30 PM CST up reply actions

Correction...

...he has two years left before free agency. I misread the entry on MLB4U; that changes the complexion of the arguement more than a little, but I still think the prospect bounty on him would be far too large.

As far as FRAR... I don't like that measure much. He's worth two wins above replacement defensively mostly because Clay Davenport thinks that replacement player means the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, which is what happens when you deliberately don't care about team quality. It's a replacement level that has almost no correlation with reality -- the Spiders had a .130 winning percentage, which I don't think has much relevance to any modern ball club.

All of Clay Davenport's stuff is to be taken with a grain of salt, for that reason among many others. Mario Mendoza, he who for the Mendoza line, has a career four and a half WARP3! Look, Mario Mendoza is widely famous for being about as awful as a player can be and still be in the major leagues, and modern baseball analysis has found almost no redeeming value to him. In '79 he had the second-worst offensive season of all time with at least 300 outs made according to OPS+, and WARP3 thinks he contributed over a win and a half to that team. By being a marginally above-average fielder!

The Davenport Translations are useful for historical baseball analysis and for comparing players between eras, because they correlate relatively well with the more advanced metrics and they use data that we actually have for historical players. But for comparing modern players to modern players, there are better metrics that use a lot more data and are a lot smarter. I tend to shy away from them.

FREE CARMEN PIGNATIELLO!

by cwyers on Nov 8, 2007 1:40 AM CST up reply actions

Hmm... can anyone say "Kevin Mitchell"?

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Nov 7, 2007 7:56 PM CST up reply actions

I wonder if

Willis is on the downward spiral, or he had just a rough year.

"I'm not much of a chemistry guy. Chemistry to me is a pinch-hit double with the bases loaded." -Jim Frey

by lapetino on Nov 7, 2007 8:10 AM CST reply actions

my guess

A little bit of both. I think he's still an above average pitcher, when he's at his best (note that "average usually means ERA in the mid 4s), but we aren't going to see any more sub 3 ERA, 22 win seasons from Dontrelle ever again, most likely.

Another sub 4.00 ERA season is pretty likely, however. In fact, I would be surprised if he doesn't have another solid season or two at least some point in his career. He underplayed his PECOTA significantly last season, IIRC.

by Thelonious on Nov 7, 2007 8:20 AM CST up reply actions