Cubs reportedly close to offering Matsui 3 years
Per Roto world:
According to the Denver Post, the Cubs are expected to offer Kazuo Matsui a three-year contract.
The newspaper reports that the Rockies will likely let him leave if that's the case, which would be the right move. For all the talk of Matsui's dramatic improvement since leaving the Mets, he batted just .249 with a measly 638 OPS away from Coors Field in 2007.
My question is why? And where does he play. I could be wrong but I was assuming that DeRosa was going to start at 2nd base this year. Your thoughts?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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109 comments
Comments
Sorry
by Kchance on Nov 9, 2007 8:38 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
My guess would be
BUT, like we are all concentrating on, his OBP his bad. We will see, I would assume this would make Theriot the supersub.
ALthough, I highly doubt this, what point does it really make unless they are trying to bring in other Japanese players and they want them comfortable. Comfortable I ask??? You are making tons of money ship your family out as well.
by Hammer on Nov 9, 2007 8:45 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking
by Kchance on Nov 9, 2007 8:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
why do we need Matsui to talk to Fukudome ..
If that was the case, why don't we sign Hideo Nomo to get him? Nomo is available and he was quite the splash a few years ago .. so why not get him? Last I heard, Nomo's pitching in Venezuela this winter with no Scott Boras or Jerry McGuire ready to talk turkey to a club for him.
I don't think we need Matsui .. as has been eloquently argued already, what do we really gain that Theriot hasn't brought already?
by cubnational on Nov 9, 2007 10:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong
Considering all the above if a Japanese player gets offers from Club A and Club B where Club A has a history of signing Japanese players and has some Japanese players on their current roster while Club B doesn't have none then I bet he will sign with Club A even for a few million less.
by cubsnlinux on Nov 9, 2007 10:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
From the Denver Post -
http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_7410630
--------------------------------------------------
Which completely makes sense and this is what I was talking about.
by cubsnlinux on Nov 9, 2007 10:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
what do we gain?
by kylejo on Nov 9, 2007 2:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cart, horse, what what the correct order again?
I don't have any particular problem with Matsui, but I find him pretty unenthralling. He wilted in the pressure of NY, and could do the same in Chicago. He was not a very good SS (bad at turning the DP if I recall in particular), and would presumably be entrenched there.
I am not a huge Therio/Cedeno fan, but frankly they are decent enough placekeepers for the Cubs to pick up someone who will actually be a significant improvement. Why just settle for a mediocre guy with a low OBP and no power and a so-so glove?
Gotta say, I don't get this one.
All that said, this is the time of year of rampant internet rumors, so we will see. Isn't it still to early for any team to officially talk contract terms with another team's FA, so, if this story is really true, couldn't the Cubs be penalized for tampering?
by WGNstatic on Nov 9, 2007 9:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Maybe 2B
Matsui at leadoff? Hmmmm, if his OBP is decent, I'm OK with it.
And if it is a notable factor him signing to get Kuroda or Fukudome, then I'm OK with that also.
Fukudome could be the key improvement to the offence next season.
by blackhawk24 on Nov 9, 2007 2:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
DeRo at SS
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 9, 2007 6:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Does he leadoff?
Also - even though he's a switch hitter, it doesn't look like he handles lefties too well, so a platoon with Theriot might work.
And also - whatever happened to the power he displayed in Japan? Before moving to the Mets, he hit 30+ HR two years in a row. Now he can't even hit double digits playing in Coors for a year. Was a reasonable explanantion for the power drop ever found?
by MadHatterBlues on Nov 9, 2007 9:22 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Playing at Coors
by DTJchris on Nov 9, 2007 9:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's still a home run park...
Great American Ballpark, the Cell and Citizen's Bank Ballpark all were more extreme HR environments in 2007.
[That's right, White Sox fans -- you played in what may well have been the most homer-friendly park in the bigs last year, and placed dead last in the AL in homers. And your managers solution? Have Thome and Konerko take bunting practice! God, I hope you enjoy suck.]
by cwyers on Nov 9, 2007 10:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
man cwy, that was FUNNY ..
by cubnational on Nov 9, 2007 10:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The fences
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 9, 2007 1:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Piniella...
Matsui would play shortstop everyday. Theriot and Fontenot would likely play the role of utility / bench guys. The way that Piniella plays his guys, especially during the dog days of summer and during those long consecutive game stretches, the important role of the utility player because that much more crucial. In this respect, I think we will be in excellent shape if we have guys like Theriot, Fontenot, Pagan and possibly Murton to be those guys.
DeRosa likely will play second base everyday. If you have consistency there, you may see more offense from him next year.
Personally, I think Kuroda is the first guy you go after. He almost signed with the Cubs last year before citing personal reasons for staying back. This time around it would be nice to see him, and all reports (until recently) were pointing to Kuroda joining the Cubs. The recent reports show that he prefers a warmer climate. We'll see.
I always saw Kuroda as being the player to sway Fukudome as well. The Cubs will have the pitch Japanese tandem marketing tool. Adding Matsui would be great as well.
Remember, the Rockies have exclusivity with Matsui until Tuesday, right? That said, there would be no other offers given to Matsui - likely all speculation.
Personally, and I may still be dreaming here. I would go take care of getting Kuroda, Fukudome, and Silva/Willis/Santana/etc. I would also look to push Jones, Marquis, and Dempster. This will take time... 4-6 weeks? After this, then check to see where A-Rod is at and see if offers have some down from the stratosphere into reality, and then snipe him (for you eBay'ers out there!).
by initram on Nov 9, 2007 9:28 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
DeRosa in right?
by ak123 on Nov 9, 2007 10:04 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Lord I hope not...
by SouthernCub on Nov 9, 2007 10:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Could Theriot
by Galvan316 on Nov 9, 2007 10:08 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Sure.
by cwyers on Nov 9, 2007 10:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
To be (slightly) less flip about things...
What you can do is trade players for guys like Fontenot. Mike Fontenot (along with Real Winners Dave Crouthers and Jerry Hairston Junior) was the cost of getting Sammy out of our hair; he is the personification of a used baseball.
by cwyers on Nov 9, 2007 10:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't tell Scott Boras
by HectorVillanueva on Nov 9, 2007 9:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The guy who will be traded is DeRo
It also means three speedy, but low OBP guys (Pie, Theriot, and Kaz) in the lineup and fewer wins.
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 9, 2007 1:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
misleading
first, his sub .700 ops was due to the horrible september he had, when lou was using him in the leadoff spot for soriano, he had an ops in the .700's.
second, who said you had to have a high ops to bat at the top of the lineup?
third, have you actually seen matsui play short? just because in his first major league action he didnt do great, doesnt mean he's not capable of playing the position he played for his japanese career. the point is you have no idea how good he would be at shortstop.
lastly, dont label pie as a "low OBP guy" he may not rack up stunning on-base numbers in the majors, but he should put up a respectable obp, given these stats:
- .385
- .346
- .364
- .369
- .341
- .410
by kylejo on Nov 9, 2007 3:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the link...
http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_7410630
I think I'm going to hold off for something collaborative before commenting further on this one. Beat writers don't always make the most reliable sources.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 9, 2007 10:11 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Right.
Sounds a little less definitive when put that way, doesn't it?
by Al on Nov 9, 2007 10:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
beat writers
I know there's tension between bloggers and old-school media, but give me a break.
by elgato on Nov 9, 2007 11:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My exposure to media...
by Damen Jackson on Nov 9, 2007 11:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I am in the business
I disagree with your point about how little beat reporters know. But that's not really my issue with your statement. I'm admittedly very biased, so I really won't try to argue that point.
My point is this. If you want to criticize a beat writer -- say, Paul Sullivan -- after reading him/her for years and determining that he/she has made lots of mistakes and always gets beat, that's fine.
But, based on your statement, it doesn't sound like you know anything about Troy Renck (the Post reporter). You were just making a generalization about beat writers.
And if you don't trust beat writers generally, whom do you trust? Al's an important exception, but there are a LOT of blogs out there that pull things completely out of nowhere -- much more so than the average beat writer ever would.
And a good portion of bloggers simply repeat what beat reporters or ESPN report. Again, I'm not attacking Al or anyone on this site.
by elgato on Nov 9, 2007 11:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not going to get into a debate...
by Damen Jackson on Nov 9, 2007 11:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OK
by elgato on Nov 9, 2007 11:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No..
by Damen Jackson on Nov 9, 2007 11:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
well
"Beat writers don't always MAKE the most reliable sources."
Emphasis mine. Did you mean that beat writers don't always USE the most reliable sources?
Anyway, I just don't think you should write off Renck -- or any reporter -- because you generally don't trust beat writers. Should Renck suffer because you don't trust Paul Sullivan or Bruce Miles?
And what happens if he doesn't offer the information from "a reliable source (even an anyonymous one)," but Matsui ends up a Cub?
by elgato on Nov 9, 2007 12:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that if you really want...
- Called anyone lazy, and certainly not Troy.
- Dismissed his writing altogether, instead offering to wait for collaboration from another source.
- Personally insulted him.
- Called anyone lazy, and certainly not Troy.
- Dismissed his writing altogether, instead offering to wait for collaboration from another source.
- Personally insulted him.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 9, 2007 12:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Damned Word...
by Damen Jackson on Nov 9, 2007 12:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't like
I'll retract the lazy comment -- I was out of line there. And I actually didn't think you personally insulted him or dismissed his writing altogether.
I didn't mean to start a debate about the profession or for this to get ugly, by the way.
by elgato on Nov 9, 2007 12:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't see where blogs came into the debate...
If that's the stance, I agree with it. It's not even a beat writer for the Cubs. I really have trouble getting too excited about a report provided by a beat writer of another team when we haven't heard similar things from our team's beat writers.
That said, I'd agree that bloggers are generally no more likely to have legit scoops. Basically, until we hear that he's been signed, it all should be taken with a grain of salt. It's interesting speculation, but whether it's a beat writer (home or away)
by SouthernCub on Nov 9, 2007 11:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
my point is
And I'm not saying anyone should believe everything they read. But to categorically dismiss a reporter -- just because's he a beat reporter! -- without knowing anything about his work is stupid.
by elgato on Nov 9, 2007 11:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
There's a difference...
He/she didn't say the writer was wrong, just said that beat writers often are way off and thus he/she is waiting for more evidence.
It's just playing the odds.
by SouthernCub on Nov 9, 2007 12:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
But
by elgato on Nov 9, 2007 12:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Big difference...
So no, the two stances aren't the same arguments.
by SouthernCub on Nov 9, 2007 1:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Harm versus no harm being the key difference...
"Playing the odds" with regard to personally believing or not believing unsourced information/speculation does not harm anyone.
I just wanted to make clear the distinction, because the two are VERY different situations.
by SouthernCub on Nov 9, 2007 1:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Kaz at short
The move only make sense if Matsui plays at shortstop. Matsui played short his whole career until the last three years, so you would think going back to short would be ok.
I wouldn't give this guy a three year deal, but I do believe he's a upgrade over Theriot/ Cedeno and Fontenot at short.
Plain and simple having Matsui on the Cubs makes them better next year, even if they do sign him to a bad contract of 3y-9-12m
by cubsfan25 on Nov 9, 2007 10:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
DeRosa isn't starting in right
If Matsui is starting it only makes sense at shortstop
by cubsfan25 on Nov 9, 2007 10:17 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Matsui
by cubfaninSTL on Nov 9, 2007 10:24 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
If they sign him
by Kchance on Nov 9, 2007 10:29 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I hope they know what they are getting
by MPH73 on Nov 9, 2007 11:11 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I like this idea
My question is: What would the Cubs giving up? The Rockies appear pretty set with position players, but Fogg and Hawkins are free agents. I would be surprised if Marshall or Wuertz ends up at Coors.
Both guys have upside, but never seem to be big parts of the Cubs' plans (I think Piniella has issues with Marshall in particular, maybe about his toughness).
I'm still perplexed by this lineup. If the Cubs get Fukudome and Matsui, who hits second? Who hits fifth?
by elgato on Nov 9, 2007 11:11 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Matsui is a free agent.
by cwyers on Nov 9, 2007 11:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This reminds me...
The #1 reason to sign KazMat has to be to let potential Japanese FAs know that you'll have another Japanese player on your team.
KazMat and Fontenot had the same OPS+ of 87 (which is not good, in case you were wondering) at 2B last year. So, paying KazMat to play 2B makes no sense. He is no better than Fontenot and you have a better option in DeRosa and likely in Eric Patterson.
He does have a platoon split that makes him closer to league average if you play him only against RHP and Theriot has a mirror split that makes him closer to league average if you play him against LHP only. A Matsui/Theriot platoon at SS is a minor improvement for the Cubs' lineup, but I'm not convinced it is any better than a Cedeno/Theriot platoon. And, again, Cedeno doesn't cost 4 mill a year for 3 years.
by DGU on Nov 9, 2007 11:31 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
This whole Kaz Matsui thing
by cubsnlinux on Nov 9, 2007 11:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That's what I'm hoping.
by DGU on Nov 9, 2007 11:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa.
Seriously? Kaz Matsui isn't any better than Mike Fontenot?
Mike Fontenot is a guy who went out, had a lucky month, and was benched before he could tank his stats any further.
Matsui, while not precisely covering himself in glory at the plate, played (mostly) a full season, and is probably worth about 15 runs defensively compared to Fontenot at second.
by cwyers on Nov 9, 2007 11:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
and ...
by elgato on Nov 9, 2007 11:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This being something that Mike Fontenot...
by cwyers on Nov 9, 2007 11:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
by elgato on Nov 9, 2007 12:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
whoa whoa whoa whoa x2
Away from Coors KazMat hit .249/.304/.333 last year, which looks suspiciously like his 2005 with the Mets: .255/.300/.352, which isn't really that much worse than his 2004 or park-adjusted 2007.
It's a worthwhile point that Matsui has better defense at 2B, but when you add the OBP black-hole of his offense to the defense, he is not a better option than DeRosa at 2B.
He would be an improvement in a platoon at SS, but not the best improvement the Cubs could make, imo.
by DGU on Nov 9, 2007 12:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Away from Wrigley...
by cwyers on Nov 9, 2007 12:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A 1-year park effect...
by DGU on Nov 9, 2007 12:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The wind arguement only matters...
More to the point - I didn't bring one year park factors into this; you did with your reliance on OPS+. About the only real benefit out of OPS+ is its park and league factors (and its more intuitive scaling than OPS), and you lose probably the only benefit of OPS - the ability to easily calculate it from commonly-availble statistics. If you're going to go to the bother of having a computer utilizing a giant database of baseball information calculate a player rating metric, then you really need to use something like Estimated Runs Produced, BaseRuns or a variant on Linear Weights. But that's something plenty of people have talked to B-Ref about without avail.
by cwyers on Nov 10, 2007 9:11 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Colorado vs Cubs
Cubs-Home .278/.344/.439 sOPS+102 tOPS+/107
Away .265.322/.404 sOPS+95 tOPS+/92
Colo-Home .298.374/.480 sOPS+120 tOPS+/115
Away .261.336/.395 sOPS+/97 tOPS+/85
It appears from the numbers that the divergence is considerably higher at Coors than Wrigley.
by tharr on Nov 9, 2007 4:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
wind
by kylejo on Nov 9, 2007 5:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
They must really want
by CubFaninCA on Nov 9, 2007 12:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I agree with this.
They're almost never right, but they keep thinking it. Some team with people like that who have scouted Cedeno will trade for him.
by Al on Nov 9, 2007 12:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
a change of scenery
by elgato on Nov 9, 2007 12:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
... work another deal with the Orioles
Cedeno, Marshall, Pie for Bedard?
by The Real Dustin on Nov 9, 2007 1:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If they can keep
On the Matsui thing, who said DeRo can't play short, he came up playing SS, didn't he?
by blackhawk24 on Nov 9, 2007 2:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't
by HectorVillanueva on Nov 9, 2007 9:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If I could find the comments you said about Rich H
by cubsfan2883 on Nov 9, 2007 3:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Matsui by the numbers
For his career his OPS is 82% of league average. He has very little power, one HR per 81 AB.
He's 32 and a career OBP of .325. Does Hendry expect his numbers to improve over the next 3 years?
So I have to ask if I see his worth is as a SS getting $12M over 3 years? I don't. It seems his addition would be redundant. And if his worth is as a fuzzy warm feeling for Fukudome, my suggestion would be to offer Fuk an extra $3M per year and skip the middle man.
by tharr on Nov 9, 2007 1:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
No to Kaz
Hideki(sp?) Matsui.
Would the Yanks be willing to trade their Matsui? I would prefer him over Fukudome.
by amaru on Nov 9, 2007 3:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
They are shopping him, yes
by Wreckard on Nov 9, 2007 4:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He played some CF
by NO100 on Nov 9, 2007 6:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Some Second Thoughts
And if it's not, Matsui may still prefer to be in Colorado and may just be using the Cubs interest to try and leverage the Rockies' offer. In fact, they may not even be accurately reflecting the Cubs' interest.
Is this just wishful thinking on my part?
by DGU on Nov 9, 2007 3:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think getting Matsui would be a good thing
The guy who is suppose to fill the role Matsui would fill is Ronny Cedeno. Signing Matsui makes Cedeno expendable. Some teams are interested in Cedeno and while he won't be the main ingreident of any trade, he's not a bad cherry on top for a middle market team looking to take a chance on a cheap young guy.
Also, there is something to be said about just saying we are going after Matsui to interest Fukudome and Kudora. The Cubs have signed one Japanese ball player in their entire history and that was Mac Suzuki who was signed to a minor league deal and I believe never pitched a single inning with the MLB ballclub.
Signing Matsui adds speed, a more reliable backup 2B/SS, and gets us a better chance at getting Fukudome and Kudora? Hell, I'd overpay him for sure.
by IllinoisCubs on Nov 9, 2007 4:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Admirably put
He could be a good thing -
- if he is not an everyday player;
- if he can play SS;
- if the Cubs can't get a more useful Japanese player to lure the Japanese players they want (e.g., do the Rays still need Akinori Iwamura, who could potentially be a supersub?);
- if the better lefty SS options aren't available;
- if Cedeno brings back something nice;
If he and Theriot make the starting middle infield, then the Cubs will have taken a step back this offseason.
by DGU on Nov 9, 2007 4:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No No
by IllinoisCubs on Nov 10, 2007 1:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
all good points
by kylejo on Nov 9, 2007 5:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
why has Matsui
by DC Cubbie on Nov 9, 2007 5:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Matsui
Matsui played in 114 games in 2004, and put up simliar offensive numbers as he did this season. By hitting 272 with a 331 OBP.
The two years he struggled by hitting just 255 and 267(301-310 OBP) were years when he played in just 70 and 87 games. Matsui was a career 309 hitter with a 361 career OBP in Japan.
I think if Matsui plays a fullseason, he could be a simliar hitter to Juan Pierre(270-280,330-340, 50-60 SB). IF we can get that production at shortstop and for only 3m or so I don't think it's a bad move.
But hopefully Matsui is just as good as Theriot at shortstop.
by cubsfan25 on Nov 9, 2007 5:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Translating
by DGU on Nov 9, 2007 7:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Matsui = fast guy who doesn't hit.
Rey Sanchez
Mickey Morandini
Jeff Blauser
Eric Young
Augie Ojeda
Bobby Hill
Tony Womack
Mark Bellhorn
Damian Jackson
Rey Ordonez
Nefi Perez
Jerry Hairston Jr.
Corey Patterson
Please don't add Kaz to this list.
by santoswoodenlegs on Nov 9, 2007 6:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Not all those guys were bad or as fast as Matsui
"Rey Sanchez
Mickey Morandini
Jeff Blauser
Eric Young
Augie Ojeda
Bobby Hill
Tony Womack
Mark Bellhorn
Damian Jackson
Rey Ordonez
Nefi Perez
Jerry Hairston Jr.
Corey Patterson"
Morandini was good for a year, Young was ok, Womack was over the hill when we got him, and the other guys(besides Patterson), really didn't steal bases.
by cubsfan25 on Nov 9, 2007 6:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
ughhh, why are we doing this?
by CubsBall2202 on Nov 9, 2007 8:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Short advice on K. Matsui, Hendry:
by Fraggin Judge on Nov 9, 2007 9:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Nobody knows what Matsui will bring
Is it a fact that players drop off that much???
Hideki Matsui was a 295 hitter and 371 OBP guy in the big leagues. In Japan Matsui was a 295, 413 OBP hitter.
Ichiro Suzuki was a 353 career hitter in Japan with a 421 career OBP. In the majors he was a 333 career hitter, with a 379 career OBP.
Tadihito Iguchi was a 276 hitter in the US with a 347 OBP. In Japan Iguchi was a 271 hitter with a 342 career OBP. So Iguchi was actually been a better career hitter in Japan.
How can you say a guy is this or that hitter, when he played a total of 375 games in four years(possible 648 games). Chances are that he was probably playing hurt in those games. I personally think the Coors Field factor is very overrated these days. Yes I believe Coors Field did help his numbers a little bit, but I think in another good hitters park he's still a 270s -330s OBP hitter.
Ryan Theriot hit 290s at home, but 230s on the Road. Some hitters just hit much better at home, so should we just say Theriot will be worse if he went to another park?
Isn't odd that Matsui had his two best seasons(272-331 OBP- 288-342 OBP), when he played in 100 plus games? Then had his two horrible season when he played in only 70-87 games, I think injuries had a big factor in his struggles those seasons.
by cubsfan25 on Nov 10, 2007 12:31 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Of course anything can happen, but...
Kazuo Matsui could have a career year at any time and play at a level he never played at before or will play at again (alternatively, he could have just had that career year). When considering whether or not Kaz Matsui could help or hurt the Cubs, the question is not - "Could he be great if..., if..., if..., if..., and if..." The question should be - "Does he give us the best odds of winning compared to the other options?" And that's what I'm not convinced of.
As for the Japan to America translations, you asked "Is it a fact that players drop off that much???" I looked at the three years before coming to the States of each Japanese hitter I could think of and then their first year in America. I posted the results in the diary "File under Fukudome."
Comparing their past three years (instead of their career numbers) gives you different results. For example, Tadahito Iguchi's last three years were
Age 27 .259/.317/.423
28 .340/.438/.573
29 .333/.393/.549
ML: Age 30 .278/.342/.438
Rounding a lot, he lost .035/.100 OBP/SLG. In other words, Iguchi didn't become a better hitter in America - he became a much better hitter two years before he came to America and his improved play continued, although translated according to the relative difficulty of the leagues.
Similarly with Hideki Matsui, comparing his last three years, rather than his career, shows us just how much he lost coming to the States.
Age 26 .316/.438/.654
27 .333/.463/.617
28 .334/.463/.692
ML: Age 29 .287/.353/.435
Lost about .100/.200 OBP/SLG.
Now Big Matsui ended up adjusting and improving in his second season. Maybe you can make the case that Little Matsui can/has, but I don't see it.
Now, even if we go with career #s, Hideki Matsui and Ichiro both lost over .040 pts of OBP, so there's no need to haggle over .010 pts here.
You asked, "How can you say a guy is this or that hitter, when he played a total of 375 games in four years?"
Well, of course, I can't predict without fail what Kaz Matsui will do. I do think, though, that there are plenty of predictive tools available for the baseball fan that can tell us what Kaz Matsui is likely to do. He is likely, at the age of 32, not to put up seasons better than he did. He is likely, if he doesn't play at Coors for half his games next year, to hit a lot more like he has away from Coors, both in his career, and last year.
As a Cubs fan, if the Cubs sign him, I'll be rooting for him to be great, I just won't be expecting it.
Finally, do you know he was injured those years? I thought he just got benched.
by DGU on Nov 10, 2007 10:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Matsui has a history of back problems...
by cwyers on Nov 10, 2007 10:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
by DGU on Nov 10, 2007 11:45 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Matsui Away/Home stats not a big deal
Many players have big difference with Home/Road stats. Matsui only hit 249 on the road this year, but does mean he will hit 250 next year? If you think that I guess you would feel the same way about Ramirez, Lee and Soriano if they played for another team.
Derrek Lee
371 avg Home
265 avg Road
Ramirez
337/403 OBP Home
283/326- OBP Away
Soriano
325/367- OBP Road
274/308- OBP Home
Here's a article about Matsui from November 2003, sounds like simliar hype to Fukudome now.
This guy is a very talented player, and if he could be healthy for a fullseason. I think he could put up some pretty good numbers at short. Matsui has also won awards for his defense at shortstop, so his struggles with the Mets at short in 2004, seems more like more of a fluke.
by cubsfan25 on Nov 10, 2007 2:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
cubs
by NOMAR on Nov 10, 2007 5:27 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
kaz matsui
by Chanman25 on Nov 10, 2007 8:02 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Oh, really?
Izturis: .259/.295/.334
Matsui: .272/.325/.387
Granted, Matsui's 32 years old, so I wouldn't give him any sort of longterm contract. But he's clearly a far superior player to Cesar Izturis.
by Al on Nov 10, 2007 11:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Matsui Article from SI during the p layoffs
Maybe after you guys read this, you might think Matsui playing better with the Rockies over the last year and half isn't just the "Coors Field factor"
"I haven't followed Matsui close enough to know his injury history. That said, in reference to Cubsfan25 - a history of back problems is just one more "if" to add to the list of things that will have to go right for Matsui to be the player we hope he could be."
I think thats the only thing stopping him from being a top notch shortstop in the major leagues. He went from never missing a game pretty much in Japan, to never coming close to playing a full season in the majors. If the Cubs do sign him, and he's finally healthy this could be a very good move. At worse it still helps your team, off the bench. Not matter what some think he's not going to hit 249 with the Cubs, he will be in the 260s-270s at worst. His home/away stats are very overrated, alot of players have those type of stats these days.(actually four Cubs do)
"Finally, do you know he was injured those years? I thought he just got benched."
Mostly due to injuries is why he missed time. This year he missed mid April to Mid May, and again a few weeks in September. Not to mention minor nagging Cliff Floyd type injuries.
The only time he didn't play when he was healthy was in 2006 when he was pretty much a pinch runner, and pinch hitter before they traded him. But it's not uncommon for players to strugggle in New York after HUGE HYPE.
by cubsfan25 on Nov 10, 2007 12:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Ok, I read it.
I still don't see much difference between Matsui's 2004 with the Mets and his 2007 with the Rox.
Age 28 .272/.331/.396
Age 31 .288/.342/.405
You have to believe that Coors adds at least .010/.010/.010 to your triple-slash stats. So, if KazMat's Age 28 season was a "bust" in the words of the article, why was his Age 31 season "heroic"?
Here's the question for me - what does Matsui at 4 mill per year offer the Cubs that Ronny Cedeno can't offer at 400,000? Cedeno hit .359/.422/.537 in AAA last year, and maybe you're convinced he's just a Quad-A player, but maybe a nice sympathy-piece on Ronny and his family, if it would ever get written, would make us feel different about him? Or maybe just the fact that he's coming into his Age 25 season whereas Matsui is coming into his Age 32 season could do it.
by DGU on Nov 10, 2007 2:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cedeno/ Matsui
I know Cedeno has talent, and is still young. But the guy has been a AWFUL major league player. He hit 245 with a 271 OBP in 06, and last season he hit just 203 with a 231 OBP. Even in 2006 his numbers were only that good because of a good April and May, the rest of the year he was horrible. So since MLB pitchers found out how to get Cedeno out he hasn't been able to hit major league pitching.
Yes it was nice that he hit 359 in Triple A this year in 75 games, but it's not like it was the first time he did that. In 2005 he hit 355 in 65 games in Triple A. So he hit very well in Triple A before and wasn't able to hit major league pitching. He could very easily just be a 4-A player. Cedeno is out of options though, so the Cubs can't send him back to Triple A, and he hasn't been productive enough to stay on the major league team, so thats a problem. I wouldn't mind keeping Cedeno, but he's far from a sure thing to figure it out in the majors ever. The Cubs can't get 266-326 and 203-231 from the shortstop postion again, they need to get better, and Matsui would make them at least a little better.
When Matsui came to the Mets he was suppose to put up Chase Utley type numbers. He had a awful lot of pressure on him in New York, and had trouble adjusting. If you watched the way Matsui played in the playoffs, you would realize he's a pretty good player, and one that will help a team win, but isn't a star player.
by cubsfan25 on Nov 10, 2007 2:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Is Ichiro still a free agent?
by cubstoseriesby100 on Nov 10, 2007 5:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Have you heard of Google?
Do you have any way of finding information about baseball other than by asking questions? I'm quite frankly suprised that you didn't start a whole new diary to ask this. This question addresses nothing obscure, controversial or difficult to understand.
I cannot understand how you simultaniously require every bit of information about this team, or ANY team, in baseball to be spoonfed to you, and yet can manage to be so condescending to anyone who dares posit a contrary opinion about a player or a point about baseball.
by cwyers on Nov 10, 2007 5:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
To quote our fearless leader:
by sackings108 on Nov 10, 2007 5:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll second that loud, sustained applause.
by Al on Nov 11, 2007 4:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
WTF KOW?????????
by Kinky Reggae on Nov 12, 2007 3:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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