Pitching or Offense
The debate has raged on in the Blanton diary to the point that I believe it deserves its' own thread. And, sense I started the blanton diary I'll get this one going too.
The broad question is whether the Cubs need more and better starting pitching or another quality offensive player.
Specifically, whether the Cubs should try to trade for Bedard or Joe Blanton on the pitching side, or Roberts on the offensive side.
In the expanded article I have included numbers and a poll.
Erik Bedard in '07:
28 Gs 182 IPs 3.16 ERA 1.09 WHIP 221 Ks 57 BBs
Joe Blanton in '07:
34 Gs 230 IPs 3.95 ERA 1.22 WHIP 140 Ks 40 BBs
Brian Roberts in '07
156 Gs .290 AVG .377 OBP .432 SLG 12 HRs 57 RBIs 103 Rs 50 SBs
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My Take?
Billy Beane has all but announced he's rebuilding, and A's.com suggests Blanton is on the table, as has mlbtraderumors.com (Yeah, I know). Links below:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/starting-pitchi.html
Blanton will be cheaper than Bedard, and, while not a true #2 at keast not right now, he will provide stability to our rotation. Z was inconsistent last season, Lilly had a career year, but who knows if he'll repeat it, Hill is young and inconsistent, marquis was good before the All Star break and bad after, and the #5 hole was a revolving door. Blanton also splits up our lefties:
Z
Lilly
Blanton
Hill
Marquis/Dempster/Hart/Petrick/Marshall
by Snake Plissken on Dec 15, 2007 11:23 PM CST reply actions
I would agree
I don't know what some Cubs fans have been smoking saying there is no disparity between him and Hill, but there is. He is so much better it boggles my mind to see some of those comments.
That being said, I'd like to acquire both he and Roberts, but if I had to choose it'd be Bedard. We don't need 3/5 of a rotation. I'd be much happier with Bedard and Marquis in the 5, or most likely 4 spot to break up the lefties.
Zambrano
Bedard
Lilly
Marquis
Hill
and then:
Roberts-ss
Fukudome-rf
Lee-1b
Soriano-lf
Ramirez-3b
DeRosa-2b
Soto-c
Pie-cf
Wrap up the division and most likely the NL with a rotation and lineup like that.
Bedard & Hill
Luis
notice.......
BTW-I notice a certain stat is missing from Roberts line up there, might wanna try adding his 50 stolen bases, that makes a difference.
K/9
7.93, 7.94, 7.84 & 10.93.
That just doesn't seem sustainable. For a guy that had an extremely consistent ratio for 3 years to all of the sudden increase by 3 points doesn't seem like a natural progression or something you can count on. In fact, based on that info alone, I think there's a good chance that his performance in 2007 may have been a high point and it's going to come back more down to earth in the following years. That is just a personal opinion though, I don't have any comparables at the moment to make an informed judgment. Anyone else see this K/9 ratio of 2007 as something he can sustain or come close to again?
Luis
I could care less
He is a stud, thats about it.
Do you think that
Because if not, then you are saying Bedard is a stud based on a 1 year performance where his K/9 jumped unexpectedly to a ridiculous 11 per 9. If it comes back down into the high 7 range, do you believe he will put up the same numbers as he did last year in terms of ERA? I think it's possible, but not probable.
Giving up Hill + others doesn't make the Cubs a significantly better ballclub, not even in the immediate future.
Luis
PS: went to the game today to see Pie... he went 0-3 with a flyball to right, a flyball to left and a comebacker to the pitcher. At least no strikeouts today... although he seems to be always behind in the count.
Additional Commentary
Can you discuss more on the topic of Pie? I am not too concerned with his output, but rather his swing.
Is his swing more controlled and compact? Did he get some good hacks at hitter's pitches and lay off the pitcher's pitches? Was the ball explosive off his bat, albeit fair/foul/outs/etc.?
This is our bonus prize...
Some comments
Luis
Offense first
Luis
Pitching
What you're failing to look at here...
Actually, that's one of many ways in which you're failing to contextualize this entire arguement.
Let's put it to you this way. You win baseball games by scoring more runs than you allow. The Cubs can improve their run prevention -- either by improving the pitching OR by improving the defense. (Defense, by the way, being the thing that you entirely ignored here.) Or they can improve their run scoring.
An extra marginal win is an extra marginal win, and at the end of the day it doesn't matter where they come from. The Cubs need to look at the resources they have left (salary room and trading chips) and committ them to the most wins they can get, relative to what they already have on hand. Everything else is irrelevant.
Ok...
by WUSTLCubsFan on Dec 16, 2007 1:48 AM CST up reply actions
Oh well.
Yeesh.
Defense
by Snake Plissken on Dec 16, 2007 12:04 PM CST up reply actions
Pitching wins........
The offense is fine right now, the pitching isn't. I don't know if I can entrust a great deal of our future in Rich Hill yet.
I go by the rules that I'd rather have a proven player now than take a gamble on someone down the road. What would be better than winning it all this year? What gives you the best chance at that? Adding Bedard and Roberts is the best plan of action right now, no matter how much it costs.
We've been complaining about how little this team spends, then finally the reins are taken off and we get stingy? Spend as much as it takes to win, the Yankees and Red Sox have no problems with that.
I for one would rather win now than worry about developing players in a few years and maybe we cn win then.
Seriously.
Oh
The HR....
Ted Lilly, who led the Cubs by allowing 28 HR, was one of the top lefties in the league.
Nine pitchers in the NL allowed more HR than Lilly, including Cy Young candidate Aaron Harang. Except for Harang and Bronson Arroyo, all of those nine allowed more HR than Lilly in fewer innings pitched than Lilly had.
I agree, I'm concerned about the number of walks Z gives up. Nevertheless, he still produces. Would I like to get another 1/2 starter to add to the mix? You bet. I'm not sure the Cubs have the pieces to offer for, say, Erik Bedard, though.
they have the pieces
Either way, there are still key fundamental concerns with this team. Taking walks, striking out less, and giving up less walks.
Those don't even need a trade to fix them, it's just mentality.
What is the most you would be willing to offer
by IllinoisCubs on Dec 16, 2007 4:18 PM CST up reply actions
hard to judge
Pie is still very young and it may hurt to see him play down the road if we trade him away, but if it gets us a WS Championship, I could care less.
No Way...
If Hendry is going to do this, he's not going to create another hole in the starting rotation by giving up Hill. I agree with other posters here suggesting that there may be a 3-5 game differential upgrade with Bedard.
Including Pie adds another hole! No way!
If the Cubs do this, they would need to include someone who is not slated to be in the starting rotation now but who could start... like a Marshall. Remember, we're stock piling the 'pen.
Marshall, Marmol and a mid-level prospect?!? I am sure we'd get their attention. Maybe add Gallagher and E.Patt and add Roberts to the equation.
Again, the 3 LHP in the starting rotation is suspect.
I'm done
You just created a HUGE hole in CF and possibly downgraded the rotation. Congrats
by IllinoisCubs on Dec 17, 2007 2:12 AM CST up reply actions
If I'm not mistaken....
You have things of extreme value, most likely more value than they will equal as players. Common sense says sell high.
I've said it many times before and I'll say it again, I'd rather win now than hope for the future.
Well
He can play CF like Jacque Jones can play CF. You don't want this, trust me.
"I don't know how to run a ballclub? Apparently nobody else around here does either, we haven't won for 99 years!! Winning your division or going far into the playoffs don't mean anything. You set up a team to win a championship, not contend and hope for the future. What if Rich Hill gets hurt? What if Felix Pie gets hurt? Not just minor injuries, like Mark Prior type injuries."
Hill and Pie have no track record of injuries, Bedard has had a couple. It doesn't mean Hill and Pie will be healthy and Bedard will become injured, but if you are basing things on "Oh this guy could get injured", don't you want to spread out the risk among two players instead of one? In the scenario you lay out, we are screwed if Bedard gets injured, but only 50% screwed if one of Pie or Hill gets injured.
"You have things of extreme value, most likely more value than they will equal as players. Common sense says sell high."
Is it common sense to buy high? Because that's what you are doing with Bedard. He had one great year. Do you really think you are selling high on Pie?
"I've said it many times before and I'll say it again, I'd rather win now than hope for the future."
I agree, but we have to make smart choices based on sound logic. You choices on the other hand....
by IllinoisCubs on Dec 17, 2007 5:30 PM CST up reply actions
Sound logic?
I love both of those guys, and would truly enjoy seeing them at Wrigley playing like the studs they could be. But, as of now, the only one that has a realistic shot of doing that is Hill.
I'd have to think a little about sending Hill over there, but if the deal includes both Bedard and Roberts, idk.
well...
we get Bedard, capitalize on this opportunity the Cubs have right now (a weak NL, good veterans, combo of energetic young players, and a strong bullpen) and get the missing piece to winning in the PLAYOFFS: A deadly 1-2 punch.
Are you just big on Bedard's 2007 stats
by IllinoisCubs on Dec 16, 2007 2:21 AM CST up reply actions
Bedard Improvement
This means he walked 12 less people. Even though he still walked 57 people, his WHIP was 1.08!! Thats ridiculous. If he can give up less homers (19) than he did last year, with his WHIP, he will be a dominant pitcher.
by WUSTLCubsFan on Dec 16, 2007 2:46 AM CST up reply actions
I think the pitching and hitting are about equal
Like it tells you what kind of production we had from Lee's starts, Ward's time at 1B, DeRosa's time, etc. and tells you here are the stats for 2007 Chicago Cubs 1B? Those numbers would be more telling, but I think with Soto, Pie and Fukudome in the lineup (a better Pie once he learns the ropes), I think the offense will be top ten.
I'm up for kicking the tires on those guys or anyone that might improve the team, but I would give trade guidelines.
- Any crucial starter: Z, Lilly, Hill, Marmol, Wood, Wuertz, Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Fukudome, Soto and Pie = untouchable.
- We should try and attach Dempster to any trade. He does not have a role with the team and will cost us $5.5M next year.
- We should only trade Murton and Colvin should be the guys we toss into deals last. I think Colvin could be really special and I think the ideal 2008 lineup invovles starting Fukudome CF/Murton RF against lefties and Pie CF/ Fukudome RF against righties.
- Take the best deal possible. Do not put a priority on pitching vs. hitting. I think a Blanton + Cubs - any non-starter, Roberts + Cubs - any non-starter, Bedard + Cubs - any non-starter could = World Series rings. I'd take Blanton over Bedard if it meant keeping Murton and Colvin.
This is well said.
So if I have to choose, given Roberts or Blanton, and if the price for acquiring each is close to the same, I'd take Blanton.
(Also to a poster above: NO on Bartolo Colon. I think he's done.)
Yes
by IllinoisCubs on Dec 17, 2007 2:57 AM CST up reply actions
wuertz?
and quick question... are we planning on moving marshall to the pen if he's not traded? or are we just gonna roll into the season with eyre as our only lefty?
by sweethomechicago on Dec 16, 2007 8:28 AM CST up reply actions
I can see your point
All of the sudden the bullpen is:
Howry
Marmol
Eyre
and a bunch of question marks
Ascanio? Cotts? Dempster? Gallagher? Harben? Hart? Lahey? Marshall? Mateo? Petrick? Pignatiello? Samardzija?
None of these guys have a major league track record except for Dempster and Marshall. Wuertz could get 4/20M on the open market easy. He has good numbers and solidifies the pen. I think we can get a decent Single-A or Double-A prospect for Dempster from some team desperate for starting pitching. It would be great if we could open up a 40-man roster spot AND save $4.5M to $5.5M next year. Marshall I don' have a problem with in the pen, but Zambrano, Hill, Lilly, and likely Marquis aren't going anywhere anytime soon so the biggest thing Marshall brings to the Cubs is being good trade bait. It would be a waste to have him in the pen.
I think having Eyre in the pen as our only lefty is fine. Cotts and Pignatiello are in the minors. I think the organization could decide to turn Veal into a LOOGY very quickly given his problems. If three-four guys and got another SP, I could see management signing a Ray King type to a one year deal to fill one of those spots.
by IllinoisCubs on Dec 17, 2007 3:21 AM CST up reply actions
IllinoisCubc
If a fantastic deal for an offensive player came along, I'm all for it. But, aside from that, I think the Cubs need pitching, but that's my opinion.
by Snake Plissken on Dec 16, 2007 12:09 PM CST up reply actions
No...
I don't have any problem trading guys like Gallagher, Murton, Patterson, Cedeno, etc.
by IllinoisCubs on Dec 16, 2007 4:19 PM CST up reply actions
In an ideal world, both.
With that in mind, I do think we've made some good - and significant - moves to bolster an offense that did have trouble putting up runs last year. And that was at no real cost to a pitching staff that, as noted above, was 2nd in the NL.
Definitely on the right track, in any case...
4th in ERA
by Snake Plissken on Dec 16, 2007 12:11 PM CST up reply actions
Roberts First, Then Pitching
I agree that the Cubs are on the right track here:
(a) Lefty OBP, defensive minded right fielder. Check (Enter the Fukudome)
(b) Speed (Pursual of Roberts)
(c) Maybe another starting arm (not really mentioned, but the right next step).
Can all of these be done simultaneously? Sure, but (a) was the most important, and did start letting the dominoes fall (e.g., eliminated the consideration of some other players for Plan B, C, etc.).
The more I think of it, thank goodness we did not get Kaz Matsui - no offense to him. But, for the dollars that he commanded (3/16 was it?), we are better off applying those dollars elsewhere.
Including Piniella's salary, the Cubs still have a differential of $18M to get payroll up to $125M (more info on the "Update Math Help Discussion"). That's a lot of wiggle room, especially if you add additional money shed by pushing Marquis.
That said, I would go after Roberts/Figgins first. That may dictate how many additional moves you need to do (based on dollars spent and talent sacrificed). Then, you go after a 2-3 starter, if possible.
There's no problem with going into the season with what we have in terms of SP - Lou will make the decision of who the #4, #5 starters will be. The Cubs likely have enough to get to the post-season. But I agree with most that another 2-3 pitcher will help our cause where it matters - the playoffs. Although more expensive, there's always the July 31st trade deadline.
On that note...
I'm really looking for a sanity check here -- if Wood fails to meet his incentive clauses, the Cubs could be under the $100 million mark in these figures. I don't want to say this is right, but I've double checked all the figures and formulas and everything seems right.
That's really surprising, but yeah
That 2009 salary might get to $125M just by keeping the same guys we have around.
Zambrano: +2.75M
Ramirez: +1.65M
Soriano: +3M
Lilly +5M
Marquis +3.5M
DeRosa +0.75M
We'll have to re-sign Wood, Howry, and Erye. Buyout Blanco for 0.3M (unless you want to pay him 3M). Dempster will be off the books for $5.5M so some of all of that money could be used towards other bullpen guys, but 2009 is going to be very high salary regardless. There's no other free agent out there that deserves big money if you ask me, but Hendry could frontload a contract so some guy makes $25M next year and pennies the rest. That would be funny to see.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/chicago-cubs_112114177768677294.html
by IllinoisCubs on Dec 16, 2007 11:49 AM CST up reply actions
Not Sure If...
If so, that's another $3.33M.
This is how I derived the $18M Hendry has yet to spend.
This also does not include the payroll for players 26-40 on the 40-man roster, except for Neil Cotts' new avoided arbitration contract...
We probablu only have the talent to get
by Snake Plissken on Dec 16, 2007 12:14 PM CST up reply actions
Since we're talking trades
Would you guys rather have an A player for one and a C player for the other
Or 2 B players?
And if you did A and C which would you go for for A pitching or offense?
by puckishcubsfan on Dec 16, 2007 11:15 AM CST reply actions
Four Teams - including Cubs - after Blanton
"According to major league sources, the interest Haren received has made the Athletics more willing to trade Joe Blanton. Although they are not desperate to trade him, they have been talking to teams about a trade. From what I am hearing, the Mariners, Mets, Royals, and Cubs are all interested in trading for Blanton. I doubt the Mariners would unload three or more prospects to someone in their division, and I do not think the Royals are in any place to trade their prospects, as they too, try to rebuild. The Royals also have money available in trying to land Carlos Silva, which they seem more interested in doing. The Mets have been interested in Blanton for awhile and might be willing to trade a package that includes Phillip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and a pair of minor league position prospects. The Cubs have reportedly been looking for an elite American League pitcher and might be in talks with the A's for Blanton. They have the prospects, and a trade for a solid pitcher would definitely put them on top of the Central. A package that included Sean Gallagher, Eric Patterson, Donnie Veal, and maybe Matt Murton would be a start. They might look for Tyler Colvin in the deal, but the Cubs are not interested in trading him, like they are not interested in dealing Donnie Veal or Jeff Samardzjia. I the Athletics will find a suitor, whether it is the Mets or someone else, they will find one. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Indians jump in. GM Mark Shapiro told me before the off season that they are looking for pitching, and with the recent addition the Tigers made, I think they would love to add another legitimate pitcher. We'll see what happens, but don't be surprised if a trade happens in the next week or so.
Posted by Eli at 3:13 PM "
Also, he interviewed Theriot on his site. I link to it below.
Link:
http://mlb-rumors.blogspot.com/2007/12/four-teams-eying-blanton.html
http://mlb-rumors.blogspot.com/2007/11/interview-with-ryan-theriot.html
by Snake Plissken on Dec 16, 2007 12:34 PM CST reply actions
Though
by Snake Plissken on Dec 16, 2007 12:53 PM CST up reply actions
I was just about to say that.
6 seems high but
Looking at the haul for Haren...
In regards to Beane
That's always seem to be his m.o. is finding guys that are over looked by other organizations.
I guess I'm a little
Gallagher is ready to produce now...
Just how much can the lineup be upgraded?
There are two positions the Cubs can upgrade the offense significantly - CF and SS. I don't believe there are any CFs available who are a definite upgrade on what Pie can do. Let him play until the trade deadline and see where we are then.
The Cubs seem set on playing Theriot at SS despite SS being the biggest weak point in the lineup. Of course, the question is, again, what SSs that are better are actually available?
Let's also consider that the Cubs lineup may be better next year, even as formulated. Pie may finally blossom. Soto may continue his success. Lee may continue his second half resurgence throughout all of '08. Aramis may bounce back to his career HR norm. Soriano may stay healthy.
What moves would I make with the lineup?
- I'd trade Wuertz and a minor prospect for Wilson Betemit and have Lou sit Betemit down and tell him to get in shape and win a middle IF job or be doomed to being a backup player.
- Or, I'd trade for Roberts if the price is low enough and I wasn't giving any pieces I could use to get pitching. If I did win Roberts, I'd be shopping DeRosa instead of making him super-sub. Too many teams are shopping for 3B for him not to be worth more to them than he would be to us as a glorified bench player. Alternatively, Orlando Hudson would work in this scenario, especially if he is cheaper than Roberts.
- Kick the tires on Bobby Crosby. See if Beane's willing to sell low on the guy that was supposed to make Oakland forget Miguel Tejada.
- Kick the tires on Furcal and Hu. While I'm shopping in LA, I'd look into Tony Abreu.
Shopping DeRo
The Phils have been very quiet on the 3B front (don't want Inge or Mora; no mention of Crede) considering that 3B is a black hole there. I wonder if there might already be a trade in place?
Hendry: I'll trade you DeRo if we get a replacement at 2B.
Gillick: Deal. That will allow me to trade Helms to the Marlins.
Remember that the Phils wanted DeRo last year, but wouldn't guarantee the third year.
That's an 'interesting' way to look at things...
Who's our back 3B then? We need one everytime there's a night to day game or even 7 games in one week.
I'm not sure how much the Marlins really want Helms. He has an awfully expensive club option for 2009. Granted they can just deny it and try to resign him, but they have nothing to lose by trying someone else in their organization out at 3B. It's not like they are looking to compete this year.
by IllinoisCubs on Dec 17, 2007 1:36 PM CST up reply actions
From the Phils
Remember that the price for making DeRo a twice a week player is not only the $4.75M this year, but the inability to trade the $5.5M next year -- no one will pay anything in prospects or an "everyday player" salary if the team that is trading him has declared that he isn't good enough to play every day.
Just how expensive will a pitching upgrade be?
Sure, I'd be in on Bedard and Blanton and anyone that looks like an upgrade, but it takes two to make a trade and everyone and their brother is shopping for pitching. Here are some not-as-oft-discussed ideas. Unless otherwise noted, I'm not offering Hill in these trade offers.
- If Greinke's really available, let's get him.
- Find out what LA is planning to do with Jason Schmidt. Similarly scout those injured free agents and find out which one looks like they can be healthy in Sept-Oct.
- Inquire on guys like Daniel Cabrera, Ervin Santana, and Edwin Jackson.
- Absolutely don't waste rotation slots on low-ceiling guys.
- Be willing to do an in-division trade for Anthony Reyes and let Larry show Dave how it's done with the second starting pitcher in a row.
- File this under crazy and never-going-to-happen, but I'd offer Soriano, Colvin, and Patterson for Lincecum, Winn, and Durham. There's no telling what Sabean is willing to do.
The Cubs need both.
If we are talking choices based on limited resources then the Cubs may have enough potential talent in arms to rely on improvement from within, so if we're talking about improving from outside then I'd focus more on an everyday player. I would have gone after A-Rod and put him at first base and traded Lee.
Pitching & hitting
If we acquired Roberts he would be a marginal upgrade over DeRosa, depending on what's done with DeRosa. If he replaces Pie or Theriot it's likely a major upgrade. If he super-subs it's back to marginal.
Blanton or Bedard, either would be a significant upgrade over Marquis, and if either kept Dempster out of the rotation I would have to call it major.
Seems to me that if Roberts were a shortstop he would be the obvious player to target and acquire, but since he's not then pitching is probably the way to go.
I picked Bedard
I like Roberts, don't get me wrong. I would like to see the rotation improved before getting another position player. A Roberts acquisition would convolute things with DeRo. With the Domer in right (please Jimbo, no experiments like with Fonz, keep the Domer in right), does DeRo go to SS with Roberts? That's a different diary discussion.
Getting Bedard or Blanton would help assure both Marquis and Dempster are not in the opening day rotation. Blanton may be a better/quicker move now that it appears Beane is full rebuild. A Bedard discussion can't be made w/o talking Roberts. Don't know if the O's would do that though its a move I advocated earlier.

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