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Pitching or Offense

The debate has raged on in the Blanton diary to the point that I believe it deserves its' own thread. And, sense I started the blanton diary I'll get this one going too.

The broad question is whether the Cubs need more and better starting pitching or another quality offensive player.

Specifically, whether the Cubs should try to trade for Bedard or Joe Blanton on the pitching side, or Roberts on the offensive side.

In the expanded article I have included numbers and a  poll.

Star-divide

Erik Bedard in '07:

28 Gs 182 IPs 3.16 ERA 1.09 WHIP 221 Ks 57 BBs

Joe Blanton in '07:

34 Gs 230 IPs 3.95 ERA 1.22 WHIP 140 Ks 40 BBs

Brian Roberts in '07

156 Gs .290 AVG .377 OBP .432 SLG 12 HRs 57 RBIs 103 Rs 50 SBs

Poll
Cubs' Priority
Erik Bedard
72 votes
Joe Blanton
19 votes
Brian Roberts
32 votes

123 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

Comment 68 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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My Take?
We should trade for Joe Blanton, and quickly.

Billy Beane has all but announced he's rebuilding, and A's.com suggests Blanton is on the table, as has mlbtraderumors.com (Yeah, I know). Links below:

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071214&content_id=2326969&vkey=news_ oak&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/starting-pitchi.html

Blanton will be cheaper than Bedard, and, while not a true #2 at keast not right now, he will provide stability to our rotation. Z was inconsistent last season, Lilly had a career year, but who knows if he'll repeat it, Hill is young and inconsistent, marquis was good before the All Star break and bad after, and the #5 hole was a revolving door. Blanton also splits up our lefties:

Z
Lilly
Blanton
Hill
Marquis/Dempster/Hart/Petrick/Marshall

by Snake Plissken on Dec 15, 2007 11:23 PM CST reply actions  

colon
Bartolo Colon
1 year incentives

by plenz on Dec 15, 2007 11:30 PM CST up reply actions  

I would agree
With this, that is, if Bedard wasn't available.  He's a true stud, even comparable to Zambrano right now for us.  

I don't know what some Cubs fans have been smoking saying there is no disparity between him and Hill, but there is.  He is so much better it boggles my mind to see some of those comments.

That being said, I'd like to acquire both he and Roberts, but if I had to choose it'd be Bedard.  We don't need 3/5 of a rotation.  I'd be much happier with Bedard and Marquis in the 5, or most likely 4 spot to break up the lefties.

Zambrano
Bedard
Lilly
Marquis
Hill

and then:

Roberts-ss
Fukudome-rf
Lee-1b
Soriano-lf
Ramirez-3b
DeRosa-2b
Soto-c
Pie-cf

Wrap up the division and most likely the NL with a rotation and lineup like that.

by zam on Dec 15, 2007 11:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Bedard & Hill
With 4 full seasons Bedard has had ERA's of 4.59, 4.00, 3.76 and 3.17. He has not yet topped 200 innings in any of them. For 3 years in a row he had k/9 in the high 7s, and all of the sudden last year it jumped to the high 10. That to me is a warning sign more than a positive. No doubt Bedard is better than Hill right now, especially considering in the league he pitches. But to me having Bedard and giving up Hill plus a ton more is not worth it. If the Cubs could aquire him without giving up Hill that's another story. Hill seems very comparable to Bedard with probably just as high a ceiling (or maybe higher considering Hill's minor league numbers) and more years of team control. I say no thanks (because of the cost in future money and prospects).

Luis

by Luis on Dec 16, 2007 12:06 AM CST up reply actions  

notice.......
how Bedard's ERA has gone DOWN every year.  The only reason he didn't top 200 last year was because of precautions.  He could've, but why should the Orioles worry about getting him back from an injury if they have nothing to play for?  I don't see how an increasin k/9 is a warning sign.....find some reasons for it and I'll look into it.

BTW-I notice a certain stat is missing from Roberts line up there, might wanna try adding his 50 stolen bases, that makes a difference.

by zam on Dec 16, 2007 12:10 AM CST up reply actions  

K/9
Bedard's K/9 the last four seasons:

7.93, 7.94, 7.84 & 10.93.

That just doesn't seem sustainable. For a guy that had an extremely consistent ratio for 3 years to all of the sudden increase by 3 points doesn't seem like a natural progression or something you can count on. In fact, based on that info alone, I think there's a good chance that his performance in 2007 may have been a high point and it's going to come back more down to earth in the following years. That is just a personal opinion though, I don't have any comparables at the moment to make an informed judgment. Anyone else see this K/9 ratio of 2007 as something he can sustain or come close to again?

Luis

by Luis on Dec 16, 2007 12:30 AM CST up reply actions  

I could care less
If he can't sustain the near-11 k/9 rate.  If he doesn't duplicate and moves down closer to his usual 7.9, that's still pretty good.  To top it all off he's had a better ERA than Hill in a very tough division in a league where he faces 9 hitters everyday.

He is a stud, thats about it.

by zam on Dec 16, 2007 3:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Do you think that
3.70 ERA qualifies a pitcher into "stud" status?

Because if not, then you are saying Bedard is a stud based on a 1 year performance where his K/9 jumped unexpectedly to a ridiculous 11 per 9. If it comes back down into the high 7 range, do you believe he will put up the same numbers as he did last year in terms of ERA? I think it's possible, but not probable.

Giving up Hill + others doesn't make the Cubs a significantly better ballclub, not even in the immediate future.

Luis

PS: went to the game today to see Pie... he went 0-3 with a flyball to right, a flyball to left and a comebacker to the pitcher. At least no strikeouts today... although he seems to be always behind in the count.

by Luis on Dec 16, 2007 7:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Additional Commentary
Hey Luis!

Can you discuss more on the topic of Pie?  I am not too concerned with his output, but rather his swing.  

Is his swing more controlled and compact?  Did he get some good hacks at hitter's pitches and lay off the pitcher's pitches?  Was the ball explosive off his bat, albeit fair/foul/outs/etc.?

This is our bonus prize...

by initram on Dec 16, 2007 7:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Some comments
I have watched Pie on TV a couple of times here with Licey and at the game today. Concerning the game today, the hardest ball he hit was the fly to RF, but the ball didn't get near enough the warning track and it wasn't a line drive either. The other two balls were not hit especially hard, although it wasn't bad contact either. I can't really tell you if he was swining at strikes because from where I was standing (and because I rarely see games live) it was hard for me tell. However, I have seen him on TV with Licey a couple of times and I didn't like how his swing looked. It just seem to be out-of-whack. And it definitely wasn't compact. One day he struck out three straight times and a couple of those he looked really bad. I also think that one of reasons Pie is always behind in the count is that he makes up his mind when he's not going to swing before the pitch. He doesn't seem to have the ability to start his swing and stop if he sees the pitch is out of the zone. When he takes any balls is when he is 0-2 or 1-2 and he knows the pitch has a good chance of being a ball. I heard someone today call him "the eternal promise" (because he has not shown an ability to produce in this league). All this being said, a friend of mine who goes to park regularly said that Pie hit the hardest HR he has seen this year (he has 2 in total). Anyways, to answer your question more specifically: Pie guesses a lot in terms of what to swing at, so sometimes he swings at pitcher's pitches and sometimes at hitter's pitches. But he quickly gets into a whole and the just swings at very bad ones, especially the offspead stuff which I've seen him miss by a lot. Maybe his defense will keep him in the bigs, but at least right now, neither his swing nor his approach at the plate is MLB close.

Luis

by Luis on Dec 16, 2007 8:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Paragraph breaks are your friend
"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion

by DTJchris on Dec 16, 2007 8:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Luis
Agreed, will keep it in mind for next time.

by Luis on Dec 16, 2007 9:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Offense first
The Cubs finished 2nd in pitching in the AL. In terms of runs scored, they were middle of the pack or slightly worse. I think that pretty much sums it up. While you can expect that every pitcher will duplicate their 2007 performance, the Cubs have put themselves in a very nice position where they have plenty of people ready in case anyone falters. I think the last thing the Cubs should do is trade for pitching. That is their strength, and it's what is giving them the oportunity to keep the payroll at manageable levels (Hill, Marmol, etc.). While it's true that the Cubs really didn't have shut-them-down guys for the playoffs like they did when they had Wood/Prior, I would rather they show the ability to become a winning club consistently before thinking of this as a problem (which in the end may solve itself if Hill becomes better or Zambrano learns to throw less pitches per inning). Fukudome is a fantastic addition, but if more can be done, I would opt for offense.

Luis

by Luis on Dec 15, 2007 11:39 PM CST reply actions  

Errrrr
Meant to say NL instead of AL, and also that you can't expect each pitcher to duplicate 2007 (some will be worse, others better)

by Luis on Dec 15, 2007 11:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Pitching
I would say that the cubs need one more shut down arm and should make a serious run at Bedard.  The fact is, Lilly pitched very well in 2007, but I don't expect him to put up those numbers that make him a legit 2 starter.  He is good in the 3 slot.  Also, if we acquire Bedard, that pushes Lilly down to the 3, Hill to the 4 (and will be one of the best 4 starters in baseball) and then we can mix and match with the 5.  The cubs could try plugging in different farm system players or give marquis/dempster a shot, but those 2 aren't consistent enough for my taste, and a much cheaper option could provide comparable stats, and give some rookies (Gallagher/Hart assuming one of them isn't gone after the trade) a look.

by WUSTLCubsFan on Dec 16, 2007 12:08 AM CST reply actions  

Three Lefties
in a row?

by Cub Fan in Card Country on Dec 16, 2007 1:25 AM CST up reply actions  

What you're failing to look at here...
...is that pitching costs more than hitting.

Actually, that's one of many ways in which you're failing to contextualize this entire arguement.

Let's put it to you this way. You win baseball games by scoring more runs than you allow. The Cubs can improve their run prevention -- either by improving the pitching OR by improving the defense. (Defense, by the way, being the thing that you entirely ignored here.) Or they can improve their run scoring.

An extra marginal win is an extra marginal win, and at the end of the day it doesn't matter where they come from. The Cubs need to look at the resources they have left (salary room and trading chips) and committ them to the most wins they can get, relative to what they already have on hand. Everything else is irrelevant.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Dec 16, 2007 1:31 AM CST reply actions  

Ok...
I am fully aware that pitching costs more than hitting, and that in order to win baseball games you have to score more runs than the other team. We will have to give up some good prospects to get Bedard.  O well.  With Bedard, our number 2 starter can takedown any other number 2 starter in the league.  Lets say the cubs get to the World series, would you rather have Roberts leading off and Ted Lilly facing off against CC Sabathia, Kelvim Escobar or Schilling ?  I'd MUCH rather have De Rosa hitting 7th and playing second instead of Roberts with Bedard taking the mound.

by WUSTLCubsFan on Dec 16, 2007 1:48 AM CST up reply actions  

Oh well.
Yeah, so what if we're going to give up good, young pitchers. Obviously that doesn't matter - not even going to DISCUSS it, apparently - because we need to address the shocking lack of machismo in the starting rotation.

Yeesh.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Dec 16, 2007 1:57 AM CST up reply actions  

Defense
Doesn't account for saving as many runs as good pitching does. I you have a stat that says otherwise, I'd like to see it.

by Snake Plissken on Dec 16, 2007 12:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Pitching wins........
If you don't have good pitchers, it won't matter what kind of defense you have on there.  Adding good defensive players takes away about 10 hits per year per player.  Adding a better pitcher, substantially more than that.

The offense is fine right now, the pitching isn't.  I don't know if I can entrust a great deal of our future in Rich Hill yet.

I go by the rules that I'd rather have a proven player now than take a gamble on someone down the road.  What would be better than winning it all this year?  What gives you the best chance at that?  Adding Bedard and Roberts is the best plan of action right now, no matter how much it costs.

We've been complaining about how little this team spends, then finally the reins are taken off and we get stingy?  Spend as much as it takes to win, the Yankees and Red Sox have no problems with that.

I for one would rather win now than worry about developing players in a few years and maybe we cn win then.

by zam on Dec 16, 2007 12:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Seriously.
This was one of the top five teams in baseball when it came to pitching/defense. It was not even a top half offensive team. Three playoff games don't significantly change that.
I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Dec 16, 2007 12:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Oh
So thats why we had 4 of our starters give up 22+ home runs. And our best pitcher walked 101 batters.  Not to mention the 14 he hit.

 

by zam on Dec 16, 2007 12:23 PM CST up reply actions  

The HR....
... is kind of a red herring.

Ted Lilly, who led the Cubs by allowing 28 HR, was one of the top lefties in the league.

Nine pitchers in the NL allowed more HR than Lilly, including Cy Young candidate Aaron Harang. Except for Harang and Bronson Arroyo, all of those nine allowed more HR than Lilly in fewer innings pitched than Lilly had.

I agree, I'm concerned about the number of walks Z gives up. Nevertheless, he still produces. Would I like to get another 1/2 starter to add to the mix? You bet. I'm not sure the Cubs have the pieces to offer for, say, Erik Bedard, though.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Dec 16, 2007 12:33 PM CST up reply actions  

they have the pieces
it's just a matter of making a decision.  I don't see how you can get around involving Hill in a deal for Bedard.  If you can, do it right away.  Otherwise, as I said, you have to make a decision.  Try as hard as you can and only worry about now, or bank on Hill having an even better season than last year and ride him out.

Either way, there are still key fundamental concerns with this team.  Taking walks, striking out less, and giving up less walks.

Those don't even need a trade to fix them, it's just mentality.

by zam on Dec 16, 2007 12:45 PM CST up reply actions  

hard to judge
Rich Hill, Felix Pie, and another prospect.  Still, it's less than what the Reds are putting out there.  I'm just not as high on developing prospects as I am for trading some of them away to get ML players to win now.  Keep a few of them, but most prospects could be used to get a proven player.

Pie is still very young and it may hurt to see him play down the road if we trade him away, but if it gets us a WS Championship, I could care less.

by zam on Dec 16, 2007 5:28 PM CST up reply actions  

No Way...
... we've bantered about this enough.

If Hendry is going to do this, he's not going to create another hole in the starting rotation by giving up Hill.  I agree with other posters here suggesting that there may be a 3-5 game differential upgrade with Bedard.

Including Pie adds another hole!  No way!

If the Cubs do this, they would need to include someone who is not slated to be in the starting rotation now but who could start... like a Marshall.  Remember, we're stock piling the 'pen.

Marshall, Marmol and a mid-level prospect?!?  I am sure we'd get their attention.  Maybe add Gallagher and E.Patt and add Roberts to the equation.

Again, the 3 LHP in the starting rotation is suspect.

by initram on Dec 16, 2007 5:34 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm done
You don't know how to run a ball club.

You just created a HUGE hole in CF and possibly downgraded the rotation.  Congrats

by IllinoisCubs on Dec 17, 2007 2:12 AM CST up reply actions  

If I'm not mistaken....
we just signed a CF. I don't know how to run a ballclub?  Apparently nobody else around here does either, we haven't won for 99 years!!  Winning your division or going far into the playoffs don't mean anything.  You set up a team to win a championship, not contend and hope for the future.  What if Rich Hill gets hurt?  What if Felix Pie gets hurt?  Not just minor injuries, like Mark Prior type injuries.  The they are worth absolutely nothing, just like Prior is now.

You have things of extreme value, most likely more value than they will equal as players.  Common sense says sell high.

I've said it many times before and I'll say it again, I'd rather win now than hope for the future.

by zam on Dec 17, 2007 3:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Well
"we just signed a CF."

He can play CF like Jacque Jones can play CF.  You don't want this, trust me.

"I don't know how to run a ballclub?  Apparently nobody else around here does either, we haven't won for 99 years!!  Winning your division or going far into the playoffs don't mean anything.  You set up a team to win a championship, not contend and hope for the future.  What if Rich Hill gets hurt?  What if Felix Pie gets hurt?  Not just minor injuries, like Mark Prior type injuries."

Hill and Pie have no track record of injuries, Bedard has had a couple.  It doesn't mean Hill and Pie will be healthy and Bedard will become injured, but if you are basing things on "Oh this guy could get injured", don't you want to spread out the risk among two players instead of one?  In the scenario you lay out, we are screwed if Bedard gets injured, but only 50% screwed if one of Pie or Hill gets injured.

"You have things of extreme value, most likely more value than they will equal as players.  Common sense says sell high."

Is it common sense to buy high?  Because that's what you are doing with Bedard.  He had one great year.  Do you really think you are selling high on Pie?

"I've said it many times before and I'll say it again, I'd rather win now than hope for the future."

I agree, but we have to make smart choices based on sound logic.  You choices on the other hand....

by IllinoisCubs on Dec 17, 2007 5:30 PM CST up reply actions  

Sound logic?
What has Pie proven besides his inability to be more selective and become a better hitter over the years?

I love both of those guys, and would truly enjoy seeing them at Wrigley playing like the studs they could be.  But, as of now, the only one that has a realistic shot of doing that is Hill.

I'd have to think a little about sending Hill over there, but if the deal includes both Bedard and Roberts, idk.

by zam on Dec 17, 2007 8:37 PM CST up reply actions  

well...
...we could just wait for prospects to develop.  Its only going to be 100 years since we have won the World Series if we don't win it this year.  OR...

we get Bedard, capitalize on this opportunity the Cubs have right now (a weak NL, good veterans, combo of energetic young players, and a strong bullpen) and get the missing piece to winning in the PLAYOFFS: A deadly 1-2 punch.

by WUSTLCubsFan on Dec 16, 2007 2:16 AM CST reply actions  

Are you just big on Bedard's 2007 stats
Or do you know why he was much better this year like down to what pitch was more effective?

by IllinoisCubs on Dec 16, 2007 2:21 AM CST up reply actions  

Bedard Improvement
I remember watching on baseball tonight when they broke down why he was having a good season and it basically came down to him being able to control his fastball, and by that I mean causing it to tail to either side or downward in the strikezone.

This means he walked 12 less people.  Even though he still walked 57 people, his WHIP was 1.08!!  Thats ridiculous.  If he can give up less homers (19) than he did last year, with his WHIP, he will be a dominant pitcher.

by WUSTLCubsFan on Dec 16, 2007 2:46 AM CST up reply actions  

I think the pitching and hitting are about equal
Does anyone know where you can get stats so it tells you the production that came out of every at-bat at each position?

Like it tells you what kind of production we had from Lee's starts, Ward's time at 1B, DeRosa's time, etc. and tells you here are the stats for 2007 Chicago Cubs 1B?  Those numbers would be more telling, but I think with Soto, Pie and Fukudome in the lineup (a better Pie once he learns the ropes), I think the offense will be top ten.  

I'm up for kicking the tires on those guys or anyone that might improve the team, but I would give trade guidelines.

  1. Any crucial starter: Z, Lilly, Hill, Marmol, Wood, Wuertz, Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Fukudome, Soto and Pie = untouchable.
  2. We should try and attach Dempster to any trade.  He does not have a role with the team and will cost us $5.5M next year.
  3. We should only trade Murton and Colvin should be the guys we toss into deals last.  I think Colvin could be really special and I think the ideal 2008 lineup invovles starting Fukudome CF/Murton RF against lefties and Pie CF/ Fukudome RF against righties.
  4. Take the best deal possible.  Do not put a priority on pitching vs. hitting.  I think a Blanton + Cubs - any non-starter, Roberts + Cubs - any non-starter, Bedard + Cubs - any non-starter could = World Series rings.  I'd take Blanton over Bedard if it meant keeping Murton and Colvin.  

by IllinoisCubs on Dec 16, 2007 2:18 AM CST reply actions  

This is well said.
However, let me point out that in general, if you have outstanding pitching, you are more likely to win playoff series. The Cubs/D'backs series proved that... Arizona's pitching shut down the Cubs' offense. The Red Sox did pretty much the same thing in the World Series.

So if I have to choose, given Roberts or Blanton, and if the price for acquiring each is close to the same, I'd take Blanton.

(Also to a poster above: NO on Bartolo Colon. I think he's done.)

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Dec 16, 2007 4:51 AM CST up reply actions  

Yes
If I could add a 5th guideline or a subclause to one, I would say pitching before hitting if the prices are very close to equal.  Bedard or Blanton plus Zambrano, Lilly, and Hill would be the best rotation in baseball.

by IllinoisCubs on Dec 17, 2007 2:57 AM CST up reply actions  

wuertz?
adding wuertz to your untouchable's list is a little much don't you think?

and quick question... are we planning on moving marshall to the pen if he's not traded? or are we just gonna roll into the season with eyre as our only lefty?

FUKU!!!

by sweethomechicago on Dec 16, 2007 8:28 AM CST up reply actions  

I can see your point
However, let's say we deal Wuertz and Wood gets injured.  

All of the sudden the bullpen is:

Howry
Marmol
Eyre
and a bunch of question marks

Ascanio? Cotts? Dempster? Gallagher? Harben? Hart? Lahey? Marshall? Mateo? Petrick? Pignatiello? Samardzija?

None of these guys have a major league track record except for Dempster and Marshall.  Wuertz could get 4/20M on the open market easy.  He has good numbers and solidifies the pen.  I think we can get a decent Single-A or Double-A prospect for Dempster from some team desperate for starting pitching.  It would be great if we could open up a 40-man roster spot AND save $4.5M to $5.5M next year.  Marshall I don' have a problem with in the pen, but Zambrano, Hill, Lilly, and likely Marquis aren't going anywhere anytime soon so the biggest thing Marshall brings to the Cubs is being good trade bait.  It would be a waste to have him in the pen.  

I think having Eyre in the pen as our only lefty is fine.  Cotts and Pignatiello are in the minors.  I think the organization could decide to turn Veal into a LOOGY very quickly given his problems.  If three-four guys and got another SP, I could see management signing a Ray King type to a one year deal to fill one of those spots.

by IllinoisCubs on Dec 17, 2007 3:21 AM CST up reply actions  

IllinoisCubc
I feel like I, and others, have convinced you...a little.

If a fantastic deal for an offensive player came along, I'm all for it. But, aside from that, I think the Cubs need pitching, but that's my opinion.

by Snake Plissken on Dec 16, 2007 12:09 PM CST up reply actions  

No...
This is what I have thought all along.

I don't have any problem trading guys like Gallagher, Murton, Patterson, Cedeno, etc.  

by IllinoisCubs on Dec 16, 2007 4:19 PM CST up reply actions  

In an ideal world, both.
Still, it matters how much we have to give up in exchange for one or the other.  Some additions are in reality subtractions and those are ill-advised.

With that in mind, I do think we've made some good - and significant - moves to bolster an offense that did have trouble putting up runs last year.  And that was at no real cost to a pitching staff that, as noted above, was 2nd in the NL.

Definitely on the right track, in any case...

by MN exile on Dec 16, 2007 9:15 AM CST reply actions  

4th in ERA
I don't know where that person got 2nd, it may be overall, I don't know.

by Snake Plissken on Dec 16, 2007 12:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Roberts First, Then Pitching
It's been pretty apparent that this is the Cubs plans.  This diary isn't asking, though, what we thought the Cubs will do, but rather, what we thought the Cubs should do.

I agree that the Cubs are on the right track here:

(a) Lefty OBP, defensive minded right fielder.  Check (Enter the Fukudome)
(b) Speed (Pursual of Roberts)
(c) Maybe another starting arm (not really mentioned, but the right next step).

Can all of these be done simultaneously?  Sure, but (a) was the most important, and did start letting the dominoes fall (e.g., eliminated the consideration of some other players for Plan B, C, etc.).

The more I think of it, thank goodness we did not get Kaz Matsui - no offense to him.  But, for the dollars that he commanded (3/16 was it?), we are better off applying those dollars elsewhere.

Including Piniella's salary, the Cubs still have a differential of $18M to get payroll up to $125M (more info on the "Update Math Help Discussion").  That's a lot of wiggle room, especially if you add additional money shed by pushing Marquis.

That said, I would go after Roberts/Figgins first.  That may dictate how many additional moves you need to do (based on dollars spent and talent sacrificed).  Then, you go after a 2-3 starter, if possible.  

There's no problem with going into the season with what we have in terms of SP - Lou will make the decision of who the #4, #5 starters will be.  The Cubs likely have enough to get to the post-season.  But I agree with most that another 2-3 pitcher will help our cause where it matters - the playoffs.  Although more expensive, there's always the July 31st trade deadline.

by initram on Dec 16, 2007 9:43 AM CST reply actions  

On that note...
...an updated version of the figures.

I'm really looking for a sanity check here -- if Wood fails to meet his incentive clauses, the Cubs could be under the $100 million mark in these figures. I don't want to say this is right, but I've double checked all the figures and formulas and everything seems right.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Dec 16, 2007 11:26 AM CST up reply actions  

That's really surprising, but yeah
I think your numbers are 100% correct.

That 2009 salary might get to $125M just by keeping the same guys we have around.  

Zambrano: +2.75M
Ramirez: +1.65M
Soriano: +3M
Lilly +5M
Marquis +3.5M
DeRosa +0.75M

We'll have to re-sign Wood, Howry, and Erye.  Buyout Blanco for 0.3M (unless you want to pay him 3M).  Dempster will be off the books for $5.5M so some of all of that money could be used towards other bullpen guys, but 2009 is going to be very high salary regardless.  There's no other free agent out there that deserves big money if you ask me, but Hendry could frontload a contract so some guy makes $25M next year and pennies the rest.  That would be funny to see.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/chicago-cubs_112114177768677294.html

by IllinoisCubs on Dec 16, 2007 11:49 AM CST up reply actions  

Not Sure If...
... Piniella would be included in the payroll total or not.

If so, that's another $3.33M.

This is how I derived the $18M Hendry has yet to spend.  

This also does not include the payroll for players 26-40 on the 40-man roster, except for Neil Cotts' new avoided arbitration contract...

by initram on Dec 16, 2007 2:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Since we're talking trades
Since we're talking trades we're not likely to be able to land a superstar for both.

Would you guys rather have an A player for one and a C player for the other

Or 2 B players?

And if you did A and C which would you go for for A pitching or offense?

We are all waiting for that glorious October night when we finally win it all. Until then we will continue to cheer, never do the wave and hope.

by puckishcubsfan on Dec 16, 2007 11:15 AM CST reply actions  

Four Teams - including Cubs - after Blanton
This is taken from mlb-rumors.com, not to be confsed with mlbtraderumors.com (Yeah I know). I don't know who tis guy is, or how accurate he is, but here you go:

"According to major league sources, the interest Haren received has made the Athletics more willing to trade Joe Blanton. Although they are not desperate to trade him, they have been talking to teams about a trade. From what I am hearing, the Mariners, Mets, Royals, and Cubs are all interested in trading for Blanton. I doubt the Mariners would unload three or more prospects to someone in their division, and I do not think the Royals are in any place to trade their prospects, as they too, try to rebuild. The Royals also have money available in trying to land Carlos Silva, which they seem more interested in doing. The Mets have been interested in Blanton for awhile and might be willing to trade a package that includes Phillip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and a pair of minor league position prospects. The Cubs have reportedly been looking for an elite American League pitcher and might be in talks with the A's for Blanton. They have the prospects, and a trade for a solid pitcher would definitely put them on top of the Central. A package that included Sean Gallagher, Eric Patterson, Donnie Veal, and maybe Matt Murton would be a start. They might look for Tyler Colvin in the deal, but the Cubs are not interested in trading him, like they are not interested in dealing Donnie Veal or Jeff Samardzjia. I the Athletics will find a suitor, whether it is the Mets or someone else, they will find one. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Indians jump in. GM Mark Shapiro told me before the off season that they are looking for pitching, and with the recent addition the Tigers made, I think they would love to add another legitimate pitcher. We'll see what happens, but don't be surprised if a trade happens in the next week or so.

Posted by Eli at 3:13 PM "

Also, he interviewed Theriot on his site. I link to it below.

Link:

http://mlb-rumors.blogspot.com/2007/12/four-teams-eying-blanton.html

http://mlb-rumors.blogspot.com/2007/11/interview-with-ryan-theriot.html

by Snake Plissken on Dec 16, 2007 12:34 PM CST reply actions  

Though
His suggested package is a little high for a "start".

by Snake Plissken on Dec 16, 2007 12:53 PM CST up reply actions  

I was just about to say that.
Six guys for Blanton? This is why trading with Billy Beane isn't easy.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Dec 16, 2007 1:05 PM CST up reply actions  

6 seems high but
I bet Colvin and Gallagher would be on the list.  Beane will want high ceiling guys and these are the Cubs highest ones that they could afford to trade.  

by rlpete on Dec 16, 2007 1:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Looking at the haul for Haren...
...I don't know if the A's want Gallagher, per se. I'm sure they'd take him, but I think guys like Colvin, Samardzija, Pawalek and Veal would interest him more. He seems to be retooling for 2009 at the earliest, and trying to load up on Low-A, High-A and AA players, so they can "graduate" at least three or four key guys at around the same time.
I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Dec 16, 2007 1:16 PM CST up reply actions  

In regards to Beane
let him take a couple of our high end prospects and than say he can pick a few diamonds in the rough through our lower minor league systems.  

That's always seem to be his m.o. is finding guys that are over looked by other organizations.  

"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion

by DTJchris on Dec 16, 2007 1:31 PM CST up reply actions  

I guess I'm a little
higher on Gallagher than Veal.  Pawalek is such an unknown than Gallagher made sense.  You just never know with Beane though.    

by rlpete on Dec 16, 2007 4:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Gallagher is ready to produce now...
...while Veal may never be. But Gallagher will never be an ace, and Veal could be. And looking at the way they operated with the Haren trade, it looks like they're trying to get quantity AND quality by taking on a lot of risk with guys that may never pan out.
I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Dec 16, 2007 4:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Just how much can the lineup be upgraded?
That is the question for me.  Replacing DeRosa with Roberts is an upgrade, but is it enough of an upgrade for the cost (assuming DeRosa is kept as 400 AB super-sub instead of traded)?  

There are two positions the Cubs can upgrade the offense significantly - CF and SS.  I don't believe there are any CFs available who are a definite upgrade on what Pie can do.  Let him play until the trade deadline and see where we are then.

The Cubs seem set on playing Theriot at SS despite SS being the biggest weak point in the lineup.  Of course, the question is, again, what SSs that are better are actually available?

Let's also consider that the Cubs lineup may be better next year, even as formulated.  Pie may finally blossom.  Soto may continue his success.  Lee may continue his second half resurgence throughout all of '08.  Aramis may bounce back to his career HR norm.  Soriano may stay healthy.

What moves would I make with the lineup?  

  1. I'd trade Wuertz and a minor prospect for Wilson Betemit and have Lou sit Betemit down and tell him to get in shape and win a middle IF job or be doomed to being a backup player.
  2. Or, I'd trade for Roberts if the price is low enough and I wasn't giving any pieces I could use to get pitching.  If I did win Roberts, I'd be shopping DeRosa instead of making him super-sub.  Too many teams are shopping for 3B for him not to be worth more to them than he would be to us as a glorified bench player.  Alternatively, Orlando Hudson would work in this scenario, especially if he is cheaper than Roberts.
  3. Kick the tires on Bobby Crosby.  See if Beane's willing to sell low on the guy that was supposed to make Oakland forget Miguel Tejada.
  4. Kick the tires on Furcal and Hu.  While I'm shopping in LA, I'd look into Tony Abreu.
All I am saying is give Pie a chance!

by DGU on Dec 16, 2007 10:52 PM CST reply actions  

Shopping DeRo
If the Cubs get Roberts (or Hudson or Figgins or ...), DeRo is gone.  They won't keep $4.75M on the bench, especially when a poor start by Riot might increase the pressure to bench him with DeRo available.

The Phils have been very quiet on the 3B front (don't want Inge or Mora; no mention of Crede) considering that 3B is a black hole there.  I wonder if there might already be a trade in place?

Hendry:  I'll trade you DeRo if we get a replacement at 2B.
Gillick:  Deal.  That will allow me to trade Helms to the Marlins.

Remember that the Phils wanted DeRo last year, but wouldn't guarantee the third year.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Dec 17, 2007 12:29 PM CST up reply actions  

That's an 'interesting' way to look at things...
What would we trade DeRosa for?  Do you realize that he backs up Ramirez too?  Roberts can't play every day at 2B either.

Who's our back 3B then?  We need one everytime there's a night to day game or even 7 games in one week.  

I'm not sure how much the Marlins really want Helms.  He has an awfully expensive club option for 2009.  Granted they can just deny it and try to resign him, but they have nothing to lose by trying someone else in their organization out at 3B.  It's not like they are looking to compete this year.

by IllinoisCubs on Dec 17, 2007 1:36 PM CST up reply actions  

From the Phils
Hendry would probably want Bruntlett, who is good defensively just about anywhere (including CF and SS), but who hasn't shown a good bat yet, and one or two prospects.  That would give the team a cheaper "super-sub", prospects for the future, and clear $4.75M in payroll.

Remember that the price for making DeRo a twice a week player is not only the $4.75M this year, but the inability to trade the $5.5M next year -- no one will pay anything in prospects or an "everyday player" salary if the team that is trading him has declared that he isn't good enough to play every day.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Dec 17, 2007 3:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Just how expensive will a pitching upgrade be?
By making two posts (that may or may not end up back-to-back) I hope it's clear that I think the original diary question suggests a false dichotomy.  There are ways to upgrade both the pitching and the lineup if you are willing to shop for bargains in one or both areas, something Jim Hendry has been very good at (from Aramis Ramirez who was hitting .280/.330/.448 when we traded for him to Mark DeRosa).

Sure, I'd be in on Bedard and Blanton and anyone that looks like an upgrade, but it takes two to make a trade and everyone and their brother is shopping for pitching.  Here are some not-as-oft-discussed ideas.  Unless otherwise noted, I'm not offering Hill in these trade offers.

  1. If Greinke's really available, let's get him.
  2. Find out what LA is planning to do with Jason Schmidt.  Similarly scout those injured free agents and find out which one looks like they can be healthy in Sept-Oct.
  3. Inquire on guys like Daniel Cabrera, Ervin Santana, and Edwin Jackson.
  4. Absolutely don't waste rotation slots on low-ceiling guys.
  5. Be willing to do an in-division trade for Anthony Reyes and let Larry show Dave how it's done with the second starting pitcher in a row.
  6. File this under crazy and never-going-to-happen, but I'd offer Soriano, Colvin, and Patterson for Lincecum, Winn, and Durham.  There's no telling what Sabean is willing to do.
All I am saying is give Pie a chance!

by DGU on Dec 16, 2007 11:14 PM CST reply actions  

The Cubs need both.
The Cubs' lineup and overally roster was improved signifcantly from 2006 to 2007.  However, the Cubs still lack top players in both the rotation and everyday lineup.  The Cubs had an incredible future with Z, Prior and Wood, before the arms were destroyed.  One Z is not enough.  In addition, as outstanding a player and pro as Derek Lee may be, he's not David Ortiz or Manny...He's a notch, and it's a signifcant ntoch, below those kinds of players.  The Cubs need more great players period.

If we are talking choices based on limited resources then the Cubs may have enough potential talent in arms to rely on improvement from within, so if we're talking about improving from outside then I'd focus more on an everyday player.  I would have gone after A-Rod and put him at first base and traded Lee.

by DudeVf11 on Dec 16, 2007 11:21 PM CST reply actions  

Pitching & hitting
Our pitching was better last year than our hitting.  So far this winter we've upgraded our offense somewhat significantly.  I would guess that our returning offensive players will progress next year as a group while our returning pitchers might regress a little as a group, though there is actually room for improvement.  If things break right, both hitting and pitching could bet top five in the NL next season.  

If we acquired Roberts he would be a marginal upgrade over DeRosa, depending on what's done with DeRosa.  If he replaces Pie or Theriot it's likely a major upgrade.  If he super-subs it's back to marginal.

Blanton or Bedard, either would be a significant upgrade over Marquis, and if either kept Dempster out of the rotation I would have to call it major.

Seems to me that if Roberts were a shortstop he would be the obvious player to target and acquire, but since he's not then pitching is probably the way to go.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Dec 17, 2007 6:06 AM CST reply actions  

I picked Bedard
but would also consider Blanton before Roberts.

I like Roberts, don't get me wrong. I would like to see the rotation improved before getting another position player. A Roberts acquisition would convolute things with DeRo. With the Domer in right (please Jimbo, no experiments like with Fonz, keep the Domer in right), does DeRo go to SS with Roberts? That's a different diary discussion.

Getting Bedard or Blanton would help assure both Marquis and Dempster are not in the opening day rotation. Blanton may be a better/quicker move now that it appears Beane is full rebuild. A Bedard discussion can't be made w/o talking Roberts. Don't know if the O's would do that though its a move I advocated earlier.

Our grandparents used to say, "I hope the Cubs win the Series before I die". Now the teenagers are saying it.

by blackhawk24 on Dec 17, 2007 8:22 AM CST reply actions  

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