Geovany Soto expectations

by cubfanwill on Dec 23, 2007 5:06 PM CST

Hey everyone,

I'm curious. How does everyone feel about going into the season with a rookie catcher? Is this a wise decision? Was his breakout year in triple A a fluke, or was that a sign of things to come? I'd like to hear your opinions. Please share them.
On a side note, a saw a 2 minute trailer for Batman Dark Knight, it looks awesome!!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Soto is great

Soto's breakout year looks less fluky when you read one of the reasons attached to that breakout - he lost weight and gained bat speed. That bat speed is one of the reasons I am optimistic Soto can maintain his '07 step forward.

Last year a lot of projection systems crunched the numbers and suggested Chris Iannetta would be a break-out star. Scouts warned that his bat speed was slow. Iannetta flopped.

This year the projection systems and the scouts both like Soto - if he keeps the weight off.

All I am saying is give Pie a chance!

by DGU on Dec 23, 2007 5:01 PM CST reply actions

Do you have a link...

for the projection systems that supposedly like Soto? I asked in the past but no one had a link.

2007 Badger Football - 1-0

by Schwa on Dec 23, 2007 6:22 PM CST up reply actions

Sorry

The projection systems I know about aren't free. Bill James' come in his book and can be bought in excel format on-line. I don't have that link handy and you can google it without much trouble. Here's a link to Nate Silver's recent chat http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=399
where he talked about PECOTA's projection for Soto.

I can tell you this about James' #s - Soto comes in with the 6th highest OPS for catchers and 6th in OBP for catchers expected to get regular playing time.

I know there are free projections out there, but I don't know where to find them. If you find them, let me know what they say.

All I am saying is give Pie a chance!

by DGU on Dec 23, 2007 8:52 PM CST up reply actions

The Bill James Handbook numbers...

...are available free on Fangraphs under the player pages.

Better projection systems out there available for free include CHONE and Marcels. Those link to downloadable spreadsheets; I'm not at home so I don't have Excel handy.

The best freely-available projections are ZiPS, which aren't available for the Cubs yet. Here's a look at the ones for the Indians, for the curious.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Dec 23, 2007 9:53 PM CST up reply actions

Bill James loves Rich Hill again this year!

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4806&position=P

14-9, 3.50 ERA, .229 Opp. BA, 3.23 K/BB and 2.06 IP projection........

Sounds more like a solid #2, not a 3!

Super Mario Galaxy! Get it NOW!

by TheBeerBaron on Dec 24, 2007 8:07 AM CST up reply actions

Solid 2

But a great 3. Let's hope he's a 3!

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Dec 24, 2007 9:16 AM CST up reply actions

ABB (Anyone But Blanco)

I have high hopes for Soto, but honestly, if he went up to the plate without a bat in his hand, he'd have about the same chance as Henry Blanco does of getting on base.

If Soto-Pie-Theriot can put up decent performances, its a hell of a lineup.

by John916 on Dec 23, 2007 6:51 PM CST reply actions

That's why I'm a little concerned

about the catchers next year. Soto deserves a chance, and I hope he is a great player for many years to come. But he has a couple of months of big league experience. Blanco is a nice backup, but nothing more. If Soto fails, we're in big trouble.

by markleonette on Dec 23, 2007 7:32 PM CST up reply actions

Actually, after re-reading my previous post,

maybe "big trouble" was an overstatement. Hopefully there will still be enough offense to carry the team for a while. But I would feel better if we had a backup catcher who could play everyday if needed.

by markleonette on Dec 23, 2007 7:35 PM CST up reply actions

We were in big trouble

all last season with our catchers, and we still made the playoffs. Even a relatively poor year from Soto should better than what we got last season so I'm comfortable with him going in to the season. Let's hope he's taking it seriously and is as good as he can be.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Dec 24, 2007 9:18 AM CST up reply actions

A little Worried

I mean, after all he exploded out of nowhere last year in the minors- hopefully all of natural causes...but compared to the alternatives that were out there ( blanco, kendall, lo duca) hes more than suitable...if he could get 15 HRs, Id be stoked.

Back to Back to Back AAU National Champion

by bren on Dec 23, 2007 8:16 PM CST reply actions

You're exactly right

Who else were we going to get? Soto is being projected as a C up there in the higher echelons of Cs. How can you turn your back on that for the security of what - Jason Kendall?

All I am saying is give Pie a chance!

by DGU on Dec 23, 2007 8:54 PM CST up reply actions

"hopefully all of natural causes"

I keep reading these whispers about Soto, implying that there's something suspicious about his 2007; some don't even whisper and ask out loud if he was on PEDs.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the PED testing program in the minor leagues much stricter than MLB - and has been since 2003 or so?

I'm not 100% on this - but if true, then people really ought to not stoop to this kind of idle speculation in a case like this.

Why does everybody stand up and sing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" when they're already there? ~Larry Anderson

by JohnM on Dec 25, 2007 4:19 PM CST up reply actions

u know what

i loved batman begins, and now i cannot wait for the dark knight to come out, now he has a supervillian!

If dogs took over the world and chose a king, I hope they don't just go by size, because there are some Chihuahuas with some good ideas.

by deepthoughtsbyjackhandey on Dec 23, 2007 8:32 PM CST reply actions

I think he

will be great.

"But being a nasty hateful person she can't help herself." KOW

by sue369 on Dec 23, 2007 8:58 PM CST reply actions

bottom line

We can assume he can't be worse than what the Cubs got offensively from catcher last year.

We can hope for far more.

by elgato on Dec 23, 2007 9:09 PM CST reply actions

I love Soto's approach

he really seems to have his head screwed on straight. The big thing for him will be how he adjusts when the league gets a solid scouting report on him (which they didn't in 07). If he gets throught that period ok, he should be in good shape.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Dec 24, 2007 11:39 AM CST reply actions

Soto numbers and Soriano @ 2b

He'll be better than anyone we've had in a while, but he's not going to hit .300, Considering he's going to be hitting 7th most games, I see him coming up with a line that looks a lot like the good Barrett year:

.280avg .330obp .420obp 15hr 50r 65rbi

I'd totally take that.

On another note:
Why are we looking so hard to trade for a second baseman when we have a former All-Star second baseman playing left? Are we saying that is easier to find left handed power in the infield?

Wilkerson and Luis Gonzales are available, probably cheap and for one year and could form an easy platoon with Murton in left. Between Theriot, DeRosa and Cedeno we a have at least one MLB shortstop.

by nuflattop on Dec 24, 2007 11:44 AM CST reply actions

Thats interesting....

I remember Soriano played second for maybe an inning once this year. Its hard to remember now, but i dont think he exactly had Alomar-esque glove work over at second, but he couldnt have been that bad, he didnt hurt the yankees any.

If i remember correctly, the only reason the Nats moved him to left field was b/c they had Vidro at second that year, who had been an allstar, but since it was the NL, they had nowhere else to put him b/c NIck johnson was at first, but Soriano did lead the league in assists from OF that year.

Whats really ironic is that he didnt want to leave second b/c he thought hed be more valuable as a secondbaseman in the free agent market that year...ha.

Id really like Brian Roberts, but I dont see second base as an area of need, which is really frustrating b/c they could use Roberts bat and baserunning in the lineup-maybe they should use some of the minor league assets to get a SS instead,but whos available really?

Back to Back to Back AAU National Champion

by bren on Dec 24, 2007 1:31 PM CST up reply actions

2B

Soriano absoltely SUCKS at 2B. He has a great outfield throwing arm, hes athletic and can run, he is not a natural OF but makes up for it with all his other tools.

There is a guy on this site with the SIG that says the OF of Sori,Pie, FUKU is going to be great and I think/hope it will.

My prediction, if the OF is that next year, is that the Cubs will overwhlemly lead the MLB in OF assists

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Dec 25, 2007 7:21 PM CST up reply actions

Soto will be fine

if he isn't overworked. The key will be who is backing him up. As a first year player I hope they don't start Soto more than 120 times. We'll find out in the Spring just how healthy Blanco is.

by Nibbles on Dec 25, 2007 10:36 AM CST reply actions