2007 Community Projections: Michael Barrett

by Al Yellon on Feb 19, 2007 8:11 AM CST in Community Projections

So!

I'm sure you were wondering, after 100 days, what we were going to do so you'd have an everyday post until games actually start.

This is something I did last year, and it was well-received, and so I'm going to do it again, only this time make it a little more organized.

I'm going to post projection threads for: the eight likely position player starters, the five (maybe six) starting rotation candidates, and two or three significant relievers (likely Dempster, Wood and Howry). That's fifteen or sixteen players; if any of you think I've left anyone important off, let me know.

For hitters, starting with Michael Barrett, let's project:

AB, R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB, SO, AVG, OBA, SLG

I will also need a volunteer or volunteers to tabulate all the data for a final projection for each player.

I'll help you out on one category for Michael this year: I predict the number of intrascrotal hematomas he will have in 2007 will be zero.

Have fun with this!

Michael Barrett's career stats at baseball-reference.com

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Comments

Ouch

You had to bring THAT up again. Predictions later, I have to sit down.

Spendry!!!

by mrcubsfan on Feb 19, 2007 8:30 AM CST reply actions

Oh, all right, then.

I'll start:

AB 450
R 60
H 136
2B 30
3B 1
HR 16
RBI 70
BB 30
SO 50
Line: .302/.346/.471

Note: when you are calculating the line, make sure it matches the number of doubles/triples/HR/walks you select (you'll have to do a bit of simple math for this)

I Support Julie!

by Al Yellon on Feb 19, 2007 8:38 AM CST reply actions

Al...

I can tabulate and compile the data if you'd like...

by ar_hawkins on Feb 19, 2007 9:01 AM CST up reply actions

Thanks...

... I received an offer from BCB reader Imtrejo (who did this last year).

If the number of posts gets too large, sure, you could help out, or the two of you could split them up.

I asked Imtrejo to post about that here, so you two can work it out.

Thanks!

I Support Julie!

by Al Yellon on Feb 19, 2007 9:04 AM CST up reply actions

Sounds good

Imtrejo, if you need help just let me know.

Here's my guess:

AB 442
R 55
H 130
2B 32
3B 3
HR 18
RBI 67
BB 36
SO 45
Line: .294/.376/.502

by ar_hawkins on Feb 19, 2007 9:19 AM CST up reply actions

Help.

If these are going to be done on a daily basis, there may be a day or two that I can't get to it right away. If so, I'll let you know.

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 19, 2007 9:29 AM CST up reply actions

Sounds good

Just shoot me an email.

ar_hawkins@yahoo.com

by ar_hawkins on Feb 19, 2007 11:15 AM CST up reply actions

I'll guess

he'll do about the same as last season, but with less time off.

420 AB,
60 R,
128 H,
29 2B,
2 3B,
18 HR,
62 RBI,
37 BB,
47 SO,
0.305 AVG,
0.400 OBA,
0.512 SLG
(0.912 OPS)

Jason

by jcg996 on Feb 19, 2007 8:40 AM CST reply actions

Oops

Nice math error by me - no, I wasn't predicting Michael would get hit by a ridiculous number of pitches. I'll change that to

0.365 OBA
(0.877 OPS)

by jcg996 on Feb 19, 2007 8:51 AM CST up reply actions

Don't forget...

..to factor in how his suspension days will affect total ABs this season.

You know, for when the WhiteSox come to town in May and Pierzynski catches another right cross for gettin' fresh.

Chicks dig the long ball

by Will23 on Feb 19, 2007 9:03 AM CST up reply actions

Projection

AB 472
R 64
H 134
2B 28
3B 2
HR 14
RBI 67
BB 34
SO 64
Line: .289/.343/.464

"Losing is my only fear"

by Unique on Feb 19, 2007 8:45 AM CST reply actions

PDP (Pipe Dream Projection)

AB 446
R 69
H 140
2B 33
3B 3
HR 24
RBI 74
BB 33
SO 42
Line: .310/.350/.486

UZI

"I don't do drugs. I am drugs." - Salvador Dali

by Ozgreeder on Feb 19, 2007 8:50 AM CST reply actions

Your line...

is actually closer to

.314
.370
.563
.933

by tyger1147 on Feb 19, 2007 9:29 AM CST up reply actions

I think

by tyger1147 on Feb 19, 2007 9:30 AM CST up reply actions

Actually your both wrong

the OBP is .388

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 19, 2007 9:34 AM CST up reply actions

How so?

by tyger1147 on Feb 19, 2007 9:43 AM CST up reply actions

On Base Percentage

Walks + Hits / At Bats

You can also figure a few errors and Hit by Pitch but that may be going a bit to far.

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 19, 2007 9:46 AM CST up reply actions

Actually...

... it's Walks + Hits / AtBats + Walks

Try it again.

I Support Julie!

by Al Yellon on Feb 19, 2007 9:47 AM CST up reply actions

I just noticed this as I hit 'Post'

Damn, I'm ruining my own credibility!

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 19, 2007 9:50 AM CST up reply actions

I'm shitty...

at math. Can you tell? Either that, or I'm extremely lazy and didn't feel like doing it.

UZI

"I don't do drugs. I am drugs." - Salvador Dali

by Ozgreeder on Feb 19, 2007 10:25 AM CST up reply actions

Oh wait...

You just added (walks + hits) divided by official AB's. That's not OBP.

by tyger1147 on Feb 19, 2007 9:47 AM CST up reply actions

Barrett

2007 Projections (what would have been rank in MLB among "regular" catchers last year-depending what you call David Ross)
AB = 425 (15th)
R = 55
H = 125
2B = 30
3B = 2
HR = 15 (13th)
RBI = 65 (t-9th)
BB = 42
SO = 45
AVG = .294 (10th)
OBA = .370 (5th)
SLG = .480 (6th)
OPS = .850 (5th)

99% lurker

by tyger1147 on Feb 19, 2007 9:00 AM CST reply actions

I'd love to see projections of Wuertz

as think he's prime for a breakout year (me) and others think he can't pitch on back-to-back days (Al!), and perhaps just as many don't even think he'll make the roster.

99% lurker

by tyger1147 on Feb 19, 2007 9:03 AM CST up reply actions

I'll keep him in mind.

Thanks!

I Support Julie!

by Al Yellon on Feb 19, 2007 9:05 AM CST up reply actions

Change Runs Scored

from 55 to 62

by tyger1147 on Feb 19, 2007 9:40 AM CST up reply actions

Here's mine

Barrett:
AB - 420
R - 53
H - 122
2B - 30
3B - 1
HR - 21
RBI - 70
BB - 45
SO - 47
Line - .291/.359/.516

by pageian on Feb 19, 2007 9:10 AM CST reply actions

The line I was going to post...

...is so similar to this one that I'm just going to go with it. So, for whoever calculates, just enter this one twice please.

I support Julie! :)

by gravedigger on Feb 19, 2007 9:23 AM CST up reply actions

Projection

AB 450
R 65
H 133
2B 27
3B 2
HR 14
RBI 58
BB 40
SO 54
AVE. .296
OBP. .384
SLG% .431

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 19, 2007 9:11 AM CST reply actions

I'm on board............

.........with this projection. Double it up!

by tville on Feb 19, 2007 10:45 AM CST up reply actions

Outfield and 2nd Base

I'm curious as to what you're going to do with those positions. Maybe leave DeRosa, Jones, Murton, Floyd off until after the pitchers so we at least know what Piniella and/or Hendry are thinking.

by tyger1147 on Feb 19, 2007 9:33 AM CST reply actions

Or maybe do all of them...

... and you can figure out how you want to project them.

If I don't do them till after Piniella decides, I could be waiting till the end of March.

I Support Julie!

by Al Yellon on Feb 19, 2007 9:35 AM CST up reply actions

True...

and I didn't necessarily mean until he decides, but at least until we had a better idea. But you're right. I'd rather see them all up and see what we all come up with as far as playing time instead of just 8 guys up there, ya know?

by tyger1147 on Feb 19, 2007 9:42 AM CST up reply actions

Here we go...

AB 469
R 64
H 138
2B 29
3B 6
HR 17
RBI 58
BB 38
SO 44
AVG .295
OBP .371
SLG .547

I think it would be beneficial to all of us if you posted each players stats from last year from here on out. That would make it alot easier. Plus Al, you put OBA on accident rather than OBP just incase you didnt notice, no big deal though.

Soriano+ DLee + Ramirez = 1 Damn Good Meat of the Lineup AND Zambrano + LILLY = Playoff Bound Cubbies!!!

by LilLPLancer23 on Feb 19, 2007 9:59 AM CST reply actions

I'll post...

... a link to their baseball-reference stats.

OBA is the same thing as OBP (On-Base Average; On-Base Percentage, just a different term).

I Support Julie!

by Al Yellon on Feb 19, 2007 10:13 AM CST up reply actions

I don't know what your "compilation"

is for, but a lot of the OBP's and SLG's are going to be mathematically inaccurate from their own stats given. So maybe those should be left out. Like Lil' prancers for example.

by tyger1147 on Feb 19, 2007 10:18 AM CST up reply actions

This is why...

... I asked, and will ask again, that anyone who posts a projection, please do the math to make sure your OBA and SLG are correct.

In any case, whoever is compiling will add it up right, I hope.

I Support Julie!

by Al Yellon on Feb 19, 2007 10:24 AM CST up reply actions

A number of people are way off...

...with the SLG.

However, OBP usually includes HBP, so I wouldn't be too strict about that one matching the other stats projected.

Dave Geiser

by dvdmgsr on Feb 19, 2007 11:03 AM CST up reply actions

Well...

to be technical, OBP also sometimes (or all the time) includes sac flies in the bottom part, which would "negate" a few HBP's.

Not to mention, the one the that I brought up, Barrett would have to be hit by 19 pitches without a Sac Fly to make it accurate.

At best, any OBP should probably be (guessing) 5-15 points higher than (Hits + BB) / (AB + BB). Anything else and it's getting tricky.

by tyger1147 on Feb 19, 2007 11:58 AM CST up reply actions

AAACK!!!

This isn't supposed to be technical, it's supposed to be fun.

If I wanted to be technical, I would have had you include all kinds of "advanced" stats. But what fun would that be?

Just assume, for the purposes of these projections, that we are only including hits and walks. That really ought to be close enough for this purpose.

I Support Julie!

by Al Yellon on Feb 19, 2007 12:41 PM CST up reply actions

I know... I know...

I was just giving someone else a hard time. Sorry.

by tyger1147 on Feb 19, 2007 1:16 PM CST up reply actions

Julie eye roll

Yeah, because there's nothing fun about stats.

I support Julie! :)

by gravedigger on Feb 19, 2007 7:30 PM CST up reply actions

OK, smartypants.

Is there?

I Support Julie!

by Al Yellon on Feb 19, 2007 7:33 PM CST up reply actions

Yes

"Looking for good signs is a good sign of delusion." - Me

by gravedigger on Feb 19, 2007 7:44 PM CST up reply actions

Show me some.

n/t

I Support Julie!

by Al Yellon on Feb 19, 2007 8:06 PM CST up reply actions

I dont know

I guess I get some satisfaction and enjoyment out of seeing a clearer picture through advanced stats.

More fun than RBI.

"Looking for good signs is a good sign of delusion." - Me

by gravedigger on Feb 19, 2007 8:09 PM CST up reply actions

I think

Barret will crack 20 HR this year if he stays healthy, he would have last year imo

"Just say Smith or Jones again, it dont matter, none of this matters"

by ksucubbie on Feb 19, 2007 10:01 AM CST reply actions

Barret

AB 468
R 64
H 145
2B 22
3B 1
HR 20
RBI 72
BB 40
SO 50
AVG .309
OBA .364
SLG .581

by tcjhawk on Feb 19, 2007 10:31 AM CST reply actions

Projection

345 AB,
45 R,
90 H,
12 2B,
0 3B,
7 HR,
32 RBI,
15 BB,
60 SO,
.261 AVG,
.292 OBA,
.357 SLG
(0.649 OPS)

by frustratedfan on Feb 19, 2007 10:55 AM CST reply actions

Barrett Projection

475 AB
68 R
139 H
28 2B
1 3B
18 HR
67 RBI
44 BB
70 K
.292 BA
.354 OBA
.469 SLG
.823 OPS

Don't ask me why I'm being so optimistic.

by dvdmgsr on Feb 19, 2007 11:00 AM CST reply actions

Hmm...

It seems mine are right on with PECOTA. I guess I'm not necessarily being over-the-top.

by dvdmgsr on Feb 19, 2007 11:05 AM CST up reply actions

130-135 Games is key

I think it's key that we have hit bat in the lineup for at least 130 games like '04 and '05. Last year he was only in 107 due to injury and suspension. With the guys ahead of him in this lineup, I don't think 20 homers and 70-75 RBI is unrealistic if he stays healthy. If only he had Henry Blanco's defensive abilities and throwing arm. He's gotten better, but he is still more of an offensive catcher, which is certainly not a bad thing.

I'd predict a line of .285/18/75, with an OBP of about .350 and SLG Pct. of about .500.

"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Feb 19, 2007 11:04 AM CST reply actions

Do you think that

Barrett can make even more improvement with his defensive ability and throwing? Somtimes it seems that he is adequate, and then sometimes it seems like he's really hurting us back there defensively.

I just feel so much better when I'm drinking beer.

by deadcatbounce on Feb 19, 2007 5:26 PM CST up reply actions

my projections

AB = 450
R = 70
H = 122
2B = 28
3B = 0
HR = 19
RBI = 72
BB = 38
SO = 50
AVG = .271
OBA = .356
SLG = .460
OPS = .816

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 19, 2007 11:05 AM CST reply actions

I don't know if I did OPS right.

THE FONZ HAS ARRIVED!

by amaru on Feb 19, 2007 11:44 AM CST reply actions

I hope that you are correct

And if Michael does hit like that, he'll have waaaaaay more than 68 RBI's

by Ihatethecards on Feb 19, 2007 11:56 AM CST up reply actions

Come on Barrett....

AB 415
R 58
H 128
2B 21
3B 3
HR 18
RBI 78
BB 35
SO 55
Line: .308/.362/.503

At least we didn't sign Batista...

by stelmodad on Feb 19, 2007 1:58 PM CST reply actions

Line

424 AB,
39 R,
125 H,
27 2B,
2 3B,
16 HR,
55 RBI,
55 BB,
75 SO,
.295 AVG,
.345 OBA,
.481 SLG
(826 OPS)

According to the Chicago Tribune: "The Oakland A's are 32-0 when they have scored more runs than their opponents.

by Carlos on Feb 19, 2007 3:54 PM CST reply actions

underrated

465 AB
71 R
141 H
27 2B
2 3B
20 HR
75 RBI
64 BB
51 K
.289
.371 OBP
.512 SLG
.831 OPS

he'll see even better pitchers with Soriano and a healthy Lee.

by CarolinaCub15 on Feb 19, 2007 5:46 PM CST reply actions

On barrett

Maybe not now but if he has another good year on O and improves some on D would you try and sign him at the ASB?

2007 THE YEAR OF THE BEAR. Bears didn't quite do it. Cubs to finish job.

by kerrysotherwife on Feb 19, 2007 7:47 PM CST reply actions

Barrett Prediction

Hello all. It's been since ancient times that I've posted but I lurk here nearly every day. I go back all the way to the USENET days. Yikes.

432 AB
55 R
122 H
26 2B
2 3B
17 HR
58 RBI
36 BB
62 SO
.282/.470/.336

There's always next year.

by BJ Simpson on Feb 19, 2007 9:00 PM CST reply actions

Barrett Projecton

422 AB'S
52 R
124 H
34 2B
2 3B
18 HR
74 RBI
45 BB
59 SO
.294/.351/.521

"The fat lady can't sing if it's not over!"- Rube Baker

by JD McCubbie on Feb 19, 2007 11:13 PM CST reply actions

To those...

... who offered to total these up, I think we'll do it differently this year. Last year I waited a couple of days and then posted the community total on the front page.

What I'll do this year is, after a couple days I'll close off comments in the thread. Then you can total them -- email the total to me and once the series is done, I'll make a post with everyone's projections for all the players at once.

I Support Julie!

by Al Yellon on Feb 20, 2007 4:05 AM CST reply actions