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Comments on baseball news of the week

I found myself reading through the latest in baseball updates today, and was left with some
general musings....

With Wade Miller reasonably healthy, and 37-16 against the NL Central, why does every journalist
with an editor pencil in Prior as the key to the Cubs season?

Why is Ronnie Belliard still on the market? And is there anyone who wouldn't dump Cedeno in a minute,and use Ronnie as a backup?

I keep getting the feeling that Peter McGowan would like to sign Bonds to keep the faithful on board this year, but would love to see Barry leave once the season actually starts? Is this just my imagination?

The DirectTV fiasco is reason 4,100,279 why people hate MBAs. Deal looks great on paper,
and in reality makes no one happy.

Todd Helton to the Red Sox? Brilliant. Todd Helton to the Angels? Great deal for everyone. Except maybe Shea.

Finally listened to the Cliff Floyd conference call. Ouch. Something tells me Hendry blinks before Opening Day and deals Jacque Jones.  For not a lot.

I've looked over the White Sox deals three times, and I still can't figure out whether Kenny Williams is hiding a request to cut payroll, or is just an evil genius. I still can't see better than 3rd place for them either way

Anyone have any thoughts?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation, Bleed Cubbie Blue, or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief. FanPost opinions are, however, valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Your implication is...
... that Floyd will wind up starting in RF. That scares me to death. He has played 79 career games in right field, most of them in 2002 for the Marlins.

Soriano's going to have to cover the entire OF if that's the starting three. But they will hit.

"[BCB] is much better than... well, everything." -- gravedigger, January 21, 2007

by Al on Feb 2, 2007 4:53 PM CST   0 recs

I don't like it either...
 But man. He sounded fresh, excitable, and ready to play. And swore he was healthy.

by Damen Jackson on Feb 2, 2007 4:54 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

All we can do...
... is wait and see in spring training if he's telling the truth.

If the guy IS healthy, as he was in 2005, he is a great hitter. But that was the first year since 1998 that he played in 150 or more games, and in only one other year (2001) did he bat over 500 times.

The guy's a top-tier hitter if he's healthy. Problem is, he almost never is. Sort of a poor man's Ellis Burks.

"[BCB] is much better than... well, everything." -- gravedigger, January 21, 2007

by Al on Feb 2, 2007 4:58 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Moving on..
 Thoughts on Kenny and his pitching deals?

by Damen Jackson on Feb 2, 2007 5:01 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

proof that he has never been the great GM...
...many in baseball have painted him as.
PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Feb 2, 2007 5:35 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Not that...
... I want to defend a White Sox management type, but the guy has often succeeded with his unconventional moves.

Only time will tell if his offseason moves are dumb, or genius.

"[BCB] is much better than... well, everything." -- gravedigger, January 21, 2007

by Al on Feb 2, 2007 5:58 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

agreed it's tough to argue with a WS ring...
...but even still...

Looking at their roster from 2004 to 2005.

Carlos Lee for Podsednik and Vizcaino was not a great move at all. Podsednik and Vizcaino combined did not post as high a VORP as Lee did that season. Podsednik represented a 198 point drop in OPS, something you can't make up with the oh so overrated stolen base and marginal defensive upgrade.

In fact, almost every position from 2004 to 2005 saw a dip in OPS.

The White Sox picked up guys off the scrap heap, like A.J. Pierzynski, who assholed his way out of two franchises in San Francisco and Minnesota. Jermaine Dye was picked up with his signficant injury history and mostly because his price fit a team paring back their payroll. The pen was cobbled out of spare parts and castaways (spare parts and castaways who, after playing out of their minds for one year, proceeded to shit the bed anew in 2006).

And it worked. What can one say? Sometimes chance and necessity makes geniuses of us all. How does the old saying go, I'd rather be lucky than good? But I bet a million bucks that if KW ever got honest with anybody, he'd admit that he never really thought they'd win the WS going into that year.

And as mentioned briefly above, what saved the White Sox that year was their pitching as Garland, Garcia, Contreras, all had seasons above and beyond what they were known for, and their bullpen saw career years out of Hermanson, Cotts, Politte, with Bobby Jenks cming out of nowhere.

That has not been duplicated since and many of these very same guys leading the way to the WS in 2005, were big reasons why the White Sox did not repeat in 2006, and didn't even make the postseason.

That's what we call a fluke. That was what the 2005 Chicago White Sox were.

Don't get me wrong. They were the champs that year. And nobody can take that from them and I'd LOVE to be the next fluke team to win the WS, but that's what they were that year. They were not this team borne in the mind of a genius. They were a team constructed with cutbacks in the White Sox payroll, a team constructed of many many gambles that just so happened to work out that year. Add that to an inordinate amount of one run games won, and facing a team in the Series constructed almost identically to them in the 2005 Houston Astros, another team that couldn't hit worth a shit, and you have a path that seemed almost predestined.

As crazy as it sounds, sometimes it's just meant to be.  

But that doesn't make Kenny Williams a great GM.

Up until that magical 2005 season, KW GM'd Sox teams had the following records:

83-79
81-81
86-76
83-79

Not terrible, not great. Mostly...meh.  

So I'd take that "mostly succeeded" tag away from him Al and look at his record a bit more closely. One year of an exorbitant amount of luck surrounded by quite a bit of meh. Sure, from a Cub standpoint, the Sox meh is far better than our ick, but that still doesn't make Kenny Williams a great GM.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Feb 3, 2007 3:30 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

KW's deals
The Podsednik for Carlos Lee trade looks awful when seen in isolation.

You point out further down in your post that he signed Dye. The money he saved in dumping Carlos Lee allowed him to sign Tadahito Iguchi, Dye.

The fact that the team was constructed "with cutbacks in payroll" is what makes the construction job impressive.

As for his track record, GMs in some ways are like players too. They are not static and unchanging. They CAN improve, or deteriorate. They CAN learn from their mistakes.

Even the BPro guys, who've been very strong critics of Kenny Williams are willing to admit that he has improved to the point where he is now a very good GM.

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh on Feb 3, 2007 7:08 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

Well if the Bpro guys say it, then it must be true
...after all, when have the Bpro guys ever got anything wrong?

Sorry, not buying it.

KW is no more a great GM than Jim Hendry would have been had the Cubs not flubbed away 2003 and  gone on to win the whole thing that year.  

Again, I don't know why people are bristling at what I'm saying. I'm not saying he's not any good, merely decent, so-so, I'm saying he's solid. He's a good GM. But not one of the elite. Not one of the greats in the game. And certainly not worthy of these hushed, reverent tones that people speak in when they mention his name.  

Perhaps that changes over the next couple of years and perhaps it will if Gio Gonzalez, Danks, and Gavin Floyd come through and the White Sox return to the postseason, but as of right now, I'm not buying it.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Feb 3, 2007 1:08 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

The funny thing...
is everyone commenting on these deals is missing the big screw up.  His deal last year to land Vazquez cost him arguably one of the best (if not the best) CF prospect in Chris Young.

I believe that KW has the right idea.  Pitching wins championships.  The WS will never spend sick money.  If they land two plus starters out of these trades, they come out ahead. As much as I wanted Garcia here, he looked slower last year.  McCarthy for Danks, IMHO could turn out to be a steal.  The kid to watch out for is Gonzales.  He is special.

It is good to be home again!!!!!!

by timeforachange on Feb 2, 2007 9:08 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

I don't know how you come up with...
McCarthy for Danks as a steal. Maybe I'm missing something.

Right now I'd say KW will be VERY lucky if he breaks even on this deal.

Based on minor league numbers, McCarthy outperformed and outpitched Danks at every level, and compiled a 3.39 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and a better K rate in more innings over fewer starts than Danks.

Perhaps there's something the scouts are seeing that hasn't translated to the stat column yep, but as of right now, this move appears to be a mystifying step back and at best a lateral move. My only guess is that McCarthy's stock had fallen precipitously in the eyes of the Sox organization for whatever reason, and they decided to trade him for a young pitcher with similar attributes and one or two controllable years.  

So time will tell, but for now anyway, I can't give the White Sox any kind of edge in that deal at all. At best it looks like a wash, performance speaking.

Anyhow, all this ink I'm employing makes it seem like I'm saying Williams's is terrible and that's not true. Kenny Williams is a solid GM. He's made some interesting moves this offseason trying to anticipate the future and he certainly isn't timid. But he's no genius. And he's not one of the elite.

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Feb 3, 2007 3:47 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

Key word...
is could.  The Danks deal could be a steal.  

As for McCarthy, my WS friends say he lost the team with his bitching last year about being in the pen.  They also state that his fast ball is flat and that teams started catching on to him.  Only time will tell.  

It is good to be home again!!!!!!

by timeforachange on Feb 3, 2007 7:37 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

meh...
...but it also might be a disaster.

Danks has given up more home runs than McCarthy in fewer innings during his minor league career so far.

I just think it's at best a lateral move. And while Ameriquest should be tough on Brandon in terms of keeping the ball in the yard, it's not as though the Cell is all that pitcher friendly either, and looking at the minor league numbers, I'm just not seeing how Danks projects better than McCarthy at this point. Whatever it is he's got, it hasn't shown itself on the stat sheet yet.

But as you said, time will tell. Chances are neither pitcher turns out to be all that great and we're simply wasting time here.

 

PINIELLA!

by theprognosticator on Feb 3, 2007 1:18 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

that flat fastball
may be one reason why his hr/fly balls was way up last year.  McCarthy doesnt look like anything special, for sure in the short run i have no idea what kenny was doing (i hate it when people refer to him as "KW" anyone else agree?), but Danks could be better.

I love your above points Prog, I desperately wanted to start discussing the poor/lucky moves kenny has made but gosh, I could not have come close to putting it any better than you did.

The above point about the Chris Young trade is the real icing on the cake.  I just think it is absolutely HYSTERICAL that kenny trades away his money center field prospect, for a pitcher who did the team no good, especially when he is paying that pitcher 12 mil...and especially when center field was such a problem position for them last year.  Then one has to think about the Thome deal and how people were praising kenny for it, ha turns out Frank Thomas was a steal and had just as much production for the A's, and to think if kenny didnt blow his relationship wiht thomas he could have had just as good of a DH PLUS kept rowand.  Kenny is an average GM who really ruined any chances of the sox going to the playoffs last year with those two trades.

DON'T TRADE PIE!

by kylejo on Feb 3, 2007 6:56 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

While...
... I agree with you about the two deals you mention, they weren't the reason the Sox missed the playoffs.

They made the playoffs in 2005 because they had outstanding starting pitching.

In 2006 they didn't. It really is as simple as that.

"[BCB] is much better than... well, everything." -- gravedigger, January 21, 2007

by Al on Feb 3, 2007 7:52 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

this is true
in the post season Garcia, Buehrele, Contreras etc.. went well into the 8th inning, even a few CG's. Pitching wins championships.
TRAMMELL!

by Faith plus 1 on Feb 3, 2007 7:57 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

quiet you
scoring runs never helps.
TRAMMELL!

by Faith plus 1 on Feb 3, 2007 8:02 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

True
There's nothing quite like a zero to negative one win.
PTBNL!

by gravedigger on Feb 3, 2007 8:11 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

LOL
 
TRAMMELL!

by Faith plus 1 on Feb 3, 2007 8:30 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Lt. Capt. Killjoy is that you?
 
TRAMMELL!

by Faith plus 1 on Feb 3, 2007 11:33 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

It takes talent
to score -1 runs.
MCDONOUGH!

by secdelahc on Feb 3, 2007 11:44 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

thank you!
 
TRAMMELL!

by Faith plus 1 on Feb 3, 2007 11:47 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

The 2006 Chicago Cubs
Seemed to have a hard time doing it consistently.
PTBNL!

by gravedigger on Feb 3, 2007 11:57 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

LOL!
BURN!
TRAMMELL!

by Faith plus 1 on Feb 3, 2007 11:58 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

They scored more than 162 runs..
the only time they couldn't score was when a lefty was on the hill. Or a good righty.. or a journeyman.. or some Puerto Rican guy.

or when Z wasn't pitching... or

when Maddux was pitching..

or when the sky was blue..

or when the sky had large clouds of gas.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 4, 2007 12:36 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

true
but i dont think you can say that having rowand in center and mccarthy in the rotation instead of vasquez wouldnt have helped.  As over-hyped as mccarthy may be, he would most likely have posted an era lower than 4.89.  Plus they would have saved around 20 mil in the vazquez and thome contracts combined.
DON'T TRADE PIE!

by kylejo on Feb 3, 2007 8:13 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

That is what I have been thinking.
Garcia was probably their best pitcher in the second half where he was getting close to no hitters.

The Sox have the offensive talent to win now and KW seems to be building for the future. They needed to upgrade their pitching this offseason and so far they have downgraded the pitching which makes me very happy.

I can't believe Al put Rick Wilkins in the top 100 cubs.

by diehardmark on Feb 5, 2007 7:56 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

I agree...
... with the wade miller comment.  He didn't look half bad when he came back at the end of last season.  I thought his pitches had some good movement to them, especially for someone coming off of surgery.
"Winning is the greatest marketing idea of all time." --Cubs President John McDonough

by cubbieblue on Feb 2, 2007 5:39 PM CST   0 recs

Agreed.
If he could come back to, say, even his 2004 form (14-13, 4.13 in 33 starts), he's an asset to the rotation.

He is only 30 years old, a few months younger than Ted Lilly, who at this juncture will be the oldest member of the rotation (turned 31 last month).

"[BCB] is much better than... well, everything." -- gravedigger, January 21, 2007

by Al on Feb 2, 2007 6:00 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

There's this, as printed from Truth and Rumors....
 "Mark Prior will enter spring as the favorite for the fifth starter's job, competing with Wade Miller and perhaps Sean Marshall, whom the Cubs prefer to start out at Triple-A Iowa. If Miller wins the job, there's no assurance Prior will go to the bullpen. He could be sent to Iowa to start the season, even if he's healthy.
-- Chicago Tribune"

That hurts to read in print. Not because of Prior but because it certainly locks in the Z-Lilly-Hill-Marquis rotation. The worst fear of that, of course is that 2 of the 3 mentioned can probably have a better spring training than Marquis and one will be rewarded with a trip to Iowa. If Prior is truly healthy, it could be all 3 that look better than Marquis. THEN what do they do?

Ow, my head hurts.

Besides the obvious - Go Irish.

by PopeFlick on Feb 2, 2007 6:26 PM CST   0 recs

i heard the same thing on XM today
And thought that it would be weird to have Prior in AAA if he has a decent spring.  
MCDONOUGH!

by secdelahc on Feb 2, 2007 9:40 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

It's really a nice problem to have
So if Miller and Prior are lights out in spring training you put Marquis in long relief. Then since the Cubs pithers are injury prone you can move Marquis into the 5 slot if one of them go down. At least it's a much better place to be then where we were last year at this time. It makes me warm and fuzzy on a cold day.
I can't believe Al put Rick Wilkins in the top 100 cubs.

by diehardmark on Feb 5, 2007 8:04 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

Pennies for my Thoughts..
Which can actually mean five cents because the mint is considering doing away with the penny.. anyhow here goes nothing.

First off, Mark Prior.. Every year I do this, and every year I end up like the fat girl waiting for her prom date...

Mark Prior will have a great 2007.

14 Wins... 3.85 ERA.. and 26 Starts.  

I really hope the best for Prior he's my favorite Cub.

Ronnie Belliard:

No, I'll pass. Why pay 4 mil for Ronnie Cedeno, I mean Belliard when you can have him for .350 k..

Todd Helton:

He isn't going anywhere, There is no team in baseball that wants his ridiculous contract..  See the Alfonso Soriano contract in 4 years... The Cubs are screwed.

Kenny Williams:

He made two phenomenal trades, I'm not sure about the Freddy Garcia trade so much but John Danks is the real mo'fo'in deal.

Danks will make Brendon McCarthy look like Jaime Navarro.  Danks has two + pitches and a developing third pitch.  He throws 4 pitches total.  Danks made that entire deal worth it.. Consider they also got a guy who could end up as a back of the pen type in Nick Masset (throws 98, hello Kyle Farnsworth).  And that deal was well worth giving up on someone who although very hyped, hasn't ever shown he can be effective.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 2, 2007 6:55 PM CST   0 recs

Appreciate the thoughts...
 It might actually be a dime though.

 Love for Prior to have a great year. But at best, he's relegated to 5th starter, so I can't help but cringe when I hear these guys say we're living and dying with Prior and Wood again.

 Todd Helton. Listen man. If Colorado wants to eat 45-50% of that deal, he'll go somewhere. Angels. Red Sox. Hell, I love him in Houston. It's Thome all over again. Deal him and be done with it.

Ronnie Belliard at 1.5 million on a 1 year deal? Fine. I think we're past talking about a 4 million per deal though. Period.

by Damen Jackson on Feb 2, 2007 9:40 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

To be honest
I really don't see the Rox eating all of that salary to deal with him.. It's like the Manny situation.. the BoSox wish to not eat any salary..

I really doubt Belliard will take a 1.5 mil deal and he DOES NOT fit the type of profile the Cubs need to be looking for.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 2, 2007 9:41 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

I'm actually chuckling..
 right now because you're right, but he really is the type they do sign. You should check the parameters of the Red Sox deal again though. The Rockies were prepared to eat 45 million or so.

by Damen Jackson on Feb 2, 2007 9:45 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

prior
first time i,ve ever heard of prior working out in the offseason.hopefully that helps.im rooting for prior but i think it will be the same soap opera as always.working out with towels,cubs lying about his health,etc.etc.etc.this could be his swansong with the cubs as well as wood,s. let,s hope not.

by NOMAR on Feb 3, 2007 4:05 AM CST   0 recs

Belliard is part of an extortion thing
and that might be why he isn't signed, according to MLB.com atleast.

by DTJchris on Feb 3, 2007 3:56 PM CST   0 recs

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