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Simulation Madness: Cubs in the Finals

The Cubs have advanced to the finals in the Simulation Madness tournament.  A tournament using my baseball simulator along with ZIPS player projections to determine the outcome of a set of seven game series.  The tournament format invites every MLB team and is similiar to the NCAA basketball tournament format.  The tournament is just for fun of course.
http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/

Here is a recap of the series vs the Mets in the semi finals, just completed.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets

Game 1: Carlos Zambrano vs Tom Glavine
The Mets jumped out to an early 2nd inning 3-0 lead on home runs by
Jose Reyes and Jose Valentin.  Cliff Floyd hit a 3rd inning home run for
the Cubs, making the score 3-1.  The flood gates then opened in the 4th
inning as Derrek Lee and Michael Barrett eached hit home runs, chasing
Tom Glavine from the game.  The Cubs then added two more runs in the 5th
inning to take a 6-3 lead.  David Wright singled home two runs in the bottom
of the 7th to pull the Mets to within one run.  Ryan Dempster came in to close
the game in the bottom of the 9th and allowed two 2-out singles and was
pulled for Kerry Wood who got the final out and preserved the game one victory
for the Cubs.  Jose Reyes went 3 for 5 with a double, triple and home run in the loss.
HRs: Barrett(1,2), Floyd(1), Lee(1), Reyes(1), Valentin(1)
Chicago leads 1-0

Game 2: Ted Lilly vs Orlando Hernandez
Once again the Mets got out to an early lead, this time they lead 4-2 after
four innings.  The Cubs tied the game in the top of the 5th inning on a 2-run
home run from Mark DeRosa.  El Duque was chased in the 6th inning as the Cubs
scored three more runs to take a 7-4 lead.  The Cubs got stellar relief pitching
from the likes of Scott Eyre, Neal Cotts, Kerry Wood and Ryan
Dempster who bailed out Ted Lilly who went 3 innings and gave up three home
runs.  Jacque Jones went 4 for 5, with a single, double, two home runs and
scored three runs.  Carlos DelGado homered twice for the Mets.
HRs: DelGado(1,2), Beltran(1), DeRosa(1), Jones(1)
Chicago leads 2-0

Game 3: John Maine vs Mark Prior
John Maine to the rescue!  With their backs against the wall, the Mets got a stellar
performance from young pitcher John Maine.  Maine threw 87 pitches over 6 innings,
allowing only 3 hits, all of them singles, striking out three and walking three.
With the game tied 1-1 heading into the 7th inning the Mets took the lead on a solo
home run from Carlos Beltran.  Jose Valentin added a solo shot in the 8th, as the Mets
went on to win 4-1.  Duaner Sanchez pitched three scoreless innings of relief, only
allowing one hit.  Mark Prior pitched 6 strong innings, allowing 7 hits and struck out 5
in the loss.
HRs: Beltran(2), Valentin(2)
Chicago leads 2-1

Game 4: Oliver Perez vs Jason Marquis
The Mets hoping to even the series, scored first when Jose Reyes clubbed a 4th inning
pitch into the right field seats at Wrigley Field.  The Cubs answered back in the bottom
half of the 4th, with a 3-run home run off the bat of Michael Barrett, his third of the
series.  The Cubs would tack three more runs on the board in the bottom half of the 6th
inning on back to back home runs from Aramis Ramirez and Jacque Jones.  The Mets would
chase Jason Marquis from the game with 2 runs in the 8th inning on a 2-run shot from
Moises Alou.  Ryan Dempster pitched the 9th inning and got the save as the Cubs went on
to win 6-4.
HRs: Barrett(3), Jones(2), Ramirez(1), Reyes(2), Alou(1)
Chicago leads 3-1

Game 5: Mike Pelfrey vs Rich Hill
On the brink of elimination, the Mets sent rookie pitcher Mike Pelfrey to the mound.
Pelfrey melted under the pressure, giving up 5 runs in the first inning and only getting
two outs before being removed.  The big blow coming on a 3-run home run by Cliff Floyd.
The Mets veteran offense was not about to lie down and play dead for the Cubbies.  The Mets
scored once in the 2nd, twice in the 4th and once again in the 5th to pull to within one run.
In the top of the 7th inning, the Mets knocked Cubs starter Rich Hill out of the game on a
2-run home run by Shawn Green.  The Cubs shaken and now down 6-5, scored two of their own
in the bottom half of the 7th on a 2-run home run by Jacque Jones to take a 7-6 lead.  In the
top of the 8th, the Mets scored two more runs, this time on a 2-run home run off the bat of
Carlos Beltran.  The Cubs found themselves down 8-7 in the 8th inning, and they were able to
muster one run on a two out double by Cliff Floyd.  The game went to extra innings tied at 8-8.
In the top of the 11th inning the Mets got a solo home run from David Wright and took a 9-8
lead.  In the bottom of the 11th inning down to their last out, Alfonso Soriano took Billy
Wagner deep to left field to tie the game.  There was no more scoring until the 15th inning, when
Paul LoDuca singled home Shawn Green to give the Mets a 10-9 lead.  The Cubs were unable to
score in the 15th and the Mets won the thrilling game.
HRs: Beltran(3), Wright(2), Green(1), Valentin(3), Soriano(1), Jones(3), Floyd(2)
Chicago leads 3-2

Game 6: Carlos Zambrano vs Tom Glavine
Hoping to avoid a game seven at Shea Stadium the Cubs sent ace Carlos Zambrano to the mound in
hopes of a trip to the championship round.  The Cubs drew first blood when Alfonso Soriano scored
on 2-out double by Aramis Ramirez in the 1st inning.  The Cubs scored three more runs in the 3rd
inning on a 3-run home run by Jacque Jones, his 4th of the series.  Trailing 4-0, the Mets scored
one run in the bottom of the 3rd inning on an RBI double from Carlos DelGado.  The Cubs chased Tom
Glavine in the 4th inning with three more runs, the big blow coming on a 2-run home run off the bat
of Mark DeRosa.  The Mets pushed across another run in the 4th inning but found themselves trailing
7-2 after four innings and the daunting task of having to ralley off of Carlos Zambrano.  The Mets
were able to breakthrough in the bottom half of the 7th inning and scored 2 runs on a double by Paul
LoDuca and LoDuca scored on Moises Alou's single.  Zambrano left the game in the 7th inning having
made 113 pitches.  The Mets down 7-5 scored once more in the 8th on a 2-out solo home run by Jose
Reyes, pulling to within 7-6.  Bill Wagner shutdown the Cubs in the top of the 9th inning.  In the
bottom half of the 9th inning, the Cubs brought in closer Ryan Dempster.  Dempster pitched a perfect
9th inning, preserving the 7-6 Cubs win!
HRs: DeRosa(2), Jones(4), Reyes(3)
Chicago wins 4-2
Series MVP: Jacque Jones

Next up: Winner of the Minnesota/Boston series.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

0 recs  |  Comment 9 comments

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Jason Marquis and JJ
Jason Marquis goes 7 + IP  and gives up 2 R???

JJ series MVP???

What kind of simulation is this?  On what basis is the game being simulated, are you using 2006 stats?

Are you using a video game?

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 20, 2007 6:36 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Well!
That's exactly what I would expect from Marquis. Good simulation!
"[BCB] is much better than... well, everything." -- gravedigger, January 21, 2007

by Al on Feb 20, 2007 7:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

More realistiic
Marquis goes 3 and a third gives up 4 R's on 6 Hits.

Gets a ND

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 20, 2007 8:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Dempster pitches a perfect inning?
It all sounded good until that line.  Of course, this is dreamland, isn't it?
Go Nebraska Football!

by sanantonecub on Feb 20, 2007 10:23 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Before we go bashing the simulation...
...what if last year it had predicted that the Detroit Tigers would dominate the American League all year, race to the World Series, and then have their pitchers commit errors in every single game, more or less butchering their way to a loss to the Cardinals.

Given that prediction, we'd have said the simulation was bonkers.  

by SiValleyCubFan on Feb 20, 2007 10:55 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Simulation info
The simulation is using 2007 ZIPS projections as input data for all players.  The simulation takes into account park factors, lefty/righty splits, pitchers getting tired (pitch count), home field advantage and a few other things.  I am not saying the simulation is perfect, it's not.  It is written in VB6 by myself.  It takes into account OBP, hit rates, what type of hit rates, walk rates, K rates, speed for batters... K rates, walk rates, HR rates for pitchers.  I am probably leaving some stuff out, but that is it in a nutshell.  The Simulation Tournament is just for fun and I am in no way saying the Cubs will face the Red Sox in the World Series.  But hey, it would be a great story wouldn't it.  Just keep the goat boy away from the field.  Good luck in the championship.  I will play one game per day starting tomorrow, with the Red Sox having home field advantage due to their higher seed.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 21, 2007 1:14 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Game 1 results vs Red Sox
Championship series:

Game 1: Carlos Zambrano vs Curt Schilling
It was a rough start for Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs as 6 of the first 7 Red Sox hitters reached
base safely.  The Red Sox scored five runs in the first inning rally and knocked Zambrano out of the
game.  The Cubs scored one in the 3rd inning, then got three more in the 5th inning on a 3-run
home run by Mark DeRosa pulling to within 5-4.  The Red Sox scored one in the bottom of the 6th,
only to see the Cubs tie the game up in the top of the 7th inning on a 2-run home run by Alfonso
Soriano, knocking Schilling out of the game.  The Cubs then took a 7-6 lead in the top of the 8th
inning on an RBI double by Caesar Izturis.  The Red Sox tied the game up on the bottom of the 8th
on an RBI double off the bat of Mike Lowell.  The game remained tied 7-7 into the 11th inning when
the Cubs rallied for two runs off of Mike Timlin and Manny Delcarmen.  Ryan Dempster walked the leadoff
batter in the 11th but got the next three batters out to preserve the 9-7 come from behind win for
the Cubs, and give the Cubs a one game to none lead in the series.
HRs: Soriano(1), DeRosa(1), Youkilis(1)
Chicago leads 1-0

by Xeifrank on Feb 21, 2007 10:45 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Game 3: Boston vs Chicago .... recap
Game 3: Josh Beckett vs Mark Prior
The series moved to Wrigley Field for game three and stripped both teams of
their DH.  The Red Sox scored quickly when Julio Lugo lead off the game with a
walk, stole second and scored on a single by Coco Crisp.  Beckett and Prior then
battled each other, putting up goose eggs all the way until the 7th inning.  In
the top of the 7th the Red Sox scored on an RBI double by David Ortiz, extending
their lead to 2-0.  Mark Prior was pinch hit for in the bottom of the 7th, having
scattered 6 hits, striking out 7, walking 1 and making 103 pitches.  Kerry Wood
came in to pitch the 8th inning and gave up one run, giving the Red Sox a comfy
3-0 lead.  Beckett cruised into the bottom of the 8th inning having only alowed
3 hits.  The Cubs roughed Beckett up for 3 runs on a 2-run single by Alfonso Soriano
who then stole 2nd base and was singled home by Mark DeRosa to tie the game at 3-3.
The Cubs brought Ryan Dempster in to pitch the 9th inning, and he gave up 2 hits, 1
walk and allowed the Red Sox to score the go-ahead run.  Mike Timlin then came in
to pitch the bottom of the 9th, with the Sox ahead 4-3.  Timlin gave up a one out
single to Michael Barrett and a two out single to Cesar Izturis but then struck out
pinch hitter Scott Moore to end the game.
HRs: Ortiz
Boston leads 2-1

by Xeifrank on Feb 24, 2007 12:21 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

and once again, the Cubs swing the long ball
Interesting. So this gizmo thinks the Cub lumber mill will be in full production this year?

Boy I hope so. If A-Ram and Soriano can get close to where they were at the end of the season and D Lee to where he was in 2005, I hope the ballhawks stay happy on Waveland when the Cubs come to the plate.

Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!

by cubnational on Feb 24, 2007 11:18 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

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