Derrek Lee - Good First Baseman or Myth
Driving home tonight I heard the hosts on WSCR proudly proclaiming how having Derrek Lee back will be of great help as he will save lots of A Ram errors. And, initially, I said, hey that's right. And then I got home and look at the statistics. Hmmmm. Last season, with Lee out for much of the season and the Cubs having to play "substandard" defensive players at first, A Ram had a BETTER FP with fewer errors. Hmmmm.
Sounds like the idea that Lee saves lots of A Ram errors may be a myth.
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45 comments
Comments
Or...
Honestly, you're dumb. If you brought one piece of logic to your pessimism, I might actually agree with you. But you don't. I must be stupid for even responding.
by tyger1147 on Feb 20, 2007 10:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Inappropriate Post
The post was a personal attack on the poster and not on the idea. It is inappropriate.
Now a response to the substance.
Certainly A Ram has been working hard on getting better. But, interestingly enough, when Lee first showed up, and A-Ram's errors dropped in half, virutally all of the credit was given to D Lee. And now, when the errors continued to drop WITHOUT D Lee, the claim is made that it is because A Ram has worked harder. Which is it? If A Ram has gotten better becuase he has worked hard, then is Lee really that big a force at first? If Lee is really that big a force at first, then why did we see a further decling in errors by A Ram?
The point is that the claim that D Lee saves "many" A Ram errors is just not true. Last year, without D Lee for much of the season, A Ram made 13 errors. Even assuming that they were all throwing errors, which they are not, even if D Lee saved half of them, that's essentially six outs.
Does D Lee look impressive at first? Sure. Is he a great fielder? Absolutely. Are we giving him too much credit for his fielding? yeah, I think so. Now if he can hit like 2005, he certainly hits well enough to make him an All Star first baseman. But at first the value is really with the Bat.
by frustratedfan on Feb 20, 2007 11:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Is this possible?
by gjdow on Feb 20, 2007 11:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No Doubt
by frustratedfan on Feb 20, 2007 11:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So, Lee IS a good defensive first baseman
by gjdow on Feb 20, 2007 11:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
They don't..
by santo for prez on Feb 21, 2007 2:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And that's when.............
Trust me, now that Piehole has won a GG, it will be impossible for others to capture the prize. Lee will likely have to be errorless or else the Shitbird nation will cry foul.
by tville on Feb 21, 2007 7:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
by santo for prez on Feb 21, 2007 1:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
LMAO
by gravedigger on Feb 20, 2007 11:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hopes versus Reality
by frustratedfan on Feb 20, 2007 11:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I know what you are saying...
For instance, I also believe there's little chance this team wins the division. But you've said before that it is nearly impossible. Unlikely - maybe. Impossible - no.
The thing is that I agree with the general points you lay out there, but then you go and try to make some illogical conclusion out of them. The facts you uncover point to a team that won't be much improved. But that doesn't mean it isn't possible.
by gravedigger on Feb 20, 2007 11:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You obviously have no clue...
The Cubs were riddled with injuries last year. Through the pitching staff and their stand-out first baseman. They had a lame-ass manager that did nothing but make excuses all season long and tell everyone to look at his overall record. That team was headed for the gutter as soon as Lee went down because they had a shit manager and no one on the bench.
You say that they didn't address their problems....well then you sir, don't know squat. They increased in depth at the starting pitching position (we are no longer waiting on Miller, Wood or Prior). Our bullpen was already and still is solid. We increased (huge) at centerfield and still retain the rest of our outfield. Derrek is back and we retained Ramirez. DeRosa is an improvement (especially if we use him in RF vs lefties). This team is nowhere near the team of last year.
I know what you are doing, you do it every year. you come on here and talk shit about how horrible this team is. That way at the end of the year, you can say that "I told you so". But if you are wrong then you will cheer right along side of everyone else and say "Wow what a year". I would prefer it if you would just shut up and say thank you. We don't need to hear this (unsupported by physical evidence) blabber in February.
If you feel this strongly about it then you can e-mail me at dougstrehlow@yahoo.com and we can work out some sort of wager. I am a gambling man and we can probably work out some sort of fair bet. That is if you truly believe what you say.
by santo for prez on Feb 21, 2007 2:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll wager....
UZI
by Ozgreeder on Feb 21, 2007 8:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Lee saves errors
by gjdow on Feb 20, 2007 11:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Look versus Reality
Now, as it happens, the stats suggest that Lee has well above average range and is league average in terms of FP. Taking into account that above average range, I suspect that the FP is a bit low because he gets errors at the extremes of his range.
But to say that Lee is "outstanding" becuase he makes dives, doesn't really prove anything.
by frustratedfan on Feb 20, 2007 11:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No, it doesn't
I know the Jim Edmonds argument very well, and I tend to agree with it. That doesn't mean, however, that when Lee's height comes into play and he leaps to catch a liner that would be out the reach of any other first baseman in the league that it's a "flashy" play because he's out of position. So, you have to ask yourself, is it "flash" or is it ability? Is Lee getting to balls that other first basemen aren't? I think so.
Similarly, when he regularly rescues poor throws in the dirt -- which is something that everybody who watches him play can agree happens -- he's certainly adding defensive value to the team. Just because Ramirez is throwing the ball better doesn't take away anything from Lee. It could be psychological: Lee's ability to turn mistakes into outs in 2004 may have resulted in in a more confident Ramirez in 2005 and 2006. Or, it could be that Ramirez no longer lets poor hitting performance affect how he plays defense, something that I understand affected him in Pittsburgh. Either way, it doesn't change my opinion of Lee as a stellar defensive first baseman: it doesn't matter if he's the reason Ramirez is better or not, he's still an above-average defensive first baseman.
Simply put, you can't look solely at Ramirez's fielding percentage to ascertain how good of a defensive player Lee is. There are two other infield positions, there are plays involving the pitcher and the catcher, and there are plays he makes unassisted. In my observation, his ability to make plays on defense is greater than most first basemen in the game.
by gjdow on Feb 20, 2007 11:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If you remember what Florida fans..
by santo for prez on Feb 21, 2007 2:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Florida has fans?
by ctcoff99 on Feb 21, 2007 11:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps...
In 2004, Ramon Martinez got the bulk of the time at SS. He committed one fewer error than he did in roughly the same number of chances the year before.
In 2004, Todd Walker committed 7 errors in 213 attempts, while the year before, in Boston, he committed 16 errors in 235 attempts. Walker had one fewer error in 2005 (164 attempts).
In 2005, Neifi Perez committed 12 errors in 432 attempts. The year before, in San Francisco, before being acquired, he committed 7 errors in 273 attempts (with gold glover JT Snow at first).
I personally don't feel like looking at the difference Lee made for his fielders in Florida. The above numbers really are meaningless, however as every ballpark is different and I have no idea how many of these errors are throwing versus fielding.
I don't feel like piling on you, but it doesn't seem as though you spent much time really looking at hard numbers or considering why these numbers are they way that they are.
DmL
by dmlichte on Feb 20, 2007 11:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Correction
DmL
by dmlichte on Feb 21, 2007 12:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So bascially
no please FF dont take the time to do a little more reaserch thats not what diaries are for, they are basically for posting whatever the fuck is on your mind after you check some stats ince for 5 minutes
And then after making a diary about wheter his defense is a myth you wrote Does D Lee look impressive at first? Sure. Is he a great fielder? Absolutely. Are we giving him too much credit for his fielding? yeah, I think so
Jesus Christ! This PERSONAL opinion of yours that cannot be proven, (not that you made the effort) deserves an entire diary with a flashy title designed to suck people in to learn that the REAL issue is that you think he gets to much credit but is outstanding. I feel violated that i spent time reading this, I want the last 10 minutes of my life back, Shit like this makes me want to blow my brains out with a pistol because you took no effort or time in doing this yet have sucseeded in wasting ours.
Give me 5,000 hijacked threads over this shit.
Oh and crying to al about personal attacks pisses me off even more. This is a blog people. If you cant take some heat especially when you post something like this then you just need to find a new hobby. This isnt daycare its a place for discussion and that doesnt have to be PC 24/7. NO MATTER WHAT ANYONE SAYS.
by ksucubbie on Feb 20, 2007 11:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
::Sustained applause::
by VicVega on Feb 21, 2007 1:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sigh.
The worst part is that it was based on something said on sports talk radio.
by Al on Feb 21, 2007 4:35 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Derrek Lee is an excellent first baseman
That said, FFs theory was baseless, and his conclusions could easily be a result of extraneous variables. That isn't to say that his theory isn't possibly correct, but it's hard to debate a theory backed up with such weak, inconclusive evidence.
Also, I've said it before, and I'll say it many times more: Ramirez is one of the most underrated third basemen in baseball due to the stigma attached to him during his early career. His range isn't great, but he now has one of the surer gloves and throwing arms for 3b in all of baseball now.
by Thelonious on Feb 21, 2007 6:24 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Line drives
by Jesse Guam on Feb 21, 2007 10:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's Lee's...
I'm sorta torn on the notion of Lee's defense at first base. On one hand, he IS a good defender at first base -- scouting, sabermetrics, and SportsCenter highlights all seem to concur on this.
But something in the back of my head tells me he cannot be THAT good of a defender because... he plays first base. First base is perhaps the least defense-oriented position on the diamond. So how did Lee end up there?
(I also looked up Pujols's fielding stats, for comparison. He's not bad. Of course, I have to ask -- if you have a guy like that who can play shortstop, as apparently he can, why the HELL is he at first base? I'm starting to believe, firmly, that the two best offensive shortstops of our age are playing the corners, and I'm starting to get a little dismayed.)
by cwyers on Feb 21, 2007 9:58 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Why is Lee a 1B?
by Al on Feb 21, 2007 10:11 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Piehole at SS?
Big difference between playing those other positions and trying to tackle SS.
by tville on Feb 21, 2007 11:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i don't remember
by tomas21 on Feb 21, 2007 12:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
d.lee
by NOMAR on Feb 21, 2007 1:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Why Would You Say That
And as for offense, D Lee is a good offensive first baseman, better than league average. However, if you look at the projections on another thread, most have him exceeding his second best season, and many have him exceeding his career year. Even though he is coming off of a serious injury.
In sum, I speak unpleasant facts and it upsets many of the Polyanna's that post here. Tough.
by frustratedfan on Feb 21, 2007 4:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Pollyannas...
UZI
by Ozgreeder on Feb 21, 2007 4:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
we find it "unpleasant"
Plus, I find it funny that you're accusing us of overvaluing the defensive responsibilities of first basemen, since you've been whining for months about how Soriano is hardly an upgrade over Pierre since he's a defensive liability (completely disregarding the fact that center/right field defense is also entirely secondary to center/right field offense).
by Thelonious on Feb 21, 2007 5:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Defense
The problem with Soriano Defense is that we are not talking about the difference between a competent major league player and a great defensive player (ala Lee and your typical MLB first baseman) we are talking about the difference between a horrific defensive liability and a major league average defensive player.
Is Soriano an upgrade over Pierre? Sure. But he's not nearly the upgrade that most Cub fans seem to think. Look at his statistics. Even his career year, while good, pales when compared to great years of great (and even good) players. He has Hall of Fame stats as a second baseman BUT HE IS NOT PLAYING SECOND. He has Hall of the Good or Very Good Stats (at best) in the outfield. Add in his horrible outfield defense, and presto, he's not nearly the upgrade that the Cub fans think.
But hey, insanity is running rife on this site right now. We have near universal picking of the Cubs as the winner of the Central. Even though they were the WORST TEAM IN THE NL last season with 96 loses. It would be a near historic turn around. (And the off season pick-ups consist of a career league average pitcher, the worst regular starting pitcher in the NL last year (and one of the worst seasons ever put up by a starter), a career bench player who had his career year last year, a player who was putting up Hall of Fame numbers at a defensive position who will play a less demanding position where these stats are not nearly as good, and a player who is on the down slope of his career who is going to take AB's away from one of the few good young players on the team. In sum the Cubs haven't improved while the Cardinals have gotten better simply by the act of losing Marquis). We have Derrek Lee being picked to put up career stats exceeding all but one of his seasons (and many have him exceeding his career year) even though he is coming off a serious injury of the kind that can linger for a long long time.
In a word, at least on this site, Cub fans are being delusional. And delusional people don't like it when they are shown to be wrong.
by frustratedfan on Feb 21, 2007 11:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cold hard facts?
by Perkins on Feb 22, 2007 5:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I would also like to add
by Perkins on Feb 22, 2007 5:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What do most Cubs fans think exactly?
Also, I think it is pretty clear that the Cubs underachieved last year; that is, their record and last place finish is not exactly a good indication of the team's ability. Now, I'm not saying I thought they were very good last year; I am merely saying that I don't think they were that bad.
Moreover, I think that the reason the projections for Lee are so optimistic (perhaps too optimistic) has something to do with what people view as a general rise in his performance over the past few years, as he moves into that elusive 'prime'. The idea is that he was coming into his own when he was injured, and people are projecting that he is going to now move back into what I would call his own. If he gets around the number of at bats BCB projects, he his production will approach the BCB average proj. It might fall a bit short, but I don't expect by much.
Regarding the idea that Lee's defensive benefit is a myth: I think it's silly. The fact that Ramierez's errors didn't increase when Lee went down is certainly something less than proof of Lee's mediocrity. The guy is clearly an active first baseman, with range, and he offers a big target for his infielders; plus, he has soft hands and a talent for digging out poor throws. That is a benefit. I think that a more tactful approach on your part, or at least one that would have generated a better response, would have been using Ramierez's numbers to point out the admiral defensive job the replacements did last year, thus asserting that we are not going to see a boost defensively this year...something like that.
--And I don't think anyone knows what to expect defensively from Soriano, including Pinella. As an outfielder, he's still learning. What am I sure of is this: the guy is a talented ballplayer, and this talent will factor into his ability to learn a new position and to get better ; he has the tools, and I hope he is solid. I expect some issues to arise, but we simply don't need him to be great in the field to be a huge plus to this team.
The key, as always, will be the club's ability to remain healthy. If they stay relatively healthy, average performances from the players will make this team competitive; if a few players go down for long stretches, then some guys will have to step.
Yes, I will. Yes.
by buckmulligan on Feb 22, 2007 12:11 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Ah,
Stupid buttons.
by buckmulligan on Feb 22, 2007 12:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
man, i'm gonna have to start proofreading
by buckmulligan on Feb 22, 2007 12:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Old Dog New Tricks
by frustratedfan on Feb 22, 2007 8:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That is not what I said
by buckmulligan on Feb 22, 2007 11:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Frustratedfan
DmL
by dmlichte on Feb 22, 2007 11:34 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

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