2007 Community Projections: The Final Results

I owe a great big "THANK YOU" to BCB reader Imtrejo, who faithfully tallied up each player's projections and emailed them to me about two days after each original post was made.

Here are the final BCB projections for all sixteen players (nine hitters, seven pitchers) who I've posted here over the last couple of weeks:

Michael Barrett: AB-436 R-60 H-128 2B-28 3B-2 HR-17 RBI-65 BB-39 SO-53 AVG-.294 OBA-.352 SLG-.497

Derrek Lee: AB-578 R-107 H-174 2B-41 3B-2 HR-37 RBI-115 BB-84 SO-112 SB-12 AVG-.300 OBA-.389 SLG-.568

Mark DeRosa: AB-481 R-67 H-138 2B-28 3B-1 HR-10 RBI-63 BB-39 SO-98 AVG-.286 OBA-.339 SLG-.411

Cesar Izturis: AB-524 R-56 H-142 2B-26 3B-4 HR-4 RBI-45 BB-32 SO-58 SB-11 AVG-.271 OBA-.312 SLG-.356

Aramis Ramirez: AB-578 R-93 H-174 2B-37 3B-1 HR-40 RBI-124 BB-51 SO-65 AVG-.300 OBA-.358 SLG-.594

Matt Murton: AB-450 R-72 H-135 2B-24 3B-3 HR-16 RBI-62 BB-55 SO-65 SB-12 AVG-.299 OBA-.376 SLG-.470

Alfonso Soriano: AB-576 R-113 H-158 2B-33 3B-3 HR-36 RBI-94 BB-55 SO-147 SB-32 AVG-.275 OBA-.338 SLG-.531

(Note: if this one comes to pass, Soriano would become the second-ever 30/30 Cub)

Jacque Jones: AB-489 R-65 H-133 2B-25 3B-1 HR-21 RBI-69 BB-36 SO-109 SB-8 AVG-.272 OBA-.322 SLG-.456

Cliff Floyd: AB-321 R-40 H-79 2B-19 3B-0 HR-17 RBI-54 BB-25 SO-60 AVG-.270 OBA-.326 SLG-.464

Carlos Zambrano: G/GS-34 IP-225 H-170 W-19 L-7 BB-91 SO-215 ERA-3.02 WHIP-1.16

Ted Lilly: G/GS-32 IP-191 H-188 W-13 L-11 BB-85 SO-161 ERA-4.23 WHIP-1.43

Rich Hill: G/GS-31 IP-192 H-160 W-14 L-9 BB-65 SO-189 ERA-3.65 WHIP-1.17

Jason Marquis: G-32 GS-26 IP-171 H-183 W-9 L-11 BB-63 SO-91 ERA-4.77 WHIP-1.44

Mark Prior: G-18 GS-16 IP-100 H-80 W-7 L-5 BB-39 SO-105 ERA-3.89 WHIP-1.19

A note on Prior from Imtrejo:

These numbers are all messed up. As was discussed in the original post, the numbers were all over the place. There were 11 projectors with three predicting 0's across the board and one person predicting a Cy Young type season. The number most affected by this is ERA, as people who predicted a stronger season also projected more innings, thus weighting the ERA in their favor. In all probability these numbers will be way off; Prior will either pitch or he won't and these numbers represent somewhere in the middle.

Note from me: the Prior projections were made before his second appearance, and thus are probably indeed skewed toward the "way off" position. I sure would have changed mine had I done it today.

Ryan Dempster: G-70 IP-73 H-69 BB-35 SO-71 W-3 L-4 ERA-3.43 WHIP-1.42 SV-30 SVOPP-35

Kerry Wood: G-58 IP-67 H-46 W-5 L-3 BB-30 SO-80 SV-5 SVOPP-6 ERA-2.20 WHIP-1.13

Finally, don't take these too seriously. Some of you likely did these with some sort of statistical bent, others just guessed; some people put wildly optimistic or pessimistic numbers for various players. This isn't intended to show what will be, only what might be. That said, with the possible exception of Prior, I don't think any one of these is that far out of line. If these were to come true as written, these seven pitchers would combine for a record of 70-50, which would be 95 wins in a 162-game season. I think we'd take that!

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