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Why (Certain) Stats Mean Nothing


Carlos Zambrano warms up before Sunday's game in Tempe. Photo by Al

TEMPE, Arizona -- See, I know headlines like that get some people's blood boiling, and it's not what you think.

But I got you to read this far, right?

Look at Carlos Zambrano's line from today's game -- 5.2 IP, nine hits, four earned runs (6.35 game ERA, 1.59 game WHIP) and it doesn't look all that good.

But there is a story within that you wouldn't know unless you saw the game, a 4-0 loss to the Angels. Z gave up three singles in the second inning, loading the bases -- one of those singles was a ball that was knocked down by Ryan Theriot, but he couldn't make the play on Howie Kendrick, who runs very well. After Brandon Wood singled to load the bases with one out, Chone Figgins hit a ball down the line that Daryle Ward couldn't make a play on.

Result: ball in RF corner, bases cleared, triple for Figgins.

Now does any one of you think that play would have happened that way if Derrek Lee had been playing first base today?

Of course not. Lee, one of the better-fielding 1B in the game, would likely have speared the ball and at the very least gotten one out, and perhaps started an inning-ending double play. Had that happened, Z might have gone through the first six innings giving up what John Lackey did -- nothing. Lackey was dominant, giving the Cubs only two singles (one by Theriot, the other by Cesar Izturis); Z gave up only two other singles until he ran out of gas in the sixth inning, when the Angels scored their fourth run on three hits -- including yet another ball that Alfonso Soriano seemed to not see very well off the bat, which went for a double over his head.

And it was just then that I was thinking, "Soriano seems a lot more comfortable out there today", as he had made several nice plays, and appeared to be reading the ball pretty well. Actually, I think he's going to be just fine. Each day does seem to be getting better for him out there, and remember the man has been playing CF for all of two weeks' worth of actual competition.

Back to Z for a moment -- one of the best things about his day is that he didn't walk anyone. I don't have an exact pitch count, but it was low enough through five innings that Lou Piniella let him go out there for the sixth, which I don't think was in Lou's original plan. Z struck out Wood (his fourth K) for his final batter before Scott Eyre came on and ended the sixth with a comebacker. Eyre also threw an uneventful seventh before giving way to... Hector ("Not Danny") Almonte.

You're saying, "Who?" Well, so was I. No one at the game seemed to know who the righthander wearing #77 was, either. I had to look him up -- here's his undistinguished major league record. He's 31 and last appeared in a major league game in 2003, for a team that no longer exists, the Expos.

He had a 1-2-3 inning, but why? Michael Wuertz and Roberto Novoa, two pitchers who the Cubs might actually need (particularly Wuertz) were sitting on the bullpen bench. And it didn't appear that either one was going to get into the game even if the Cubs had tied it up -- warming up at game's end was Carmen Pignatiello.

Well, at least this defeat was fast and merciful -- two hours and thirteen minutes, on another hot (91 degrees at gametime) day, in front of the usual half-Cub-fans-at-a-road-game crowd.

I ran into Rob from 6-4-2, the Angels/Dodgers combo blog, whose wife Helen is a big Cubs fan. She was around somewhere, but didn't come out to the lawn to say hi. I'm expecting to see them sometime later this week back at Mesa -- and Rob, if you were thinking I wasn't recognizing you at first, I wasn't, because you looked quite a bit different than the last time I saw you two years ago!

I'm not worried about the offense -- sometimes, you just run into a good pitcher having an outstanding day, and that's what John Lackey was doing with the Cubs today. The Cubs, who have been fairly patient hitters this spring, finally drew the game's only walk with two out in the ninth (Ryan Theriot) off Darren Oliver (yes, that Darren Oliver, who the Cubs released in 2005 after he had three really bad appearances for them at Iowa, after which he became a reasonably effective middle reliever for the Mets last year).

Finally, although the folks in Mesa have improved the souvenir concessions considerably this year, they could take a lesson from the Diablos, who run the show in Tempe. A program nearly identical in size and content to the $5 book they sell in Mesa... cost one dollar.

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Bite your tongue Al.....
we don't need Novoa.
RAMIREZ!! PRIOR!!

by PriorandAramisfan23 on Mar 18, 2007 6:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, maybe not.
But he's closer to being a Cub than Hector Almonte is, anyway.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 18, 2007 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trade throw-in
My first thought was that Almonte might be a throw-in for a trade for a backup middle infielder, and the other team asked if they could pitch him for an inning so that the scouts could take a closer look at him in game conditions.

Otherwise, it's kind of pointless - let the outfielders get some practice chasing warning track fly balls served up by "El Gasolino" Novoa.

by Invalid User on Mar 19, 2007 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You might be right...
... although they could have also given Wuertz an inning... he was sitting in the bullpen.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 19, 2007 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe it...
...has something to do with whatever injury has been sidelining Wuertz throughout camp. Remember, The New CBA Restricts What We Know About Player Injury. (tm)

by cwyers on Mar 19, 2007 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No walks for Z is encouraging
And his line makes a lot more sense in context.

by gjdow on Mar 18, 2007 7:00 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Riddle me this
One thing that I absolutely don't have an answer to is the Cubs desire for Soriano to be their CF if they have an interest in Pie as a Cubs. Think about this:

If the Cubs see Pie as the future CF of the Cubs, why not put Soriano in RF and Jones in CF? And if you decide to trade Jones you can simply insert Pie in CF and Soriano doesn't need to move. And the fact that Jones had played CF before makes this even more perplexing and he'd probably do at least as good a job as Soriano in there. I just don't get it. Any of you do?

Luis

by Luis on Mar 18, 2007 7:03 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Very good points.
I never thought of it that way, but you bring up a very interesting question. Maybe they thought Jones would be even worse in center than a guy whose never played there...?
Well, sometimes nothin is a real cool hand.

by wicubfan on Mar 18, 2007 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because...
... Pie can also play right field. It's entirely possible that if Soriano finally does adapt to CF (and he very well might), then why move him next year? Pie can play RF once Jones is gone.

Jones has played CF before ... but not on a regular basis for six years. He'd be almost as much a novice out there as Soriano is.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 18, 2007 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's exactly my point
Jones would be a novice in CF as well, but seeing that he has been an outfielder during his career and has played there some (even if six years ago) leads you to believe, at least a priori, that he'd be at least as good as Soriano in there. And then, yes, Pie can play RF but if he is the better defender having him in RF with Soriano in CF would make no sense. Anyway I look at this seems to have no logic at all.

Luis

by Luis on Mar 18, 2007 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I doubt it
Perhaps right field at Wrigley is more difficult than right field at other parks, but I doubt that even in Wrigley you'd want your best defensive outfielder in right. And that's not taking into account that you still play half the games away where CF is definitely going to be more challenging defensively.

Luis

by Luis on Mar 18, 2007 10:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

My thoughts on this...
would be to lets wait and see how Soriano does in Chicago with the high winds.  We have no idea how he will adjust once he is playing everyday in Wrigley Field.  Who knows, Soriano may never adjust well in CF.  If that is the case, moving him to RF and starting Pie in CF may not be a bad idea.

by VandalayIndustries on Mar 19, 2007 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Programs
One of the reasons that Arte Moreno is such a great owner is that he thinks that every fan should have a program as part of the baseball experience.  He's said often that if a dad can afford to buy his kid a program, a cheap Angels cap and an ice cream cone, then dad is a hero and the kid is a fan for life.  (And they'll come back for more.)

The programs are that cheap at Angels Stadium too.

I can't tell you how much Arte Moreno has done to improve the experience of going to Angels Stadium.  He gets a lot of credit for lowering beer prices, but he's done a lot more than that.  (To be fair to Disney though, Disney did do a great job of keeping the place clean.  They didn't do a lot else right though.)  And by doing all this, he's turned the Angels from an afterthought in the SoCal market to something close to parity with the Dodgers. Sure, the World Series that Disney left him helped, but the crowds haven't gone away since, even without a World Series.

(Heck, I used to go to Angels Stadium under Disney to get some peace and quiet.)

I realize that Moreno took over a pretty unique situation (an undervalued and under-marketed team in a major media market) but I really wish other owners would learn from him.  Since he took over the Angels, they've never drawn under 3 million (and usually around 3.4 million) whereas previously, they'd never drawn more than about 2.5 million.  This really isn't much different than how Walter O'Malley built the Dodgers in the 1960s.  Make sure every fan can afford to have a great time at the ballpark, and they'll beat down the door to get in.

by Josh77 on Mar 18, 2007 7:38 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

No kidding he's changed that team...
Moreno has flooded the LA market with outdoor advertising. There was a blazing red billboard with an "A" (that's all, just the logo) on seemingly every other corner.

Couldn't see any outdoor advertising for the Dodgers. Perhaps they are doing TV in the LA market, but those Angels boards are everywhere.

by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Mar 18, 2007 11:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll take that as a compliment
I've lost over 40 lbs since you saw me last.  We'll try and give you a ring and see if we can meet for dinner or something.  We're gonna catch the Rangers and Giants at Tucson to see if we can see Sammy on Tuesday...
The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.

by scareduck on Mar 18, 2007 7:57 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It was a compliment.
You look great. Call anytime. Enjoy the trip to Tucson!
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 18, 2007 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Amazing stats
It is amazing what doesn't show up in the box scores.  Only by watching the game (or listening in my case) do you see or hear what really goes on.  That kind of information is so important since it gives the impression that not everything is good for Big Z when in actuality, he was awesome today.
I just picked Big Z up for my fantasy team -- Cy Young, World Series MVP -- it all looks good to me.

by This is our year on Mar 18, 2007 8:56 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It wouldn't be unheard of
for Z to start slow. In April last year he goes 0-2 with something like a 5.50 ERA (too lazy to look it up again) after 6 starts. And if he does it again this year, everyone will be freaking out (especially if he is signed long term).

On a separate note, I am really glad to hear Prior is coming back for another outing this week. A good bit of me is expecting him to falter, but how awesome would it be if he came out with a 90 mph fastball and could give up no more than 2 runs in 5 innings. Kinda sad where were at with him, but I would be pumped if he could show some progress. I just don't see the upside to Miller or Guzman that is there if Prior could get in a groove.

"You know what? You want a job? Go out and earn one." Sweet Lou

by Kyle Turney on Mar 18, 2007 10:45 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Prior and Z
Prior: a pitcher who used to throw in the mid-90's with fabulous control who now throws in the mid-eighties with terrible control is as big a red flag as there can be. This has Joe Borowski written all over it.

Z: I'll get really really excited about Z when he learns to change speeds with his fastball so he can get lazy grounders instead of so many foul balls. Until then he will be a very very good pitcher, but not an ace.

Luis

by Luis on Mar 18, 2007 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm
Do you think that Prior has as much upside as Borkowski at this point?  Borkowski actually looks like he may have gotten back to being effective.

As for the comments about Z not being an Ace, those comments are preposterous.   If you look at the stats that mean something, he's one of the best pitchers in the NL and has been for several years.   Assuming that you use a "reasonable" definition of Ace, he's an Ace.  (Of course if you are going to use an insane definition of Ace, you are right.  But then you would add nothing to the discussion.   You can also define a "win" in a war as having troops on the ground being shot and killed for many years after the win.  But then, as I noted, we are talking about sane people).

by frustratedfan on Mar 19, 2007 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let's see
I think Prior is hiding an injury in the same way that Borowski did several years ago when his velocity dipped unexpectedly from 92-93 to the mid-80's. As far as how much of his stuff he can regain it would depend if he has an injury and what kind of injury it is. If he has no injury and is throwing in the mid-80's then that is even worse in my eyes. Either way, the pressure is getting so high that I think if Prior succeeds again in MLB it probably won't be as a Cub.

As for Zambrano, here's the deal: do you know why Zambrano has never won more than 16 games? It's because he can't finish games or get through the 8th inning consistently. And the reason for that are his insane pitch counts. That's what keeps him from being a true ace. A guy who flirts with 100 pitches around the 6th inning, and has to be taken out games most times because of pitch counts instead of performance, is not a true Ace by my standards.

Luis  

by Luis on Mar 19, 2007 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Zambrano
Nonsense.  Zambrano, in terms of Innings Pitched, is consistently near the top in NL starters.  He has gone over 200 innings pitched each of his last three seasons.   If you look at last season, in all of the loses in which he pitched, he allowed at least as many runs as the Cubs scored in all but 4 of them.    The bigger problem is that the Cubs scored 33 runs in those thirteen losses (and more than half of those runs were in three games).  

Go ahead and pretend Zambrano's not an ace.  As I said, if you are going to use an insane definition of the term, you are "right" but your words have no meaning.
 

by frustratedfan on Mar 19, 2007 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cardinals
 The football Cardinals futility can be traced to the fact they began as a Chicago team.  As the old saying goes:  "You can take the Cardinals out of Chicago, but you can't take the Chicago out of the Cardinals."

by KedzieKid on Mar 19, 2007 8:44 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

pitches
Does anyone know how many pitches Zambrano threw yesterday? The lack of walks is encouraging, and for the few innings I watched, he seemed to be around the plate and trying to challenge hitters. But as Dan Plesac and Rick Sutcliffe (I think) so thoughtfully observed during the telecast, Carlos won't be everything the Cubs need until he stops throwing so many pitches and can go deeper into games.
"Hello again, everybody. Harry Caray from Wrigley Field on a beautiful day for baseball."

by danimal15 on Mar 19, 2007 8:52 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I didn't get an accurate pitch count.
But I do know this: he was only supposed to go five innings, and instead faced five batters in the sixth. So he must not have reached whatever pitch count they had for him after five innings, which is encouraging.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 19, 2007 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was 81
According to the Sun-Times. Definitely not encouraging. It would probably mean 100 by the 7th inning. In a perfect world, he's throwing 100 in 9 innings.
"Hello again, everybody. Harry Caray from Wrigley Field on a beautiful day for baseball."

by danimal15 on Mar 19, 2007 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yabbut...
... Z has never done that... he can easily throw 120 without breaking a sweat.

81 in six innings, essentially? Let's call it 85, if he could have gotten the last out on four more pitches.

That's 14 pitches per inning... which would be 126 in a 9-inning game. I don't think that's too outrageous.

And you know as well as I do that despite the way you'd like it to be, the Cubs aren't likely to have more than ten CG's as a team this year. Only Cleveland (13) had more than nine in 2006.

We could argue forever (and we have) whether this is a good thing or not. But it's reality. If Z throws 7 or 8 innings every time out, he's doing his job.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 19, 2007 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Standards and Reality
Those that argue that Zambrano is not an ace or should be expected to pitch into the 9th inning are living in Reagan's Rose Tinted Glasses era (okay, actually probably earlier than that -- pre-Carter).  As you rightly note, only one TEAM in the majors had double digit complete games last year.   This is an era issue.  The days of pitchers like Bert "Other Major Omission from the Hall of Fame" Blyleven who AVERAGED 11 complete games a year and had a season high of 25 are long gone.  Even pitchers like Greg Maddux, who averaged 5 GC a season with a season high of 10 are gone.   Pitchers don't pitch CG's anymore.  And to include in your definition of "ace" a requirement of CG's, essentially renders the definition meaningless. Era does count.  A home run hitter, in the pre-Ruth era, was one who could threaten 10 hr a year.  A home run hitter in the height of the Steroid era was one who could hit 30+ a year.  And in the current era, a pitcher that give you 200 innings (something Marquis has done twice, Miller once, and Hill, Guzman and Lilly never have) is significant.

by frustratedfan on Mar 19, 2007 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Zambrano
I wasn't trying to say he should go 9 every time. I'd be happy if he could give 7 or 8 quality innings a start. Ecstatic, really. A CG here and there wouldn't hurt, but I'm not expecting many.
"Hello again, everybody. Harry Caray from Wrigley Field on a beautiful day for baseball."

by danimal15 on Mar 19, 2007 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thread
Well we've got another thread going where someone is actually deluded enough to argue that Zambrano is not an elite pitcher because he doesn't go as far in the game as the average of the single top pitcher in baseball each year in terms of innings pitched.

In other words, delusional.

by frustratedfan on Mar 19, 2007 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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