BCB Interview: Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll

by Al Yellon on Mar 22, 2007 8:42 AM CDT in Interviews

Last week, I was given the opportunity to send questions about the Cubs to Will Carroll, who was going to forward them for responses to Christina Kahrl, who writes BP's Cubs chapter.

There's bad news and good news. The bad news is, Will lost the questions I originally sent him (the ones you all posted here last week). The good news is, when I re-sent them last night, he answered them himself. This isn't meant to diss Christina at all, but as you know, Will is greatly respected himself, and, as he described himself to me, "an ex-Cubs fan ... it's like a bad relationship. They could only hit me so many times before I had to leave."

Well... all of us have been hit in that way, I suppose. But we're still here, and here are Will's answers to our questions.

Q: We already know that Rich Hill has locked down a rotation spot, and that we know Wade Miller is still battling with Angel Guzman for one, and that Lou Piniella has been making a lot of encouraging OBP-like noises this spring training camp, does all of this mean that Lou may have "gotten religion" about modern statistics?

A: Well, let's look at this. We know now that Guzman's out of the starter chase. Hill is locked in, but do you feel like he's the #2, or is this so called "#5 slot" where Miller's really going to be? Piniella is tasked with winning now on a team where several young players are clearly better options. Felix Pie helps the team defensively and projects to be solid offensively. Matt Murton doesn't need a platoon partner. Ryan Theriot is better than Cesar Izturis in every category except "most Z's in name." Lou appears to have gotten some religion while he took a year off, but we haven't yet seen that he values it. It's a long season and we'll get more evidence as it moves along.

Q: Do we know any details about the specific injury (shoulder) that Oneri Fleita said affected Felix Pie's batting in Winter Ball this year? Should we discount his terrible Dominican League statistics, or be worried that there might be lingering effects?

A: There haven't been any effects this spring. Winter injuries are notoriously difficult to get a handle on since they can be both underreported and exaggerated, often at the same time. Looking good in spring training is enough to make me look past any winter problems.

Q: Who would be a good comparison player to Angel Guzman--hurt in the minors, but with good stuff, and trying to enter the league at age 25 or so?

A: PECOTA comes up with some interesting names. David Cone established himself at 25 by winning 20 for the Mets. Let's not expect that. Russ Ortiz won 18 at 25, his first as a full-time starter. Let's not expect that either. How about a guy who Chicago fans will know - Dustin Hermanson. Injury prone and only establishing himself at 24, he went 8-8 for a fading Expos team. He had a couple good years, some starting some in the pen. That's not a bad comp for Guzman.

Q: Do the Cubs need to acquire a different shortstop to reach the playoffs this year?

A: No, why not try Theriot there first? Theriot is predicted to nearly equal [Cesar] Izturis' VORP getting just over 200 ABs. Ronny Cedeno is a better option. Heck, Neifi Perez might be a better option. Is he available? Did I just throw up in my mouth?

Q: The Cubs were horribly shallow at first base last year. When Derrek Lee went down, we saw a lot of bad hitters in the lineup. At what positions are the Cubs weakest this year? Are there any minor league players (e.g., Scott Moore) who could surprise if thrown into action due to someone else's injury?

A: Any team should be able to come up with something at 1B. There are scads of players at Triple-A that could stand in for a couple weeks and succeed. Not having one in Iowa is just poor planning. Now, it's not likely that a devastating injury like Lee's can be overcome by some replacement level slugger, but it can be minimized. There's always someone out there like Ross Gload, Chris Coste, or Andy Abad, just looking for a chance.

Q: Will the Cubs get anything of value in return for their excess relievers, or will they just hang onto guys like Novoa and Wuertz long enough to lose them for nothing?

A: That's a tough market. You'd like to see [Jim] Hendry just waiting for someone to make a desperation move or to swap strengths with some organization that's heavy on something the Cubs need. No one's excited to get Novoa - remember how he came over, as a throwin for a throwaway.

Q: What's best for the Cubs line-up, to have Alfonso Soriano leading off, or in the middle of the line-up, where he can drive in more runs and perhaps allow an OBP guy like Matt Murton to lead off?

A: Lineups don't matter much and if Soriano feels more comfortable at the 1, so be it. He's the stolen base threat and maybe that helps Murton more than Murton being on base 36% of the time. The difference between .350 and .360 is actually pretty narrow, enough that I'll go with whatever Piniella decides there.

Q: Are solo home runs and low OBP skills at the top of the order offset by his stolen bases or does it make more sense to put him in a position to drive in more runs? It's not only Soriano's generally weak obp skills that need to be compensated for, we're also going to have a weaker bat than his in the middle of the lineup. Will 40 or so stolen bases make up for all that?

A: It would make sense to have him further back in absence of other power threats. The Cubs have [Aramis] Ramirez and Lee back there. Where it could hurt is with Izturis never being on base ahead of the pitcher, leaving Soriano hitting too many solo shots. I think if Jones gets a solid platoon partner or is pushed aside by Felix Pie (Soriano to LF, Murton to RF), then it's really moot.

Q: Will we lead the league in solo home runs this year?

A: Good question. Did the A's lead the league in years where Rickey Henderson was there, or the Yankees? That's one I'll sic the data guys on.

Q: How is jerking Soriano around the outfield going to affect him, if at all? Last year he played left and now he's going to be the center fielder. Yet we all know he's headed to right as soon as Jacque Jones leaves and Pie is going to take over in center.

A: He seems okay with it. There's been none of the drama of last year. We might get some if the wind really affects him or if he falters early.

Q: Would the Cubs have better spent their money filling a need rather than throwing money at a name player with relatively ordinary offensive numbers for a corner outfielder (Soriano)

A: What need? Pitching? They got who they wanted of what was available. SS? They weren't looking. The money's irrelevant - it certainly didn't stop them from spending on everyone else. It's not like the team had $20m dollars to fill everything. They spent just over a third of their offseason bounty on him. Was there a better free agent out there?

Q: Which, if any, of the Cub offseason acquisitions are most likely to retard the development of the team and do not help toward winning now?

A: Why anyone felt the need to give Jason Marquis more than an NRI is beyond me. Did they need to block Guzman? Did they feel he was a better option than ... anyone? I guess so. Larry Rothschild said he could fix him and seems to be trying to turn him into a sinkerballer. I'll believe that when I see it. To me, that move could be the Victor Zambrano move for Rothschild. At least they only gave up cash.

Q: Why does PECOTA seem to love Pie so much, calling for a 20 HR campaign this season if he were to play in the majors? He's yet to show that kind of power at any level previously, does he share any similarities with Hanley Ramirez with regards to potential vs. output in the minor leagues?

A: What's not to like? Speed, great defense, a projectable body.

Q: Assuming that Zambrano, Hill, Lilly and Marquis are the first four starters, who should be #5? Miller or Guzman or Prior?

A: I'd go with Guzman, but that's based on long-term, not "right now." Miller's pitched better in the spring, for what that's worth (not much.) I can't make any argument for Prior.

Q: Do you maintain any metrics that show how accurate or bad your preseason predictions are after the season is over?

A: No, we leave that to independent parties. Year after year, PECOTA has tracked as the most accurate tool out there. In one study, we were first in hitters, second in pitchers, but Nate Silver is always working to improve what happens in his magical laptop each offseason.

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Comments

Always refreshing

to hear someone with a brain make it abundantly clear that Cesar Izturis is about as useless as balls on a priest.

by Jhoratio on Mar 22, 2007 9:33 AM CDT reply actions

It's scary...

... that he says Cedeno is a better option than Izturis, too.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Mar 22, 2007 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions

Except maybe

For his gold glove skills. HA! I'd rather see ARam at SS with Theriot at 3B.

"Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice-versa." -Casey Stengel

by cubbybear on Mar 22, 2007 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions

LOL

Frankly, in the 20 games Izturis played at SS last year, plus what I've seen of him this spring, I don't see those GG skills. Maybe that's just "small sample size", but so far, I'm not impressed.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Mar 22, 2007 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions

not a mirage...

....having been going out with a Dodger fan for the last 6 years and been submitted to the torture of having to watch them over the last 6 years, I can tell you that Izzy's Gold Glove status as a SS is not an urban legend. The guy can rake.

He didn't show much of it last year and for what reason, I don't know. Probably a combo of a new team, playing only 1/3 of the season and the most likely, adjusting to playing on one of the toughest infields in the game.

Having said that, that's why I am not dissatisfied at that position or him playing there and batting 8th and not providing much stick. If you ask me, that's the most important Defensive position on the field and I'm looking forward to seeing him play a full year there.

I've got more of a problem with Derosa at 2nd, then Izturis at SS.

by lemon17pie on Mar 22, 2007 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions

People seem to act...

...like offense is something subject to coming and going, but defense is a static thing -- once a guy is good at it, he stays good at it.

That's, uh, pretty much the exact opposite of truth. Barry Bonds can still hit the baseball pretty well, despite the fact that his knees and pretty much every other joint is gone. Same with Mike Piazza. Now, they're two different defensive extremes -- Bonds gave very good defense at a position that demanded little of him defensively for most of his career; Piazza provided barely acceptible defense at a very demanding position. But now Bonds is an enormous defensive liability in left field, whild Piazza has nowhere to go but DHing.

The guy has had Tommy John surgery, back and hamstring problems, no consistent playing time over the past few years... and we're supposed to believe that he can play great, rangy defense at shortstop because he got a Gold Glove in 2004. Well, that's great, but it's 2007, and he needs to prove that he has value to this team, not just live off past glory. Remember: the Cubs do not gain any ground in the standings because of defensive plays Cesar Izturis made two years ago.

by cwyers on Mar 22, 2007 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions

To be honest I don't understand your point.

Are you saying the Cubs should play Cedeno there? Theriot? Like it or not, we will find out one way or the other whether or not he can resort back to the defender he was wayyyy back in 2004.

Let's not forget that he's still only 27 years of age. I've seen him play about 5 times this year and have seen no ill effects of his hamstring problems or his Tommy John surgery, a procedure which is now the effect to an oil change for MLB pitchers who have come back and equaled their previous success and in many situations, came back better. So for some reason I don't think that is too much of a concern for his defensive abilities.

by lemon17pie on Mar 22, 2007 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions

My point wasn't...

...that Cedeno or Theriot should start over Izturis. Will Carroll did make that point in passing, I do believe. And the PECOTA projections probably bear that out.

The fact of the matter is that, looking at the best defensive stats I could get my hands on (Zone Rating, PMR and RCAA), Cesar Izturis has never been an exceptionally above average defensive shortstop. That's fine -- being just marginally above (or even marginally below) average defensively at shortstop is still playing better defense than, oh, 90% of everyone else in baseball, I'd wager. And that's where Cesar's defense seemed to be at. But, taking 2005 PMR as my guide, he's not even as defensively valuable as Neifi Perez or David Eckstein at this point. Heck, I hate saying this, but he wasn't as OFFENSIVELY useful as Perez and Eckstein last year.

All I'm saying is, we had a Gold Glove shortstop who couldn't hit to save his life last year, and everyone here couldn't have been happier when the Tigers took him off our hands. We can go ahead and wishcast him to provide as much value as he did in his career year, or anywhere near that value. Nevermind his injury history or any of that. But that doesn't mean it's absolutely going to happen, and failing to acknowlege that is going into this with blinders on.

by cwyers on Mar 22, 2007 7:54 PM CDT up reply actions

Thats hilarious..

n/t

Well, sometimes nothin is a real cool hand.

by wicubfan on Mar 22, 2007 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions

Biggest points

SS: Theriot everyday SS, that is what I am saying and Izturis as utility...when?

CF: Pie emerging and Soriano moving back to LF and Murton to RF

SP: Guzman over and over again

Marquis, why?

Best Harry moment: 'Hey there's Marla without her shorts on!'

by Ivy Walls on Mar 22, 2007 9:39 AM CDT reply actions

Good to read

IIRC, questions 2-6 were mine. Thanks to Will for attempting to answer them. Some of his responses were particularly well-informed or thoughtful. I had hoped to get a better perspective on the Cubs' minor-leaguers in the question about Lee's injury last year. Hermanson is a good comp for Guzman. Angel may be useful for a few years being switched between starter and reliever as his health dictates. I don't know Dustin (I have met his mom!) but my impression was that he kept throwing when he shouldn't, and ended up getting hurt more than necessary. I'm not so sure about Theriot's defense at short. I think DeRosa might actually have better range.

The call of the Cub fan, c. 1893: "one long, ravaged, derisive yell...a cyclonic whoop!"

by cubzfan on Mar 22, 2007 10:58 AM CDT reply actions

Wow!

I was trying like heck to remain optimistic on Izzy. It's hard to do after reading this.

Hey Lou, we're long overdue.

by deadcatbounce on Mar 22, 2007 11:21 AM CDT reply actions

Interesting. Thanks Al.

I thought it interesting that he said lineups don't matter much especially after the crying ad nauseum about Dusty last year..

Well, sometimes nothin is a real cool hand.

by wicubfan on Mar 22, 2007 11:59 AM CDT reply actions

I never really thought

that the lineup sucked, I just thought that the players in the lineup sucked.

Good morning ma'am... I'm here to fix the cable. -- Lee Northwood

by eamuscatuli1881 on Mar 22, 2007 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions

Agreed..

but if I had a dime for every post here crying about Dusty batting this guy here or there, I could retire.

Well, sometimes nothin is a real cool hand.

by wicubfan on Mar 22, 2007 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions

Toss in everytime the Giants fans...

....said that as well and your kids could retire too.

by lemon17pie on Mar 22, 2007 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions

Carroll

really seems to have it in for Izturis. From what I've seen in Mesa, Izturis is a smooth, good hands shortstop who won't hurt the team hitting in the 8 hole. Cedeno is flashy but erratic. His one handed running pickups of ground balls are errors waiting to happen. Theriot seems defensively challenged at short and third.

If Izturis can hit .260 his superior defense makes him the clear choice as Cubs shortstop.

by Clark Addison on Mar 22, 2007 12:27 PM CDT reply actions