greetings from VEB

by lboros on Mar 30, 2007 1:27 PM CDT

[editor's note, by Al] As I have over at VEB, I've invited Larry to post his thoughts about our biggest rivals, the Cardinals, here at BCB. Looking forward to the season and beating the Redbirds again this year!

greetings, all you goat cultists. it's your friendly rival lboros from next door at Viva El Birdos. given the possibility (likelihood?) that both the cardinals and cubs will be strong contenders for the nl central title this year, al and i decided to exchange preseason pleasantries with each other's fan bases. i'm dropping by to let you know how things stand with my team.

on a team as creaky and old as ours, the first issue's always go to be health. that's particularly true for a team as superstar-dependent as the cardinals. if edmonds and isringhausen recover from their off-season surgeries --- and pujols, carp, and rolen stay healthy --- the cardinals will be in the race and probably win it. but if any one of those five guys misses significant time, they'll be hard-pressed to contend. izzy and edmonds are among four cardinal players who are at least 29 years old and coming off surgery; if you'll bear with me, i will review each guy's status.

isringhausen: looks good to go. they sanded down the head of his femur, and his hip's back to normal; he's throwing pain-free. last year, he favored that balky joint so much it unbalanced his whole delivery, resulting in 6 walks per 9 innings; this spring he has thrown nothing but strikes, walking only 2 of the 27 batters he's faced. no homers this spring either, and virtually no flyballs allowed (3). when he throws back-to-back days without pain, we'll know for sure he's alright. but all indications to date have been positive.

edmonds:has only made 11 plate appearances this spring, with 1 hit. he's recovering from surgeries to shoulder and toe, while trying to shake post-concussion syndrome. the cards are worried enough about his availability that they staffed the bench with two backup centerfielders --- light-hitting skip schumaker and so taguchi --- at the expense of the better-hitting john rodriguez, whose bat they could really use. talk to me again in a month, and maybe i'll feel better about mr edmonds; at the moment i'm worried. if he's nothing more than a half-time player, the cards are in trouble.

mulder: hasn't even started to throw. they've been targeting july 1 all along; if the rotation is holding up without him, they'll probably give him more time. if the rotation sputters, they'll be very tempted to rush him back --- and if they do he'll probably only make matters worse. i'm not counting on anything at all from him this season; he's still just six months removed on surgery to his pitching shoulder. i'd be happy enough if he doesn't appear in a game until september --- happier still if he never appears in a game that the cardinals really need to win.

encarnacion: his wrist didn't respond to nonsurgical treatment, so he went under the knife very late in the off-season and still hasn't swung a bat. he needed a cortisone shot last week to settle down some scar tissue. there's no timetable for his return. under normal circumstances, cardinal fans would applaud en'cion's absence --- he got booed by the home crowd last year and ripped to shreds on talk radio. but with edmonds also ailing, and the resulting need to have 10 good-glove no-hit centerfielders on the roster, encarnacion's absence will be glaring. taguchi and schumaker will get their share of at-bats in right field; compared to them, juan'cion is babe ruth.

so there's your health report; that's where the story of the season will be told. we can spend all the time we want debating braden looper's prospects, or how badly chris duncan is likely to backslide; important issues, but they're of secondary weight. they'll sort themselves out. here are the role players i'll be watching most closely:

anthony reyes: he's got a ton of ability --- viz. the 1-hitter he tossed at the white sox last year, and the strong 8 innings he threw against the tigers in the world series. but he showed some rookie jitters and made some rookie mistakes. if he taps even a portion of his front-of-rotation potential in 2007, the cards' thin margin of error will widen. reyes is not a favorite of la russa and duncan; there's a chance he could end up as trade bait, particularly if the early returns on mulder's rehab are positive. no matter how well he pitches, reyes must consume innings this year ---- average 6 innings per start, minimum. high pitch counts last year too often drove him from the mound after 5.

brad thompson: he opens the season as la russa's designated 8th-inning pitcher by default; josh kinney, expected to perform in this role, is out for the season. thompson looked extremely sharp this spring and has broadened his repertoire; last year he got into trouble by relying too much on his sinker. the cardinals are concerned enough about their setup staff that they tried hard to acquire jorge julio, a walk and homerun factory, from the diamondbacks; i'm grateful that he ended up in florida.

yadi molina: his top PECOTA comps are good hitters --- ramon hernandez, mike sweeney, and michael barrett are among the top 4. he posted a .358 / .424 / .547 line last october in 59 plate appearances vs playoff-caliber pitching staffs. he's got to have more to offer than the .599 OPS he "contributed" last season. the cardinal lineup dead-ended at the #5 slot last season; if it's going to avoid that in 2007, molina will have to start hitting. i think he's capable of .260 / .300 / .400 --- and if he can come close to those targets, the cards' flimsy margin for error fattens just a bit more.

there also are some interesting storylines down at triple A, where the cards have several candidates to provide bullpen help at midseason. it's a st louis tradition --- kiko calero came up in '04 to be a key member of the relief corps, ditto thompson in '05 and kinney last year. and maybe the best thing the cardinals have going for them is payroll capacity ---- there's room in the budget to take on an impact player during the season, and the cardinals may need one.

here's the best-case scenario for my team: edmonds starts 110 to 120 games and maintains his 2006 level of performance; is'hausen returns to form; and the cardinals trade for burrell or tejada or dye or somebody like that. i'm not at all worried about the st louis rotation; it'll be adequate, and possibly very good if reyes and wainwright both get their feet planted. the worst-case: edmonds goes pfffhhht and the offense scores 720 runs; the setup corps implodes; mulder hurries back and gets shelled for 15 starts.

so there's your report from st louis. i hope the cubs and cards give each other some competition this year. and no matter what, i'll be reading you here at BCB.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Comments

long deep breath...

boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

nice post!

Not that kind of north side.

by HerrProf on Mar 30, 2007 2:00 PM CDT reply actions

booooooooooooo?

thanks for the post. it's nice to get some insight other than regular game notes. however, while i would love to see jd back in the national league (i cannot get used to him in the uni of the dark side) i sure don't want to see him on the cards!

by No Southern Belle on Mar 30, 2007 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions

They sanded down his femur???!?!?!!

I'm pretty sure I'd need to fall into that swimming pool in Cocoon to ever even walk again!

Good morning ma'am... I'm here to fix the cable. -- Lee Northwood

by eamuscatuli1881 on Mar 30, 2007 2:05 PM CDT reply actions

Pujols

Didn't your cranky first baseman have a cranky back last year? Is he at 100% this spring?

by madtown on Mar 30, 2007 2:08 PM CDT reply actions

How...

...do you like our new center fielder?

Look at Tommie Frazier. How many tackles can one man break?

by CubsPackersHuskersBadgers on Mar 30, 2007 2:12 PM CDT reply actions

Spanish lesson

Shouldn't the blog title be Los Birdos, not El Birdos?

And for that matter, Vivan rather than Viva?

by ChipSet on Mar 30, 2007 2:13 PM CDT reply actions

Close

True to Spanish, irrelevant to history.
The Cardinals of the late 70's were called "El Birdos" so to change it to be correct in another language would be silly and pointless. Viva also does not matter except to anal retentive people and goes with "El" anyway.

by sherwood on Mar 30, 2007 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions

anal retentive meaning "hispanic"?

not like there were many of those in st louis in the 70s right? ;)

Not that kind of north side.

by HerrProf on Mar 30, 2007 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions

howdy folks

sorry i'm slow to answer these comments. the "El Birdos" things is explained, more or less, here. orlando cepeda coined the term during his 3-year stay in st louis. i think he might have been poking fun at our midwestern provincialism or something; for whatever reason he deliberately butchered the spanish (which was, after all, his native tongue).

here's a link to a picture of a rah-rah El Birdos souvenir from the summer of 1967 . . .

http://www.cardinalshistory.com/images/el-birdos_pin.jpg

by lboros on Mar 30, 2007 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions

hold up...

A Cardinal player dumbing himself down to connect to the fans...Sounds about right!

;)

by DTJchris on Mar 30, 2007 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions

But the pin says

"el birdo", not "el birdos".

by ChipSet on Mar 30, 2007 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions

nice

post.. that is all

by Kchance on Mar 30, 2007 2:16 PM CDT reply actions

outstanding .. well written .. thoughtful

thanks VEB

But may Tony LaRusso fall off his wagon and may the Evil Red Scum fall into the dust

GO CUBS

Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!

by cubnational on Mar 30, 2007 2:21 PM CDT reply actions

Thank you, sir...

...now please take off that hat before I have to knock it off.

Ha, just kiddin'!

Seriously, thanks for posting. One of my goals this season is to better familiarize myself with Cubs rivals and there's no better place to start than the Cards. You've given me a lot to think about.

One question, which you're probably sick of hearing, but I figure someone here is going to ask so it might as well be me: Are you at all afraid of Jason Marquis coming back to bite your team on its tattered tail? He's garnered a fair amount of, shall we say, skepticism around here to say the least.

But some of us are hoping that the unceremonious boot LaRussa gave him off of the postseason roster might serve to fire him up -- especially against the Cards.

Your thoughts?

I didn't have the ball, bitch!

by daver on Mar 30, 2007 2:22 PM CDT reply actions

No

I live in Chicagoland, and watch a lot of Cubs games. I rarely watch spring training games, though.

A week or so ago, I turned on a game and Marquis was pitching. After a few minutes I thought "wow, I'm not sitting here gritting my teeth!" Much more enjoyable when he's not wearing the Birds on a Bat.

Sure, I can't root for Sosa to K anymore. But now I can root for Marquis to give up runs!

by sdrone on Mar 30, 2007 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions

re: No

I hear ya. I'm guessing most Cubs fans will feel the same way any time we happen to flip on a Detroit Tigers game and see Neifi slapping (and missing) at another 0-2 slider. (Or trying to bunt for a hit with runners on and two outs in the bottom of the ninth.)

I didn't have the ball, bitch!

by daver on Mar 30, 2007 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions

I was listening to the tigers/yanks game today

and neef almost forgot to score from 3rd on a bobbled sac fly. My heart grew warm with nostalgia.

Not that kind of north side.

by HerrProf on Mar 30, 2007 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions

answering your original question datcubfan

marquis is an emotional guy and i'm sure he would like nothing better than to make the cardinals pay. he expressed genuine dismay and surprise at being left out of the postseason rotation --- even despite the 6.02 era.

he's obviously a better pitcher than 6.02 suggests, but i'm not sure he's much better than 5.00. if the cubs had signed him to a 1-year deal, i would have thought it a pretty shrewd pickup. at 3 years, it's not a very good signing. but they only play 1 year at a time, and you never know --- he could be a decent pitcher for 1 year. maybe this year.

he's got some good old-timey baseball qualities. i like him a lot better now that he pitches for somebody else.

by lboros on Mar 30, 2007 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions

re: answering your original question datcubfan

Thanks for your response!

Based on it and most of the comments on Al's post over at VEB, I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that Cards fans probably won't exactly be quivering in fear or weeping with regret when Marquis takes the mound against their team.

I do, however, see a couple of Cards fans over at VEB predicting a decent year for Marquis. So I guess there is hope. (Then again, what has this world come to when I'm turning to Cardinals fans for moral support?)

Let the rivalry begin anew.

I didn't have the ball, bitch!

by daver on Mar 30, 2007 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions

Bipolar Betty

Ok, that is funny!

But hopefully not the case this year.

by madtown on Mar 30, 2007 2:25 PM CDT reply actions

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/comments/2006/6/16/925

by madtown on Mar 30, 2007 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions

re: http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/comments/2006/6/16

This link doesn't really go anywhere (at least for me). That is, it goes to Viva El Birdos, but the page is essentially blank.

I didn't have the ball, bitch!

by daver on Mar 30, 2007 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions

sorry

The post was about pitchers as prom dates. Here is the Marquis entry:

"Marquis is bi-polar Betty. A pretty girl that would be the envy of your friends, but you have no idea which personality will show up on the big night."

by madtown on Mar 30, 2007 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions

despite the glaring lack of

a shift key, it was a very nice post. thank you.

Go Nebraska Football!

by sanantonecub on Mar 30, 2007 2:25 PM CDT reply actions

Won me over

at "viz." I haven't seen that since law school. Nice job!

by TC Cubby on Mar 30, 2007 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions

i should have warned everyone

about the lowercase thing. started out as a purely lazy habit; now it's schtick . . .

by lboros on Mar 30, 2007 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions

have always wondered about this....

when I check out veb. are you a big ee cummings fan?

I agree that edmonds is a big question mark. I think/hope this will be a good year for the rivalry. lord knows the cards will have a bulls eye on their back not only when the cubs play them.

As a Cubs fan, The 2006 season will be remembered by me as....the first that I could buy Old Style cans with Cubs logos on them....

by coopergillan on Mar 30, 2007 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions

naw, i'm just lazy

too lazy to hit the shift key --- and definitely too lazy to read serious poetry.

i do know "casey at the bat" by heart, however.

by lboros on Mar 30, 2007 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions

Thanks Larry

Reyes looks like he's going to be pretty good. I saw that the Cards pitching did very well in the Grapefruit League.

Enjoy the season, hope we have a nice competitive season this year.

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Mar 30, 2007 2:38 PM CDT reply actions

How's Wainright looked in the starting role?

Just curious, for the sake of my fantasy team.

by Wreckard on Mar 30, 2007 2:40 PM CDT reply actions

Well

How does leading the Grapefruit League in innings pitched and era for qualifying pitchers sound?

by sherwood on Mar 30, 2007 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions

Better for the Cubs Wainright is starting,

That 12-6 Curve is wicked and now he won't come out to strike out the side every game as set up man or closer.

My favorite part of the Cards offseason is that they have to pay Carpenter market rate. Ties up the cash and keeps them from purchasing multiple other quality players.

"You gotta keep the ball off the fat part of the bat." Satchel Paige

by N Oakley on Mar 30, 2007 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't get it

Everyone seems to default to the Cardinals winning the divison again, and perhaps they will, but frankly I'm hard pressed to figure out why anyone is high on them. On paper, this is a .500 team.

The starting pitching is, at the very least, unproved beyond Chris Carpenter. If the Cubs starting staff was rounded out with Kip Wells, Braden Looper and and Adam Wainwright, everyone would label them a 6th place team. Yes, there is potential in Wainwright and Reyes, but this is a staff that, beyond Carpenter, didn't have a whole lot of wins last season. Their starting staff, while potentially very decent, could be a total train wreck.

The bullpen is shaky, especially with the loss of Kinney. Isringhausen is a big questionmark. Pujols and Molina are as good as it gets at their respective positions. Rolen is a questionmark and after that, you've got a big time fall of in terms of quality.

IMO people are up on the Cardinals, well, because they're the Cardinals. I'm certainly not sold on the Cubs, but I don't think this Cardinals team is anything to write home about.

DmL

by dmlichte on Mar 30, 2007 2:44 PM CDT reply actions

i think

you could safely write that exact same post and substitute Astros, Brewers, Cubs along with the appropriate players and you'd be right on...

Carpenter = Zambrano
Wainright = Rich Hill
Kip Wells = Marquis
Looper = Miller

the only difference is Reyes and Lilly, with Lilly being much more dependable and Reyes probably having a little more upside

seriously, you're right on about the Cardinals looking like a .500 team, but so do the Cubs and the Brewers and the Astros on paper...

by DartmouthCubsFan on Mar 30, 2007 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Oh I'm sorry just out of habit when thinking about one of my most hated baseball teams. The report was on the players I wanted to know how the drunk oops again I mean your manager is doing?
I will never forget the story Jimmy Piersall told about Larussa when he was manager of the Sox.

"I had said during a show that whoever was coaching the outfielders wasn't doing a very good job. They were out of position, they were throwing to the wrong base. It was a bad situation. So one night about eleven or 11:30 at night, LaRussa, Charlie Lau and Jimmy Leyland drive down to the studios. They told the guard they had an appointment to see me and he let them in. I'm in the studio and they march in. LaRussa's yells, `are you trying to get Leyland fired?' I didn't know who was coaching the outfielders so I said `no, but whoever he is he's doing a lousy job.' They started to act tough when one of our producers walked in, he was a real big guy, about 6-4 and when they saw him they left. I tore Tony's ass from then on. LaRussa acts real tough but he isn't and Leyland is nothing but a little phony."

"All I can say is that Tony's real lucky he's had great players in Oakland and in St. Louis because he is a terrible manager."

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/rwas/index.php?category=11&id=2852

Speaking of Piersall anyone know what he is doing nowadays? I miss his baseball reports on the Score.

I can't believe Al put Rick Wilkins in the top 100 cubs.

by diehardmark on Mar 30, 2007 3:10 PM CDT reply actions

Great post Larry....

Great analysis of the Cards. Sanding down of the femur----------ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

I love the Cubs. I don't dislike the Cardinals, but the respect is there and that is what makes our rivalry the best.

Here's hoping for good race in September!

by cubbie08 on Mar 30, 2007 4:07 PM CDT reply actions

Nice post...

...and a nice idea to switch off for a post. Thanks for the updates. I think the Cards will be contenders for the division again this season. It will depend on their health. Hmmm...that sounds slightly familiar...

Now, in all sincerity:

May the Redbirds' road drop off of the face of the earth,
May the wind always be in their faces,
May the sun shine be eternally blocked from their stadium by a big black cloud,
and may rains fall forever on their field,
Until we meet again, may pine tar cause their bats to forever stick to their hands.

(Since St. Patty's Day just passed -and I'm Irish- I figured that Irish proverb would be fitting. I just kinda put a twist on it :)

Ahh, finally...spring has arrived...

by Mark H @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Mar 30, 2007 4:47 PM CDT reply actions

Good stuff, Larry!

Looking forward to whipping up on the Chickens-on-a-Stick again this year!

ROTHSCHILD!!! (sucks)

by Floyd on Mar 30, 2007 4:55 PM CDT reply actions

Thanks for the participation - Rolen Question

So - in comparing Rolen to A-Ram, after last year, are you seeing a decline in SR's skills?

Who do you give the edge to in 2007?

And, truly, how is the current relationship with SR and LaRussa?

Cardinals make me see Red!

by TheEman on Mar 30, 2007 5:43 PM CDT reply actions

Barring injuries, it has to be Rolen

their offense is vaguely similar, but Rolen is the best defensive 3B in baseball. He's not quite at the age yet where he's going to start some sort of precipitous decline, I think. Rolen, despite being called a question mark by many, quietly had a .296/.369/.518 season in 520 AB.

by Valatan on Mar 31, 2007 5:51 AM CDT up reply actions

hi mr. lboros! :)

What about Chris Duncan? Is he the starting left fielder? If there's one team I don't follow it's the Cards, so I don't know for sure. I don't really like him, but that's because he seemed to do something to help the Cards all the time in the postseason.

I think Wainright will be OK, and if he wasn't a Cardinal I would like him.

"I don't talk. I just let what I do talk for myself." -Johan Santana

by sparkles721 on Mar 30, 2007 9:38 PM CDT reply actions