This is serendipitous timing, as Hill will make his spring debut on TV today against the White Sox. So if you like, you can watch him throw, and then make your projection.
Had we been doing this for Hill a year ago, I probably would have projected him to either have an ERA north of 10, or spend the year at Iowa, and up to August, that would have looked pretty damn prescient. As most of you know, I was one of his biggest detractors. Was I wrong? Not based on what I saw in his first fourteen major league appearances.
Something positive happened to him after he got sent down last summer, and after his recall he was 6-3 in 12 games (11 starts) with a 2.58 ERA, and 78 K and 21 BB in 76.2 IP, including this spectacular two-hit shutout of the Reds on September 16. With only 54 hits allowed in that time, that's a ridiculous 0.98 WHIP; multiply that by three (since that's just about 1/3 of a season) and you've got a Cy Young season. It was good enough to even make his full-season stats look decent (6-7, 4.17, 1.22 WHIP). He threw the only two CG's the Cubs had in 2006.
I don't think he's that good, but I do think Hill has "figured it out":