Young Players and Standards
A number of people have been commenting most recently on the worthlessness of the Cub young players such as Matt Murton and Ronnie Cedeno. The comments, particularly those directed at Murton, to my mind, seem ill chosen because they represent an unrealistic set of expectations for a good major league player at an early stage of their career. So I ask these folk the following question:
Exactly what standards would a young player have to meet in order for the young player to be considered anything other than a failure. I don't want "creepy eye" answers (ie the player has to "look" like a player because such answers are of no value. I want an objective test - such as hit .375 with a slugging percentage of .650 (which would appear to be the Dusty Baker minimum test)
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29 comments
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i agree w/ you
by Old Style Heavy on Apr 21, 2007 1:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Performance
Add to that the general acceptance of veterans as having paid their dues. So mistakes from a veteran are often accepted while the same error by a youngster is proof he isn't worthy of being in the majors.
The past two days we've heaped tons of scorn on Cedeno and Murton when neither was primarily responsible for the loss.
I went back and looked at the discussion of Hill last year and it generally was a 50-50 breakdown of ship him to Siberia or he'll be OK in time. Imagine if we had bailed on him last year?
So, in summary, there is no generally accepted test for measuring youngsters. Sometimes the debate itself is worth the price of admission to the club.
by tharr on Apr 21, 2007 1:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
that's because
by Faith plus 1 on Apr 21, 2007 1:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
different answers depending on position
murton is a little different because he's a corner outfielder. so i expect more offense out of him. i would definitely take his stats from last year. but i'm underwhelmed with what i've seen of him this year. he's not taking pitches like he used to, and he's not going opposite field. he doesn't have enough power to be useful if he's not gonna hit around .290, or get on base at a .400 clip. those are high standards, but that's what comes with corner outfielders i think.
by billywan on Apr 21, 2007 2:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
interesting...
Not to mention Murton's only like 26, w/ years to improve, whereas Soriano's 31, an age where players traditionally have peaked. Therefore, Murton's numbers will actually go up, yet Soriano's will go down.
Oh, and don't expect Murton to even match his numbers when Piniella doesn't give him enough AB's. IF Piniella gives him more AB's, Murton's #'s will definitely exceed last year's.
by Old Style Heavy on Apr 21, 2007 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok, maybe .400 is a bit high
i'm not saying move him. and the fact that he's so cheap means he's more likely to stick around for a bit. but if we could upgrade with a trade, i'd be more than happy to sit murton.
by billywan on Apr 21, 2007 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know this is directed at me
Cedeno is worthless and that's all there is to it. You needn't look any further than his minor league numbers to see that.
Murton is not worthless and I never said he was. I said he's a marginal left fielder and marginal means he has some value. He's not ever going to be a great left fielder. Yes, his defense is better than some suggest it is. He has more speed than people give him credit for yet it doesn't really show up very much (not scoring from 3rd on two different plays would be a great example here). Last year he was ranked, by VORP, as the 17th best left fielder (400 or more plate appearances if I recall correctly) out of 29 or 30 left fielders. Among 2006 left fielders with 350 or more plate appearances, he ranked 20th out of 32 in VORPr.
He's not a player who is going to improve much. He's an extreme groundball hitter and these players tend to decline more rapidly than they improve...even at a young age. As a result, it's unlikely he ever hits for much power (in 2006 he was 19th in slugging). His on-base skills, as his speed deteriorates, will decline somewhat (despite all the love for his on-base skills, he ranked 10th in obp among left fielders with 350 or more plate appearances).
I could go through almost any other stat and we'd see that Murton, overall, is a below average left fielder. Maybe that's good enough for you. But that is the precise definition of marginal. He has some value, but NONE as a starting outfielder.
You can compare him to vets all you want, but until you begin to compare him to players with similar skills, it's meaningless. His top 20 comparables according to BP are Rondell White, Rick Reichardt, Chad Allen, Alex Ochoa, Luis Matos, Aaron Rowand, Gil Flores, Gabe Kapler, Bernie Williams, Mark Whiten, Bob Watson, Dmitri Young, Carlos May, Ken Berry, Mike Darr, Hal Morris, Lee Walls, Glenn Braggs, Tony Horton, and Glenn Wilson.
Not exactly a bunch of studs among those players, are there? He's a marginal left fielder. IT's really that simple. You're free to believe otherwise and ignore all the stats that are available to you if you wish, but it doesn't make him better than slightly below average.
As a cheap outfielder, he's just fine. When he reaches his 2nd and 3rd year of arbitration, however, see ya Matt!
by Maddog on Apr 21, 2007 6:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Do you read BP?
Ok, so first of all, you're not cuing in on the definition of average here. Your definition of marginal sucks, too. League-average ballplayers have value. PECOTA seems to think he's worth 9 million dollars a year over the next five years. Unless you know something about Murton's arbitration hearings that I don't, he looks to be insanely valuable over that time period.
by cwyers on Apr 21, 2007 7:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and as for Cedeno...
by cwyers on Apr 21, 2007 7:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're talking
His 5-year projected VORP is 76...about 15 per season, which is below the average left fielder.
You've misinterpreted any definitions because I've never given any. A marginal player does have value as I stated. I've never said Murton doesn't have value, but he's below average and will always be below average in outfield production. If he played 2nd base or shortstop, maybe he'd be league average, but that's not going to happen.
I said all this stuff last year and people here were telling me no way and that I wasn't giving him his due credit. Well, at the end of the season, he sat right where I expected him to (slightly below average). I see it's the same thing this year and I'm not going to bother with it. Matt Murton is a marginal player. It's a fact. PErhaps a sad fact considering where we are, but a fact nonetheless.
by Maddog on Apr 22, 2007 12:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Apples and oranges
That's not to say Murton will become comparable to them, but his stats at their age compare him favorably with Gibson and Abreu.
By your standards, most every rookie would be labeled marginal. My bet is Murton will end up being a much more powerful batter as he matures. Hopefully those years will be in a Cubs uniform.
by tharr on Apr 21, 2007 8:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
That's the last I'm saying on this. I simply don't give a rat's ass what the do with Murton. He's not valuable enough for me to spend much time worry about it.
by Maddog on Apr 22, 2007 12:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As you said
As long as you want to dismiss others as being fools for not accepting your projections, you're right. It's senseless to try to discuss it further.
by tharr on Apr 22, 2007 3:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps
To believe that a rookie needs to be compared differently one must believe that his skill set indicates future progress. Matt Murton's does not.
And you know what? Even if he does improve along the same lines as you'd expect the average hitter to, he's AVERAGE in LF. He'll have below average power to go along with that. He's being moved to RF now. So his relative value drops even further.
by Maddog on Apr 22, 2007 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Idiots and Stats
Give me a number or shut the F--k up.
by frustratedfan on Apr 21, 2007 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What fucking
As I said, you're free to ignore the stats as you are doing. That's your choice. I'm just not going to do that.
by Maddog on Apr 22, 2007 12:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Both of you...
Thank you.
by Al on Apr 22, 2007 5:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This Isn't About Murton
by frustratedfan on Apr 22, 2007 8:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It DEPENDS
Has Murton been acceptable? Of course he has been. I've never said he wasn't. Is acceptable good enough. Of course it's not.
by Maddog on Apr 22, 2007 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's nothing impatient
We know what Matt Murton is capable of at this point. We know what his ceiling is. Yes, he's a positive offensive producer, but compared to league average in left field, he does not and will not ever measure up.
by Maddog on Apr 22, 2007 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Realistically...
What would you have said Ryne Sandberg's "ceiling" was after his first two major league seasons? Would you have predicted he'd have a Hall of Fame career, or won a MVP award, or had a 40-HR season?
Not saying Murton will do any of that, but I also think it's too early in his career to say he can't do that.
by Al on Apr 22, 2007 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ceiling?
by frustratedfan on Apr 22, 2007 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm glad...
[new] Projection
H 190
D 35
T 3
HR 32
AB 610
BB 80
Avg .311
OBP .391
Slg .536
OPS .927
Steals 23
CS 3
by frustratedfan on Monday, February 26, 2007 at 4:35 PM CT
[ Parent ]
It's hard to argue with a guy whose thought process is so corrupted by intense mancrushes. You also predicted that Hill would go 26-3, and Prior would go 17-4. The fact that your Hill projection STILL looks ridiculous even considering how well he's performed so far is really saying something.
by Thelonious on Apr 22, 2007 4:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Context
by frustratedfan on Apr 22, 2007 8:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"silent as a tomb", eh?
My silence regarding your soriano prognostication comes with a simple excuse: I don't commit to notes any of the copious mancrush-inspired, smug-and-whiny polemics that you contribute to this site (those being your only style of posting--as one might expect from one called "frustrated fan"). But this is a silly reason to gloat: pick ANY baseball player, and you can predict correctly a token "day-to-day" injury over the course of a baseball season. I don't see Soriano, on the DL, do you? Let's hear your next prediction, frustrated Nostradamus...will Kerry Wood's robust frame ever break down again???
by Thelonious on Apr 22, 2007 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Use of the term "marginal"
It doesn't help your argument to use clearly inaccurate hyperbole and it just hacks-off a bunch of so-called man-love Murton fans.
LRRF
by Littlerock Rynofan on Apr 22, 2007 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cedeno and others
Marshall comes to mind. To further answer what is acceptable for either rookies or 2nd year players. I thought Marshall had an acceptable year as a rookie. He showed flashes of being a good pitcher. In this case his W-L record and ERA were not that great, but you saw the potential in him. I am holding out hope that yet this year we get to see him pitch with the Cubs.
by wild bill on Apr 22, 2007 6:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
There is no magic number(s)
To the Murton question, he is a contributing member of the team but the Cubs do not need to make a spot for him just so he can start everyday. He's not in Pie's class in terms of future upside.
by rlpete on Apr 22, 2007 9:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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