Why The Cubs Are Bad

by brianp88 on Apr 25, 2007 9:16 AM CDT Comment 77 comments

Why are the Cubs this bad? Why is this happening again? Lets break it down.

First, we take a look at the shortstop position.

Here are Cesar Izturis'numbers:

Average: .184
HR: 0
RBI: 2
Runs: 3
Average with runners on base: .050 (1 for 20)

Here are Ronny Cedeno's numbers:

Average .103
HR: 2
RBI: 4
Runs: 2
Average with runners on base: .067 (1 for 15)

Combined, Cub shortstops are hitting .153.

They are hitting .057 with runners on base.

Both of these men need to be terminated immediately. Neither man has shown to be capable of putting up anything near league average numbers. Cedeno is a career .246 hitter, with an obp of .276. Izturis is a career .258 hitter with an obp of .294. Both men's obp of under .300 makes them BAD BASEBALL PLAYERS, a negative influence that drags down run production on any team they play on. Send them away. There are 20 to 25 BACK-UP shortstops on other major league teams that could do a better job than either of these clowns.

Secondly, due to the almighty dollar, the superior Ryan Theriot finds himself on the bench while the inferior Mark DeRosa gets the bulk of the playing time at second base.

DeRosa, who is hitting .258 with a .324 obp, has whiffed a team leading 18 times -- 29% of his at-bats end in a strike-out.

Meanwhile, Theriot who found himself on the bench while the Cubs were playing critical games against division leading Milwaukee, is hitting .333 with a .358 obp. He's whiffed 7 times or in 13% of his at-bats. Clearly, Theriot is a superior player, yet because DeRosa is making the big money he plays and Theriot sits.

Then we have the outfield, where we have five players but only three spots to play them in. The guy with the obp skills (Murton) sits, while Floyd and Jones steal at-bats from him.

Oh, the bullpen is bad too, expect for Mike Wuertz and Ryan Dempster.

This is a poorly constructed roster. An outfielder and a reliever need to be traded for an shortstop. It's as plain as day.

Action needs to be taken to overhaul the roster immediately, before it's too late. Too late is creeping up quickly.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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I agree.

Never new why we took Izturis in that Maddox trade. He may be a great guy, but so is my dad and I don't want him shortstop either.

'07 Postseason: Bears, Bulls... Cubs?

by stelmodad on Apr 25, 2007 9:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I have to agree...

admittedly without reading through the entire length of postings...

20 games in or not, Cedeno and Izturis are taking up roster spots that they shouldn't be. Theriot has indeed earned a starting spot (for now) and there is nothing that can be said to argue against this. Not even Lou says he hasn't earned playing time (and I think that he does not just mean spot starts and pinch hitting).

Do what you want with DeRosa and Theriot but I would MUCH rather those two at middle infield than what we have. This improves our offense...along with PLAYING MURTON REGULARLY...not Floyd and Jones (whether he will be okay by the end of the season or not) is a sporadic producer...this is holding the team back.

Finally, the bullpen and overall pitching...what the hell can actually be said?

Those who pitched well last year blow, and those who blew last year, (ie. Wuertz) are looking pretty good. Our starters (our staff ace included) are just not doing what they are paid to do. What can be done? I say, we have very few options except dump Ohman soon, tell Scott Eyre he will be gone too if he doesn't get with it, and for the love of god, give Zambrano some deal and hope that is what is making him suck balls.

Oh yeah...and keep the hope alive cub fans (that was sarcasm by the way).

Got Hebrew National?

by Kinky Reggae on Apr 25, 2007 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh yeah,

I don't do the stat thing...these are my opinions based on what I know and what I feel. Of course I recognize that there is a reason I am neither a GM or manager in MLB...for the record.

Got Hebrew National?

by Kinky Reggae on Apr 25, 2007 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What?

I am sorry but I have to point out some flaws in your argument:

"Both men's OBP of under .300 makes them BAD BASEBALL PLAYERS" Who are you comparing these numbers to? They bad in the 7-8 spot, so please compare these numbers to other SS in the league that bat in this spot of the batting order.
"Secondly, due to the almighty dollar, the superior Ryan Theriot finds himself on the bench while the inferior Mark DeRosa gets the bulk of the playing time at second base." - how many seasons has Theriot played at the MLB level? According to you logic above, if you have an OBP of over .300 you are a good player, Derosa had 1 season below .300 OBP (.293). Derosa is proven, it has nothing to do with money. Derosa may lead the team in whiffs, but he is tied for the lead in homers on the cubs, 2nd in RBIs (1 behind Barrett), tied for 2nd in TB (total bases). Theriot leads in SB.

You see the beautiful thing about stats, is that you can tweak and do what you want and present a stat in your favor, and yes it may get your point across, but what stat do you look at? I gave examples of why Derosa is playing...he leads the team in some run producing stats and he has produced numbers that put numbers on the scoreboard not just on paper.

You are making a big deal about OBP, but the fact of the matter is that is a completely useless stat if they get stranded on base and never score.

I think as soon as the Cubs start playing bad, fans want to single out one player or a few players. There are 25 guys on the team that all contribute, and it is a 9 inning game, 162 game season. Everyone has a chance to succeed and everyone has a chance to fail. Instead of singling out individual stats, look at team stats and talk about the team, not individual players. As much as we want this to be an individual sport, it is not, it is a team sport. This is the team we have right now, this is the team we march out on the field, they have to figure it out until "action needs to be taken to overhaul the roster immediately". Just remember, we wanted an overhaul last year, we got it, and now fans are not happy...

by HIGGY on Apr 25, 2007 10:09 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

What?

"so please compare these numbers to other SS in the league that bat in this spot of the batting order."

The point is to have a shortstop that can hit, so YOU DON'T HAVE TO HIDE HIM AT 7TH or 8TH in the batting order. Get a REAL shortstop. Someone like:

Derel Jeter
Miguel Tejada
Jose Reyes
Aaron Hill
Hanley Ramirez
Jack Wilson
Edgar Renteria
Carlos Guillen
Felipe Lopez
Khalil Greene
Jimmy Rollins
Royce Clayton?!
Alex Gonzalez
J.J. Hardy
Orlando Cabrera
Macier Izturis
Julio Lugo
Bill Hall
Adam Everett
Alberto Callaspo
Juan Uribe
Bobby Crosby
David Eckstein
John McDonald
Brendan Harris
Wilson Valdez
Craig Counsell
Chris Woodward
Erick Aybar
Alex Cora
Juan Uribe

There's 31 guys that play shortstop that will out perform Izturis and Cedeno. GO GET SOMEONE!

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 25, 2007 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you

for the list of players, but basically all those teams have a player on that respective team that performs very similar to our SS.

My point was it is all relative. There is no SUPER team out their and that is basically what you are crying for. It doesnt happen and the Yankees prove that every year they do not win it all.

The interesting thing about your list is that you have guys that are on teams that have worse records than the Cubs? Seems like just an SS doesnt really matter?

You can play this game with every position if you wanted to. SS is a weakness offensively for the Cubs, that is clear, but there are 7 other guys that bat on the team as well. It is not like we are sending Ronny and Izturis up to bat every inning of every game.

by HIGGY on Apr 25, 2007 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Look, I don't mean to be adversarial

but, of all qualified, single players at ANY position, there are exactly TWO players underperforming the combination of Cesar Izturis and Ronny Cedeno (Izturdeno). They are:

Gary Sheffield
Michael Young

Do you think either of those guys will be behind the Izturdeno after it's all said and done?

Now, lets broaden the equation and increase the player pool to include everyone who has had a minimum of 50 plate appearances. The players that are underperforming Izturdeno are:

Michael Young
Doug Mientkiewicz
Richie Sexson
Gary Sheffield
Alex Gordon
Josh Barfield
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Wilson Betemit
Brandon Inge
Ryan Shealy
Adam LaRoche
Gerald Laird

So, we've got 12 guys in all of baseball that are underperforming Izturdeno.

Young, Sexson and Sheffield are obvious abberations. Gordon and Kouzmanoff are rookies. LaRoche is somewhat of an abberation, but he won't be THAT bad. That leaves Mientkiewicz, Barfield, Betemit, Inge, Shealy and Laird. They aren't very good.

Look at the information I'm presenting you with. Izturdeno is the King of Suckiness. A suckiness that a winning team just can't afford to have on it's ballclub.

You've got Izturdeno and the pitchers spot everyday. That's two automatic outs. You just can't recover from that. I would seriously bat Zambrano or Marquis 8th and Izturdeno 9th on days they pitch --- they are that bad.

I don't want to beat a dead horse here, but it's like this: The Cubs won't win if Izturdeno is the shortstop. That's the fact, Jack.

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 25, 2007 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

OvErLoAd

You are now stat overloading terribly. And you are seeing into the future? - "The Cubs won't win if Izturdeno is the shortstop. That's the fact, Jack." Come on that is a silly statment to make 20 games into the season.

Lets not forget you are looking at 2 stats, batting average and OBP. Come on??? Your Izturdeno has the same amount of RBIs as Jeter?? What do you make of that? You are minipulating stats, looking at certain ones that will present a bad light on the players you want gone. At some point we just have to take the players we have and work with them.

You can throw names and all that stuff around after 20 games. I am not going to get into a stat war with you, it is just plan silly because the sample size is not great enough. We might as well get rid of Soriano as well because he is not performing to what he should be either.

Just an FYI, in 2003, the Cubs shortstop was Alex Gonzalez and his numbers were as follows:

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB
152 536 71 122 37 0 20 59 219 47 123 3

CS OBP SLG AVG
3 .295 .409 .228

Basically the same numbers as what we got now. Team sport man, team sport.

It is all relative. Dont need greatness at every position, need team unity and a group of guys that will pick each other up.

by HIGGY on Apr 25, 2007 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

At Any Rate

Lou seems to get it today. The Riot is leading off and playing shortstop.

Hallelujah!

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 25, 2007 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Izturdeno

knocks in 59 runs this year, I'll buy you front row tickets to any regular season Cubs game you want to go to.

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 25, 2007 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I will...

take you up on that...

by HIGGY on Apr 25, 2007 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

But if

Izturdeno does not knock in 59, you have to make your bcb signature line "brianp88 was right." ;)

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 25, 2007 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

this is a no brainer......

done deal.

by HIGGY on Apr 25, 2007 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you are going to lose...

though your payoff would be better if you somehow won.

But if someone offers you 10,000:1 odds on something with a 0% chance of happening, you don't put the $10 down. Care to guess how many times Izturis has topped 59 RBI? Once. And that was in his aberrantly strong 2004 season, when he got 62 RBI in 159 games.

Not only is he VERY unlikely to get 59 RBI even if he plays everyday, you have to consider that he's not going to play everyday.

by SouthernCub on Apr 25, 2007 9:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Izturdeno

Now that's funny. I think we need to make sure we keep referring to these guys this way.

"Don't think; it can only hurt the ball club."

by Jesse Guam on Apr 25, 2007 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully

The Riot's clutch, 2-out, bases loaded, 2 RBI hit knocked some sense into Piniella and he gives the job to The Riot, permanently.

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 25, 2007 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You would think right?

I think if Theriot continues to produce in the leadoff spot and plays well as SS, Lou can't help but see it...right? I mean, this is not Dusty Baker people.

Got Hebrew National?

by Kinky Reggae on Apr 25, 2007 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or........

The horrible base running error he made might hold him back.......

by HIGGY on Apr 25, 2007 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would hope not

as it stands right now, he has the game winning hit.

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 25, 2007 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Two For Five

for The Riot, with 2 RBI, 2 runs scored and zero strike-outs. Give that man a promotion!

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 25, 2007 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you are going to.....

toast to The Riot's stats, you have to toast to the guys you bashed in your original post:

"The guy with the obp skills (Murton) sits, while Floyd and Jones steal at-bats from him."

4-5 for Floyd 5 TBs, 2 RBIs, Zero K's.

Jones was 0-4, not much to say here.

Derosa 1-3, 1 RBI Zero Ks.

There is a reason they play 162 games, and not 20. Give some of these guys a chance.

by HIGGY on Apr 26, 2007 7:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is a bad argument...

There are absolutely zero offensive categories in which Izturis and Cedeno look good. Taking OBP and AVG aren't "cherry-picking" stats in which they are bad. It's just taking two of the MANY stats in which they are bad.

In terms of AVG, OBP, SLG, R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, and RBI, these guys are among the bottom of baseball throughout their careers. Izturis is ATROCIOUS offensively. At one point, he was a decent (not great) base stealer, but that was before the leg/hamstring problems. Cedeno has slightly more power and speed, but is still well below average in both categories.

by SouthernCub on Apr 25, 2007 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right....

We have Izturis for defensive purposes. We have Cedeno because he is young. We do not have them for their offensive numbers.

You guys have missed my point on this...all i am saying is that they are for the time being our SS, they are a weak link offensively yes, but teams do have those. And to say that these two are one of the reasons the Cubs are bad, makes no sense. We are 0-8 in 1 or 2 run games, that might have something to do with it...This was my point, you are singling out two players on a TEAM that has not perfromed well (as a team) to start the season.

by HIGGY on Apr 26, 2007 7:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Cubs being 0-8

in 1 or 2 run games is EXACTLY why having someone other than Izturdeno playing shortstop turns some of those losses into victories.

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 26, 2007 8:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK

I am done, this is a silly argument, you are going to blame two people (who play the same position) for 8 1-2 run losses. That is obsurd.

by HIGGY on Apr 26, 2007 8:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Please

re-read my post. I said SOME of the eight one and two run losses. Not all of them.

I don't want to overload you with stats, but I must point something out to you. VORP (which stands for value over replacement player)is a good measurment of how a ball player contributes to his team. I'd recommend reading about it here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VORP

You can find a players VORP rating here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204031

As you might imagine, here in the early going, Alex Rodriguez leads the world in VORP with an astonishing score of 24.8, meaning having him on your team, for the entire season means 24 more victories by having him play for you rather than a league average player.

Now, lets take a look at the Cubs.

Derrek Lee + 14
Aramis Ramirez + 6.5
Michael Barrett + 5.6
Mark DeRosa + 4.0
Ryan Theriot + 3.0
Carlos Zambrano + 2.1 (and this is an offensive stat!)
Cliff Floyd + 1.3
Jason Marquis + 1.3
Daryle Ward + 1.3
Alfonso Soriano + 0.8
Wade Miller + 0.2

Those are all of the Cubs who's offensive performances are better than the average player.

Now we get into the negative VORP players, where finding an average offensive replacement will help you win more games:

Angel Guzman -0.1
Felix Pie -0.4

Now, Ronny Cedeno and Cesar Izturis don't show up on the report for some reason, so we can compare their combined statistics with the stats of someone that has perfomed at the same level. The closest guy I could find is Brandon Inge.

Inge: .134 ave, 3 HR, 6 RBI 9 Runs, 2 SB
Izturdeno: .151 ave, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 5 runs, 2 SB

Inge's VORP is negative 5.0

Izturdeno's VORP must be right around there.

By my math, over the course of the season, Ryan Theriot, by virtue of his + 3 VORP is worth 8 wins over playing Izturdeno at shortstop.

I don't know what else to say. Believe me, the team is better off with Izturdeno finding a home somewhere else besides Clark & Addison.

If you have a positive VORP, your performance is better than the average player at your position.

If you have a negative

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 26, 2007 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Correction

The VORP rating is creating more runs than an average replacement player, not victories. Sorry about that.

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 26, 2007 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I checked your VORP page...

This is what I came up with and it might solve ALL your problems!

Call the Boston Red Sox up and tell them you want to trade Izturis for Manny Ramirez. Explain to them that Izturis VORP is only -2.5 while Ramirez's is -3.2. I am sure they will do it in a heart beat. You could call the Dodgers as well because Furcal is at -3.2 as well. Either way we would get another failing outfielder or another failing SS.

(Cedeno is -3.5, Izzy is -2.5)

by HIGGY on Apr 26, 2007 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Use Career VORP

and you'll get a different picture, my friend :)

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 26, 2007 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You have lost me...

You go from this season to career. You cannot do this. Keep it to the season, or career. You pull stats for one player from this year and compare it to Career stats of another? Come on, you are manipulating the stats in your favor.

If you want to pull the career stuff out, what career does Theriot have?

by HIGGY on Apr 26, 2007 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Alrighty

Theriot's Career Numbers:

At-Bats: 203
Average: .320
On Base %: .387
Home Runs: 3
RBI: 22
OPS .850
BB: 20
K: 27

Ronny Cedeno:

At-Bats: 644
Average: .245
On Base %: .275
Home Runs: 9
RBI: 51
OPS: .618
BB: 23
K: 128!

Theriot is superior in every category. Ronny hits a home run in .0139% of his at bats. Theriot hits one in .0147% of his at bats, the closest category we have here. Ronny gets an RBI once in every .0791% of his at-bats. Theriot gets one in .1083% of his at bats.

Obviously, neither of these players are power hitters, but Theriot's BATTING AVERAGE is 45 points higher than Cedeno's ON BASE PERCENTAGE. Ronny's .275 on base percentage is nothing short of horrendous.

Theriot has crossed home plate 47 times, to Cedeno's 66, a differential of 29%, despite the fact that Theriot has taken 69% percent fewer at-bats than Cedeno.

Look at the strike-outs to walks ratio. Cedeno goes down on strikes in 19.8 percent of his at-bats. Theriot whiffs 13.3 percent of the time.

Here is the most alarming stat: Theriot drawn only three fewer walks than Cedeno, despite having 441 fewer at-bats.

If that doesn't prove that Theriot is highly superior to Cedeno, nothing will.

Then we have Izturis' career numbers. He's been around longer so we have a much larger sample size to judge him:

At-Bats: 2486
Batting average: .258
On Base Percentage: .294
Home Runs: 11
RBI: 193
OPS: .629
BB: 126!
K: 264

How can you live with someone taking a walk in only 5% of hit at-bats? If you're hitting only .258, you've got to walk more than that. Not to mention the fact that he hits a home run in only .004% of his at-bats.

Izturdeno sucks. There is no getting around it.

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 26, 2007 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did you call Boston Yet?

I officially will no longer respond to these stat filled posts. They are rambling and jumping all over, and i cannot follow any more.

by HIGGY on Apr 26, 2007 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You asked me

"If you want to pull the career stuff out, what career does Theriot have?"

So, I posted Theriot's career numbers and compared them to Izturdeno's. I'm not sure what it is that you're not following.

But, to placate your inquiry, I did call Boston.

Me: Hey Theo, what's up? I see that Manny Ramirez is off to a horrible start this year. By coincidence, so is Ronny Cedeno and Cesar Izturis. Would you take a two for one trade?

Theo Epstein: We'll, Manny Ramirez has a career ops of 1.006 compared to Izturdeno's .626, so I'm afraid that doesn't make sense to me.

Me: Well, would you give me a couple of batting practice balls and some of Francona's chewing tabacco for Izturdeno?

Theo Epstein: If you throw in a player to be named later, that might be a fair deal.

Me: Consider it done.

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 26, 2007 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

apologies

for my smarmy attitude.

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 26, 2007 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah....

No worries...

Like I said you have lost me, and I cannot follow any more...sorry I just cant. You use this year VORP (izturdeno), so do I (with Manny), then you say go to career (for Manny).

What is good for the goose is good for the gander. This is the problem when discussing stats and all that good stuff, it is too easy to manipulate to support your argument.

(only reason i am responding is because i do not want you to think i was upset by your smarmy attitude! - All good)

We agree to disagree.

by HIGGY on Apr 26, 2007 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's all good, man

We'll agree to disagree on this one, but we're both rooting for the same team here.

Believe me when I say this, I want Cedeno and Izturis to succeed. I really do. Anything that makes the Cubs win, I'm all for it.

Peace.

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 26, 2007 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

To

much love here, I liked you two better fighting it out. )G

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Apr 26, 2007 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am

Chanting LET GO CUBS!!! in my office right now.

by HIGGY on Apr 26, 2007 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh that's

you, keep it down I am trying to work here.

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Apr 26, 2007 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those Numbers are great!!

Awesome job researching it. You want to play the short term game, i will. A-Rod leads the league with your VORP, what place are the Yankee's in??? Your VORP stat does not seem to be helping there? Have the Yankees won anything since he has been there? Hmmmm...No.

You can fill the boards with stats all you want, but there is a reason they play the game. There is a reason the Cardinals won it last year and we did not. There is a reason the Tigers didnt win it last year even though they had a better record than the Cardinals. Teams dont lose because of one player. If you want that, go watch golf or tennis. Baseball is not an individual sport, sorry but it is not. You proved that with your VORP stat on A-Rod.

As far as re-reading your post, you wanted The Riot to replace DeRosa didnt you? And we need to find another SS right?

You might be right about the team being better off without them, but there is no way of telling that until someone else is in there.

"Action needs to be taken to overhaul the roster immediately, before it's too late. Too late is creeping up quickly."
- we did, we have two new outfielders, which you apparently dont like, we have a new second basemen that you dont like. We have 3/4 new starting pitchers, which you have not commented on.

We got our overhaul. Now we have to give it sometime to let the pieces work. It is just silly to want to redue the team after 20 games, seriously. If the Cubs won those 8 1-2 run games, and your tandum had the numbers they still have, you would not have cared or noticed it. You would be all good and happy.

by HIGGY on Apr 26, 2007 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

VORP

takes an entire season to play itself out. Yes, I would rather have Theriot play over DeRosa -- but even better, I like having Theriot playing over Izturdeno. I'm glad Lou is viewing Theriot as a shortstop now -- something he had not done this year until yesterday.

You write that IF the Cubs has won those 8 1-2 run games, I'd wouldn't have noticed. To that, I reply that I certainly would have noticed, the law of averages will catch up eventually, and the guys with a negative VORP will eventually cause you to lose games. Fortunately, in this case, it's not a case of IF, the FACTS are that the Cubs LOST those games, in part because Izturdeno was out there stinking up the joint.

Please don't take my argument personal. I mean no ill will towards you. I disagree that the Cubs have time to "let the pieces work". The statistical career performances of both Cedeno and Izturis suggest that they are an albatross that the Cubs need to rid themselves of -- there's no two ways about it.

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 26, 2007 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No ill will...

No worries man, obviously i would not take it personal! Message boards are for these discussions, and to be honest i feel we are having a good one. Hopefully you do not take this personal either.

This whole discussion is based on IFs, you started by claiming IF we replace our players, then this will happen. We dont know this, we really dont. There are IFs all over the board and this discussion. It is part of the discussion, even here "and the guys with a negative VORP will eventually cause you to lose games." - that is an IF as well.

I have not stated this and i probably should have, i am not in disagreement about Theriot playing short (allbeit the defensive aspect will suffer), I started out defending Derosa for playing 2B. I would not mind seeing Theriot playing short assuming his hot bat continues and he continues to perform. But i have a feeling if he starts to hit a slump his supporters are going to end up crying for his head as well. It is a tough situation. for the mean time, i am with you on Theriot playing SS, no problems there at all.

I disagree that the Cubs have time to "let the pieces work". - Diagree, this is why teams dont trade until June. They let the dust settle. it is a long season. a 10 game win streak in August can do alot more for a team than a 10 game win streak in April (i am not discounting wins in April, simply stating that a 10 game win streak is a huge confidence booster to a team close to the playoffs).

by HIGGY on Apr 26, 2007 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

in addition

what would the Yankees record be without A-Rod in the line-up?

One day, the dream will come true.

by brianp88 on Apr 26, 2007 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You just accused

me of playing the what IF, and now you do it?

by HIGGY on Apr 26, 2007 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Brian....

Brian, I feel your pain. I really do. You can't just cut guys three weeks into a season though. It's just not how people make personnel decisions in any sport. Now, personally I do somewhat agree about the shortstop situation. Yes, I would send Cedeno back to AAA, or trade him. Yes, I would sit Izturis for a week at least, in favor of Theriot. And personally, I'd have Murton, Patterson, and a pitching prospect over to the National for Felipe Lopez yesterday. Trust me, the deal works for everybody.

And please know that Lou is not blameless. Cliff Floyd and Jacque Jones in the 2 hole? Is this amateur night? And what happened to moving a runner along in close games? Guess chronically getting picked off base, and terrible baserunning. If Soriano is gimpy enough to move to LF, why is he still hitting leadoff, cause he sure as hell isn't going to be stealing bases. It's been bad fundamental baseball for two weeks, and I'm looking squarely at him.

Here's the thing though. It's a completely overhauled team. Badly so, but still. You've got, and I'm mean got to give any ballclub 45 days to figure out what works and what doesn't. Let a new manager figure out how to best utilize his resources. There's talent here, and I suspect some changes looming. Personally, I'd give them this next road trip at least before you write them off.

by Damen Jackson on Apr 25, 2007 10:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

One thing I think Lou has to do is get Matt Murton some consistent playing time. The team was doing far better before Murton became anchored to the bench. And that includes playing him against righthanders.

Seems Lou has already forgotten some of the things he did with lineups in spring training, which actually worked.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 25, 2007 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love that kid...

I really do. But with Soriano anchored in Left, he's as useful as half a dollar bill. Send him someplace now, while you can still get value. Maybe get yourself a productive, consistent top of the order guy back.

by Damen Jackson on Apr 25, 2007 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What?

Please give me an idea of who you actually believe Murton would bring in return. What has he done over the course of his brief career to lead to the conclusion that he's anything more than a decent OBP guy with limited power, average to below-average ability in LF and does not consistently make hard contact?

Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. -- Lee Constantine Elia, 1983.

by krummy12 on Apr 25, 2007 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keep Murton

For three reasons:

You're right he hasn't done much yet and will not get much in return for him.
Trade Jones instead and get another reliever so we can send Ohman where he belongs, my Sunday afternoon softball league (we need another arm).
Murton came over in the Nomar deal and I believe that Red Sox won the Series because of the deal so maybe the Cubs will (eventually) win the series with a key component of that team being Murton (because he came over in that deal).

In Superstition,

by TheHawk5 on Apr 25, 2007 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are Right

He has done nothing to convince YOU that he is anything more than a decent OBP guy with limited power, average to below-average ability in LF and does not consistently make hard contact.

Fortunately for Murton, he doesn't have to convince you (under all of your names - like BlueMike) and people that actually understand something about young players and the growth profile, the meaning of the words average to below average and "consistently make hard contact" and the advantage of a cheap young player that gets on base at a good rate, makes contact, shows growing power, has good to very good speed, works hard, and fields with statistics that show that he is one of the top three fielders in the league at his position are good acquistions.

by frustratedfan on Apr 26, 2007 12:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Quick question.....

I know (and respect) that you like this young player but is it possible that Murton may be best suited as a team's 4th outfielder?

"I guess we will have to agree to disagree on this." Sue369

by timeforachange on Apr 26, 2007 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

by HIGGY on Apr 25, 2007 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was.......

.......agreeing to Al's post.

by HIGGY on Apr 25, 2007 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Too Much For Lopez

Murton, Patterson and a Pitching Prospect for Lopez is too much. Murton and a Pitching Prospect and a pitching suspect (O'Malley or Walrond) would probably get it done. And that's a trade that should be made. That being said, Murton's perfect for the Nationals 2007 stadium (RFK) but may not work as well in the new park.

by frustratedfan on Apr 25, 2007 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think...

... I'd give them Patterson, maybe asking for a (lesser) pitching prospect along with Lopez. Patterson still has a lot of work to do on his defense, and with the roster constructed the way it is, he's unlikely to break into the lineup for another two years.

Lopez could help right now.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 25, 2007 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

trading for Lopez

Al,

Do you think Washington would go for a straight trade of Patterson for Lopez?? Or do you mean Murton plus Patterson getting a pitching prospect back as well which makes more sense . . .

by TORCO on Apr 25, 2007 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's just an idea...

but I assure you that you're not going to dump Les Walrond off on Bowden. You want value, you give value. Murton and Patterson would be in their starting lineup tomorrow. And likely productive for at least the next four years, at less total than what Lopez is being paid this season alone. That's how you pry a good player away from a ballclub with no real motivation to do an in-season trade.

by Damen Jackson on Apr 25, 2007 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll bet the Cubs

have one of the worse batting averages with men in scoring position.

DeRosa's done fine btw.

SORIANO! YESSSSSSSS! JIMBO!!!

by CubFaninCA on Apr 25, 2007 10:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

They're in the middle of the pack

See here.

by Wreckard on Apr 25, 2007 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You don't have to bet...

You can look it up. I use Espn.com. In reality, with runners in scoring position, the Cubs rank 5th in the NL in BA: .258. The league average is .240. They rank 10th, however, in runs scored: 64. The league average is 66. They rank 13th in OPS: .662. League average is .715.

They played hard. They did their best. Move on. Their whole life isn't out in that field. It's their job. It's not an obsession.

by Jeff Pico on Apr 25, 2007 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

There are no trades coming

There are rarely trades made in April or May. Therefore, it is foolish of Cub fans to contemplate moves that they will magically transform a 7-13 dog into a contender so very early in the season.

Plus, Jim Hendry is a dead man walking. Therefore, he won't admit defeat until the Cubs are mathematically out of it in 2007.

The Cub offense - "I'll never be your feast or famine..."

by BlueMike on Apr 25, 2007 10:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Hendry

I don't see Hendry as a dead man walking at all. Sure, I wouldn't bet on his tenure beyond this season, but I don't see how that translates into him as a lame duck.

If he can pull off a trade, he absolutely will. He knows he can't sit on his hands or his fate will be decided.

As for April/May trades. It is certainly interesting that there are so few early season trades. I wouldn't be shocked to see that change though, I definitely see a change in how off season moves were made this year, so that could very well translate into a change in how things happen midseason. Also, for what it's worth, Bowden and Hendry are both inclined towards trades so who knows.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Apr 25, 2007 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Theriot should be the everyday

second baseman. Hendry made another gaffe, with this long-term deal to De Rosa, who hasn't done enough to deserve it. One good season does not make a career. Theriot should bat in the #2 hole. Soriano is going to have to lead off, for various reasons.

De Rosa is another 'failed' free agent signing, similar to Jacque Jones. 1-dimentional players, who just go up to the plate hacking, damn the situation. There are too many guys on this team with similar, limited skill-sets. These guys (including Daryl Ward) are all AL DH'ers, not NL position players)

Why do you think Lou is now getting De Rosa out of the game ASAP? He's not happy with him either. But, like Jones, like Floyd, like De Rosa, these are guys, for whatever reason, Hendry thinks can mesh together. They are the same damn guy, over and over. It's now very clear that Lou has limited options.

Hendry is a lame duck. Lou Piniela is the only guy that's going to return under new management. Looking at the record, Hendry hasn't earned another chance under new ownership -- isn't that obvious?

by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Apr 25, 2007 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Already a contender

The rest of the Central isn't running away, and we're not really playing that poorly.

by TheHawk5 on Apr 25, 2007 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with the first half of that statement.

"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Apr 25, 2007 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

To DeRosa's credit

he does have 4 homers and The Riot has none, but I do wish Theriot to be our everyday 2nd baseman. I think Murton should play everyday in AAA. He is still growing as a player and what Lou is doing is only going to stunt his growth.

by cubfaninSTL on Apr 25, 2007 10:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Murton

What? The guy is 25 and has a .300 average in over 600 MLB at bats and you want to send him down?

If the Cubs can't play him regularly, they should trade him to someone who will. I agree with Al that Murton was a lot better when he played every day and that Piniella has to get him into the lineup more often. Or they need to trade him.

He has nothing left to prove in the minors.

"Hello again, everybody. Harry Caray from Wrigley Field on a beautiful day for baseball."

by danimal15 on Apr 25, 2007 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fully agree

I hate to say it, but I'd trade Murton. If Soriano is the Cub LF, that definitely puts a squeeze on Murton.

The RF traffic jam of Murton/Jones/Floyd also puts a squeeze on Theriot, since it effectively prevents DeRosa from playing any OF time.

One way or the other, Murton needs to be playing everyday at the ML level. Letting him rot on the bench is a waste of his talent and his value (either as trade bait or statistically) for the Cubs.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Apr 25, 2007 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really

like Matt a lot but I hate seeing him sitting on the bench. I hope they trade him to a team who will use him every day. It breaks my heart to say that too.

TheEman is jealous of my sigs.

by sue369 on Apr 25, 2007 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Want versus Must

I don't "want" to send Murton down, but he's the obvious choice based on roster construction. Jones and Floyd have contracts that ensure that they are on the team and cannot be traded. Soriano is the "big star" in the OF and it would be silly to trade or release him. Pie is the only CF in the bunch. That leaves Murton. He has options available. He has a contract that means that he can be moved at later in the year. He's got to be sent down. Its the only option (other than the Cubs admitting that JOnes or Floyd was a big mistake and taking a big hit by releasing either of them, and that's not going to happen).

by frustratedfan on Apr 25, 2007 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am sorry

you paint such a bleak picture of the Cubs. I guess after so many years of frustration many of us just expect the worst. This year I personally am trying hard to stick to being optimistic. I point out the play of Theriot. Note that he has been in 19 of 20 games. He has 51 AB so far, 7th on the team. I have said before that with continued good play, Lou will not be able to put him down. Nor do I think Lou is the type of manager to succumb to playing someone because they make more money. As for the bullpen, you left off Cotts, and when he was up Guzman did a nice job. Eyre and Howry will come around, they are proven vets. We have our star FB Lee with no HR's, as well as Soriano. Again proven vets that by years end will be within 10% of their career average numbers. The starting staff outside of Miller has looked very good. I do not think anyone with any kind of baseball prowess thinks that Z will continue his ways. You know he will turn it around, I'll bet real soon. Yes the big guns have not produced the way we all are expecting them to as of yet, but when they do, I look for this team to get on a roll.

"The worst thing for a septic field is water"

by wild bill on Apr 25, 2007 12:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

My only concern at this point is that this team needs to turn things around soon. What I worry most about at this point is that losing can send a team into a tailspin.

The home record, the failure to win close games, etc. Those are psychology issues, not talent issues, and if they don't get fixed soon, they are only going to get worse.

6 games out/under 500 isn't good, but it isn't the end of the world. But if we play the next 20 games like this, it will be pretty tough to salvage the season.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Apr 25, 2007 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another 20

like the first 20 puts us at 14-26. That would of course not be good. If over the next 20 you break even your at 17-23. More importantly if you are at the later, is there improvement? Is the team starting to gell some. If there are signs of these things, even after 40 games being 6 games below, there is still hope. This team I think is very capable of running off a nice winning streak. And they will. You would be susprised how close if not over .500 you can be if you run even a 6-7 game winning streak.

"The worst thing for a septic field is water"

by wild bill on Apr 25, 2007 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What is a winning streak?

So far this year, we have won two games in a row once. Once. We have almost gone the first month of the season without a winning streak. We have yet to win a close game. We have lost 70 percent of our games at home. I hate being such a downer, because no one wants to cheer and go crazy and enjoy victory more than me. And I guess waiting the entire winter for THIS is why I am so pissed.

I certainly hope that everyone who clings to hope is right. I really do. Obviously I know this team is going to get better, because it's impossible to get worse. OK, that's looking at the glass half full. But "eventually we're going to get going" doesn't work for me, because if we get going in the middle of May when we are 12 games out and firmly entrenched in last place, who cares? I don't care how many second-half comebacks the Astros have made, the Cubs are not going to jump five teams and make up that many games in the standings, even if they have 140 games left in which to do it.

"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Apr 25, 2007 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are

spot on. Look at it this way, when things get turned around, victory will be that much sweeter. I am not sure how many times I walked away from the TV last night proclaiming "I am done with this team". I agree also with you about waiting all winter, the promise of spring training and all, and the start of the season is abysmal. I am just holding out hope that all the good feelings I had about this team still will happen.

"The worst thing for a septic field is water"

by wild bill on Apr 25, 2007 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

To further

my thoughts, yes I am still excited about this year. We have youngsters to watch grow. Hill is fun to watch pitch, Pie already is an exciting ballplayer to watch. I wish more people on this site would refer not to how awful a player is, but offer idea's and good dialog on how to improve the team, which some do. But after 20 games I for one am not going to give up. One point you do make that I agree with some is how the team is constructed. Not sure of the decision to carry a pinch hitter only, along with another similiar player in Floyd. Both left handed with limited fielding skills. But I have to believe that the manager will begin to learn his players better, what or what not they can do. Couple this with some roster adjustments and yes this can turn around real soon.

"The worst thing for a septic field is water"

by wild bill on Apr 25, 2007 12:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I am excited about this year, too...

Yes, Izturis and Cedeno are absolutely awful, combined with the Pitcher they give us 2 automatic outs in the lineup...Zambrano should hit ahead of either when he pitches...Okay, but who expected Izturis to be this horrible? It was a reasonable decision to go with Izturis at SS given his defense. especially after the horsecrap defense we had up the middle last year. I am NOT a Hendry fan, but this decision was okay...the bad decision was including Cedeno on the roster--that's easy to fix and I hope that they do it soon.

Lee,Aramis, Barrett, who's arguing with that?

Soriano is not a leadoff hitter but if he hits 30+ HRs he becomes a pretty damn productive one...He hasn't shown it yet, okay drop him down in the lineup then...The lineup today was decent with Floyd batting 2nd and Theriot leading off...

What disappointed me most was riding into this season with Eyre and Howry. I though both should have gone at the deadline last year to so we could sell high before their collapse...Howry is showing me that he's not quite dead...Eyre is toast, please step in Mr. Cotts and Mr. Ohman, it's time to play like men.

Top to bottom this roster is much better than 2006...Soriano has had a horrible start and he has to produce...when he gets it going (not if) we are going to run off some wins...

by DudeVf11 on Apr 25, 2007 11:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs